Math 329: Probability

Homework 01B
Hanadi Jusufovic

Problem 5: Acme Analytics hires 50% of its analysts from School A, 30% from School B, and 20% from
School C. On average, 2% of recruits from School A fail their drug test, as do 3% from School B and 5%
from School C. (a) What is the probability a randomly chosen hire fails the drug test? (b) Given a new hire
fails the drug test, what is the chance they are from School A?

P (A) = 0.5
P (B) = 0.3
P (C) = 0.2
P (F |A) = 0.02
P (F |B) = 0.03
P (F |C) = 0.05

a) P (randomly chosen hire fails the drug test) = P (F |A)P (A) + P (F |B)P (B) + P (F |C)P (C) = 0.02 ∗
0.5 + 0.03 ∗ 0.3 + 0.05 ∗ 0.2 = 0.029

P (F |A)P (A) 0.01

b) P (A|F ) = 0.029 = 0.029 = 0.345

Problem 6: A box contains fifteen billiard balls labeled 1 to 15. Four balls are drawn at random without
replacement. What is the probability the smallest number drawn is the 8 ball?

(70)∗(73)∗1
P (smallest is 8)= = 0.0256
(15
4)

Problem 7: Suppose you roll two dice until you get double-sixes (where the sum of the dice is 12). What
is the probability you achieve double-sixes in your first five tries?

Probability that we do not role a double six in any role = 3536

Probability that we do not role a double six in 5 tries = ( 35
36 )
5
35 5
P(we role a double six in 5 tries) = 1 − ( 36 )

Problem 8: Nikita is taking a multiple choice test and knows the correct answer with probability 0.80. If
she does not know the answer, she will guess at one of the five possible choices. (a) What is the probability
Nikita gets the first answer correct? (b) Given she got the first answer correct, what is the probability Nikita
knew the answer?

P (K) = 0.8
P (K c ) = 0.2
P (C|K c ) = 0.2
P (C|K) = 1

1
a) P (C) = P (C|K c )P (K c ) + P (C|K)P (K) = 0.2 ∗ 0.2 + 1 ∗ 0.8 = 0.84
b) P (K|C) = P (C|K)P
P (C)
(K)
= 1∗0.8
0.84 = 0.95