SUHASNU DEY

INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
Question 1

a) Outcome of events (1,4) (4,1) (2,3) (3,2)

Let A be the event that sum of spots on the two dice will be 0.5

()() ()()
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
Probability of A, P (A) ¿ + + +
6 6 6 6

¿ ( 361 )+( 361 )+( 361 )+( 361 )= 364 = 19

b) Let B be the event that difference of spots on thetwo dices will be 2

Outcome of events ( 6 , 4) (5,3) , (4,2) (3,1) , (4,6) , (3,5) , (2,4) , (1,3)

() ()()() ()()() ()
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 2
Probability of B, P (B) = + + + + + + = = =
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 9

Question 2

a) Let A be the event that there will be 2 or more consecutive heads

Outcome of events (H H T), (T H H), (H H H)

1 1 1 3
Probability of A, P (A) = + + =
8 8 8 8

b) Let B be the event that there will be at least 02 heads

Outcome of event (H H T), (T H H), (H T H), (H H H)

Probability of B, P (B) = ( 18 )+( 18 )+( 18 )+( 18 )= 48 = 12 =0.5

Question 3

3 Hats, 4 shirts, 4 trousers, 2 shoes

A man can be dressed in 3 * 4* 4* 2 = 96 ways

Question 4

Total English alphabets = 26

Total vowels: 05 (a , e , i , o , u)
SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
nd
a) No of 04 letter words (provided 2 letter is vowel) = 26*5*26*26 = 87880
b) No of 04 letter word (exactly one vowel) = 5 C 1∗4∗213=185220
c) No of 04 letters words (at least one vowel)

01 vowel + 02 vowel + 03 vowel + 04 vowel

4 2 2 3 4 0
4 C 1∗5∗21 + 4 C 2∗5 ∗21 + 4 C 3∗5 ∗21+ 4 C 4∗5 ∗20 =3966895

Question 5

a) No of 07 digit telephone numbers that can be formed =

6
9∗10∗10∗10∗10∗10∗10=9∗10 =9000000

(Total digits 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9)

b) No of distinct digits = 9∗9∗8∗7∗6∗5∗4=544320

Question 6

No of states in electronic device = 2100

Question 7

10 !
No of customer choices = 10 C 2= =252
5 !∗5!

Question 8

Questionnaire = 10 Questions

No of outcomes = 2 (yes , no)

a) No of ways in which a questionnaire can be answered = 210=1024

b) No of ways in which a questionnaire can be answered with 5 yeses and 5 noes =
10 !
10 C 5∗5C 1= =252
5!∗5 !

Question 9

No of ways in which a questionnaire can be answered with 4 yeses , 4 noes & 2 no options

10!
∗6 !
= 4 !∗6 !
10 C 4∗6 C 4∗2 C 0= ∗1=3150
4 !∗2!

Question 10
SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
Condition: 02 cards are drawn sequentially without replacement

a) Let A be the event that two cards drawn are both aces

4
∗3
Probability of A, P (A) = 52
=0.0045
51

b) Let B be the event that 02 cards drawn are both spades

13
∗12
Probability of B, P (B) = 52
=0.0588
51

c) Let C be the event that two cards drawn are of the same denomination

4∗13
∗12
Probability of C, P(C) = 52
=0.235
51

d) Let D be the event that two cards drawn are of the same suit

13∗4
∗3
Probability of D, P (D) = 52
=0.0588
51

Question 11

Standard deck = 52 cards

Sample size = 5

a) Let A be the event that third card drawn will be ace

1
∗1
52
∗4
51
Probability of A, P (A) = ∗1
50
∗1
49
=1.28E-08
48

b) Let B be the event that third card drawn will be spade

SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
1
∗1
52
∗13
51
Probability of B, P (B) = ∗1
50
∗1
49
=4.168E-08
48

Question 12

Democrats 6

Republicans 4

Size of committee 3

a) Let A be the event that committee of 03 contains 02 democrats and 1 republican

6!
∗4 !
2 !∗4 !
Probability of A, P (A) = ∗3 !∗7!
6 C 2∗4 C 1 1!∗2 !
= =0.5
10 C 3 10 !

b) Let B be the event that committee of 03 contains more democrats than republican

Event outcomes (2D 1R ) (3D 0R)

6 C 2∗4 C 1 6 C 3
Probability of B, P (B) = + =0.67
10 C 3 10 C 3

Question 13

4 Red Cards, 4 Black cards

Let A b e the event that Sebastian correctly identified at least 03 of the red cards

Event outcomes (3 Red, 1 Black), (4 red, 0 Black)

4 C 3∗4 C 1 4 C 4
Probability of A, P (A) = + =0.243
8C4 8C 4

Question 14

8 Good , 02 Defective items

Sample Size 5

a) Let A be the event of finding at least 01 defective item

SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
Event outcome ( 01 D , 04 G) , (02 D , 03 G)

2C 1∗8 C 4 2 C 2∗8 C 3
Probability of A , P (A) = + =0.77
10 C 5 10 C 5

b) Let B be the event of finding both defective items

Event outcome (02 D , 03 G)

2C 2∗8 C 3
Probability of B , P(B) = =0.22
10 C 5

Question 15

Let A be the event that poker hand contains exactly 3 aces

And B be the event that poker hand contains at least 02 aces

P ( BA )=P(A ∩B)/ P ( B )
Event space A (AAAXX)

Event space B (AAXXX) (AAAXX) (AAAAX)

A ∩ B=( AAAXX)

4 C 2∗48 C 3+ 4 C 3∗48 C 2+ 4 C 4∗48 C 1

P ( B )= =0.041684
52 C 5

4 C 3∗48 C 2
P ( A ∩ B )= =0.001736
52 C 5

P ( BA )=P AP∩( BB) =0.0416

Question 16

Let A be the event that poker hand contains exactly 2 kings

And B be the event that poker hand contains exactly 2 aces

SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability

Desired probability P ( BA )=P( A ∩B)/ P( B)

Sample space A (KKXXX)

Sample space B (AAXXX)

A ∩ B=¿

4 C 2∗48 C 3
P ( B )=
52 C 5

4 C 2∗4 C 2∗44 C 1
P ( A ∩ B )=
52 C 5

4 C 2∗4 C 2∗44 C 1
P(A/B) = =0.015
4 C 2∗48C 3

Question 17

Urn 1 4 Red , 2 White

Urn II 2 White , 3 white

Condition: 01 ball is transferred from urn I to urn II & then 01 ball is drawn from urn II

Let P (A) be the probability of drawing red ball from urn I

P (B) be the probability of drawing red ball from urn II

P (B) = P(B/A) *P(A) + P(B/A’)*P(A’)

P (A) = 4/6 = 2/3

P (A’) = 2/6 = 1/3

P (B/A) = 4/7, P (B/A’) = 3/7

P (B) = P (B/A) *P (A) + P (B/A’)*P (A’) = 4/7*2/3 + 3/7 *1/3 = 11/21

Question 18

Urn 1 4 Red, 2 White

Urn II 2 White, 3 white

Condition: 02 balls are transferred from urn I to urn II & then 01 ball is drawn from urn II
SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
P (A) be the probability that ball drawn from urn II will be red

E1 = event of drawing 02 red balls from urn I

E2 = event of drawing 02 white balls from urn I

E3 = event of drawing 1 red ball & 01 white ball from urn I

P ( EA1 )= 58 , P ( EA2 )= 38 , P ( EA3 )= 48

4C2 2 2C 2 1 4 C 1∗2C 1 8
P ( E1 )= = , P ( E 2 )= = , P ( E 3) = =
6c2 5 6C2 5 6C 2 15

P ( A )=P ( EA1 )∗P ( E 1) + P ( EA2 )∗P ( E 2) +¿

5 3 4
∗2 ∗1 ∗8
8 8 8
¿ + + =0.5916
5 5 15

Question19

Fair coin toss ten times, given 10 tosses produced 5 heads

a) P ( BA )= P (PA( ∩B
B)
)
, Given P ( B )=
10 C 5
2 10

- −−−−−−−−−¿

½ 9C4/2^9

1
∗9 C 4
2 9C 4
P ( A ∩ B )= 9
= 10
2 2

9 C 4 10
∗2
( )
10
A 2 9 C 4 126
P = = = =0.5
B 10C 5 10C 5 252

b) Exactly 3 of the 1st 5 tosses resulted in head

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _
SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
½ ½ ½ 7C2/2^7

1
∗1
2
∗1
2
∗7 C 2
2 7C2
P ( A ∩ B )= 7
= 10
2 2

7 C 2 10
∗2
( )
10
A 2 7C 2 1
P = = = =0.083
B 10 C 5 10 C 5 12

Question 20

_____

P(A) = Probability that 5 tosses produced at least 2 heads

H + 1 head , 2 head , 3 heda , 4 head

1
( 4 C 4 15
P ( A )= ∗ 4 c 1+4 c 2+ 4 C 3+ 4 =
2 2 32 )
P ( B ) : Probability that 5 tosses resulted ∈exactly 2 heads

1
∗4 C 1
2 4 4
P ( A ∩ B )= = 5=
2 4
2 32

4
∗32
P ( )
B
A
=
P ( A ∩B ) 32
P ( A )❑
=
15
=
4
15

Question 21

Let P (A) be the probability of selecting male

P (A) = 45/100

Let P (B) be the probability of selecting democrat

SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
20
P (B) = 45/100 ; P ( A ∩ B )= , P (A / B)=P( A ∩B)/ P( B)=20 /45=4 /9
100

Question 22

The probability that GG would produce a gold coin is 1

The probability that SS would produce a gold coin is 0

The probability that GS would produce a gold coin is ½

By Bayes rule the conditional probability that the choose box is GG , given we have observed a gold coin
is

P¿¿

Question 23

a) Probability of getting exactly 2 sixes , given exactly 2 aces

2
6 C 2∗4 C 2∗4
Required probability is= 6
=¿0.0308
6

b) Probability of getting exactly 2 sixes , given at least 02 aces

( 6 C 2∗4 C 2∗4 2 ) + ( 6 C 3∗3 C 2∗4 )+ ( 6C 4∗2 C 2 )

Required probability is= 6
=¿ 0.036
6

Question 24

Urn : 5 Red , 5 White

Sample Size : 05

Let A be the event that there are at least 2 red balls in the sample

Let B be the event that there are exactly 3 red balls in the sample

P ( BA )= P (PB∩( A )A )
SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
Event space A (RRWWW , RRRWW , RRRRW , RRRRR)

Event space B ( RRRWW)

5 C 3∗5 C 2
A ∩ B=RRRWW , P ( A ∩B )= = 100/252
10 C 5

5 C 2∗5 C 3+5 C 3∗5 C 2+5 C 4∗5C 1+ 5C 5

P ( A )= = 226/252
10 C 5

P ( BA )= P (PB∩( A )A ) = 100/226 = 0.04

Question 25

Probability that 01 light will malfunction = 0.1

Probability that 20 light malfunction = 0.1^20

Probability that all 20 lights will glow = [1 – 0.1^20]

Question 26

Probability that operation malfunction = 0.01

Probability that operation not malfunction: 0.99

No of items : 10

a) Probability that none of the operation malfunction on exactly 8 of the items

8 2
10 C 8∗( 0.99 ) ∗( 0.01 ) = 0.004

b) Proability that none of the operation malfunction on at least 8 of the items

8 2 9 10
10 C 8∗( 0.99 ) ∗0.01 +10 C 9∗0.99 ∗( 0.1 ) +10 C 10∗( 0.99 ) =0.999886

Question 27

Probability of knowing correct answer, P (C) = 0.8

Probability of Guess, P (G) = 0.2

a) Exactly 8 of the 10 answers = 0.8^8*0.2^2 = 0.006711

b) At least 7 of the 10 question
SUHASNU DEY
INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE, NEW DELHI, Master Black Belt 2018

Exercises in Probability
(TC, 3G) , (8C,2G) , (9C , 1G) , (10C , 0G)
7 3 8 2 9 10
¿ 7 C 3∗0.8 ∗0.2 +8 C 2∗0.8 ∗0.2 +9 C 1∗0.8 ∗0.2+ 0.8 =0.595608