SOLUTIONS TO ASSIGNMENT #1

1. Solution:
Let A ----the event that the man will alive
B----the event that his wife be alive
A and B are independent events, so do A and B
(i) P(A B) = P(A)P(B) = 0.8 0.9 = 0.72
(ii) P(A B) = P(A)P( B) = 0.8 0.1 = 0.08
(iii) P( A B) = P( A )P(B) = 0.2 0.9 = 0.18
(iv) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A)P(B) = 0.8 + 0.9 0.8 0.9 = 0.98
2. Solution:

Let A is the event of a defective item getting through #1

B is the event of a defective item getting through #2
Then P(A) = 1 0.8 = 0.2
P(B) = 1 0.7 = 0.3
A and B are independent events, so
P(A B) = P(A)P(B) = 0.2 0.3 = 0.06

3. Solution:

Let A is the event that the problem will not be solved,

1
1
1
1
P(A) = (1 )(1 )(1 ) =
4
3
2
4

Let B is the event that the problem will be solved, A and B are independent and mutually
exclusive,
1
P(B) = 1 P(A) = 1 = 0.75
4
4. Solution:

Consider A is the event that the item is defective, B1 is the event that the item is made in
machine 1. B2 is the event that the item is made in machine 2.
P(B2)=0.3
Then, P(B1)=0.7
P(A/B1)=0.05 P(A/B2)=0.08
P(A)=P(A/B1)P(B1)+P(A/B2)P(B2)= 0.05 0.7 + 0.08 0.3 = 0.059

5. Solution:

The probability that exactly 2 castings will be defective is

P( r =2 ) = 8 C 2 p 2 q 6 =

8!
0.2 2 0.8 6 = .293601
2!(8 2)!

6. Solution:

p = 0.1, q = 0.9, P = n C r p r q n r
The probability of there being at least three lines during this period is
1 (10 C 0 p 10 + 10 C1 p 9 q + 10 C 2 p 8 q 2 )
= 1 (0.810 + 10 0.8 9 0.2 + 45 0.88 0.2 2 )
= 0.3222
E(x)= np = 10 0.2 = 2 Lines.