AMA1110 2019/20 Semester 1 Exercise 6

AMA1110 Basic Mathematics I -

Calculus and Probability & Statistics
Exercise 6

A Revision
Keywords: Sample space. Experiment. Probability. Permutation. Combination. Venn
Diagram. Union. Intersection. Collectively exhaustive. Addition Rule. Mutually exclu-
sive. Complement. Marginal probability. Conditional probability. Independent. Multi-
plicative Rule. Law of total probability. Bayes’ Theorem

Definition A.1 The sample space is defined as the set of all possible experimental
outcomes. Any one particular experimental outcome is referred to as a sample point and
is an element of the sample space.

Definition A.2 A permutation of a set of objects in any arrangement of these objects

in a definite order.

Definition A.3 (Factorial) The symbol n! represents the product of all integers from
n to 1. In other words,
n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2)(n − 3) · . . . · 3 · 2 · 1
and by definition, 0! = 1.

1. The number of permutations (arrangements) of n different elements is n!. For

instance, if S = {a, b, c} , then number of permutations is equal to 3! = 3×2×1 = 6.
2. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time where 1 ≤ r ≤ n
is
n n!
n Pr = P r = = n(n − 1)(n − 2)(n − 3) · . . . · (n − r + 1) (A.1)
(n − r)!
Definition A.4 A combination of a set of objects is a group or subset of the objects
disregarding their order.

That is, sampling is equivalent to partitioning a set of n elements into 2 groups: elements
that appear in the sample and those that do not. Let r be the number of elements in the
sample, and n − r be the number of elements remaining. Then the number of different
samples of r elements that can be selected from n is
 
n n n!
n Cr = Cr = = . (A.2)
r r!(n − r)!
Theorem A.5 Consider two events A and B, the probability of the union of A and B is
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) (A.3)

Theorem A.6 If the events A and B are mutually exclusive, i.e. P (A ∩ B) = 0, the
probability of the union of A and B is
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) (A.4)

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AMA1110 2019/20 Semester 1 Exercise 6

Definition A.7 The complement of A, denoted by Ā or Ac or A0 is defined to be the

event consisting of all sample points that are not in A. We have P (A) = 1 − P (Ā).

Theorem A.8 If A and B are two events with P (A) 6= 0 and P (B) 6= 0, then

P (A ∩ B) P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) = and P (B|A) = (A.5)
P (B) P (A)

Definition A.9 Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of
one does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. In other words, A and
B are independent events if

P (A|B) = P (A) and P (B|A) = P (B) (A.6)

Theorem A.10 If two events A and B are independent, then

P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) (A.7)

Theorem A.11 (Law of total probability) Assume that B1 , B2 , · · · , Bn are collec-

tively exhaustive events where P (Bi ) > 0, for i = 1, 2, · · · , k and Bi and Bj are mutually
exclusive events for i 6= j. Then for any event A

P (A) = P (B1 )P (A|B1 ) + P (B2 )P (A|B2 ) + · · · + P (Bn )P (A|Bn ) (A.8)

Theorem A.12 (Bayes’ Theorem) Suppose that B1 , B2 , · · · , Bn are n mutually ex-

clusive and exhaustive events, then

P (Bk )P (A|Bk )
P (Bk |A) = (A.9)
P (B1 )P (A|B1 ) + P (B2 )P (A|B2 ) + · · · + P (Bn )P (A|Bn )

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AMA1110 2019/20 Semester 1 Exercise 6

B Exercise
1. For each of the following 9 given letters, suppose that they are randomly shuffled. What
is the probability that, after the shuffle, A or B or both appear in the same positions as
before? Assume that each distinct permutation is equally probable.

(a) ABCDEF GHK; (b) AAACDEF BB;

2. In the experiment of shuffling 8 letters ABCDEF GH, are the events “A stays in its
original position” and “B stays in its original position” independent?
3. For two events A and B, it is given that P (A|B) = 0.2 and P (A|B̄) = 0.5.
(a) If P (B) = 0.7, what is P (B|A)?
(b) If P (A) = 0.3, what is P (B|A)?
(c) If P (B|A) = 0.6, what is P (B|Ā)?
4. It is known from past experience that for students who studied for at least 20 hours, their
chance of passing the exam is 0.95, while for those who studied for less than 20 hours,
their chance of passing the exam is 0.1. It is also know that the passing rate is 90%. If a
student is randomly chosen and is found to have passed, what is the probability that he
has studied for less than 20 hours?
5. (a) Find the smallest number of times a fair die has to be rolled so that the probability
of getting at least one “6” is at least 0.9.
(b) Find the smallest number of times a fair coin has to be tossed so that the probability
of seeing at least one head and one tail in the process is at least 0.99.
6. The probability that a person is getting no reward, at most 1 reward, at most 2 rewards
and at most 3 rewards are respectively 0.52, 0.64, 0.73 and 0.81. Find the probability
that the person gets
(a) exactly 1 reward;
(b) exactly 3 rewards;
(c) exactly 2 rewards, given that he is known to have received at most 3 rewards.

Answer:
5 1
1a. 24 4. 153

7
1b. 180 5a. The smallest number of roll is 13.

2. A and B are not independent. 5b. The smallest number of toss is 8.

14
3a. 29 6a. 0.12

4
3b. 9 6b. 0.08

6 1
3c. 7 6c. 9

- I am interested in mathematics only as a creative art. Godfrey Harold Hardy (1877-1947). -

- Finis -

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AMA1110 2019/20 Semester 1 Exercise 6

Outline Solution for Selected Questions:

(Warning: This is just an outline, please write all the details during your test/exam)
There might have many typos / mistakes, please report to hraymond.sze@polyu.edu.hki
if you find any. Thank you!

1. Let A be the event that A appears in the same position. Let B be the event that B appears in the
same position.
8! 8! 7! 5
1a. P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = 9! + 9! − 9! = 24 .

9!
1b. With 3 ”A”s and 2 ”B”s, distinct permutation: 2!3! . ”A” fixed, then 6!
2! permutations for the letters
7!
CDEFBB. ”B” fixed, then 3! permutations for the letters AAACDEF. ”AB” fixed, then 4! permutations
6! 7!
4! 7
for the letters CDEF. P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = 2!
9! + 3!
9! − 9! = 180 .
2!3! 2!3! 2!3!

2. Let A be the event that A appears in the same position. Let B be the event that B appears in the
6!
7!
same position. P (A) = 8! = 18 . P (A|B) = P P(A∩B) 8! 1 1
(A) = 7! = 7 6= 8 . Hence, A and B are not independent.
8!

3a.
P (B)P (A|B) P (B)P (A|B) 14
P (B|A) = = =
P (A) P (B)P (A|B) + P (B̄)P (A|B̄) 29
.

3b. Since P (A) = P (B)P (A|B)+P (B̄)P (A|B̄), we have 0.3 = 0.2P (B)+0.5(1−P (B)), hence P (B) = 32 .
P (B)P (A|B) P (B)P (A|B) 0.2( 23 )
Therefore, we have P (B|A) = P (A) = P (B)P (A|B)+P (B̄)P (A|B̄)
= 0.3 = 49 .

3c. Let P (A) = p, P (B) = q. Since P (A) = P (B)P (A|B) + P (B̄)P (A|B̄), we have
p = qP (A|B) + (1 − q)P (A|B̄) ⇒, p = 0.2q + 0.5(1 − q), hence
p + 0.3q = 0.5.
Also, 0.6 = P (B|A) = P (B)P (A|B)
P (A) = qP (A|B)
p = 0.2 pq , hence
q = 3p.
5 15
On solving, we have p = 19 and q = 19 .
P (B)P (Ā|B) [1−P (A|B)]P (B) 6
P (B|Ā) = P (Ā)
= 1−P (A) = 7

4. Let “pass” be the event that the student chosen passed the exam.
Let “≥ 20” be the event that the student studied at least 20 hours.
Let “< 20” be the complement of “≥ 20”.
Then we have
P (pass| ≥ 20) = 0.95, P (pass| < 20) = 0.1 and P (pass) = 0.9. We want to find P (< 20|pass).
Since by Law of total probability (A.11), we have
P (pass) = P (≥ 20)P (pass| ≥ 20) + P (< 20)P (pass| < 20)
= (1 − P (< 20))P (pass| ≥ 20) + P (< 20)P (pass| < 20)
0.9 = 0.95(1 − P (< 20)) + 0.1P (< 20)
1
⇒ P (< 20) =
17
5a.

5b.

6. Let X be the number of rewards. Then we have P (X = 0) = 0.52, P (X ≤ 1) = 0.64, P (X ≤ 2) = 0.73,

P (X ≤ 3) = 0.81.

6a. P (X = 1) = P (X ≤ 1) − P (X = 0) = 0.12

6b. P (X = 3) = P (X ≤ 3) − P (X ≤ 2) = 0.08
P (X=2∩X≤3) P (X=2) P (X≤2)−P (X≤1) 1
6c. P (X = 2|X ≤ 3) = P (X≤3) = P (X≤3) = P (X≤3) = 9