2018

New Year’s Briefing

6-7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany

Christian Müller, Principal Analyst & Manager

0049 (69) 20973 328, Christian.mueller@ihsmarkit.com

© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Factors Affecting Our Perception of EV and Battery Technology
Performance

Price
Durability Cost

Production
Safety
Capacity

Recharging
Driving Range
Infrastructure

Raw
Energy
Material
Density
Availability

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2

Setting the scene - battery pack breakdown

Prismatic Cylindrical Pouch

Battery cell

Battery module Battery pack

Source: CATL– photo taken by IHS Markit at IAA

2017, Frankfurt, Germany, September 2017

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 3

 Lithium based battery technology continues to offer the highest potential
First commercialization
in electrification Name Voltage (V) Energy (Wh/kg) Cycle life
Li-solid state
1891 Lead acid 2.0 50 500

1982 Ni-MH 1.2 100 1,000

1998
Expectation

Li-ion 3.6 200 2,000

2022? Li-solid state 4.8 400 +10,000

All figures are simplified to easily compare technologies

Ni-MH Lead acid

Li-sulfur
Li-air
Li-ion
Mg-ion
Na-air

Source: IHS Markit

Time

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 4

Li-ion Battery System Technology Roadmap

More energy and power, and safer

2017 2020 2025

Rich Nickel
Cathode LFP, LMO, NMC, NCA
(High voltage spinell)
Sulfur, Air

Anode Carbon, Graphite Silicon Lithium-metal, CNT

Electrolyte Liquid, Polymer Solid state

Separator Polymer mebranes None

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 5

Electrode Material
NMC seems to offer the most accepted compromise between all requirements
Cell Leading Characteristics of electrode materials
Acronym Material
voltage supplier
NCA Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum 3.65 V Tesla Low cost
oxide Panasonic
NMC Lithium Nickel Manganese 3.7 V LG
Cobalt oxide Samsung
LFP Lithium Iron Phosphate 3.2-3.3 V CATL Specific energy
Life
BYD (kWh/kg)
Lishen
LTO Lithium Titanate Oxide 2.4 V Toshiba

LMO Lithium Manganese Oxide 4V AESC

(original li-ion technology)
Charge /
• Except LTO, these are cathode materials. The anode is usually discharge rate
Safety
graphite.
• NCA is used only by Tesla, on license from Panasonic
• LTO and LMO are loosing significance in the automotive market NCA NMC LFP LMO LTO
• LCO is the original Lithium Ion technology but no longer used
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 6
 Major Raw Material use for selected models
Tons of Material used per year

Tesla Model S
Cathode Type: NCA

Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium

17,5 Kg 3,2 Kg 4,3 Kg 0,5 Kg 0,5 Kg

Chevrolet Bolt
Cathode Type: NMC

Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium

7,5 Kg 2,5 Kg 7,5 Kg 6,5 Kg 0 Kg

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 7

Major Raw Material Deposits for Batteries
Which countries are OEMs exposing themselves to?

Lithium

Cobalt

Nickel

Manganese

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 8

 Securing raw material supplies
Will Material Hedging Solve this Problem?
“Manufacturers such as electric vehicle
makers should be concerned that the supply
of one of the key mineral components, or the
processing and refining infrastructure, could
become too centralised in a single country.
Without diverse source options, the
possibility of supply restriction becomes
more likely.”
Ben McLellan, senior research fellow at Kyoto University
Tesla Motors and BMW is also said
to be looking for supplies of cobalt,
according to people in the market,
though no formal tenders have been
issued.
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
“The procurement project is one of the
largest in the history of the automotive
industry, with a total order volume of over 50
billion euros,” it said in a statement. “That will
meet the Group’s needs for the first wave of
e-mobility.”
Volkswagen Statement
“A secure and sustainable
supply of raw materials for the “They want a fixed price, which won’t work for
Li-ion [lithium ion] battery will people who need security and they want to
be the key factor to become e- reserve the right to not take metal they don’t
mobility market leader,” need,” another cobalt source said. “They want
Volkswagen Statement producers to take all the risks ... they want an
option at low prices, for long maturities at zero
cost.”
Cobalt Trader
9
 Cell Technology options
Pouch cells gaining ground thanks to Korean manufacturers
Cylindrical Prismatic Pouch

Electrodes rolled/winded flat winded stacked

Packaging stainless steel can aluminium (for automotive) casing, flexible aluminium+plastic foil (may swell
welded shut. during charge/discharge).
Pros & Cons + self-supporting mechanical structure + energy density, specific energy + high specific energy (kWh/kg)
- lower energy density (kWh/cm³) - thermal management + cost
- cost - needs a rigid support from the module.
Leading auto Tesla & Panasonic BYD, Samsung SDI, LG
suppliers SK Innovation
CATL
Often used for NCA (since Panasonic is the main manufacturer) high voltage LFP and low voltage Lithium polymer with solid electrolyte
all chemistries
Form factor standardized (somehwat) no standard, but usually fixed to a few sizes for a given no standard, usually custom size
• 18650: Ø18x65 mm, most widespread: laptops, ebikes, supplier
previously used Tesla
• 26650: often used for LFP
• 2170(0): Ø21x70 mm, new Tesla format

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 10

Battery Demand by Cell Type

Capacity demand by cell type Vehicle production volume

Million units (pack)

GWh

300 30

250 25

200 20

150 15

100 10

50 5

0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic

Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 11

Profiles of major battery manufacturers
A diverse supply base

60
GWh 50
2016 2020
40
30
20
10
0
Manufacturer Tesla Panasonic LG Chem Samsung SDI CATL Lishen Guoxan BYD OptimumNano
High Tech
Cells NCA LMO NCM NCM LFP and NCM LFP LFP & NMC LFP LFP
cylindrical cylindrical pouch prismatic prismatic cylindrical & prismatic & cylindrical
prismatic pouch
Core EV consumer and diversified diversified batteries batteries electrical EV batteries
business pro appliances equipment

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 12

Mapping the Announced Major Battery Cell Manufacturing Locations

GWh China
400
334 Others
300
Tianjin Lishen
200
Guoxuan
100 68

0 Optimum
Nano
2016 2020

GWh North America GWh Europe GWh Japan, Korea

60 60 60 54
Others
38 Others
40 40 Samsung SDI 40
Others Samsung SDI
30
LG Chemical 23 LG Chemical
LG Chemical
20 Panasonic
20 SK Innovation 20
AESC
1 Terra E
0 Panasonic
0 0 Northvolt 0
2016 2020 2016 2020 2016 2020

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 13

Battery supply chain in automotive industry
Cell Cell Module Pack Electric Vehicle OEM
supplier
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles,
Geely, Guangzhou

Volkswagen, Renault, BMW, Tesla,

General Motors, Daimler, Hyundai (Browns battery, Accumotive, Mobis)

Lifan, (Nissan)

PEVE, AESC, LEJ, BEJ, Pride Power,

HLGP, BESK, Shanghai Jiexin, Wuhu Qida

Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, LG Chemical, Tianjin Lishen, Optimumnano,

Farasis, Guoxuan, Sinopoly, Electrovaya, Chuangyuan

Do-Fluoride, Wanxiang A123/Fisker, BYD

Source: IHS Markit Industry Disruptors: Dyson, Hyperdrive

Innovation, Webasto
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 14
Key Take Aways For Suppliers

• Carmakers are still very much in experimental

mode (large scale but experimental) about batteries
and EVs. Evolution of automotive battery landscape

• Battery pack assembly done more in house NimH Li+ LiS?

• Raw material availability concentrated around few now

difficult locations
Japan S. Korea
• Battery cell production capacity increase needed to
sustain projected growth rates China

Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 15

 Presentation Name / Month 2017

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