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Monitoring and evaluation Environment ►

Phase 3 - Troubleshoot and analyze situations raised in the evaluation of the Unit 1

Started on Thursday, 3 October 2019, 7:20 PM

State Finished
Completed on Thursday, 3 October 2019, 8:31 PM
Time taken 1 hour 10 mins
Marks 3.00/10.00
Grade 15.00 out of 50.00 (30%)
Feedback Aún debes continuar repasando la temática en la que has fallado.

Question 1 These questions consist of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by
Incorrect the word why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical
relationship that unites them.
Mark 0.00 out of
1.00

Statement:

The deterministic models of decision, are known with certainty all the data of the reality that
represent because if one or more data are referred to only in terms of probability, the model
is called, probabilistic, random or stochastic.

Select one:
a. The affirmation and the reason and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct
explanation of the statement.

b. The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the
statement. The correct answer is: The affirmation and the reason and reason are
true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of the statement.

c. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

d. The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition.

Your answer is incorrect.

The correct answer is: The affirmation and the reason and reason are true, but the reason is
not a correct explanation of the statement.
/
Question 2 This question consists of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by the
Incorrect word why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical
relationship that unites them.
Mark 0.00 out of
1.00

Statement:
The following decision tree presents the states of nature and their probabilities to decide if
you do or do not develop a new product, taking into account whether or not the hiring of a
consultant of a market research firm:

Where:
A1: Develop the new product.
A2: Not to develop the new product.
A, B, C: States of nature and their probabilities.
A: Sell high.
B: Sell media.
C: Sell low.
AP, BP, Cp: Likely to reliability.
The expected value in the node 3 corresponds to a mathematical calculation of 1870
monetary units because the expected value is the sum of the states of nature multiplied by
the odds associated with each one of its branches.

Select one:
a. The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the
statement.

b. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

/
 c. The affirmation and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of
the statement. The correct answer is: The affirmation and reason are true and the
reason is a correct explanation of the statement.

d. The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition.

Your answer is incorrect.

The correct answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

/
Question 3 This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to
Correct correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according
to the think is correct.
Mark 1.00 out of
1.00 Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must
decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a
vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the
projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

State of nature

Alternative decision Low Medium High

demand demand demand

Manufactured 25 30 60
Buy 35 40 50
Probability ∑= 1 0,25 0,25 0,5

At the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According to the above information, the Expected Value With Perfect Information (EVwithPI)
of the problem is:

Select one:
a. 47.75 millions.

b. 48.75 millions. The correct answer is: 48.75 millions.

c. 47.25 millions.

d. 46.5 millions.

/
Your answer is correct.
The correct answer is: 48.75 millions.

/
Question 4 This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to
Correct correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according
to the think is correct.
Mark 1.00 out of
1.00 Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must
decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a
vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the
projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

State of nature

Alternative decision Low Medium High

demand demand demand

Manufactured 25 30 60
Buy 35 40 50
Probability ∑= 1 0,25 0,25 0,5

At the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According to the above information, the Expected Value Without Perfect Information
(EVwithoutPI) of the problem is:

Select one:
a. 47 millions.

b. 43.75 millions. The correct answer is: 43.75 millions.

c. 45.5 millions.
d. 44.75 millions.

/
 Your answer is correct.
The correct answer is: 43.75 millions.

Question 5 This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to
Incorrect correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according
to the think is correct.
Mark 0.00 out of
1.00 Statement:
When in the environment are the states of nature, but not the probability of each of them;
when the decision-maker knows that states of nature can be presented and the probability
that each one of them, when they do not even know the possible states of nature or when
the decision maker knows with absolute certainty the states of nature that are going to
occur. The level of information determines the type of environment of the decision, in the
order presented, the types of structured decision are:

Select one:
a. Unstructured uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty. The correct answer
is: Uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty.

b. Certainty, structured Uncertainty, risk and uncertainty.

c. Non-structured Risk, Uncertainty, Uncertainty, structured and certainty.

d. Uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty.

Your answer is incorrect.

The correct answer is: Uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty.

/
Question 6 This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to
Incorrect correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according
to the think is correct.
Mark 0.00 out of
1.00 Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must
decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a
vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the
projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

State of nature

Alternative decision Low Medium High

demand demand demand

Manufactured 15 40 50
Buy 25 35 40
Probability ∑= 1 0,3 0,3 0,4

At the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According to the above information, the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) of the
problem is:

Select one:
a. 5 millions.

b. 3.5 millions. The correct answer is: 3 millions.

c. 3 millions.
d. 4 millions.

/
Your answer is incorrect.
The correct answer is: 3 millions.

/
Question 7 This question consists of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by the
Incorrect word why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical
relationship that unites them.
Mark 0.00 out of
1.00 Statement:
The following decision tree presents the states of nature and their probabilities to decide
whether or not develops a new product, taking into account whether or not the hiring of a
consultant of a market research firm:

Where:
A1: Develop the new product.
A2: Not to develop the new product.
A, B, C: States of nature and their probabilities
A: Sell high.
B: Sell media.
C: Sell low.
AP, BP, Cp: Likely to reliability

The expected value in the node 9 corresponds to a mathematical calculation of 2182.649

monetary units because the value esparado is the sum of the states of nature multiplied by
the odds associated with each one of its branches.

Select one:
a. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

b. The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the
statement.

/
 c. The affirmation and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of
the statement.

d. The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition. The correct
answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

Your answer is incorrect.

The correct answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

/
Question 8 This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to
Incorrect correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according
to the think is correct.
Mark 0.00 out of
1.00 Statement:

A company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory vehicles must
decide whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from a
vendor Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the
projected profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table 1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

State of nature

Alternative decision Low Medium High

demand demand demand

Manufactured 28 40 60
Buy 30 50 70
Probability ∑= 1 0,45 0,25 0,3

At the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According to the above information, the Expected Value Without Perfect Information
(EVwithoutPI) of the problem is:

Select one:
a. 44 millions The correct answer is: 47 millions.

b. 45 millions
c. 47 millions

d. 42 millions

/
 Your answer is incorrect.
The correct answer is: 47 millions

Question 9 This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to
Correct correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according
to the think is correct.
Mark 1.00 out of
1.00 Statement:
In a decision-making process in two parts that make up the use of the model are:

Select one:
a. Should not be applicable to other similar problems.
b. Must be accurate and complete in the relationships.

c. Search relationships are essential in the development of the model. The

correct answer is: Search relationships are essential in the development of the model.
d. Should cover all the possibilities that gives real life.

Your answer is correct.

The correct answer is: Search relationships are essential in the development of the model.

Question 10 This type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these options to
Incorrect correctly answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according
to the think is correct.
Mark 0.00 out of
1.00 Statement:
An example of an indicator of effectiveness is?:

Select one:
a. The level of satisfaction of employees. The correct answer is: The percentage
of completion of the production units.

b. The percentage of products returned by customers.

c. The percentage of completion of the production units.

d. The quantities of increase for each computer that is achieved in a company.

Your answer is incorrect.

The correct answer is: The percentage of completion of the production units.