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Chapter 6:
Elementary Probability
Objectives:
•Understand elementary probability concepts.
•Calculate the probability of events,
•Distinguish between mutually exclusive,
•Use general additional law for probabilities,
•dependent and independent events,
•Calculate conditional probabilities,
ILLUSTRATION – SBM Students
Sample QMII
space
Bachelor
Accounting Financial
Management
2
Macroeconomics
MATHS II
Events
Probability is the study of uncertainty and is concerned
with events happening by chance.
Probability is the numerical measure of the likelihood
that the event will occur.
The greater the probability the more likely the event
will occur.
It can be written as a fraction, decimal, percent, or
ratio.
Probability Scale
Value is between 0 and 1.
Suppose the sample space S of an experiment has n
outcomes given by: 1 Certain
S {e1, e 2 , e3 ,....en }
To each outcome S, we assign a real
number, P(e), called the probability
.5 50/50
of the outcome e,
Then,
P(e1 ) P(e 2 ) P(e3 ) ... P(en ) 1
0 Impossible
•Probability must be non negative
•Probability must NOT be greater than one.
A probability experiment is an action through which
specific results (counts, measurements, or responses)
are obtained.
Such as Tossing a coin, throwing a Die,
The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is
an outcome.
The set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment is the sample space, denoted by the letter S.
Sample Space
This is a set consisting of all the possible outcomes.
Example 1:
Tossing of a coin: S = { H, T}
Example 2:
All 6 faces of a die: S = { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }
Example 3:
A survey is undertaken in which the gross annual income
of accountants in year 2005 is recorded. The figure
recorded is whether this income exceeded $100,000.00.
The sample space is:
Example 4:
A stockbroker makes a listing of all his stocks. For each
one he records whether he feels it will rise or fall in value in
the next 12 months. The sample space is:
Solution:
This experiment can be depicted by the tree diagram as
follows:
Boy BBB
Boy
Girl BBG
Boy
Boy BGB
Girl
Girl BGG
Boy GBB
Boy
Girl GBG
Girl
Boy GGB
Girl
Girl GGG
Revision:
Formula: n(E) Where n(E) is the number of
P(E)
n(S) elements in the event and n(S) is
the number of elements in the
sample space.
Example 7:
The probability of picking a picture card from a pack of 52
playing cards is:
n (Picture cards) 12 3
P(Picture card)
n (S) 52 13
Example 8:
What is the probability of obtaining a Head upon
tossing of a coin (NB. not the Tail). The event is Head
to show up.
Solution:
When tossing a coin, the are 2 possible outcomes
i.e. {H, T}..
Thus, n(H) 1
P(H) 0.5
n(S) 2
Example 9:
On rolling a die, what is the probability that an odd
number will show?
Solution:
A die has 6 faces and three of them have odd numbers.
Therefore,
n (odd ) 3 1
P(odd )
n (S) 6 2
Complementary Events
The complements of an event are those outcomes of the
sample space for which the event does not occur.
Two events that are complements of each other are said
to be complementary.
The complement of event E is denoted by E or E
Properties of Probability:
0 P(E ) 1
P(E) P(E ) 1
P(E) 1 P(E )
P(E ) 1 P(E)
Example 10:
Upon tossing a die what is the probability of obtaining not a 5.
Solution:
n (5) 1
P(5)
n (S) 6
n (5) 1 5
P( Not a 5) 1 1
n (S) 6 6
P(E) P(E ) 1
The given equation is particularly useful when calculating the
probability that, for example, at least one object in a random
sample has a particular characteristics.
Define the two events:
A = no one has the characteristics
B = at least one person has the characteristics.
P( A B) 0
In a Venn diagram this means that event A is disjoint
from event B.
A A B
B
P( A or B) P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the addition
rule is simplified to:
P( A or B) P( A B) P( A) P( B)
This simplified rule can be extended to any number of
mutually exclusive events.
Example 12:
An accountant found that receivables fell into one of 4
categories.
A = paid on time C = paid late
B = paid early D = uncollectable,
Solution:
Let J be Jack and H be Heart
4 13 1
P( J ) , P( H ) , P( J H ) ,
52 52 52
P( J or H ) P( J ) P( H ) P( J H )
4 13 1
52 52 52
16 4
52 13
Independent events
Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of
one not alter the likelihood of the event occurring.
If two events A and B are independent, then this
relationship holds:
P(A and B) P(A) P(B)
Note:
This relationship can also be applied to more
independent events.
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability of an event
occurring, given that another event has already occurred.
P( A and B) P( A B) P( A) P( B A)
If events A and B are independent, then the probability of two
events, A and B occurring in a sequence (or simultaneously) is:
P ( A and B ) P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B )
This rule can extend to any number of independent events.
Example 16:
Two cards are drawn from a well shuffled deck of 52 cards.
First card is not replaced. Find the probability of drawing 2
Hearts.
Solution
Let A be the Second card is a Heart and let B be the first
card is a Heart.
13 12 P(B A )
P(B) , P( A | B ) P( A | B )
52 51 P(B)