Probability

Random Experiment-

The experiment conducted under homogeneous conditions does not give the same result but may
be any one of the various possible outcomes is called random experiment.

For Example – Tossing a coin four times and observing the total number of heads obtained.

Trial and Event –

The performance of the random experiment is called trial and the outcomes are known as events.

For Example –

 Tossing a coin is a trial and getting head or tail is an event.

 Throwing a dice is a trial and getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 is an event.

Exhaustive Events – The set of all possible outcomes of any trial is called exhaustive event.

For Example –

 In tossing a coin, the exhaustive number of cases is 2.

 In throwing a dice, the exhaustive number of cases is 6.
 In throwing ‘n’ dice, the exhaustive number of cases is 6n.

Favourable Events –

The number of outcomes which result in the happening of the desired event is called favourable
event.

For Example –

 In throwing a dice, the number of cases favourable for getting an odd number are 3, i.e.,
1, 3 and 5
 In throwing a dice, the number of cases favourable for getting an even number are 3, i.e.,
2, 4 and 6

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Mutually Exclusive Events –

The events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one excludes the occurrence of
other, i.e., they cannot occur simultaneously.

[ P A  B  0]

Classical or Mathematical Definition of Probability –

Let ‘n’ be mutually exclusive, exhaustive and equally likely outcomes, out of which ‘m’ are
favourable to an event ‘A’, then the probability of occurrence of event ‘A’ denoted by P(A) is
given as

P  A 
m
n

Axiomatic definition of probability –

The probability of occurrence of an event ‘A’ denoted by P(A) is a real number satisfying the
following properties or axioms:

0  P A  1

P( S )  1 , Where S is sample space

P A  B  P A  PB , Where ‘A’ and ‘B’ are mutually exclusive events.

Notations –

Let ‘A’ and ‘B’ are two events then A and B stand for non-occurrence of events A and B, then

A B denotes simultaneous occurrence of A and B.

A  B  denotes only ‘B’ occurs
A  B  denotes only ‘A’ occurs
A B either A occurs or B occurs

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A  B  neither A occurs nor B occurs

Addition Theorem of Probability-

For any two events ‘A’ and ‘B’ associated with a sample ‘S’ of a random experiment ‘E’ we
have:

PA  B  PA  PB  PA  B

For any three events A, B and C associated with a sample ‘S’ of a random experiment ‘E’ we
have:

PA  B  C   PA  PB  PC   PA  B  PB  C   PA  C   PA  B  C 

Multiplication Theorem of Probability or Multiplicative law of probability or Compound

Theorem of Probability -

For any two events ‘A’ and ‘B’ associated with a sample ‘S’ of a random experiment ‘E’ we
have:

P A  B  PAPB A

PA  B  PBPA B

Example-

For the selection of a player in a state level football team, three players A, B and C appears in the
selection process, the probability of A being selected is twice that of B and the probability of B
being selected is thrice that of C. find the individual probabilities of selection of A, B and C.

Solution-

P(A) = 2P(B)

P(B) = 3P(C)

Let S denotes the sample space and E1, E2 and E3 denote the event of selection of A, B
and C respectively.

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 P (E3) = x

P (E2) =3P(E3) = 3x

P (E1) = 2P(E2) = 6x

PA  B  C   PA  PB  PC   PA  B  PB  C   PA  C   PA  B  C 

E E E S
1 2 3

P E  E  E   PS 
1 2 3

P E   P E   P E   P E  E   P E  E   P E  E   P E  E  E   PS 
1 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 3

6 x  3 x  x  P   P   P   P   1

10 x  1
1
x  0. 1
10
P E1  6 x  6  0.1  0.6
P E 2   3 x  3  0.1  0.3
P E 3   x  0.1

Statistical Independence-

Events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the occurrence of the
other.

For any four events A, B, C and D associated with the sample space ‘S’ of a random experiment
‘E’ we have:

P A  B  C  D  P APBPC PD

Conditional Probability

If ‘A’ and ‘B’ are two events defined over the sample ‘S’ of a random experiment ‘E’ the
conditional probability of occurrence of ‘B’ given ‘A’ (i.e., conditional probability of
occurrence of B when event ‘A’ has already occurred) is given by:

P A  B 
P  B A  [Where P(A) > 0]
P  A

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Similarly the conditional probability of occurrence of ‘A’ given ‘B’ (i.e., conditional probability
of occurrence of ‘A’ when event ‘B’ has already occurred) is given by:

P A  B 
P  B A  [Where P(B) > 0]
P B 

P B A 
Outcomes favourable to B in A
Total Number of outcomes in A

P B  
Outcomes favourable to A in B
Total Number of outcomes in B

Example-

8% of bulbs produced by a factory are red and 2% are red and defective. A bulb is chosen at
random find the probability of its being defective if it is red.

Solution- Let E1 and E2 denote the events that the selected bulb is red and defective respectively

P E1  0.08
P E1  E 2   0.02
P E  E  0.02
P E 2     0.25
P E 
1 2
E 1
0.08
1

Example –

In a college 30% students take physics and 45% students take mathematics and rest 25% students
take both, one student is chosen at random, what is the probability that

(i) He takes mathematics if has already taken physics

(ii) He takes physics if has already taken mathematics
(iii) He takes physics or mathematics

Solution- Let E1 denotes the event that the selected student takes physics and E2 denotes the
event that the selected student takes mathematics.

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 P E1  0.30
P E 2   0.45
P E1  E 2   0.25
P E1  E 2 
P E 2 E 
0.25
  0.833
1
P E1 0.30
P E  E  0.25
P E1 E   P   0.45  0.555
2
1 2

E 2

P E  E   P E   P E   P E  E   0.30  0.45  0.25  0.5

1 2 1 2 1 2

Example-

A problem in mathematics is given to four students A, B, C and D. their respective chances of

solving it are 1/2, 1/3, 1/5 and 1/6. What is the probability that the problem will be solved by any
two of them?

Solution- Required probability

P( A) 
1
2

 P A  1 
1 1
2 2
1

P( B)   P B  1  
3
1 2
3 3
1

P(C )   P C  1  
5
1 4
5 5
1
 
P( D)   P D  1  
6
1 5
6 6
          
Required probabilit y  P( A) P ( B) P C P D  P( A) P B P(C ) P D  P( A) P B P C P( D) 
 P AP( B ) P(C ) P D  P AP( B ) P C P ( D) P AP B P (C ) P( D)
1 1 4 5 1 2 1 5 1 2 4 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 4 1
Required probabilit y                              
2 3 5 6 2 3 3 6 2 3 5 6 2 3 5 6 2 3 5 6
 1 2 1 1  49
      0.217
 2 3 5 6  180

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