COLLEGE of ENGINEERING

Chapter 2:
Section 3

Probability

Professor:
M. Dehghani
1
 2 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Introduction

 Probability is measure of how likely something will

occur
 It’s ratio of desired outcomes to total outcomes

 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐻𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔= ¿ 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

` ¿ 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
 3 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Basic Properties of Probability

Non-negativity
 This property states that every event has a non-negativity
probability.

  `and

 The lowest probability of an event is 0 or no chance and the highest

probability of an event is 1 or certain.
Union
 The probability of the union of mutually exclusive events is the sum
of each event’s probability.
  `
 Also, if more than 2 events are mutually exclusive, the probability of the
union of all of those events is the sum of all of the individual probabilities.
 4 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Examples
Example 1:
 Remember to think how many possibilities there are

 Question:
 there are 5 marbles in a bag:
4 are blue & 1 is red.
 What is the probability that a blue marble will be picked?
 Solution:
 Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues)
 Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total

 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦= ¿ 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑
`
𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 4
=
¿ 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 5
 5 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Examples:


 Example
  2:
 A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability that:
a.) 5 will appear
b.) an even number will appear?
 Solution:
 S={1,2,3,4,5,6}, n(s)= 6
a.) If A is the event that a 5 will appear
 A= {5}, n(A)= 1


b.) If B is the event that an even number will appear

 B= {2,4,6} , n(B)= 3

 6 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Examples:


 Example
  3:
 Suppose that a card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck
of playing cards, What is the probability of drawing
a. ) a heart
b.) a red card
 Solution:
 S={ }, n(s)= 52

a.) n(Heart)=13 ,
b.) n(red card)= 13 +13 =26,
 7 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Other Examples

 Tossing a Coin 

 heads (H) or tails (T)

 probability of the coin landing H is 1/2.
 Similarly, the probability of the coin landing T is 1/2.

 Throwing Die 

 When a single die is thrown, there are six possible outcomes: 1,

2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
 The probability of throwing any one of these numbers is 1/6
 8 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Probability Line

You can show probability on a Probability Line

 A probability of 0, or 0%, means the event has no chance of happening.

 A probability of 1/2 , or 50%, means the event is just as likely to happen as not
to happen.
 A probability of 1, or 100%, means the event is certain to happen.
 9 Ch 2.1 - Probability
1-The Additive Rule

   What is P(A  B) if A and B are not mutually exclusive?

 Can use a Venn diagram to show this case.
 The sample points in P(A  B) are double counted.
 So P(A  B)=?

A∩B
S

A B

 If A and B are any two events, then:

`
 10 Ch 2.1 - Probability
1-The Additive Rule
 Example:
 Decide if the two events are not mutually exclusive.
 Event A: Select a Jack from a deck of cards.
 Event B: Select a heart from a deck of cards.

S
A 9 2 B
J 3 10
Because the card can be a Jack and a
J J A 7
heart at the same time, the events are K 4
not mutually exclusive. J 6
5 8
Q
  Solution:
 P(A B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A B)
I. n(A)=4 ,
II. n(B)= 13 , n(S)=52
III. n(A B)=1,


 11 Ch 2.1 - Probability
1-The Additive Rule
  Example:
 If two dice are rolled ( or, equivalently, if one die is rolled twice), what
is the probability of total 7 or 11?
 Solution Union
 Sample Space for rolling two dice:
 Event A: total of 7 S
 Event B: total of 11 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
 P(A B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A B)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
I. A={ }
II. B= { } (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
III. A B={ }
(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

 12 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Union

 If
  A and B are mutually exclusive, then:
S S

A BB
A

`
−
  𝑷( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)

And Generally:
 If are mutually exclusive, then:

`
 13 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Examples:


 Example
  2:
 One card is drawn from a standard deck of cards.
What is the probability that it is an ace or a nine?
 Solution:
 A: Draw an Ace
 B: Draw a Nine
 Events A and B are mutually exclusive.
 A card can be either an Ace or a nine, but can not be both
Ace Nine
 P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B) S
I. n(A)=4 ,
II. n(B)= 4 , A B
 P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)=
 14 Ch 2.1 - Probability
2-The Compliment Rule
  S
A’
A

 `

 Probability of neither using the addition rule


`
 15 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Assignment:
 Two cards are drawn one at a time from a full deck of
cards with replacement.
a. what’s the probability they are either an ace or a heart?

b. what’s the probability they are neither ace nor a heart?

 16 Ch 2.1 - Probability
Key Slide

Probability

  


 The Additive Rule

 For mutually exclusive events:

 The Compliment Rule



 Ch:2 - Probability

Assignments IV. 2.63

I. 2.54 V. 2.65
II. 2.60
III. 2.59 (Hint: P:55, Ex: 2.28)

 Assigned homework (slide 15)