PROBABILITY

PREPARED BY:

ENGR. JONATHAN S. RODOLFO

PROBABILITY
Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event
occurring. Probability = the number of ways of
achieving success to the total number of possible
outcomes.
Simple event probability
An event that has a single point of the
sample space is known as a simple
event in probability. For example, the
probability of getting a 3 when a die is
tossed. In the case of a simple event,
the numerator (number of favorable
outcomes) will be 1.
Ans: P = 1/6
Simple event probability
For example, the probability of getting
a 3 when a die is tossed. In the case
of a simple event, the numerator
(number of favorable outcomes) will
be 1.

Ans: P = 1/6
Mutually exclusive event
In probability theory, two events are said
to be mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur at the same time or simultaneously.
In other words, mutually exclusive events
are called disjoint events. If two events
are considered disjoint events, then the
probability of both events occurring at the
same time will be zero.
Mutually exclusive event
Examples:

Turning left and turning right are

Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at
the same time)
Tossing a coin: Heads and Tails are
Mutually Exclusive
Cards: Kings and Aces are Mutually
Exclusive
Non-mutually exclusive event
Two events A and B are said to be
mutually non exclusive events if both the
events A and B have at least one common
outcome between them.

The events A and B cannot prevent the

occurrence of one another so from here
we can say that the events A and B have
something common in them.
Non-mutually exclusive event
Examples:

Turning left and scratching your head can

happen at the same time
Kings and Hearts, because we can have a
King of Hearts!
Complementary events probability
Two events are said to be
complementary when one event occurs
if and only if the other does not. The
probabilities of two complimentary
events add up to 1. Complementary
events occur when there are only two
outcomes, for example, clearing an exam
or not clearing an exam. The complement
means the exact opposite of an event.
Complementary events probability
 A number is chosen at random from a
set of whole numbers from 1 to 50.
Calculate the probability that the
chosen number is not a perfect
square.
Perfect squares (1,4,9,16,25,36,49)
P(not) = 1 – P(perfect square)
P(not) = 1 – 7/50
Ans = 43/50
Joint probability
Let A and B be the two events, joint
probability is the probability of event B
occurring at the same time that event
A occurs.
Example: Find the probability that the
number three will occur twice when
two dice are rolled at the same time.
Ans: 1/36
Joint probability
Suppose one has a box of ten balls –
four are white, three are red, and three
are black. One selects five balls out of
the box without replacement and
counts the number of white and red
balls in the sample. What is the
probability one observes two white
and two red balls in the sample?
Independent probability
In probability, we say two events are
independent if knowing one event
occurred doesn't change the probability of
the other event.
Independent probability
Example: You toss a coin and it
comes up "Heads" three times ... what
is the chance that the next toss will
also be a "Head"? The chance is
simply ½ (or 0.5) just like ANY toss
of the coin. What it did in the past will
not affect the current toss!
Independent probability
Example: There is a red 6-sided fair
die and a blue 6-sided fair die. Both
dice are rolled at the same time.
Let A be the event that the red die's
result is even. Let B be the event that
the blue die's result is odd. Are the
events independent?
Dependent events
Two events are said to be Dependent
when the outcome of the first event
influences the outcome of the second
event.
Example: If the Captain and the pirate
each shoot once, and the Captain
shoots first, what is the probability that
both the Captain and the pirate hit
each other's ships?
Dependent events
Example: Mrs. Andrews has to select
two students from 35 girls and 15 boys
to be part of a club. What is the
probability that both students are girls?
P = (35/50)x(34/49)
Example: LeBron and Steph will each
take one free throw during a shooting
drill. How likely is it that at least one
ball will sink?
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is defined as the
likelihood of an event or outcome
occurring, based on the occurrence of a
previous event or outcome.
The probability that an event occurs given
the knowledge that another event has
occurred.
Conditional probability
Example: If one card is drawn from a
standard pack of 52 playing cards, what is
the probability of drawing an ace or a
heart card?
Repeated trials probability
 Repeated trials refer to the outcomes of events
that repeat one or more times. The probability of
success (p) and failure (q) are used to determine
the total probability of n successes in a trial.
P = n r q
C p r n-r

Where
n = total number of trials
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure
r = refers to the success in series of n trials
Repeated trials probability
Example: Find the probability that a
couple having 3 children will have at least
one girl.

Example: In a multiple choice test, each

question is to be answered by selecting 1
out 4 different proposed answers of which
only one is right. If there are 10 questions
in the test, what is the probability of
getting 7 right of pure guess work?
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
1. In tossing a die what is the
probability of getting a prime number?
 A. 1/3 C. 1/2
 B. 3/5 D. 2/3
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
2. A group of three people enter a
theatre after the lights head dimmed.
They are shown to the correct group
of 3 seats by the usher. Each person
holds a number stub. What is the
probability that each is in the correct
seat and stub?
 A. 1/6 C. 1/8
 B. ¼ D. ½
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
3. A number between 1 and 1000
(inclusive) is randomly selected. What
is the probability that will be divisible
by 4 and 5?
 A. 0.05 C. 0.075
 B. 0.025 D. 0.010
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
4. An urn contains 5 white, 3 black, 2
red balls. In getting one ball, what is
the probability that it is not red ball.
 A. 0.50 C. 0.80
 B. 0.30 D. 0.20
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
5. If two dice are tossed, what is the
probability of rolling a sum of 6 or 9?
 A. 1/4 C. 2/3
 B. ¾ D. 3/8
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
6. If one card is drawn from a
standard pack of 52 playing cards,
what is the probability of drawing an
ace or a heart card?
 A. 5/13 C. 3/4
 B. 4/13 D. 1/3
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
7. An urn contains 3 white balls and 1
black ball. Determine the probability of
drawing two white balls in succession
from the urn without replacing the ball
after each drawing.
 A. ½ C. ¼
 B. 2/3 D. 3/2
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
8. Two cards are drawn at random
from an ordinary deck of 52 cards.
Find the probability P that one is
spade and one is a heart.
 A. 3/51 C. 13/102
 B. 1/26 D. 2/51
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
9. The probability that both stages of a
2-stage missile will function correctly
is 0.95. the probability that the first
stage will function correctly is 0.98.
What is the probability that the second
stage will function correctly given that
the first one does?
 A. 0.99 C. 0.95
 B. 0.98 D. 0.97
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
10. A class has 12 boys and 4 girls. If
three students are selected at random
from the class, what is the probability
that they are all boys?
 A. 0.3928 C. 0.3543
 B. 0.4357 D. 0.6554
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
11.What is the probability that no
two people in a group of seven
having the same birthday.
Ans: 0.94
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
12. Two students are working
independently on a problem. Their
respective probabilities of solving a
problem are 1/3 and ¼. What is the
probability that at least one of them
will solve the problem?
 A. ½ C. 2/3
 B. 5/8 D. 5/6
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
13. On a shooting practice, the
probability of three trainee cops to hit
the target is 30%, 40% and 45%,
respectively. If each fired their guns
aiming to the target, what is the
probability that only one cop hit the
target?
 A. 0.442 C. 0.323
 B. 0.452 D. 0.224
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
14. A coinis tossed 10 times. What is
the probability of getting head exactly
6 times?
 A. 0.4042 C. 0.354
 B. 0.2073 D. 0.2051
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
15. Find the probability that a couple
having 3 children will have at least one
girl.
 A. 1/8 C. 5/8
 B. 3/8 D. 7/8
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
16. If seven fair coins are
simultaneously tossed in the air, what
is the probability that at least one will
land heads up?
 A. 0.144 C. 0.971
 B. 0.286 D. 0.992
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
17. A manufacturer has determined
that a certain machine averages one
defective bolt for every 1000 it
produces. What is the probability that
an order of 200 bolts will have one or
more defective?
 A. 0.352 C. 0.181
 B. 0.245 D. 0.345
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
18. In a multiple choice test, each
question is to be answered by
selecting 1 out 4 different proposed
answers of which only one is right. If
there are 10 questions in the test,
what is the probability of getting 7 right
of pure guess work?
 A. 0.0025 C. 0.0031
 B. 0.0076 D. 0.0045
END