PROBABILITY

FOR LECTURE PURPOSES ONLY

PREPARED BY: MANUEL MACAM
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
1. Find the number of possible outcomes
when a spinner can land on either red,
blue, or green and you spin twice.
Answer: 9
Solution: R, R B, B G, G
R, G B, R G, B
R, B B, G G, R
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
2. How many three-dish menus can be
selected from a set of 2 main courses,
3 appetizers and 2 desserts?
Answer: 12
Solution:
M1, A1, D1 M1, A3, D1 M2, A2, D1
M1, A1, D2 M1, A3, D2 M2, A2, D2
M1, A2, D1 M2, A1, D1 M2, A3, D1
M1, A2, D2 M2, A1, D2 M2, A3, D2
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
3. A student is choosing between HUMMS
and STEM as his strand of study and intend
to enroll at UP, DLSU or ADMU. How many
ways can a course and a school be chosen?
Answer: 6
Solution:
HUMMS, UP STEM , UP
HUMMS, DLSU STEM, DLSU
HUMMS, ADMU STEM, ADMU
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
4. Two-digit numbers can be formed
from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
and 9
a) How many two-digit numbers can be
formed?
b) How many of these are even?
c) How many of these are odd?
d) How many are divisible by 3?
e) How many are less than 50?
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
4. a) How many two-digit numbers can
be formed?
Answer: 90
Solution:
1st digit 2nd digit
9 options 10 options
(9)(10) = 90 two-digit numbers
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
4. b) How many of these are even?
Solution: 45
Solution:
1st digit 2nd digit
9 options 5 options
(9)(5) = 45 two-digit even numbers
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
4. c) How many of these are odd?
Answer: 45
Solution:
1st digit 2nd digit
9 options 5 options
(9)(5) = 45 two-digit odd numbers
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
4. d) How many are divisible by 3?
Solution:
The most convenient way to
determine the number of two-digit
that are divisible by 3 is to list these
numbers.
There are 30 two-digit that are
divisible by 3.
Review on Fundamental
Counting Principle
Consider the given problems:
4. e) How many are less than 50?
Solution:
The second digit has no restriction.
1st digit 2nd digit
4 options 10 options
(4)(10) = 40 two-digit numbers
that are less than 50
The Concept of Probability
Probability as a general concept can be
defined as the chance of an event
occurring.
Uses of Probability
• serving or playing games of chance,
such as card games, slot machines, or
lotteries.
• fields of insurance, investments, and
weather forecasting
• Politics, sports analysis and in various
other areas
The Concept of Probability
ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY
• An experiment is a chance process that leads to well-
defined results called outcomes.
• An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
• A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes in
an experiment
• An event consists of a set of outcomes of a probability
experiment. It is a subset of a sample space
• Each outcome is the sample point, otherwise called
member or element.
The Concept of Probability
Sample Space

1. Creating a three-dish menus selecting from a set

of 2 main courses, 3 appetizers and 2 desserts

2. A family has 3 children – using B to stand for

boy and G for girl
3. Roll a die and then toss a coin
4. Drawing a card from a deck
The Concept of Probability
Sample Space
Some sample spaces for various
probability experiments are shown here.
The Concept of Probability

Sample space for rolling a pair of dice

The Concept of Probability

Sample space for drawing a card

The Concept of Probability
Event

1.The event A in which the coin comes up heads.

2. The event B in which the coin comes up

tails and the die, an odd number.
The Concept of Probability
Classical Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces to
determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen.

NOTE:
You do not actually have to perform the
experiment to determine that
probability.

Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman

The Concept of Probability
Classical Probability
Probabilities can be expressed as fractions,
decimals, or—where appropriate—percentages.
If you ask, “What is the probability of getting
a head when a coin is tossed?”, typical
responses can be any of the following three.
“One-half.” , “Point five.” or “Fifty percent.”
NOTE:
Strictly speaking, a percent is not a probability. However, in
everyday language, probabilities are often expressed as percent.
(i.e., there is a 60% chance of rain tomorrow). For this reason,
some probabilities will be expressed as percent.
Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman
The Concept of Probability
Classical Probability
The probability of any event E is
Number of outcomes in A
Total number of outcomes in the sample space
This probability is denoted by
n( A)
P( A) =
n( S )
where n(A) is the number of outcomes in A
and n(S) is the number of outcomes in the
sample space S.
Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman
The Concept of Probability
Example:
1. Find the probability of getting a red face
card when randomly drawing a card from
an ordinary deck.
SOLUTION
There are 52 cards in an ordinary deck of cards,
and there are 6 red face cards (jack, queen, and
king of hearts and jack, queen, and king of
diamonds). Hence, the probability of getting a red
face card is 6 3
P ( red face ) = =  0.115
52 26
Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman
The Concept of Probability
Example:
2. If a family has three children, find the
probability that exactly two of the three
children are girls.
SOLUTION
The sample space for the gender of the children for a
family with three children has eight outcomes, that is,
BBB, BBG, BGB, GBB, GGG, GGB, GBG, and BGG.
Since there are three ways to have two girls, namely,
GGB, GBG, and BGG, therefore
3
P ( two girls ) = = 0.375
8
Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman
The Concept of Probability
Example:
3. A card is drawn from an ordinary deck.
Find the probability of getting
a. A king
b. The 4 of spades
c. A face card (jack, queen, or king)
d. A red card
e. A club

Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman

The Concept of Probability
Example:
SOLUTION
a. There are 4 kings in the event A and a total of 52 cards;
hence, 4 1
P ( king ) = =  0.077
52 13
b. Since there is only one 4 of spades, the probability is
1
P ( 4 of spades ) =  0.019
52

Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman

The Concept of Probability
Example:
SOLUTION
c. There are 3 face cards for each suit, and there are 4 suits
(hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades). So there are 12 face
cards; hence,
12 3
P ( face card ) = =  0.231
52 13
SOLUTION
d. There are 26 red cards: 13 diamonds and 13 hearts.
Hence, 26 1
P ( red card ) = = = 0.5
52 2
Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman
The Concept of Probability
Example:
SOLUTION
d. Since there is only one 13 clubs, the probability is
13 1
P ( clubs ) = = = 0.25
52 4
The Concept of Probability
Example:
4. When a single die is rolled, find the
probability of getting a 9.
SOLUTION
Since the sample space is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, it is
impossible to get a 9. Hence, the
probability is
0
P (9) = = 0
6
The Concept of Probability
Example:
5. When a single die is rolled, what is the
probability of getting a number less than 7?
SOLUTION
Since all outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less
than 7, the probability is
6
P ( number less than 7 ) = = 1
6
The Concept of Probability
Complementary Events
Another important concept in probability
theory is that of complementary events. When a
die is rolled, for instance, the sample space
consists of the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
The event E of getting odd numbers consists
of the outcomes 1, 3, and 5. The event of not
getting an odd number is called the
complement of event E, and it consists of the
even number outcomes 2, 4, and 6.
The Concept of Probability
Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event:
1. Selecting a month that has 31 days
2. Selecting a day of the week that begins
with the letter T
3. Rolling two dice and getting a sum that is
an odd number
4. Tossing 3 coins and getting 2 heads.

Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman

The Concept of Probability
Finding Complements
SOLUTION
1. Select a month that has fewer than 31 days, February,
April, June, September, and November.
2. Select a day of the week that does not begin with a T,
i.e., Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday.
3. Rolling two dice and getting a sum that is an even
number, i.e., a sum of 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, or 12.
4. Toss 3 coins and get no tail, 2 tails or 3 tails,
i.e., HHH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT

Elementary Statistics 9th Ed. by Allan Bluman

The Concept of Probability
Seatwork: Determine the probability of
occurrence of the following single events
1. A “4” appears in a single toss of a die
2. An even number appears in a single toss of
a die
3. A head appears in a single toss of a coin
4. Either a head or a tail appears in a single
toss of a coin
The Concept of Probability
Seatwork: Determine the probability of
occurrence of the following single events
5. An ace appears in drawing a card from a
deck of 52 cards
6. A red “King” or a black “7” appears in
drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards
7. A blue or a red ball is drawn from a box of
5 blue and 8 red balls
8. A green ball is drawn from a box of 4 blue
and 4 red balls
The Concept of Probability
Seatwork: Determine the probability of
occurrence of the following single events
9. The sum of “6” appears in a single toss
of a pair of dice

10. A ball drawn from a box of 4 green, 5

red and 6 black ball is not green.

Statistics and Probability by Calaca, Uy, Noble, Manalo (page 28)

The Concept of Probability
Addition Rule – P(A or B)
which is the probability that either event A
occurs or event B occurs (or they both occur) as
the single outcome of a procedure. To find
P(A or B), we begin by adding the number of
ways that A can occur and the number of
ways that B can occur, but add without
double counting. The word “or” in the
addition rule is associated with
the addition of probabilities.
The Concept of Probability
Addition Rule – P(A or B)
Given two events, A and B, the probability of
their union, A  B, is equal to
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A  B)
Mutually Exclusive Events
When two events A and B are mutually exclusive
or disjoint, it means that when A occurs, B
cannot, and vice versa. This means that the
probability that they both occur, P(A  B), must
be zero.
The Concept of Probability
Multiplication Rule – P(A and B)
If two events A and B are independent, the
probability that both A and B occur is

P(A  B) = P(A)P(B)
The Concept of Probability
Illustrative example:
1) Two fair coins are tossed, and the outcome is
recorded.

These are the events of interest:

A: Observe at least one head
B: Observe at least one tail
Define the events A, B, A  B, A  B, and Ac
as collections of simple events, and find
their probabilities.
The Concept of Probability
Solution:
a) A = {HH, HT, TH}
P(A) = 3/4
b) Ac = {TT}
P(Ac) = 1/4
c) B = {TT, HT, TH}
P(B) = 3/4
The Concept of Probability
Solution:

d) A  B = {HH, HT, TH}  {TT, HT, TH}

= {HH, HT, TH, TT}
P(A  B) = 4/4 = 1
e) A  B = {HH, HT, TH}  {TT, HT, TH}
= {HT, TH}
P(A  B) = 2/4 = 1/2
The Concept of Probability
Illustrative example:
2) A single card is drawn from a well-shuffled
deck of cards. Find the probability that the card
drawn is
a) an ace or spade
b) an red or king

Solution:
a) A  B = [4/52 + 13/52 ] − 1/52 = 4/13

b) A  B = [26/52 + 4/52] − 2/52 = 7/13

The Concept of Probability
Illustrative example:
3) A box contains 5 plastic and 8 rubber balls.
Find the probability that both balls are rubber if
two balls are selected
a) without replacement
b) witreplacement
Solution:
a) A  B = [4/52 + 13/52 ] − 1/52 = 4/13

b) A  B = [26/52 + 4/52] − 2/52 = 7/13