December 21, 2018 (08:22) | Publication: EIU - Industry Reports

Philippines - Healthcare report: Disease trends

Population health

At an estimated 68.9 years in 2017, average life expectancy in the Philippines is similar to that in Indonesia, but below those of Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and
Singapore. We expect average life expectancy in the Philippines to reach 69.6 years by 2022.
The Philippines also performs poorly in terms of infant mortality, with an estimated 21.4 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2017. This is far higher than in Thailand,
Malaysia and Singapore, and slightly higher than that in Vietnam. However, the infant mortality rate is on a decisive downward trend, having dropped from 25.9 per
1,000 live births in 2007, and we expect it to reach 19.2 per 1,000 births by 2022.

Demographic trends

The population will continue to grow rapidly in 2018-22, at around 1.5% a year on average, owing to a preference for large families in the predominantly Roman
Catholic country.
The birth rate is slowing, however, owing in part to measures contained in the 2012 Reproductive Health Bill, which guarantees universal access to contraception, sex
education and maternal care. The law guaranteed universal access to contraception, sex education and maternal care.
Despite the law, access to contraception remains difficult for poorer families and in rural areas. High fertility rates among teenagers remain a challenge.

Population dynamics in the Philippines will be favourable for economic growth over the next five years, however. The proportion of the working-age population (15-64
years) will rise marginally from an estimated 62.1% in 2017 to 63.1% in 2022, helping to support economic growth and healthcare spending.
The young-age dependency ratio is extremely high but will fall in the forecast period from 51.1% in 2017 to 48.4% in 2022.

Major disease trends

According to the WHO, non-communicable diseases account for 61% of deaths in the Philippines. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the leading causes of
death in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, neoplasms, pneumonia, cerebrovascular diseases, hypertensive diseases, diabetes mellitus, other heart diseases, tuberculosis,
and chronic lower respiratory infections.
Cancer is the third leading cause of adult deaths and the fourth for children, according to government data. In November 2018 the Senate passed a bill seeking to
establish a Philippine Cancer Centre and to establish a national control programme.
Although the adult prevalence of HIV and AIDS is still low-at under 0.1% of the population-the UN said that in August 2017 the Philippines had the fastest-growing
number of HIV-related cases in the Asia-Pacific region. The Philippine DOH reported 11,103 new cases in 2017; up by 20% from 9,264 in 2016. The Philippine
National AIDS Council has warned that if measures are not taken, there will be 250,000 Filipinos living with HIV-AIDS by 2030.

Risk factors

According to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, 18.7% of Filipino adults were daily smokers in 2015. However, the proportion is far higher among males (33.9%) than
among females (just 3.6%). In 2017 the president signed an executive order banning smoking in public places nationwide. The govern-ment is also considering raising
the legal age for smoking to 21, from 18 currently.
The introduction of a "sin tax" on alcohol and tobacco products in 2013 has reduced the prevalence of smoking among the young and poor. In March 2016 graphic
health warnings on both local and imported cigarette packaging were introduced. According to a 2018 survey the Philippines now has the lowest smoking rate among
the five big Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries.
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