POPULATION DYNAMICS

1. The RAPID INCREASE in the world’s population.

2. Recent DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
3. The causes of a change in POPULATION SIZE
4. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL
5. Reasons for CONTRASTING RATES of
POPULATION CHANGE.
6. The current DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDE
7. OVERPOPULATION and UNDERPOPULATION
8. POPULATION POLICIES
 Task: Get the recent demographic
figures of the following:
• Total population
• Literacy rate
• Male-female ratio
• Life expectancy at birth
• Population growth rate
• Total no. of hospitals
• Population density
• IMR
 1. RAPID INCREASE IN WORLD’S POPULATION

Watch video on following link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcDjlDxQebI

Task: Analyse the video and write a short paragraph of about 200 words.
– FERTILITY:
• Most common measure is BR,
• Other advanced level of study
– TFR: no. of children a women has during her lifetime.
• The total populn. and the rate of populn. Gwth are
much higher in LEDCs than MEDCs.
• MEDCs:high populn. gwth in 19th and early 20th cent.
• LEDCs:high populn. gwth since 1950
• Refer next ppt slide
• “Population Explosion”-Highest global popul GR
reached in 1960s in LEDCs : 2.4%
• By late 1990s:GR declined to 1.2%
• Population Momentum: Numbers being added each yr.
 THE WORLD’S TEN LARGEST COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF POPULATION, 2012 & 2050

2012 2050
COUNTRY Population (mill) COUNTRY Population (mill)
China 1350 India 1691
India 1260 China 1311
USA 314 USA 423
Indonesia 241 Nigeria 402
Brazil 194 Pakistan 314
Pakistan 180 Indonesia 309
Nigeria 170 Bangladesh 226
Bangladesh 153 Brazil 213
Russia 143 Congo 194
Japan 128 Ethiopia 166
Q. Look at above table and answer the following
a. Show the data for 2012 on an outline map of the world.
b. Briefly describe the changes that are forecast to occur by 2050.
• CAUSES OF A CHANGE IN POP. SIZE?

• RATE OF NATURAL CHANGE??

– Natural increase and natural decrease?#?

• RATE OF NET MIGRATION???

• WHAT IS DTM????
• CAUSES OF A CHANGE IN POP?
– BR,
– DR
– MIGRATION
• WHAT IS RATE OF NATURAL CHANGE??
– The diff b/n BR and DR.
– Natural Increase: if it is positive
– Natural Decrease: if it is negative
Region BR DR
World 20 8
MEDCs 11 10
LEDCs 22 8
Africa 36 11
Asia 18 7
Latin 19 6
America/Carribean
N. America 13 8
Oceania 18 7
Europe 11 11
Q. Find out the Natural Increase or Decrease of the Regions mentioned in the above
Table.
• WHAT IS NET MIGRATION???
– Immigration rate- the no. of immigrants per 1000
– Emigration rate- the no. of emigrants per 1000
– NET MIGRATION is diff b/n immigration rate and
emigration rate.
• Allocate the following the countries in different
stages of DTM
– Chad -Ghana
– Egypt -Mexico
– India -UK
– Jamaica -Bangladesh
– Chile -Brazil
– China -NZ
– Kenya -USA
➢CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH STAGE
• The high stationary stage(Stage 1)
-BR is high & stable, DR is high & fluctuating (famine,
disease, war)
-popul. GR is very slow, many periods of decline
-IMR is high, life expectancy is low
-max popul. is <15yrs of age
-pre industrial, mostly rural & subsistence agric
• The early expanding stage (Stage 2)
-DR declines, BR at previous level (social reform slow)
-RNC increases to peak
-IMR falls, life expectancy increases
-proportion of popul. <15 yrs increases
- rural to urban migration
• The late expanding stage (Stage 3)
-IMR low, BR declines (social reform)
-slow urbanisation & life expectancy increases
-countries in this stage experience low DR than nations in
final stage (relatively young popul)
• The low stationary stage (Stage 4)
-BR & DR are low
-BR slightly higher (changing economic condn)
-popul GR is slow.
-DR rise as avg age of popul increases
-life expectancy still improves
• The natural decrease stage (Stage 5)
-BR fallen below DR, resulting in RNC,many countries
-popul declining (absence of net migration inflow)
-ex E. or S. Europe
• Criticism
-too Eurocentric, many LEDCs not follow & migration(excluded)
• REASONS FOR CONTRASTING RATES OF
POPULATION CHANGE
– 3 factors:
• Fertility
• Mortality
• Migration (discussed in separate topic later)
– FERTILITY:
• Most common measure is BR,
• Other advanced level of study
– TFR: no. of children a women has during her lifetime.
2012: Highest and Lowest TFR

Highest TFR Lowest TFR

NIGER 7.1 TAIWAN 1.1
SOMALIA 6.4 LATVIA 1.1
BURUNDI 6.4 SINGAPORE 1.2
MALI 6.3 BOSNIA-HER 1.2
ANGOLA 6.3 S.KOREA 1.2
• Factors affecting FERTILITY
– Demographic (IMR high, to compensate for expected death)
– Social/cultural (tradition-Africa, female literacy, religion)
– Economic (children as economic assets, age of marriage)
– Political (1930s Germany/Italy/Japan, concessions)
• Factors affecting MORTALITY
– LE: avg. no. of yrs a newborn infant can expect to live under
current mortality levels.
» 1900 30yrs
» 1950-55 46yrs
» 1980-85 60yrs
» 2012 70yrs
– Highest: N. America (79yrs),
– Lowest: Africa (58yrs), lowest individual: Sierra Leone (47yr)
9 other countries <50 yrs, from Africa
– 20th cent, fall in mortality
» Marked after WW2
– Apart from challenges of the phy. env. in many
developing countries, a range of social & eco.
Factors
• Contribute to high rates of infectious diseases, these are
– Poverty
– Poor access to healthcare (otherwise treatable condn. as
malaria/TB, fatal)
– Antibiotic resistance
– Changing human migration patterns
– New infectious agent
• Overcrowded & insanitary condn.: TB & Cholera
• Poor nutrition & deficient immune system, risk
– Rich & Poor countries: causes of deaths
• Rich- high income, 50% deaths among adults >80 yrs
» CVD, cancer, diabetes, dementia
• Poor-
– Middle income: almost same as high income count + HIV/AIDS,
TB, road accidents.
– Least income: 40% deaths (<14 yrs age gp), CVD + infectious
diseases as TB, diarrheal infection & malaria +
pregnancy complications & child birth.

Q. What are the main differences in the causes of

death b/n countries at different levels of economic
development?.
• WHAT IS A POPULATION POLICY?
– Involve measures->govt. aim->influence->pop size,
growth, distrib./composition.
– PRO NATALIST:
• Promotion of large families to enhance PG
– ANTI NATALIST
• Encourage fewer births to reduce PG
• HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
– India, first developing country in 1952,
• Policy designed to curb PG
• Govt. backed “Family Planning Programme”
• BR fell:
– 45/1000 (1951-61) -> 41/1000 (1961-71) -> 33/1000 (1987) ->
29/1000 (1995) -> 22/1000 (2012)
• ANTI NATALIST- CHINA
– 1.3 bill, 4th largest in land area, 25% infertile land
– Only 10% arable, high pop density in E. & S. of China.
– Twist & Turns in Pop. Policy Design
• 1949: communist revolution, PG encouraged
– Economic, military, strategic reasons.
• 1956: first Birth Control Programme, PG discouraged
– Pop reached 600 mill, pressure on food supply & resources.
• 1958: ‘Great Leap Forward’, PG encouraged
– Focus on industrialisation & modernisation so was for births
(encouraged).
• 1962: Catastrophic famine, 20 mill died
• 1964: new phase of Birth Control, PG encouraged
– BR peaked at 45/1000, lasted from 1966 to 1971
• 1970: third family planning programme, PG encouraged
– Late, sparse, few
• 1979: One Child Policy, PG severely encouraged
– Optimum pop (700 mill) to achieve by 2080.
• PRO NATALIST- FRANCE
– Ageing pop.
– Decrease in supply of Labour
– Pop. Decline
– HIST. BACKGROUND:
• 1939:
– Financial incentives to mothers, for looking after children at home.
– Subsidised holidays
– Banned on sale of contraceptives
• Recent Measures:
– Longer maternity & paternity leave
– Higher child benefits
– Tax allowances
– Pension scheme for mothers/housewives
– 30% reduction on all public transport
– Child oriented policies ex provision of creches, day nurseries
– Preference in govt housing schemes.