Market Insight Q3 2019 (Batch 1) PDF

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Leads Property Services Indonesia | Research & Consultancy | Jakarta Property Market Q3 2019
1
TABLE
CO NTENTS Qoq SUMMARY
TRENDING TOPIC sector sector
3 5 10
sector us
13 16
QoQ SUMMARY
OFFICE CBD OFFICE OUTSIDE CBD
Increased by 0.84% to 6.82 million sqm Increased by 1.14% to 3.82 million sqm
Increased by 13.20% to 37,890 sqm Decreased by 3.80% to 16,590 sqm
Decreased by 0.13% to 75.73% Decreased by 0.53% to 81.02%
CONDOMINIUM RETAIL
Increased by 0.26% to 252,964 units Stands at 3.29 million sqm
Increased by 0.45% to 211,490 units Insignificantly increased to 3.07 million sqm
Decreased by 0.15% to 83.69% Insignificantly increased to 93.27%
3
Having endured years of an overcrowded Jakarta With such foreseen long-term plan, landlords and
TR EN D I N G destined for an eventual successor, on August

2019, the Indonesian government finalized plans
to move forward to relocate Indonesia’s capital city,
or developers in its surrounding regions might look
at the potential of property value improvement in
the future as their regions will receive robust
t pic
to the island of East-Kalimantan, as part of development due to the new capital city.
Jokowi’s plan to de-centrify the economy. The new
capital city is planned to stand on an at-least Ultimately, the relocation into the new capital city
40,000 hectare of land. East Kalimantan is also would bring potential space vacancy in existing
considered as “safe” region when it is associated government office buildings in Jakarta. Review of
with natural disasters occurrence. land-use of such assets would be required from the
town planning point of view, especially for the
Such future capital city is planned to be situated government-use zoning. Their existing zoning
around North Penajam Paser Regency and Kutai would, in turn, be converted into commercial-use
Kartanegara Regency, a strategic location close to zoning in order to give certainty of regulation for the
already-established cities such as Balikpapan and commercial use. Such buildings would require
Samarinda. As the relocation would require commercialization of space to be left occupied,
massive funding, hence it is predicted to take e.g. hence, renovation might be further required in
“
10 years, including land preparation, development order to be in proper condition for commercial use.
of infrastructures, buildings etc. Occupiers might have more options to rent
business space in Jakarta by then. However, rents
Property sector is expected to become an of such assets are expected to be affordable in
economic driver. To support the governments, order to attract tenants.
developers might participate in providing affordable
housing developments, including its facilities to
“ house government officers that would be stationed
in the new capital cities. Further commercial
sectors such as shopping malls, retail arcades,
hotels and educational such as schools,
universities added with hospitals, and probably
sport facilities are expected to take place.
4
OFFICE
office
5
OFFICE cbd
S U P P LY , D E M A N D A N D O C C U PA N C Y R AT E
SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION
Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Occupancy Rate
7.50 100%
Kuningan
Thamrin Persada
7% Gatot 2%
Subroto 6.00 80%
Sqm semi gross (in Millions)

15%
4.50 60%
Mega
Sudirman Kuningan
29% 8%
3.00 40%
Other
10% 1.50 20%
Senayan
2% Rasuna
SCBD 0.00 0%
Said
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
12% 15%
S U P P LY DEMAND O C C U PA N CY
Cumulative CBD office supply has reached to More office demand comes from business After registering occupancy rate of 75.86%
6.8 million sqm by Q3 2019, due to expansion or relocation to bigger space in in the previous quarter, occupancy rate in
completion of 57,000 sqm from World Capital newer building. Sector-wise, E-Commerce and Q3 2019 insignificantly dropped by 0.12
Tower that is located in Mega Kuningan Co-Working Space remain as the major percentage-points QoQ or 3.73 percentage-
corridor. There was no completion of office demand driver for office space. points YoY, arriving at 75.74%.
building from another corridors.
Cumulative demand was registered at 5.17 Slow leasing activity indicated with
Sudirman corridor continue as the largest million sqm by Q3 2019. However, such insignificant office demand amidst over-
contributor of office existence (29%), followed figure showed an improvement as the supply situation brings further decline in
by Rasuna Said and Gatot Subroto with 15% quarterly net absorption registered another occupancy rate.
6
each. demand of 37,890 sqm, an increase of
13.20% QoQ.
OFFICE cbd
P R I C E R AT E S A N D O U T L O O K
P R I C E R AT E S IDR USD
500,000 50
With additional supply from a building
completion, average gross rental rate of Jakarta 400,000 40
Office CBD in Q3 2019 was pressurized a bit to
USD psm pm
IDR psm pm
IDR 359,450 psm pm (USD 25.36 psm pm) or 300,000 30
equivalent to circa 2% of correction QoQ.
200,000 20
Whilst for Strata Title Office in CBD Jakarta, it
was registered at IDR 59.43 million psm (USD 100,000 10
4,193.52 psm) in the running quarter, a slight
difference of 0.64% compared to the previous 0 0
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
quarter.
*Exchange Rate for Q3 2019 = IDR 14,174/ USD.
New completion project OUTLOOK

The CBD office market had noted that there has been a
BUILDING NAME GRADE CORRIDOR QTR SGFA (sqm)
slowing down in influx of supply into the market for the past
World Capital Tower A Mega Kuningan Q3 57,000 three-quarters this year. Subsequently, average rent has also
been pushed down further.
Despite the relaxing speed of newly completed office
FUTURE project buildings and pressurized market rent figure, CBD office
market is still expected to struggle to increase occupancy
BUILDING NAME GRADE CORRIDOR QTR SGFA (sqm) rate, considering that there are another two additional
projects (36,900 sqm) slated to complete by Q4 2019,
T Tower B Gatot Subroto Q4 13,400 coming from T-Tower in Gatot Subroto and Social Security
Tower in Rasuna Said corridor. Such condition still implies
Social Security Tower A Rasuna Said Q4 23,500
that Jakarta CBD is still facing tenant market condition.
Future Completion by 2019 36,900
7
OFFICE outside cbd
S U P P LY , D E M A N D A N D O C C U PA N C Y P R O J E C T I O N
SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Occupancy Rate
5.00 100%
West Central
Sqm semi gross (in Millions)

4.00 80%
21% 18%
East
3%
3.00 60%
2.00 40%
North
13%
1.00 20%
South - 0%
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
45%
S U P P LY DEMAND O C C U PA N CY
As of Q3 2019, Jakarta Outside-CBD office The Outside-CBD office market witnessed After registering occupancy rate of 81.55% in
market witnessed additional supply of 44,600 another leased space of 16,590 sqm during the previous quarter, the Jakarta Outside-CBD
sqm, cumulating total stock to approx. 3.82 the running quarter. Such leasing activities had Office market saw insignificant correction of
million sqm. Such additional supply comes brought cumulative demand of Jakarta occupancy rate.
from the completion of Arkadia Green Park Outside-CBD office market to reach 3.06
(Tower G) in South Jakarta. million sqm. E-commerce sector still Amidst such increasing supply figure, the
predominantly drive the office market demand. occupancy rate was registered at 81.02% as
For the rest of 2019, Jakarta Outside-CBD In the midst of softening market, net of Q3 2019, which in other words, a drop of
office market will expect another additional absorption in the running quarter showed a 0.53 percentage-points as compared to
supply of approx. 179,000 sqm from previous quarter.
8
decline of 3.80% compared to previous
developments in Central and South Jakarta. quarter of 17,240 sqm.
OFFICE outside cbd
P R I C E R AT E S a n d O U T L O O K
P R I C E R AT E S IDR USD
400,000 40
Average gross rental rate of Jakarta Outside-
CBD office market showed an insignificant
300,000 30
change in Q3 2019, which is around IDR
USD psm pm
IDR psm pm
244,820 psm pm (USD 17.27 psm pm) or a
slight increment of 0.7% (in IDR) or 0.5% (in 200,000 20
USD) QoQ.
100,000 10
Meanwhile, Jakarta Outside-CBD Strata-title
Office market price in Q3 2019 showed an
increment of 1.11% and registered at IDR 32.6 0 0
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
million psm or equivalent to USD 2,300 psm as
compared to the previous quarter.
*Exchange Rate for Q3 2019 = IDR 14,174/ USD.
New completion project OUTLOOK

BUILDING NAME GRADE CORRIDOR QTR SGFA (sqm)
Considering that there will be additional supply of
Arkadia Green Park - Tower G A TB Simatupang 3 44,600 179,000 sqm in the Jakarta Outside-CBD market, hence
developers are expected to offer more competitive rents
in order to attract tenants. Occupancy rate is also
FUTURE project predicted to be further pressurized by end of 2019. In
BUILDING NAME GRADE CORRIDOR QTR SGFA (sqm) spite of such massive additional supply, however,
Jakarta Outside-CBD market is still expecting expansion,
JB Tower B Kebon Sirih 4 36,100
mainly from domestic-driven business such as e-
Citra Tower Kemayoran B Kemayoran 4 40,000 commerce, supported with co-working space demand.
One Tower Kemayoran A Kemayoran 4 43,000 For Jakarta Outside-CBD market, location with good
accessibility to Mass Rapid Transport, will still be
The SIMA B TB Simatupang 4 59,900
9
preferred by occupiers.
Future Completion by 2019 179,000
CONDOMINIUM
condominium
10
CONDOMINIUM
S U P P LY , D E M A N D A N D O C C U PA N C Y
CUMULATIVE SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION
Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Sales Rate
325,000 100%
East CBD
12% 12%
260,000 80%
195,000 60%
North
Units
17% South
20%
130,000 40%
65,000 20%
Central
19% 0 0%
West
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
20%
S U P P LY DEMAND S A L E S R AT E
As the market witnessed additional launched Middle-low and middle segment condominium Since early 2019, Jakarta Condominium Sales
supply of 757 units in the running quarter, the continue to predominantly drive the overall rate has been relatively stable within the range
cumulative supply of condominium office demand of condominium market in Jakarta. of 83% - 84%.
market managed to register figure of 252,694 While, upper and luxury segment market has
units, increased by 0.26% QoQ or 0.71% YTD. been gradually recover since early 2019. In terms of quarterly sales rate, Jakarta
Condominium did not exhibit significant
The overall proportion of condominium market As of Q3 2019, the overall demand of growth. As of Q3 2019, Jakarta condominium
remains the same as the previous quarter condominium market in Jakarta has sales rate marked at 83.69% in this running
where South, West and Central Jakarta held cumulated to 211,490 units, increased by quarter or an insignificant change of 0.15
the vast majority. 0.45% QoQ and 0.87% YTD. percentage-points only.
11
CONDOMINIUM
SALES PR ICE an d OUTLOOK
Av e r a g e S A L E S P R I C E CBD Prime Areas Average
60.00
In align with the demand and occupancy rate,
the Jakarta Condominium sales price has been
45.00
stable in the last few past years. In Q3 2019, the
IDR million psm

average price of condominium market stood at
IDR 25.64 million per sqm, increased by 0.35% 30.00
QoQ or 0.92% YTD.
Average sales price in prime areas had 15.00

insignificantly grew by 0.88% QoQ to IDR 33.7
million per sqm. In contradict to prime areas, the 0.00
average price in CBD area got slightly
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
pressurized by 0.45% QoQ to IDR 50.04 million
per sqm.
N e w ly L a u n c h e d p r o j e c t OUTLOOK
LOCATION TOTAL Further new condominium launch is expected to become more
CONDOMINIUM PROJECT GRADE
(JAKARTA) UNITS limited as developers would still be focusing in absorbing
current products that have been on-selling since past four to
Core Cipete Upper South 199
five years.
Sentra Timur – Tower Jade Middle Lower East 342
Expensive land value would still be overshadowing
Defontein Menteng Upper Central 216 condominium market, urging landlords to develop more to
upper and luxury segments, especially in the CBD and its
surroundings. However, such segments would be more
relevant to end-user rather than investor as potential yield is
expected to be pressurized. No significant growth of rental is
Total Newly Launched Projects* 757 predicted to occur while capital value has already been
12
surging and reached its peak price-psychologically.
*Launched projects: Projects that are already offered to public
retail
retail
13
retail
S U P P LY , D E M A N D A N D O C C U PA N C Y R AT E
LEASED RETAIL SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION
Supply Demand Occupancy Rate
3.40 100%
West
3.20 80%
20% CBD
26%
3.00 60%
In million sqm
2.80 40%
South Central
18% 7%
2.60 20%
East
8%
2.40 0%
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
Q4 2018
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
North
21%
L E A S E D R E T A I L S U P P LY DEMAND O C C U PA N CY
As there was no additional supply of leased Jakarta leased retail absorption in Q3 2019 As of Q3 2019, the average occupancy rate
retail project in Q3 2019, hence retail showed a stable situation, registering 3.07 of leased retail in Jakarta is recorded at
cumulative supply stood at 3.29 million sqm, million sqm. Such condition happened due to 93.27%, which is relatively stable, yet
mostly located in CBD, North Jakarta and West stagnant market. Hence tenants tend to dropped by 1.16% YTD. The occupancy rate
Jakarta. Despite of the absence of additional expand their business to the outskirt of movement happened more in the Jakarta
supply in the running quarter, retail sector is Jakarta. Tenancy-wise, retail demand are Outside-CBD area.
expecting another incoming supply from predominated still by F&B’s in line with
several retail projects such as Titanium people’s lifestyle. Moreover, retail sector Location-wise, the average occupancy rate of
Square, Holland Village, AeonMall Southgate tends to target at family and also young Jakarta CBD and Jakarta Outside-CBD is
registered at 94.10% and 92.59%,
14
and Benhill Central, with total size of 100,000 people that spend their time more in malls,
sqm. especially on weekend. respectively.
retail
AV E R A G E B A S E R E N T & O U T L O O K
Overall Jakarta CBD Outside CBD
Av e r a g e B A S E R E N T
1,500,000
As of Q3 2019, overall base rents of shopping
mall for-lease market in Jakarta was recorded at 1,200,000
Average Base Rent in IDR

IDR 925,000 psm pm, an increase of 5.50 %
QoQ. Jakarta CBD continued to enjoy the highest 900,000
average base rent of IDR 1,222,400 psm pm.
600,000
In the meantime, Jakarta Outside-CBD showed
the least growth as compared to other areas, 300,000
which is around 3.52% QoQ, registering rents of
IDR 673,300 psm pm. Rents managed to grow 0
Q1 2019
Q2 2019
Q3 2019
2015
2016
2017
2018
still, especially on ground floor as such location
are commonly fully-occupied.
* Average Base Rent is based on asking price of specialty store located at ground floor.
Upcoming Project OUTLOOK

Considering that Jakarta Retail market still expects another
LOCATION SIZE 100,000 sqm of new supply in Outside-CBD in the next
BUILDING NAME QTR
(JAKARTA) (sqm) quarter, hence, rents are predicted to be more competitive. In
the meantime, occupancy rate is predicted to be pressurized,
Titanium Square East Q4 5,000 especially in the Jakarta Outside-CBD market.
Holland Village Central Q4 40,000
Tenants would be more selective to choose space for
AEON Mall Southgate South Q4 35,000 expansion as they tend to look into the traffic footfall and
developer’s capability in attracting tenants for their mall,
Benhill Central Mall Central Q4 20,000 considering that there are shut-down of some retail stores as
well as vacant spaces that is still overshadowing this market.
Despite facing market challenge, however, lifestyle concept is
15
still expected to fulfill the latest consumer preference.
TOTAL 100,000
CONTACT LEADS PROPERTY SERVICES INDONESIA
Corporate Occupier Portfolio Services
Office Services Industrial Services
Residential Services Project Management
Retail Services Property Management

Contact Us:
PT Leads Property Services Indonesia

Investment Services Research & Consultancy
Indonesia Stock Exchange Building
Tower I, 26th Floor
Jl Jend. Sudirman Kav 52-53
Jakarta 12190
Hendra Hartono
Indonesia
CEO
Ph. (+62) 21 2903 5111
Fx. (+62) 21 2903 5115 hendra.hartono@leads-property.com
Email:
info@leads-property.com Darsono Tan
Senior Director
darsono.tan@leads-property.com
Disclaimer: This report should not be replied upon as a basis for
entering into transactions without seeking specific and professional
advice. Whilst facts have been rigorously checked, Leads Property can IGAM Savitri
take no responsibility for any damage or loss suffered as a result of any
inadvertent inaccuracy within this report. Information contained herein Senior Director
should not, in whole or part, be published, reproduced, or referred to
without prior approval. igam.savitri@leads-property.com

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Increased by 13.20% to 37,890 sqm Decreased by 3.80% to 16,590 sqm

Decreased by 0.13% to 75.73% Decreased by 0.53% to 81.02%

Increased by 0.26% to 252,964 units Stands at 3.29 million sqm

Increased by 0.45% to 211,490 units Insignificantly increased to 3.07 million sqm

Decreased by 0.15% to 83.69% Insignificantly increased to 93.27%

TR EN D I N G destined for an eventual successor, on August

Sqm semi gross (in Millions)

*Exchange Rate for Q3 2019 = IDR 14,174/ USD.

New completion project OUTLOOK

Despite the relaxing speed of newly completed office

Sqm semi gross (in Millions)

New completion project OUTLOOK

IDR million psm

Average sales price in prime areas had 15.00

Average Base Rent in IDR

Upcoming Project OUTLOOK

Office Services Industrial Services

Residential Services Project Management

Retail Services Property Management

PT Leads Property Services Indonesia

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