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Pragyaan Article Dividend PDF
Pragyaan Article Dividend PDF
ABSTRACT
The objective of corporate management is generally the maximization of the market value of the enterprise i.e., wealth.
The market value of common stock of a company is influenced by its policy regarding allocation of net earnings into
plough back of profit and the payout while maximizing the market value of shares. So the dividend policy should be as
inclined as to satisfy the interest of shareholders as well as to attract the potential investors and the positive reception in the
market price of share. The present paper is a modest attempt to logically and empirically thrash out the dividend practice
of Pharama and Paper industries in India with reference to the selected companies.
Keywords: Dividend Policy, Dividend Payout, Earning Per Share, Dividend Per Share, Price Earning Ratio, Market
Price of Share.
France, Leithner and Zimmermann (1993) in West payout ratios vary across industries and time. The
Germany, UK, France and Switzerland and Lasfer results also reveal that the dividend behaviour of the
(1996) in UK. Dewenter and Warther (1998) Malaysian companies is sensitive to the changes in
compare dividend policies of firms in USA and Japan earnings. Further, using Lintner's framework and
for the period from 1982 to 1993. Their results show panel regression methodology, the study found the
that U.S.A firms tend to choose stable dividend evidence of less stable dividend policies being pursued
policies whereas Japanese firms prefer to omit by the Malaysian companies. The results of the two-
dividend and follow relatively unstable dividend way fixed effects model reveal strong individual firm
policies. and time effects.
Researchers have recently started looking at the Sahadevan and Thiripalraju (1995) study the
dividend behaviour of companies in regulated and price behaviour with the help of monthly observations
emerging markets. Glen et. al. (1995) found of money supply and stock price variables. The study
substantial differences in dividend policies of observes that M3 and Sensex does not show any
companies in developed and emerging markets. They relationship among stock returns and broad money,
show that dividend payments are much lower in except for the period may 1980 March 1987. It found
emerging markets, and firms follow less stable no evidence across various sample periods on the
dividend policies, although they do have target payout direction of causal relationship between money supply
ratios. and stock prices.
Rozeffs (1982) study is the first to explicitly Rao (1999) studies market efficiency to
recognize the “role of insiders”. As one of the examine the response of stock prices to fiscal and
monitoring managers, he observes that companies monetary policy pronouncements, changes in
with higher levels of insider holding have less need to industrial policy, changes in administered price policy,
signal company value through dividends. and changes in exchange rate policies of a particular
industry or a group of firms such as export - oriented
Kevin (1992) analyses the dividend firms and FERA companies concerned with fiscal and
distribution pattern of 650 non-financial companies monetary policy pronouncements, it has been found
which closed their accounts between September 1983 that union budgets were associated with increases in
and august 1984 and net sales income of 1 crore volatility, whereas half-yearly credit policy
rupees or more. He finds evidence for a sticky dividend announcement had no impact on the market
policy and concludes that a change in profitability is of movements. Changes in administered crisis seem to
minor importance have the maximum impact on the market.
Mahapatra and sahu (1993) analyses the Chaturvedi (2000) worked on the share price
determinants of dividend policy using the models behaviour in relation to P/E ratios in the pre- and post-
developed by Lintner (1956), for a sample of 90 announcement period of 90 stocks listed on the
companies for the period 1977-78 to 1988-89. They Bombay stock exchange (BSE). It has also been
found that cash flow is major determinant of dividend observed that two third of the post announcement
followed by net earnings. Further, their analysis shows cumulative abnormal returns where observed to occur
that past dividend and not past earning - is a in the control period + 21 days to 40 days implying
significant factor in influencing the dividend decision that stock prices do not adjust rapidly to the P/E
of companies. information. Gupta (2001) studied the market
Ariff and Johnson (1994) confirm Lintner's efficiency to examine the semi strong form of efficient
model for firms in Singapore. In Turkey, Adaoglu market hypothesis with the help of selected
(2000) finds that current earnings are the main accounting variables and macro economic variables. It
determinant of dividend payments. After deregulation was observed that the dividend per share was positively
of distribution of profits in Turkey in 1994, when and significantly related to the share prices. However,
firms were given the flexibility of choosing their own the return on equity did not show a significant
dividend policy, they followed unstable dividend influence but the growth in price earning ratio
policies. A study of the dividend behaviour of the showed little evidence. Likewise, the growth in
listed Malaysian companies (Pandey, 2003) shows that earning per share and leverage had negligible influence
in explaining the share prices.
Reddy (2002) examines the dividend behaviour Need for the Study
of Indian companies over the period 1990 2001.
Analysis of dividend trends for a large sample of stocks The dividend is the return on investment in a
share, it influences the market value of the share. So, it
traded on the NSE and BSE indicate that the
is felt that it is significant to study the dividend
percentage of companies paying dividends has
decision practices and impact of the same on market
declined from 60.5 per cent to 32.1 per cent in 2001
value of the share in pharma and paper industries with
and that only a few companies have consistently paid
a specific reference to Dr.Reddy's Laboratories and
the same levels of dividends. Tamil Nadu Newsprint limited, respectively.
According to Mohanty (1999), the theory of Objectives of the Study
finance considers a bonus issue as a financial illusion
because it does not add value to the company under The main objective of the study is to analyze the
the symmetric information assumption. This is dividend practices of pharma and paper industries and
because bonus issue is just an accounting adjustment. their impact on market value in India with specific
The accountant just makes a book entry by debiting reference to the selected sample companies. Hence, to
some free reserves account and crediting the share attain this prime objective, the following secondary
capital account. It does not directly affect any cash objectives are formulated and undertaken by the
inflow or outflow and, therefore, it is assumed that it study:
does not add value to the company. If a company 1) To review the studies on dividend practices at
distributes a known fraction of its earnings each year as global and Indian arena.
dividend, then the bonus issue will bring down the
dividend in proportion to the bonus ratio and hence 2) To find out the factors influencing the
the theoretical ex-bonus share price will go down in determinants of dividend payout.
proportion to the bonus ratio. However, the number
3) To find out the trends of dividend practices.
of shares the company holds increases in the same
proportion and hence the shareholders' wealth 4) To compare the market price of shares of
remains unchanged. If, however, management has selected companies to share value attained
better information about the future prospects of a through Modigliani and Millers model to the
company than the shareholders, then a bonus issue actual market price.
may convey some valuable information to the
shareholders. The shareholders, for example, may 5) To offer suggestions for the betterment of
dividend practices to the selected companies.
think that the management is more confident of the
future and hence the cash flows due to dividends will Limitation of the Study
increase after the bonus issue. In this case, the bonus
issue will be welcomed by the shareholders. Though the study is very comprehensive in
nature, but it is subject to the following limitations:
Empirical research on the effects of a bonus
issue on the stock prices gives evidence that the market The studies conducted with specific reference to
reacts favourably to a bonus issue. Fama, Fischer, Dr. Reddy's laboratories and Tamilnadu
Jensen, and Roll (1969) , Charest (1978), Grinblatt, Newsprint limited.
Masulis, and Titman (1984), for example, have This study has the limitations of approximation
documented evidence of a favourable reaction of the of values.
stock market to a bonus issue in the US.
Ramachandran (1988) and Obaidullah (1992) As the companies have provided limited data
found the similar evidences in India. When there is a some figures have been projected on the basis of
bonus issue, the ex-bonus price is usually higher than available data.
what the theoretical price should be. This is because The facts and figures are limited to the period of
the dividend rate (defined as a percentage of the face five years 2002-03 to 2006-07.
value) is not expected to change after the bonus issue.
When the company makes a bonus issue, the The ratios are generally calculated from the past
shareholders perceive that the management is financial statements and thus there are no
confident of the future. indicators of future.
However, with these limitations, the study is not these companies' annual reports. The appropriate
handicapped in any way with the non availability of analysis with regard to trends of EPS, D/P, MPS and
data. Yield are shown in the given tables.
Research Methodology Analysis of Tamilnadu Newsprint And Paper
Limited (TNPL)
The study is a case method of research that uses
secondary data as a main source. The data was Table I reveals the effect of Earning Per Share
collected from the CMIE (centre for monitoring (EPS) and Dividend Payout per share (DPS) on
Indian Economy), electronic database PROWESS. Market Price of the Share (MPS). In the year 2002-03,
Also the data was obtained from various financial the EPS was Rs 7.57 and the DPS was Rs 2.8 and the
dailies, business magazines, industry reports, annual MPS was Rs 25 and the yield of the share was 11.2 per
reports of the companies, concerned websites and so cent that was satisfactory. During the year 2003- 04,
on. The data used in the study relates to only two, the earnings increased to Rs 8.10 where as the
Hyderabad based companies, listed in the National dividend payout remaind same as in the last year, but
Stock Exchange (NSE), viz, Tamilnadu Newsprint and the MPS moved up to Rs 37.5 resulting in a decline in
Paper limited and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories. These the yield to 7.46 per cent. In the year 2004-05,
companies were selected based on their fundamental despite the sharp down fall in the EPS, the
performance. management did maintain the dividend pay-out.
Consequently the market price of the share increased
Data thus collected was processed and analysed to Rs 63.5 and though the yield declined to 4. 40
properly through financial tools, such as: MPS, EPS, percent. In the year 2005-06, it was found that the
DPS, P/E, Ke (cost of equity capital), r (rate of return) EPS was increased to nearly double against previous
and dividend theory proposed by Modigliani and year i.e. Rs 11.24, but the payout did not increase
Miller as well as the yield to an investor. Hence, the proportionately. It is due to this reason that the MPS
calculation of cost of equity (ke) and comparison to declined significantly from 63.5 to 59.65. During the
the rate of return (r) is made in the study. The MPS was year 2006-07, earnings increased to Rs 12.43, the
calculated by using the Modigliani and Miller method payout increased to Rs 4.00, the MPS increased to
and compared with actual MPS. Rs 117 and the yield declined to 3.41 per cent.
To calculate the market price of the share, the The above discussion seems to reveal that the
following Modigliani Miller approach is taken into dividend policy of the organization influences the
consideration. market price of the share. Here it is clear from the
MM formula for determining the market price analysis that though enough profit were not there, the
per share is as follows. MPS has gone up, because of the payment of the same
level of dividend. Another observation is that in the
P 1 = Po * (1+Ke) D1 years when there was good increase in EPS but but less
than proportionate increase in DPS, the MPS
Where:
declined.
P1 = Market price per share at the end of the year.
Calculations and Comparison of Ke with r
Po = Last year MPS
In Table 2 an attempt was made to calculate Ke (
D1 = Dividend per share for the year. the cost of equity capital) and compare it with r (rate of
return of the company). It would be noted that inspite
K = Cost of Capitalization or (cost of equity capital) of the efforts of the company in reducing cost of equity
Analysis and Discussion capital (Ke), rate of return (r) has fallen short of Ke
throughout the period. This implies that the rate of
To analyze the “dividend practices in Indian return of the company was not enough to meet its cost
Industry” the study has undertaken two companies as of capital.
sample cases, those are Tamilnadu newsprint and
paper limited and Dr. Reddy's laboratories. The MPS Based on MM Hypothesis
analysis is made on the basis of the data drawn from In Table 3 the attempts are made to calculate the
Table 1
Trends of EPS, D/P, MPS and Yield for TNPL
Year Earnings per Dividend Dividend Market price Yield %
share (EPS) payout % in rupees of share
(D/P)* (DPS) (MPS)
2002-03 7.57 28 2.8 25.00 11.20
2003-04 8.10 28 2.8 37.50 07.46
2004-05 5.47 28 2.8 63.50 04.40
2005-06 11.24 30 3.0 59.25 05.06
2006-07 12.43 40 4.0 117.00 03.41
Market price of the Share by using Modigliani and from Rs 2.8 to Rs 3 even then MPS has decreased
Miller (MM)* method. In the year 2002-03 the Ke from 71.74 to 66.95. In the year 2006-07 the Ke
was greater than r and the calculations shows that the decreased from 18.06 to 16.41 and the return r has also
MPS could be Rs 28.25 when the dividend pay out decreased from 15.41 to 14.93, the D/P has increased
was Rs 2.80. In the year 2003-04 though the dividend from Rs 3 to Rs 4, hence the MPS increased from
was stable, but the Ke has declined to some extent 66.95 to 132.19 which is almost double to the
comparatively, last year the market price of the share previous one.
was Rs 42.37. In 2004-05 the MPS was Rs 71.74,
which is higher than the previous year, it is due to From the above discussion, it follows that there
decrease in the cost of capital. In the year 2005-06 the is no association between D/P and MPS as with
calculated MPS was Rs. 66.95 which shows the constant D/P, MPS kept increasing and when the D/P
relationship of the dividend and MPS of the company increased the MPS decreased and at last when D/P
is negative because, when the dividend has increased increased by 33%, the MPS increased by 100%.
Table 2
Comparison of Ke and r for TNPL
Year Market price of Growth rate Cost of Equity Rate of Cost vis
share (Rs) capital (Ke) return (r) a vis return.
2002-03 25.00 13% 24.20% 12.64% r<Ke
2003-04 37.50 13% 20.46% 11.77% r<Ke
2004-05 63.50 13% 17.40% 8.15% r<Ke
2005-06 59.25 13% 18.06% 15.41% r<Ke
2006-07 117.00 13% 16.41% 14.93% r<Ke
MPS : Calculated Vs. Actual. Dividend Payout Per Share (DPS) and their effect on
Market Price of the Share (MPS). It would be noted
Table 4 demonstrates the difference between that during to 2002-03 to 2005-06, the MPS declined
the calculated MPS and actual MPS. It would be while DPS remained unchanged and EPS witnessed
noted that the investor perceptions reflected in the sharp ups and downs implying that DPS and EPS did
actual MPS differs from that calculated by using MM not have major impact on MPS or other market
model. It is also evidently shown by the chi square condition dominated their impact.
value that there is a significant difference in the market
value of share as per MM Hypothesis and the real price Calculation and Comparison of Ke with r
in the market. This is proved by the chi square
calculated value i.e. 50.96 which is higher than the In Table 7 calculation of cost of equity capital is
table value at 5 per cent significant level i.e. 9.49 done and compared with rate of return of the
company. From Table 7, it would be noted that cost of
Correlation Test equity capital of the company has remained stable
while the rate of returned declined substantially
Dividend payout is influenced by many factors during 2002-03 to 2005-06 to bounce back in 2006-
viz, interest rate, inflation rate, earnings per share etc. 07 that is the only year when rate of return exceeded
to find out the impact of such factors on the dividend cost of capital. This indicates remarkable
payout a correlation test was employed in the study improvement in performance of the company in the
with the suitable variables. The calculations of the year 2006-07.
same have been shown through Table 5.
MPS based on MM Hypothesis
In Table 5, the co-efficients of correlation of
D/P with Interest rate (x1), Inflation rate (x2), and Table 8 illustrates the calculation of the Market
Earning Per Share (x3) are reported. From Table 5, it price of the Share by using MM mode. It would be
would be noted that D/P is highly correlated with x1, noted MPS has not kept pace with the change in EPS
x2 and x3 with correlation coefficients 0.9354, 0.9703 or rate of return.
and 0.7814. Hence, it can be asserted that the
dividend decision of corporate firm can be influenced MPS: Calculated Vs. Actual
by the Parameters viz., Interest Rate, Inflation Rate Table 9 demonstrates the difference in the
and EPS. calculated market price of the share and the actual
Analysis of Dr Reddys Laboratories market price of the share. It would be noted that
calculated MPS is substantially different from the
Table 6 reveals the Earning Per Share (EPS) and actual MPS. As per Chi-square test, these values are
Table 3
Calculation of MPS through M.M. Model.
Table 5
Co efficient of Correlation of D/P with Interest Rates, Inflation Rates and EPS for TNPL
Year Interest rate (x1) Inflation rate (x2) EPS (x3) D/P (y)
2002-03 5.78 3.8 7.57 2.8
2003-04 5.03 3.9 8.10 2.8
2004-05 5.50 3.6 5.47 2.8
2005-06 6.31 4.7 11.24 3.0
2006-07 7.62 6.2 12.43 4.0
Co efficient of (x1,y) 0.9354 (x2,y) 0.9703 (x3,y) 0.7814
correlation
Table 6
Trends of EPS, D/P, MPS and Yield for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
Table 7
Year Market price of Growth rate Cost of Equity Rate of return Cost vis a
share (Po)(in Rs.) % capital (Ke)% (r) % vis return.
2002-03 1100 23 23.45 22.20 r < Ke
2003-04 905 23 23.55 15.04 r < Ke
2004-05 978 23 23.51 6.44 r < Ke
2005-06 739 23 23.67 9.12 r < Ke
2006-07 1420 23 23.26 27.60 r > Ke
Source: Dr. REDDY's Annual Financial statements.
Table 8. Calculation of MPS through M.M. Model for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
Table 9
Comparison of Calculated MPS with Actual MPS for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
Year Actual Market Calculated
Price Of Market
The Share Price Of
The Share
2002-03 891 1352
2003-04 797 1113
2004-05 724 1202
2005-06 1267 908
2006-07 647 1746
Average 865 1265
Chi square value 1270
Table 10
Co efficient of Correlation of D/P with Interest Rates, Inflation Rates and EPS for
Dr. Reddy's Laboratories
Year Interest rate (x1) Inflation rate (x2) EPS (x3) D/P (y)
2002-03 5.78 3.8 30.5 5
2003-04 5.03 3.9 37.01 5
2004-05 5.5 3.6 8.55 5
2005-06 6.31 4.7 27.53 5
2006-07 7.62 6.2 70.08 3.75
Co efficient of (x1,y) -0.8805 (x2,y) -0.9190 (x3,y) -0.8819
correlation
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