1/14/2016

Power Sector in Pakistan

- moving towards stability

at OICCI
Karachi, 8th December 2015

Mohammad Younus Dagha

Secretary
Ministry of Water & Power
Government of Pakistan

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Sequence
Power Sector in Pakistan – Taking a turn

• Improvements in 2014-15

• Lessening burden on Economy and Budget

• Facilitating New Initiatives

• Emerging Scenario

Prospects for Future Investments

Strategy adopted 2014-15

– a multi-dimensional approach
• Generation optimisation
• Improving Performance of GENCOs – optimizing output
• Maximising IPP plants availability in summers
• Removing Transmission and Distribution Constraints
• Cost minimisation – Improving Cash Flows
• Merit order dispatch – using the most economical plants first
• Introducing uniform load management – Priority to Industry
• Differentiated load management – higher thefts, lower supplies
• Bringing all DISCOs collections to CPPA
• Investment Facilitation
• Bringing in new policies
• Enabling and flexible security documents
• Accessibility to investors and regular reviews

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Optimising Generation
85% of derated
available capacity
21800
19919
16890

AVAILABLE DERATED GENERATION IN JULY 2015

Available Derated Generation in July 2015

Improved
Load Management

• Bringing predictability and stability in load

management
• Bringing Industrial loadshedding down from 8-12 hrs
to Zero since November 2014 (except for January and
Ramzan)
• Reducing Domestic loadshedding down from 8-11
hours to 6-8 hours

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Recoveries
(Annualised on past 12 months)
94.6%

92.3%

90.7%

88.6% 89.3% 89.2%

Cash Benefit to the
Sector - 2015:
Rs. 62.082 billion

T&D Losses
19.0% (Annualised on past 12 months)

18.9%
18.7%

18.2%
18.0%

Cash Benefit to the

17.9%
Sector – 2015 :
Around Rs. 10 billion

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Lower burden on GoP Budget

(in Billions of Rupees)
800 2.4% Subsidy Equity
GDP
700 1.7
600 %
GDP
500 342
400 0.76
138
300 776 %
GDP
430
200
334
100 292 221
0
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Genie of Circular Debt - Capped

516

320 329

OCT-14 DEC 2015(ACTUAL) DEC 2015 (IN CASE OF NO

IMPROVEMENT)

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Payments by CPPA (in percentages)

- 101 - 65 2013-14 2014-15
billion billion 104 106
101 102

85
77

PSO IPPs GasCos

Facilitating new initiatives

• Power Generation Policy 2015
• Transmission Lines Investment Policy
• Coal Based Power – Security Documents
• LNG Based Power – Security Documents
• On-going projects of 7000 MWs put on fast track
• CPEC – 8270 (out of 17045) MWs on execution path
• LNG – 3600 MWs have reached execution stage
• CASA-1000 project agreements executed
• Mega Hydel projects - on track
• Wheeling and Net metering policies introduced

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Power Demand and Supply

30803
27094 28168
25077
23107 23500 22940 28788
20213 26905
23434 25145
17582 17582
19690 21068
18402
17285
14174
12140
3250 4009
1811 1949 1263 2015

JAN-16 JUL-16 JAN-17 JUL-17 JAN-18 JUL-18 JAN-19 JUL-19 JAN-20 JUL-20

-5442 -5822 -3408

Peak Demand Available Generation Gap

Renewa Wind Import

bles
Changing Nuclear 4% Solar 2%
Nuclear Fuel Mix
LNG 2% 3% 2%
3%
4%

Coal
Hydel Imported Hydel
Oil 31% 20% 26%
39%

Coal LNG Gas

Gas 12%
Local 13%
21% Oil
4%
14%

Current Fuel Mix – 20,684 MWs Fuel Mix 2019-20 - 42,682 MWs

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C P E C - Power Projects
Additional Generation (MWs)
# Project Name
2016 2017 2018 Beyond
1 Port Qasim Coal Power Project 660 660
2&3 Engro Thar Coal Power Project 330 330
4 Sahiwal Coal Power Project 660 660
5 Salt Range Coal Project 300
6 HUBCO Coal Power Project 660
7&8 Thar Block I Coal Project 660 660
9 Solar - Zonerji 900
10 Wind – UEP 100
11 Wind – Dawood HydroChina 50
12 Wind – Sachal 50
13 Karot Hydro Power Project 720
14 Suki Kinari Hydro Power Project 870
Total 1100 1650 3270 2250
8270 MWs

Energy Projects – under execution / planning

Additional Generation (MWs)
# Project Name
2016 2017 2018 Beyond
CPEC Projects 1100 1650 3270 2250
8270 MWs
Neelum Jehlum 969
Chashma Nuclear (C3 & C4) 340 340
Wind (Other than CPEC) 350 500
Hydel (Tarbela IV and 2 others) 1679
Gas based projects at GENCOs 1600
LNG (3*1200) 3600
Jamshoro Coal Power Plant 660 660
K2 & K3 2200
CASA 1000 1000
Dasu 1 & 2 4280
Diamer Basha 4800
Others 15000+
Total 3390 8738 3960 30190
43278 MWs

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Pakistan’s Power Sector is ready

• For Investments in:
• Generation

• Transmission through wheeling

• Transmission Lines

• Distribution – through Privatisation

• Downstream and auxiliary services

• Equipment including Smart Meters

• Materials

Futuristic Vision
• Market-based Power Sector
• From Single Buyer to Multiple Buyer Market
• Freedom of Choice for Consumers - Multiple Distribution
Companies / Power suppliers available to Consumers
• Market players / brokers – making power transactions
between generators and distributors

• Role of Public Sector

• Policy Framing and Implementation
• Monitoring the Regulatory Framework
• Strategic Interventions such as Mega Hydels, Power Parks with
infrastructure, etc.

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Thanks

1/14/2016 Ministry of Water & Power 19

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