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Indicators
Volume: Another volume signal for swing traders: After two to three (or
less) days up, if the current day made a new recent high and appears to be
ending in a doji, star, or spinning top (short real body) on low volume, it's a
good time to take profits. Why? Anyone of those three candlesticks translates
into "indecision" on the part of market players. Remember how low volume
means "low conviction"? Indecision plus low conviction equals falling prices.
illustrates this point. The final volume signal for both swing and position
traders? When climactic volume designated by a huge volume spikes near the
end of an extended uptrend or downtrend, it often indicates the current trend
may soon slow or halt. By "huge," I mean several times the usual daily volume.
If you trip over a mega-spike like this (you'll see some in the charts that follow)
and you're holding a position, take partial or complete profits.
Oscillators
Crossovers. Buy signal (bullish) equals when the MACD-H rises above its
zero line. Sell signal (bearish) equals when the MACD-H tumbles below the
zero line.
Overbought/oversold indicators. As an overbought/oversold oscillator,
when the MACD-H rises to the top of its scale and resembles a majestic
mountain, the stock may. be overbought and ready to pullback. When the
MACD-H edges below the zero line and digs a deep scoop to the downside,
the stock is oversold. when the histogram bars shorten and edge
back up, the stock should be preparing to bounce.
Bollinger Bands: the price pattern tends to fluctuate within the upper
and lower band. Further; when the price rises (or falls) to touch the boundary of
one band, it will then reverse and fall (or rise) to the opposite band.
+ When the price moves to touch one band, it usually reverses and heads all the
way to the other band (good for projecting price targets).
+ When the bands tighten because volatility lessens, look for a sharp price
change to occur. Hey, same action as a breakout from a consolidation pattern-
right? Right!
+ When the price pokes through and moves outside the band, that implies
strength in that direction-or a trend continuation
FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS:
Fibonacci ratios are gauged at 38.2 percent, 50.0 percent, and 61.8 percent, and
are considered a leading indicator (predicting possible future price action).
Your job is to draw an uptrend (or downtrend) line, connecting a major peak
and trough. Then, activate your charting software's Fibonacci retracement
option. Start at the bottom of the trendline and drag your cursor to the top of the
trend. (Fancy charting programs will include a 23.6 percent line.) You'll see five
horizontal lines, representing 0.0 percent, then 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 100 percent
of the entire move, or trend.
Patterns
Continuation Patterns: flag lasts three days to three weeks and drifts
down against the prevailing trend. When it completes its action, the stock
resumes its previous trend.
The pennant resembles the flag, except that it moves horizontally in the shape of
a small, symmetrical triangle. It, too, lasts from a few days to just weeks.
Take special note of how the trend lines are drawn right
through the arrows. I did that on purpose. Those arrows
represent the day (on a daily chart) during which the uptrend
(downtrend) resumes.
Double Top
When completed, it looks like an "M."
Indication: bearish.
How it happens: The stock is in an uptrend. It may become overextended
at the zenith of first top (of eventual double top). The price pulls back, and
then resumes its uptrend. When it reaches the resistance established by the
first peak, buyers refuse to pay higher prices. The price starts retracing to
previous pivot low, or middle of "M."
Completion: A double top concludes when the price completes final
retracement to middle pivot low of "M." (Think: an entire "M" is formed.)
Forecast: If the price falls below consolidation support, it will sink lower.
What you do: When you're holding a long position in a stock that's
approaching the second peak in an extended uptrend, monitor (where your
stock resides) conditions for weakness. Get ready to take profits. Also, if the
stock is overextended, trading high above its 20-day MA, take profits as soon as
you recognize this. To sell short, wait until the stock drops below the support
zone formed by the pivot lows, and then enter. This will be a "dark fall day."
Double Bottom
When completed, it looks like a "W."
Indication: bullish.
How it happens: The stock is basing after experiencing a downtrend. It
possibly bounces off previous support and rallies to establish the middle peak of
"W." It pulls back to the last pivot low (which becomes first pivot of double
bottom), and then bounces off that price support. (Buyers recognize a second
chance to "bottom fish.")
Completion: A double bottom is completed when the price rises to the middle
peak of the "W."
Forecast: Price will initiate an uptrend. Typically, though, it will consolidate
for days or weeks before that rise. The longer it consolidates, the more powerful
the breakout to the upside may be.
What you do: Monitor bases for double bottoms. When you see one forming
in a target stock, get ready for buy criteria to be met so you can pounce! (This
will be a "nice spring day.")
Cup-with-Handle:
Look for: A stock movil1:g sideways in a Stage One base dips to previous
support making a scoop (cup), then gradually rises to previous resistance.
It dips again-Qushing out "weak hands," or scared sellers-then returns again to
resistance (handle). Then it moves sideways in a tight consolidation range, until
high volume and other bullish market conditions propel it into an uptrend.
Indication: bullish.
Completion: When it concludes the handle by rising to the resistance line,
it has reached completion.
What you do: Monitor stock for completion of the pattern, and then enter.25
over breakout of consolidation, on a "nice spring day."
BUY TRIGGER LIST
To review, here's your complete Buy Trigger List. You may want to
copy it onto a regular sheet of paper to keep at your elbow when you
trade.
1. Market conditions, Dow and/or Nasdaq, are positive.
2. Target stock is a leading company in a leading industry.
3. Company fundamentals meet or exceed "IBD" standards.
4. Industry/sector is in an uptrend and positive on the day of your
trade.
5. Stock has formed a base, or is in the context of an uptrend on a
daily
chart. It's ready to break out of a consolidation or pullback to
support.
6. Strong volume on the break above resistance (yesterday's high).
7. Stock is bouncing off of, or is near, the 20-, 40-, or 50-day MA, and
it
is trading over the 50-day MA.
8. RSI is below 30 and hooking to the upside, or is making an
uptrend.
(It is not overbought.)
9. The OBV is rising or is in an uptrend.
10. Target stock is trading above its opening price and moving up on
the day. Buy signal: It .25 of a point over yesterday's high