Variable de Salida: Nombre no definido

Hoja Hoja2
30
Variable de Salida: COSTO ESPER
Celda $F$43
25
Estadísticas de la Simulación
Nro. Iteraciones 100 20
Mínimo 397.6588878392
Promedio 1899.5052103477 15

Frecuencia
Máximo 3384.5547560132
Mediana 1831.5125598874 10
Varianza 306083.828757149
5
Desvío estándar 553.2484331267
Rango 2986.8958681741
0
Curtosis -0.2444225164 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 9
Coef. de asimetría 0.2471861846 7 .6 6 .3 5 .0 3 .7 .4 1 .1 9 .8 8 .4
3 9 6 9 9 9 9 9 2 9 8 8 87
Coef. de variación 29.1259234% 12 18
15 Frecuencia 21 24 27
Percentil 1% 1052.769730588
Clase
Percentil 2% 1081.4939685475
Percentil 3% 1084.3996612465
Percentil 4% 1096.5110227993
Percentil 5% 1123.8784246005
Percentil 6% 1153.5585022261
Percentil 7% 1164.3270697863 120.00%
Variable de Salida: COSTO ESPER
Percentil 8% 1173.497710688
Percentil 9% 1198.369359876 100.00%
Percentil 10% 1209.9216441658
80.00%
Percentil 11% 1216.813929648
Percentil 12% 1235.6440900081
60.00%
Probab. Acum.

Percentil 13% 1238.316110514

Percentil 14% 1255.1763951607 40.00%
Percentil 15% 1341.2441615087
Percentil 16% 1370.6960831777 20.00%
Percentil 17% 1384.3039694073
Percentil 18% 1395.4448129465 0.00%
Percentil 19% 1410.3786562797 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 9
7 .6 6 .3 5 .0 3 .7 2 .4 1 .1 9 .8 8 .4
Percentil 20% 1430.3785999126 39 69 99 1 29 1 59 1 89 2 18 2 48 27
8
Percentil 21% 1437.0324641805
Percentil 22% 1450.4256045772 Clase
Percentil 23% 1483.1701955136 % acumulado
Percentil 24% 1496.5011740421
Percentil 25% 1525.7027822489
Percentil 26% 1534.9883537058 Variable de Salida: Nombre no de
Percentil 27% 1540.786431924
Percentil 28% 1544.191534951 -38.31617499 12
$ E$ 50.76826744
7
-29.04610295 ja2 ! $ 2 35.36210459
32.632323
-28.283361 o $ E
! 0
- H ja 2 $ 3 27.98713961
O o $ E 23.5690729
ST - H 2 ! 3 4 22.28883046
21.53266421
CO /A o ja $ E $ 18.89882576
N - H 2! 41
-17.2251718 17.66653719
-16.4375213 a $
/A o j E
 Variable de Salida: Nombre no de
2
-38.31617499
E $1 50.76826744
$ 7
Percentil 29% 1547.9114544101 -29.04610295 ja2 ! $ 2 35.36210459
32.632323
-28.283361 o $ E
! 0
Percentil 30% 1563.8206806593 - H a2 $ 3 27.98713961
T O oj $E 4 23.5690729
S - H 2 ! 3 22.28883046
Percentil 31% 1570.4337112877 CO /A o ja $ E $
21.53266421
18.89882576
N - H 2! 41
-17.2251718 17.66653719
Percentil 32% 1587.3761915962 -16.4375213
/A o j E
a $
N - H 2 !$ 1 4
-15.34573657 15.91153584
Percentil 33% 1597.2159304026 -14.16671241 a $
/A o j E
-12.10769229
N - H 2 !$ 23

Clase
-11.68530205
Percentil 34% 1605.4213223864 a $
/A o j E
-10.73836086 11.20086145
N - H 2 !$ 3 3
-9.84405113
Percentil 35% 1614.4179523485 a $
/A o j E
-7.67889328 7.84159488
N - H 2 !$ 39
-7.38449357
-4.61593719 a $
Percentil 36% 1621.7782458622 /A o j ! $ E 1
-3.91567628
H 2
N-3.82557574
-
-2.45635092a $3
Percentil 37% 1646.6583614851 N
oj $E 0
/A-0.7776409
H !
-50 - ja2 $ 2
Percentil 38% 1664.0562971136 /A o
N - H 2 !$
E 0
j a 50
Percentil 39% 1671.0840083345 /A o
N -H 100
15
Percentil 40% 1688.1896430659 N
/A
Percentil 41% 1719.8363355989
Percentil 42% 1744.3018619966
Beta Regresión
Percentil 43% 1752.8699192535
Percentil 44% 1778.6019353911
Percentil 45% 1806.4379760106
Percentil 46% 1817.0465965204
Percentil 47% 1821.0699906679 Variable de Salida: Nombre no de
Percentil 48% 1826.1131741152
Percentil 49% 1830.0789176196 -0.20787219 12 0.26128461
E$
Percentil 50% 1831.5125598874 -0.1696826 a2 ! $ 3
$ 2 0.20020331
0.19716836
o j E
Percentil 51% 1835.7912634553 -0.15064384
- H a2 $ 3
!$ 8 0.16010365
O o j !$ E 4 0.13471532
0.12004931
Percentil 52% 1841.0913980634 T
S - H a2 $ 3 0.11375867
CO /A o j !$ E 7 0.10487137
0.09979358
Percentil 53% 1860.9210283422 -0.08964872
N - H 2 $1
ja E 0.08897579
-0.08492305
/A o
Percentil 54% 1882.2404241394 N - H 2 !$ $ 4 2
-0.08303458
-0.0768175 ja E
Clase

-0.06460433
/A o
Percentil 55% 1884.6914200965 N - H 2 !$ $ 2 3
-0.05919732 0.05953587
-0.05824373 ja E
/A o
N - H 2 !$ $ 3 3
-0.05607062
Percentil 56% 1889.8358703949 -0.04444651ja
/A H o ! $ E 9 0.04161993
-0.03678919
N
Percentil 57% 1929.252574902 - ja2 $ 1
-0.02287331
o !$ E 5
/A-0.022107
-1 N-0.02114971
- H ja2 $ 2
Percentil 58% 1975.1720496831 -0.8 -0.6
-0.01339106
o !$ E 0
/A-0.0047966
-0.4N - H -0.2 ja
2 $2
Percentil 59% 1978.7387645214 / Ho !$ E
A 0
N - 2 0.2 0.4
Percentil 60% 1986.8520341405 ja 0.6
/A o
N -H
Percentil 61% 2003.7385800774 N
/A
Percentil 62% 2026.8643715936
Percentil 63% 2042.6161940168 Coef. de Correlación
Percentil 64% 2067.589372758
Percentil 65% 2115.8122276211
Percentil 66% 2140.0186757189
Percentil 67% 2155.586755299
Percentil 68% 2166.7093284711 Probabilidad de Ocurrencia
Percentil 69% 2188.5998895203
Percentil 70% 2211.9551311692 Nombre no definido menor que:
Percentil 71% 2216.8564857181
Percentil 72% 2232.2549842193
Percentil 73% 2245.6719781251 Tabla de Frecuencias
Percentil 74% 2252.9194680237
Percentil 75% 2273.7403486196 Clase Frecuencia % acumulado
Percentil 76% 2295.2576860516 397.66 1 1.00%
Percentil 77% 2304.7534403871 696.35 0 1.00%
Percentil 78% 2318.3170605089 995.04 0 1.00%
Percentil 79% 2337.5617372757 1293.73 14 15.00%
Percentil 80% 2401.0214605202 1592.42 17 32.00%
Percentil 81% 2426.8900701747 1891.11 24 56.00%
Percentil 82% 2433.419385972 2189.80 13 69.00%
Percentil 83% 2468.2669887308 2488.49 14 83.00%
Percentil 84% 2501.9555027927 2787.18 11 94.00%
Percentil 85% 2512.5486078287 3085.87 5 99.00%
Percentil 86% 2534.3573040066 y mayor... 1 100.00%
Percentil 87% 2563.4516526274
Percentil 88% 2569.9308576224
Percentil 89% 2613.7569257872
Percentil 90% 2729.512556617
Percentil 91% 2765.8327876932
Percentil 92% 2776.040153419
Percentil 93% 2779.4283733333
Percentil 94% 2786.8657426625
Percentil 95% 2799.8082700675
Percentil 96% 2916.7838277719
Percentil 97% 2923.7919808091
Percentil 98% 2980.1131432956
Percentil 99% 2986.4709563748
 Datos de la simulación:

Salida: COSTO ESPERADO 1735.207823

2565.839342
2778.901229
2500.513583
1355.949105
1373.505031
2599.935304
2982.449908
3384.554756
2247.909976
1895.388208
1750.887201
2793.663214
2 1 0 9 8 7 ...
2 .4 1 .1 9 .8 8 .4 7 .1 5 .8 yor 1155.36272
9 9 8 8 8 8 a
18
Frecuencia 21 24 27 30 ym 1838.975701
2322.406675
Clase
2133.445931
1542.925926
1885.47332
2529.679095
1413.421897
alida: COSTO ESPERADO 1097.0125
1884.051684
2161.290329
1454.022114
1081.945131
2461.662265
1570.595364
1174.236485
1084.475575
1386.5158
2244.844226
2394.57364
2 1 0 9 8 7 ... 1570.073904
.4 1 .1 .8 .4 7 .1 .8 or
92 89 18
9
48
8
78 08
5 ay
2426.812743
1 2 2 2 3 ym
2178.224702
Clase 1238.346484
% acumulado 1238.112841
1434.617776
1617.251649
ida: Nombre no definido 1974.14255
2106.317156
50.76826744 2293.429635
6210459 171.17241967
32323
13961
729
3046
421
576
19
 ida: Nombre no definido
50.76826744
6210459 171.17241967
32323 1819.954942
13961
729 1659.775099
3046
421
576 1673.899521
19
1437.674343
84
1535.001874
1624.324457
1257.916148
2563.094871
1165.001806
1829.855666
50
100 2764.847874
150
200 1666.680257
1697.716391
2775.791364
Beta Regresión
1822.058807
1210.940035
1059.387012
1549.229826
lida: Nombre no definido 2509.525581
2301.046516
2 2317.16358
$1 0.26128461
$E 2 0.20020331 0.90841477
1397.40484
$3 0.19716836
$E 8 0.16010365 1217.539917
$3 0.13471532
$E 34 0.12004931
0.11375867 2916.564339
E$ 0.10487137
2$ 1 7 0.09979358
2040.743406
$ 0.08897579
5$ E 2
8 4
33
5E $ 1797.644728
$ 3
32E $ 2
73
0.05953587 2212.566658
$ 3
62
651 $3 1497.961514
$E 19
919 0.04161993
331$
$E 5
2107 1830.293414
4971
9106 $2 1609.155373
$E 0
7966
2$ E$ 2 0 1843.383403
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 2427.21973
1
1595.273052
1994.391823
Coef. de Correlación 1200.756128
397.6588878
1976.593739
2922.051564
2211.693048
1544.683716
1880.697499
e no definido menor que: 0.00 2045.804994
igual a: #VALUE! 2227.359168
1125.292421
2018.357866
 1981.825508
acumulado 2725.58641
2152.777532
1832.731706
1491.876765
2786.431862
1754.365654
1534.949872
1813.632452
1598.172871
2267.177253
2980.065454
Análisis de Sensibilidad

Variable de Entrada Beta Regresión Variable de Entrada Coef. de Correlación

N/A - Hoja2!$E$20 -0.7776409 N/A - Hoja2!$E$20 -0.0047966
N/A - Hoja2!$E$37 -2.45635092 N/A - Hoja2!$E$37 -0.01339106
N/A - Hoja2!$E$25 -3.82557574 N/A - Hoja2!$E$31 -0.02114971
N/A - Hoja2!$E$31 -3.91567628 N/A - Hoja2!$E$25 -0.022107
N/A - Hoja2!$E$22 -4.61593719 N/A - Hoja2!$E$22 -0.02287331
N/A - Hoja2!$E$21 -7.38449357 N/A - Hoja2!$E$21 -0.03678919
N/A - Hoja2!$E$39 -7.67889328 N/A - Hoja2!$E$19 0.04161993
N/A - Hoja2!$E$19 7.84159488 N/A - Hoja2!$E$39 -0.04444651
N/A - Hoja2!$E$26 -9.84405113 N/A - Hoja2!$E$29 -0.05607062
N/A - Hoja2!$E$33 -10.7383609 N/A - Hoja2!$E$33 -0.05824373
N/A - Hoja2!$E$18 11.20086145 N/A - Hoja2!$E$26 -0.05919732
N/A - Hoja2!$E$29 -11.6853021 N/A - Hoja2!$E$18 0.05953587
N/A - Hoja2!$E$23 -12.1076923 N/A - Hoja2!$E$23 -0.06460433
N/A - Hoja2!$E$35 -14.1667124 N/A - Hoja2!$E$35 -0.0768175
N/A - Hoja2!$E$42 -15.3457366 N/A - Hoja2!$E$16 -0.08303458
N/A - Hoja2!$E$14 15.91153584 N/A - Hoja2!$E$42 -0.08492305
N/A - Hoja2!$E$15 -16.4375213 N/A - Hoja2!$E$14 0.08897579
N/A - Hoja2!$E$16 -17.2251718 N/A - Hoja2!$E$15 -0.08964872
N/A - Hoja2!$E$41 17.66653719 N/A - Hoja2!$E$17 0.09979358
N/A - Hoja2!$E$17 18.89882576 N/A - Hoja2!$E$41 0.10487137
N/A - Hoja2!$E$36 21.53266421 N/A - Hoja2!$E$36 0.11375867
N/A - Hoja2!$E$34 22.28883046 N/A - Hoja2!$E$34 0.12004931
N/A - Hoja2!$E$24 23.5690729 N/A - Hoja2!$E$24 0.13471532
N/A - Hoja2!$E$38 27.98713961 N/A - Hoja2!$E$30 -0.15064384
N/A - Hoja2!$E$30 -28.283361 N/A - Hoja2!$E$38 0.16010365
N/A - Hoja2!$E$13 -29.046103 N/A - Hoja2!$E$13 -0.1696826
N/A - Hoja2!$E$32 32.632323 N/A - Hoja2!$E$27 0.19716836
N/A - Hoja2!$E$27 35.36210459 N/A - Hoja2!$E$32 0.20020331
N/A - Hoja2!$E$40 -38.316175 N/A - Hoja2!$E$40 -0.20787219
N/A - Hoja2!$E$28 50.76826744 N/A - Hoja2!$E$28 0.26128461
COSTO - Hoja2!$E$12 171.1724197 COSTO - Hoja2!$E$12 0.90841477
 Variable de Salida: RIESGO

Hoja Hoja2 Variable de Salida: RIESGO

Celda $M$43 30

Estadísticas de la Simulación 25
Nro. Iteraciones 100
20
Mínimo 67692.7862746904
Promedio 1764071.609028 15

Frecuencia
Máximo 4944788.27755504
Mediana 1555298.52371341 10
Varianza 849098161689.325
5
Desvío estándar 921465.225436818
Rango 4877095.49128035 0
Curtosis 1.2629387575 9 4 8 3 8
.7 .3 .8 .4 .9 53 08 63
Coef. de asimetría 0.9585579148 2 2 1 1 0 0. 0. 9. 9
69 5 40 11 82 53 2 4 9 5 6 5 36
Coef. de variación 52.2351372% 67 55 43 30 18 0 6 9 3 8 1 6 9
10 15 20 Frecuencia
25 29 34 39
Percentil 1% 468458.91872987
Clase
Percentil 2% 473222.33653904
Percentil 3% 506129.221003508
Percentil 4% 575969.404100871
Percentil 5% 582549.485021139
Percentil 6% 598628.372564559
Percentil 7% 612478.701499129
Variable de Salida: RIESGO
120.00%
Percentil 8% 621601.63693498
Percentil 9% 641128.874929831 100.00%
Percentil 10% 652840.008513283
Percentil 11% 697689.325771668 80.00%
Percentil 12% 764046.12267186
Probab. Acum.

60.00%
Percentil 13% 801604.573201177
Percentil 14% 854755.427531949 40.00%
Percentil 15% 863314.894357137
Percentil 16% 869665.392775839 20.00%
Percentil 17% 894109.376220791
0.00%
Percentil 18% 922676.163278798
9 4 8 3 8 3 8 3
Percentil 19% 935198.982863469 2 .7 2 .3 1 .8 1 .4 0 .9 0 .5 0 .0 9 .6
69 40 11 82 53 24 95 65 36
Percentil 20% 963914.262517669 67 55
5
04
3
53
0
01
8
50
6
99
3
48
1
96
9
1 1 2 2 2 3 3
Percentil 21% 1019354.0743828
Percentil 22% 1047304.07653495 Clase
Percentil 23% 1054058.37155158 % acumulado
Percentil 24% 1070855.55813501
Percentil 25% 1095009.51211569
Percentil 26% 1144309.77625209 Variable de Salida: RIESGO
Percentil 27% 1179767.68738878
Percentil 28% 1202560.06932193 -64533.18698346
86272.74893829
-48471.05155912 60595.43709123
-45692.53561614 49855.68467456
-45414.76541972
43749.27866212
40267.37538662
-37644.00116313 39990.26995839
31357.09354777
31017.165622
-29186.9410853 29720.63546593
 Variable de Salida: RIESGO
-64533.18698346
86272.74893829
60595.43709123
Percentil 29% 1240429.30528297 -48471.05155912
-45692.53561614 49855.68467456
-45414.76541972
Percentil 30% 1288132.34816758 43749.27866212
40267.37538662
Percentil 31% 1308949.56814352 -37644.00116313 39990.26995839
31357.09354777
Percentil 32% 1312698.60690582 -29186.9410853
31017.165622
29720.63546593
Percentil 33% 1327971.99172552 -13819.22341144 26673.97777411

Clase
13204.41895597
13002.53324237
Percentil 34% 1341091.25482649 -12921.10102308
-12419.11312837
-11799.81362035
Percentil 35% 1347715.86092766 -11100.79757172
-9411.39761813
6591.66236715
Percentil 36% 1354331.45711482 -6113.36866861
-5621.74393406
-3912.44775207
Percentil 37% 1393642.99466701 -2614.78967196
2670.84084036
-100000 -50000
Percentil 38% 1416700.75088697 0 50000 100000 150000
Percentil 39% 1418585.77457273 200000 2
Percentil 40% 1435909.7858501
Percentil 41% 1453874.60799858
Percentil 42% 1459504.4038325
Beta Regresión
Percentil 43% 1482310.8648028
Percentil 44% 1502792.11375203
Percentil 45% 1509733.09295813
Percentil 46% 1520297.10146324
Percentil 47% 1529842.83105762 Variable de Salida: RIESGO
Percentil 48% 1533130.0874635
Percentil 49% 1543586.02377437 -0.21020285 12 0.2665854
E$
Percentil 50% 1555298.52371341 -0.17000947 a2 ! $ 2
$ 7 0.20285247
0.17109228
o j E
Percentil 51% 1569085.17474719 -0.14611906
-0.14549183 - H a2 $ 3
!$ 2 0.14730546
O o j !$ E 7
Percentil 52% 1604459.84754796 T
S - H a2 $ 1
-0.12255418
0.1387011
0.13021678
CO /A o j !$ E 8 0.107701
Percentil 53% 1666635.70486879 N - H 2 $3
ja E
0.09978358
0.09838527
-0.09557353
/A o
Percentil 54% 1709035.41819015 N - H 2 !$ $ 1 5
-0.04591586 0.09506804
ja E
Clase

/A o 0.04213935
Percentil 55% 1717789.37823523 N - H 2 !$ $ 1 8
-0.04044297 0.04143489
-0.03844235 ja E
/A o
N - H 2 !$ $ 2 2
-0.03529522
Percentil 56% 1734215.45882405 -0.03398002 ja
/A H o ! $ E 9
-0.03198091
N -0.0212452
- ja2 $ 2 0.02137636
Percentil 57% 1744490.88736886 A o $E 7
/-0.0184008
-0.01132362 !
Percentil 58% 1747592.30466038 -1 - H ja2 $ 3
N-0.00968351
-0.8 -0.6 /A H o ! $ E 5 0.00926664
-0.4N - -0.2 ja
2 $2
Percentil 59% 1748565.42178953 /A H o ! $ E 0
N - 2 0.2 0.4
Percentil 60% 1779050.78694393 ja 0.6
/A o
N -H
Percentil 61% 1849071.11128965 N
/A
Percentil 62% 1895420.56735288
Percentil 63% 1918624.31725632 Coef. de Correlación
Percentil 64% 1941029.22604891
Percentil 65% 1949801.52079193
Percentil 66% 1972268.00756728
Percentil 67% 2000667.65844007
Percentil 68% 2029153.54402203 Probabilidad de Ocurrencia
Percentil 69% 2067166.36415037
Percentil 70% 2143915.99633145 RIESGO menor que:
Percentil 71% 2176338.60911625
Percentil 72% 2194679.39274239
Percentil 73% 2224155.61827589 Tabla de Frecuencias
Percentil 74% 2265335.36554823
Percentil 75% 2335919.8960078 Clase Frecuencia % acumulado
Percentil 76% 2370763.1810461 67692.79 1 1.00%
Percentil 77% 2396324.63505732 555402.34 3 4.00%
Percentil 78% 2438740.56722284 1043111.88 18 22.00%
Percentil 79% 2449794.80245634 1530821.43 25 47.00%
Percentil 80% 2493071.85966325 2018530.98 20 67.00%
Percentil 81% 2507268.19589808 2506240.53 14 81.00%
Percentil 82% 2523424.27543975 2993950.08 8 89.00%
Percentil 83% 2551390.64693263 3481659.63 7 96.00%
Percentil 84% 2627673.7511966 3969369.18 1 97.00%
Percentil 85% 2728953.20230678 4457078.73 1 98.00%
Percentil 86% 2743587.07173381 y mayor... 2 100.00%
Percentil 87% 2796194.23580369
Percentil 88% 2901458.82039999
Percentil 89% 2932464.23127835
Percentil 90% 3001402.83557314
Percentil 91% 3025801.34666109
Percentil 92% 3051844.42266209
Percentil 93% 3094029.30443879
Percentil 94% 3103003.07237217
Percentil 95% 3121951.07968099
Percentil 96% 3187524.41116009
Percentil 97% 3958337.10283534
Percentil 98% 4133352.16044481
Percentil 99% 4646198.70102028
 Datos de la simulación:

e de Salida: RIESGO 1749394.856

2780929.408
3101906.732
2898351.16
1187302.411
936910.7705
2998938.334
4944788.278
4643182.645
2439037.907
1889012.705
1708562.364
... 2244138.421
98 .5
3
.0
8
.6
3
.1
8
.7
3
or
0. 40 50 59 69 78 ay 507146.5082
2 9 16 93 70
06 93 8 6 5 ym 1419198.193
Frecuencia
2 5 2 9 34 39 44
1747989.035
Clase
2216764.719
1101371.985
1709590.743
3120179.066
898872.4798
e de Salida: RIESGO 578837.0248
1727809.932
2038160.551
1344102.067
805974.8502
2924248.331
1313202.054
473236.934
582744.8777
653934.4549
1823534.683
3155619.342
8 3 8 3 8 3 ...
.9 .5 .0 .6 .1 .7 or 1159396.027
30 24
0
95
0
65
9
36
9
07
8 ay
06 93 81 69 57 ym 2131727.689
25 29 34 39 44
1905875.501
Clase 622310.9194
% acumulado 642989.9914
1051536.925
1302986.155
de Salida: RIESGO 1942269.164
2438656.702
86272.74893829 1532791.061
60595.43709123 291366.00828169
855.68467456

49.27866212
7.37538662
0.26995839
09354777
165622
63546593
 de Salida: RIESGO
86272.74893829
60595.43709123 291366.00828169
855.68467456 1533443.035
49.27866212 1557265.799
7.37538662
0.26995839 1940331.761
09354777
165622
63546593 870854.2235
97777411
95597
1311628.783
24237
1349661.75
1075922.093
715
3048227.731
036 599642.2127
1629455.46
0 100000 150000
200000 250000
2490261.22
300000 1526518.231
1505747.495
3023583.353
Beta Regresión
1253473.465
703097.2312
472507.0615
1581386.974
e de Salida: RIESGO 2519860.614
2024914.952
2 2737508.087
$1 0.2665854
$E 7 0.20285247 0.92839014
862696.4518
$2 0.17109228
$E 2 0.14730546 772357.3351
$3
$E 17
$
0.1387011
0.13021678 3953246.061
$E 8 0.107701
$3 0.09978358
0.09838527
1747305.017
3$ E 5
586 $1 0.09506804 1553331.249
$E 18 0.04213935
297 $ 0.04143489 1963790.183
$E 2
235
522
002 $2 1447050.848
$E 29
091
0.02137636
2452 $
$E 7
4008 1460147.337
2362
8351 $3 1032296.704
$E 5 0.00926664
2$ E$ 2 0 1356958.167
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 2366684.188
1
863424.0313
2325665.132
Coef. de Correlación 927901.3621
67692.78627
1988724.961
3093436.38
1499030.719
1054811.531
1335246.737
RIESGO menor que: 0.00 1512994.036
igual a: #VALUE! 2727443.517
613444.8888
2172355.379
 2608669.986
acumulado 2539658.734
2186090.655
1415188.052
970665.1355
2383679.992
1458616.543
1417627.889
1742367.947
1208493.603
2504314.419
4122947.457
Análisis de Sensibilidad

Variable de Entrada Beta Regresión Variable de Entrada Coef. de Correlación

N/A - Hoja2!$E$20 -2614.78967 N/A - Hoja2!$E$25 0.00926664
N/A - Hoja2!$E$25 2670.84084 N/A - Hoja2!$E$20 -0.00968351
N/A - Hoja2!$E$16 -3912.44775 N/A - Hoja2!$E$16 -0.01132362
N/A - Hoja2!$E$37 -5621.74393 N/A - Hoja2!$E$37 -0.0184008
N/A - Hoja2!$E$39 -6113.36867 N/A - Hoja2!$E$39 -0.0212452
N/A - Hoja2!$E$31 6591.662367 N/A - Hoja2!$E$31 0.02137636
N/A - Hoja2!$E$26 -9411.39762 N/A - Hoja2!$E$29 -0.03198091
N/A - Hoja2!$E$29 -11100.7976 N/A - Hoja2!$E$26 -0.03398002
N/A - Hoja2!$E$21 -11799.8136 N/A - Hoja2!$E$21 -0.03529522
N/A - Hoja2!$E$33 -12419.1131 N/A - Hoja2!$E$22 -0.03844235
N/A - Hoja2!$E$22 -12921.101 N/A - Hoja2!$E$33 -0.04044297
N/A - Hoja2!$E$19 13002.53324 N/A - Hoja2!$E$19 0.04143489
N/A - Hoja2!$E$18 13204.41896 N/A - Hoja2!$E$18 0.04213935
N/A - Hoja2!$E$42 -13819.2234 N/A - Hoja2!$E$42 -0.04591586
N/A - Hoja2!$E$41 26673.97777 N/A - Hoja2!$E$41 0.09506804
N/A - Hoja2!$E$15 -29186.9411 N/A - Hoja2!$E$15 -0.09557353
N/A - Hoja2!$E$14 29720.63547 N/A - Hoja2!$E$36 0.09838527
N/A - Hoja2!$E$36 31017.16562 N/A - Hoja2!$E$14 0.09978358
N/A - Hoja2!$E$38 31357.09355 N/A - Hoja2!$E$38 0.107701
N/A - Hoja2!$E$35 -37644.0012 N/A - Hoja2!$E$35 -0.12255418
N/A - Hoja2!$E$32 39990.26996 N/A - Hoja2!$E$34 0.13021678
N/A - Hoja2!$E$34 40267.37539 N/A - Hoja2!$E$17 0.1387011
N/A - Hoja2!$E$17 43749.27866 N/A - Hoja2!$E$23 -0.14549183
N/A - Hoja2!$E$23 -45414.7654 N/A - Hoja2!$E$30 -0.14611906
N/A - Hoja2!$E$30 -45692.5356 N/A - Hoja2!$E$32 0.14730546
N/A - Hoja2!$E$13 -48471.0516 N/A - Hoja2!$E$13 -0.17000947
N/A - Hoja2!$E$24 49855.68467 N/A - Hoja2!$E$24 0.17109228
N/A - Hoja2!$E$27 60595.43709 N/A - Hoja2!$E$27 0.20285247
N/A - Hoja2!$E$40 -64533.187 N/A - Hoja2!$E$40 -0.21020285
N/A - Hoja2!$E$28 86272.74894 N/A - Hoja2!$E$28 0.2665854
COSTO - Hoja2!$E$12 291366.0083 COSTO - Hoja2!$E$12 0.92839014
 Variable de Salida: Nombre no definido

Hoja Hoja2
25
Variable de Salida: PRECIO MIN
Celda $I$43

Estadísticas de la Simulación 20
Nro. Iteraciones 100
Mínimo 2.0925093873 15
Promedio 2.2028676088

Frecuencia
Máximo 2.3230047564 10
Mediana 2.200507208
Varianza 0.0020202231 5
Desvío estándar 0.0449468922
Rango 0.2304953692
0
Curtosis 0.1107775527
09 12 14 16 18 21 23 25
Coef. de asimetría 0.2114701588 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2
Coef. de variación 2.0403810% Frecuencia
Percentil 1% 2.1162921464
Clase
Percentil 2% 2.1186159831
Percentil 3% 2.1256386396
Percentil 4% 2.1260692106
Percentil 5% 2.1324977876
Percentil 6% 2.135334579
Percentil 7% 2.1386790777 120.00%
Variable de Salida: PRECIO MIN
Percentil 8% 2.1430588995
Percentil 9% 2.1437673196 100.00%
Percentil 10% 2.1438397109
80.00%
Percentil 11% 2.1492350305
Percentil 12% 2.1525879692
60.00%
Probab. Acum.

Percentil 13% 2.1533679088

Percentil 14% 2.1547442368 40.00%
Percentil 15% 2.155030451
Percentil 16% 2.1585998082 20.00%
Percentil 17% 2.1609472912
Percentil 18% 2.1623933155 0.00%
Percentil 19% 2.1639678643 09 12 14 16 18 21 23 25
2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
Percentil 20% 2.1646863602
Percentil 21% 2.1658099742
Percentil 22% 2.1665776857 Clase
Percentil 23% 2.1713205609 % acumulado
Percentil 24% 2.1728592096
Percentil 25% 2.1730654774
Percentil 26% 2.1746340793 Variable de Salida: Nombre no de
Percentil 27% 2.1761893512
Percentil 28% 2.1780492269 19
$ E$
! 0
a2 $ 2 0
o j !$ E 2 0.0038
0.00320181
- H a2 $ 1 0.00306462
/A o j E 0.00303117
N - H 2!$ 37 0.00297751
0.00295086
a $
/A o j E 0.00292602
N - H 2 !$ 34 0.00278131
0.00265836
a $ 0.0025452
O oj E
 Variable de Salida: Nombre no de
9
$1
! $E 0
Percentil 29% 2.1814464396 a2 $ 2 0
o j !$ E 2 0.0038
0.00320181
H
- a2 $ 1
Percentil 30% 2.1830157995 /A o j E
0.00306462
0.00303117
N - H 2!$ 37 0.00297751
0.00295086
Percentil 31% 2.1833618551 /A o j E
a $ 0.00292602
N - H 2 !$ 34 0.00278131
0.00265836
Percentil 32% 2.1837291583 O o j $E
a $ 0.0025452
0.00248144
ST - H 2 ! $ 3 8 0.00246146
Percentil 33% 2.1839007199 O
C /A o j $ E 3 a 0.00235488
0.00221409

Clase
-0.0016267 N - H 2! 2 0.00200876
Percentil 34% 2.1845073302 a $ 0.00191576
/A o j E 0.00181318
N - H 2 !$ 1 5 0.00161677
Percentil 35% 2.1848839458 a $
/A o j E 0.00158985
N - H 2 !$ 3 6 0.00148696
0.00147293
a $
Percentil 36% 2.1851585074 /A o j E
N - H 2 !$ 2 8
-0.00029489
0.00144519
0.00084032
0.00071164
-0.00006451 $
Percentil 37% 2.1859897587 A o ja $ E
-0.00000278
-0.002 N/ -0.001 !
- H ja 2 $ 4
1
Percentil 38% 2.1874125311 N -
/A H o ! $ E 0 0.001
a2 0.002
Percentil 39% 2.1885503671 /A o j 0.003
N -H 0.004
Percentil 40% 2.1897351671 N
/A

Percentil 41% 2.1906960957

Percentil 42% 2.1914415038
Beta Regresión
Percentil 43% 2.1925561783
Percentil 44% 2.1933848356
Percentil 45% 2.194025676
Percentil 46% 2.1959044532
Percentil 47% 2.1978846669 Variable de Salida: Nombre no de
Percentil 48% 2.1985296175
Percentil 49% 2.1993173979 39 0.3658221
E$ 0.34416069
0.29266081
Percentil 50% 2.200507208 $
! 18 0.28116358
a2 $ 0.23023155
o j !$ E 4 0.20875413
Percentil 51% 2.2012726592 - H ja2 $ 1
0.20494344
0.19800725
/A H o ! $ E 4 0.19634586
Percentil 52% 2.2016007664 N - 2
ja E $
2 0.19567912
0.17428696
/A o 0.16873852
Percentil 53% 2.2036078992 N - H 2 !$ $ 3 8 0.16581781
0.16433259
ja
/A o $ E 0.16388702
Percentil 54% 2.2065874208 N - H 2! $21 0.16301764
0.16128427
ja E
Clase

/A o 0.13692596
Percentil 55% 2.2081370722 N - H 2 !$ $ 3 1
-0.10857201
0.133551
0.12582342
ja E
/A o
N - H 2 !$ $ 1 5 0.10853659
0.10576748
Percentil 56% 2.2107402731 /A o
ja E 0.10423086
N - H 2 !$ $ 2 7 0.09918465
0.09578329
Percentil 57% 2.2135760486 ja
/A H o ! $ E 8
0.05125469
0.04508194
-1 N-0.01969243
- ja2 $ 2
-0.00382766
Percentil 58% 2.2148051893 -0.8 -0.6 /A H o ! $ E 1
-0.00020287
-0.4 - -0.2
N
ja
2 $4
Percentil 59% 2.2155576662 /A H o ! $ E 0 0.2
N - 2 0.4
Percentil 60% 2.2158424433 ja 0.6
/A o
N -H
Percentil 61% 2.2159686105 N
/A
Percentil 62% 2.2163348533
Percentil 63% 2.2169333055 Coef. de Correlación
Percentil 64% 2.2172974734
Percentil 65% 2.2181337698
Percentil 66% 2.2194426479
Percentil 67% 2.2208451967
Percentil 68% 2.2217621031 Probabilidad de Ocurrencia
Percentil 69% 2.2222615024
Percentil 70% 2.2231272244 Nombre no definido menor que:
Percentil 71% 2.223874322
Percentil 72% 2.2264450062
Percentil 73% 2.2288609925 Tabla de Frecuencias
Percentil 74% 2.2298210014
Percentil 75% 2.2323806897 Clase Frecuencia % acumulado
Percentil 76% 2.2332604863 2.09 1 1.00%
Percentil 77% 2.2339305667 2.12 0 1.00%
Percentil 78% 2.2351793379 2.14 6 7.00%
Percentil 79% 2.2381908591 2.16 11 18.00%
Percentil 80% 2.2403647716 2.18 16 34.00%
Percentil 81% 2.2412554433 2.21 21 55.00%
Percentil 82% 2.2418452606 2.23 19 74.00%
Percentil 83% 2.2435331952 2.25 13 87.00%
Percentil 84% 2.244398024 2.28 8 95.00%
Percentil 85% 2.2458355088 2.30 2 97.00%
Percentil 86% 2.2473027008 y mayor... 3 100.00%
Percentil 87% 2.2520910813
Percentil 88% 2.2550440874
Percentil 89% 2.2567628791
Percentil 90% 2.2599581374
Percentil 91% 2.2615097368
Percentil 92% 2.2640153846
Percentil 93% 2.2649407818
Percentil 94% 2.26804694
Percentil 95% 2.2723462173
Percentil 96% 2.2823319088
Percentil 97% 2.285027744
Percentil 98% 2.3059133433
Percentil 99% 2.3220154478
 Datos de la simulación:

Salida: PRECIO MINIMO 2.305584933

2.244149598
2.217070621
2.323004756
2.225526306
2.149901347
2.233767252
2.207444292
2.261268029
2.184811179
2.183917506
2.223199568
2.259812594
18 21 23 25 28 30 ...
2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. yor 2.188032995
a
Frecuencia ym 2.25167717
2.143418907
Clase
2.220422415
2.184923128
2.264725137
2.229005948
2.164280359
Salida: PRECIO MINIMO 2.215779165
2.267805776
2.193138523
2.241197503
2.201612976
2.241502452
2.182598664
2.186400195
2.193578367
2.15495823
2.21685266
2.198497915
18 21 23 25 28 30 ... 2.166717586
2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. or
ay
ym 2.205857493
2.185290908
Clase 2.172910915
% acumulado 2.237668323
2.215937361
2.208983803
ida: Nombre no definido 2.22309622
2.245702261
2.232140768
0.00526798
0.00513464
0.00429745
0.00385469
0.00320181
0.00306462
0.00303117
0.00297751
0.00295086
0.00292602
0.00278131
0.00265836
0.0025452
ida: Nombre no definido

0.00526798
0.00513464
0.00429745
0.00385469
2.118658506
0.00320181
0.00306462
0.00303117 2.155043196
0.00297751
0.00295086 2.201589496
0.00292602
0.00278131
0.00265836
0.0025452
0.00248144
2.159277258
0.00246146
0.00235488
0.00221409 2.173116998
0.00200876
0.00191576 2.166081675
0.00181318
0.00161677
0.00158985
0.00148696 2.116532376
0.00147293
0.00144519
0084032
71164
2.215403743
2.256385948
1 2.152954327
0.002 0.003 0.004 2.322005455
0.005 0.006 2.284391955
2.200046169
2.263953667
Beta Regresión
2.216017488
2.183194572
2.153429708
2.221703571
lida: Nombre no definido 2.217700766
2.132835663
9 0.3658221 2.233100455
$3 0.34416069
$E 8 0.29266081
0.28116358 2.092509387
$1 0.23023155
$E 14 0.20875413
0.20494344 2.138918808
$ 0.19800725
$E 24 0.19634586
$
0.19567912
0.17428696 2.200968247
$E 38 0.16873852
0.16581781
$ 0.16433259 2.21297578
$E 1 0.16388702
0.16301764
$2 0.16128427
0.13692596 2.126078156
$E 31 0.133551
$ 0.12582342 2.271825172
$E 15 0.10853659
$ 0.10576748 2.218937919
0.10423086
$E 27 0.09918465
0.09578329
$
$E 28
0.05125469
0.04508194 2.176567441
9243
$
2766 2.178625477
$E 41
0287
2$ E$ 0 2.282246074
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 2.191784233
1
2.135494084
2.143843926
Coef. de Correlación 2.194391656
2.228807379
2.190304515
2.214371753
2.234477316
2.221886484
2.16478786
e no definido menor que: 0.00 2.161289346
igual a: #VALUE! 2.240156589
2.243406944
2.190968211
 2.254861106
acumulado 2.198558881
2.143801778
2.12585452
2.197193132
2.183866639
2.175167108
2.246590578
2.172695475
2.183437011
2.16263565
2.188881146
Análisis de Sensibilidad

Variable de Entrada Beta Regresión Variable de Entrada Coef. de Correlación

N/A - Hoja2!$E$41 -0.00000278 N/A - Hoja2!$E$41 -0.00020287
N/A - Hoja2!$E$16 -0.00006451 N/A - Hoja2!$E$16 -0.00382766
N/A - Hoja2!$E$40 -0.00029489 N/A - Hoja2!$E$40 -0.01969243
N/A - Hoja2!$E$28 0.00071164 N/A - Hoja2!$E$28 0.04508194
N/A - Hoja2!$E$22 0.00084032 N/A - Hoja2!$E$22 0.05125469
N/A - Hoja2!$E$27 0.00144519 N/A - Hoja2!$E$36 0.09578329
N/A - Hoja2!$E$36 0.00147293 N/A - Hoja2!$E$27 0.09918465
N/A - Hoja2!$E$25 0.00148696 N/A - Hoja2!$E$30 0.10423086
N/A - Hoja2!$E$30 0.00158985 N/A - Hoja2!$E$25 0.10576748
N/A - Hoja2!$E$15 0.00161677 N/A - Hoja2!$E$15 0.10853659
N/A - Hoja2!$E$35 -0.0016267 N/A - Hoja2!$E$35 -0.10857201
N/A - Hoja2!$E$32 0.00181318 N/A - Hoja2!$E$23 0.12582342
N/A - Hoja2!$E$23 0.00191576 N/A - Hoja2!$E$31 0.133551
N/A - Hoja2!$E$31 0.00200876 N/A - Hoja2!$E$32 0.13692596
N/A - Hoja2!$E$26 0.00221409 N/A - Hoja2!$E$17 0.16128427
N/A - Hoja2!$E$38 0.00235488 N/A - Hoja2!$E$21 0.16301764
N/A - Hoja2!$E$33 0.00246146 N/A - Hoja2!$E$26 0.16388702
N/A - Hoja2!$E$17 0.00248144 N/A - Hoja2!$E$33 0.16433259
N/A - Hoja2!$E$34 0.0025452 N/A - Hoja2!$E$38 0.16581781
N/A - Hoja2!$E$21 0.00265836 N/A - Hoja2!$E$34 0.16873852
N/A - Hoja2!$E$24 0.00278131 N/A - Hoja2!$E$29 0.17428696
N/A - Hoja2!$E$37 0.00292602 N/A - Hoja2!$E$24 0.19567912
N/A - Hoja2!$E$29 0.00295086 N/A - Hoja2!$E$37 0.19634586
N/A - Hoja2!$E$14 0.00297751 COSTO - Hoja2!$E$12 0.19800725
COSTO - Hoja2!$E$12 0.00303117 N/A - Hoja2!$E$14 0.20494344
N/A - Hoja2!$E$42 0.00306462 N/A - Hoja2!$E$42 0.20875413
N/A - Hoja2!$E$13 0.00320181 N/A - Hoja2!$E$13 0.23023155
N/A - Hoja2!$E$20 0.00385469 N/A - Hoja2!$E$18 0.28116358
N/A - Hoja2!$E$18 0.00429745 N/A - Hoja2!$E$20 0.29266081
N/A - Hoja2!$E$39 0.00513464 N/A - Hoja2!$E$19 0.34416069
N/A - Hoja2!$E$19 0.00526798 N/A - Hoja2!$E$39 0.3658221
PRBLEMA DEL PROVEEDOR DE BTU

DIAS DE CORTE PROB ACUMULADA

0 0.1 0.1
10 0.5 0.6
30 0.4 1

PARA EMPRESA DE COSTO SUPERIOR

N NA DIAS BTU CONSUMIDO[mmBTU,sCOSTO [Uss/mmBTU,s]
1 0.92 30 300 #NAME?
2 0.29 10 100 #NAME?
3 0.11 10 100 #NAME?
4 0.01 0 0 #NAME?
5 0.03 0 0 #NAME?
6 0.78 30 300 #NAME?
7 0.44 10 100 #NAME?
8 0.03 0 #NAME?
9 0.20 10 100 #NAME?
10 0.80 30 300 #NAME?
11 0.33 10 100 #NAME?
12 0.44 10 100 #NAME?
13 0.73 30 300 #NAME?
14 0.68 30 300 #NAME?
15 0.49 10 100 #NAME?
16 0.55 10 100 #NAME?
17 0.65 30 300 #NAME?
18 0.87 30 300 #NAME?
19 0.04 0 0 #NAME?
20 0.84 30 300 #NAME?
21 0.51 10 100 #NAME?
22 0.72 30 300 #NAME?
23 0.31 10 100 #NAME?
24 0.14 10 100 #NAME?
25 0.64 30 300 #NAME?
26 0.83 30 300 #NAME?
27 0.11 10 100 #NAME?
28 0.66 30 300 #NAME?
29 0.89 30 300 #NAME?
30 0.47 10 100 #NAME?
MEDIA
DESVIACION STD
n
 INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA
INFERIOR
#NAME?
 RANGO
0 0.1
0.2 0.6
0.7 1

10% 10%
COSTO TOTAL[U$s] COSTO TOTAL[U$s] COSTO [Uss/mmBTU,s] PRECIO MINIMO{U$s/mmBTU,s}
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#NAME?
30
INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA
MEDIA SUPERIOR
x #NAME?
PRECIO AÑO PERMAN {U$s} COSTO TOTAL[U$s] UTILIDAD RIESGO
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
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