ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2018 PROVED TO BE BEGINNING OF BJP’S WINNING SPREE

The recently concluded assembly elections in the state of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh,
Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana which were spread over 26 days in four phases, with about
8,829 candidates contesting for 679 assembly states proved to be beginning of BJP’s winning
spree. The Congress Party propelled in three heartland states namely, Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh because of massive agrarian distress and resulting anger of farmers.1
BJP was defeated comprehensively in Chhattisgarh, though it narrowly missed Madhya Pradesh
(MP) and Rajasthan. These results indicate two trends – firstly, these assembly elections may be
the beginning of the BJP’s winning spree and secondly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
charisma may be on the wane because BJP failed to pull off the victory in MP, Rajasthan and
2
Chhattisgarh. According to Live Hindustan compilation of constitution-wise data, the
incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party regime lost a significant number of rural constituencies in the
Hindi belt to Congress Party.3 In Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh –BJP ruled for the past 15
years but this time congress outperformed the BJP by wresting control of a chunk of rural
constituencies.

1
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/podcast-editors-pick-what-is-the-swadeshi-jagran-
manchs-interest-in-the-rbi-3293561.html
2
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/assembly-elections-2018-bjp-2019-lok-sabha-elections-narendra-modi-
1412794-2018-12-19
3
https://caravanmagazine.in/politics/assembly-elections-2018-results-congress-bjp-rural
In Madhya Pradesh, Congress won 93 rural seats as compared to its 2013 tally of 55, while the
saffron party won 87 rural seats vis-à-vis its 2013 tally of 125.

MADHYA PRADESH (RURAL)

2018 2013 SEAT CHANGE

2013-18

BJP 87 125 -38

CONGRESS 93 55 +38

SEAT CHANGE 2018 (BJP GAIN/LOSS): (-6 seats)

In Chhattisgarh, the Congress has won 62 rural seats as compared to its 2013 tally of 37 seats
whereas BJP won only 13 seats which is way less than its 2013 tally of 43 seats.

CHATTISGARH (RURAL)

2018 2013 SEAT CHANGE

2013-18

BJP 13 43 -30

CONGRESS 62 37 +25

SEAT CHANGE 2018 (BJP GAIN/LOSS): (-49 seats)

In Rajasthan, which has a tradition of switching parties every five years, the Congress won 87
rural constituencies as compared to its 2013 number of 20 seats, while the Vasundhara Raje led
BJP won 55 rural seats as compared to 134 seats in 2013. Here too, BJP’s loss was stark- as it
loses 79 rural seats whereas Congress has improved its position by gaining 67 seats.
 RAJASTHAN (RURAL)

2018 2013 SEAT CHANGE

2013-18

BJP 55 134 -79

CONGRESS 87 20 +67

SEAT CHANGE 2018 (BJP GAIN/LOSS): (-32 seats)

The results herald the return of congress party after being wiped out in 2013 in the Hindi
heartland by winning 68 seats in the 90-seat Chhattisgarh assembly. Also, congress party
finished ahead of the BJP by five seats in Madhya Pradesh with 114 seats in the 230-seat
assembly and is two seats sort of a majority in the 200-seat Rajasthan assembly.

BJP President Amit Shah took pride in stating that the party was ruling in 19 of the states and
sought to give the impression that BJP is on a winning spree since 2014. He was right up to a
large extent till 2018 November-December polls in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and
Mizoram assembly elections were held in 22 states. These elections reveal that BJP government
will have to face anti-incumbency factor be it 2019 Lok Sabha election or the assembly polls
thereafter. Moreover, Narendra Modi’s appeal has ebbed and BJP’s invincibility has taken a
beating. These may pose difficulties for the BJP to retain power in the states where the BJP is in
power.