global warming, the phenomenon of increasing average airtemperatures near the surface

of Earth over the past one to two centuries. Since the mid-20th century, climate scientists have
gathered detailed observations of various weather phenomena (such
as temperature, precipitation, and storms) and of related influences on climate (such as ocean
currents and the atmosphere’s chemical composition). These data indicate that Earth’s climate
has changed over almost every conceivable timescale since the beginning of geologic time and
that, since at least the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the influence of human activities
has been deeply woven into the very fabric of climate change.
Giving voice to a growing conviction of most of the scientific community, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the 20th century saw an increase in global
average surface temperature of approximately 0.6 °C (1.1 °F). The IPCC went on to state that
most of the warmingobserved over the second half of the 20th century could be attributed to
human activities, and it predicted that by the end of the 21st century the average surface
temperature would increase by another 1.8 to 4.0 °C (3.2 to 7.2 °F), depending on a range of
possible scenarios. Many climate scientists agree that significant economic and ecological
damage would result if global average temperatures rose by more than 2 °C [3.6 °F] in such a
short time. Such damage might include increased extinction of many plant and animal species,
shifts in patterns of agriculture, and rising sea levels. The IPCC reported that the global average
sea level rose by some 17 cm (6.7 inches) during the 20th century, that sea levels rose faster in
the second half of that century than in the first half, and that—again depending on a wide range
of scenarios—the global average sea level could rise by another 18 to 59 cm (7 to 23 inches) by
the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the IPCC reported that average snow cover in the
Northern Hemisphere declined by 4 percent, or 1.5 million square km (580,000 square miles),
between 1920 and 2005.
The scenarios referred to above depend mainly on future concentrations of certain trace gases,
calledgreenhouse gases, that have been injected into the lower atmosphere in increasing amounts
through the burning of fossil fuels for industry, transportation, and residential uses.
Modern global warming is the result of an increase in magnitude of the so-called greenhouse
effect, a warming of Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere caused by the presence of water
vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and othergreenhouse gases. Of all these gases, carbon
dioxide is the most important, both for its role in thegreenhouse effect and for its role in the
human economy. It has been estimated that, at the beginning of the industrial age in the mid-18th
century, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were roughly 280 parts per million
(ppm). By the end of the 20th century, carbon dioxide concentrations had reached 369 ppm
(possibly the highest concentrations in at least 650,000 years), and, if fossil fuels continue to be
burned at current rates, they are projected to reach 560 ppm by the mid-21st century—
essentially, a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in 300 years. It has been calculated that
an increase of this magnitude alone (that is, not accounting for possible effects of other
greenhouse gases) would be responsible for adding 2 to 5 °C (3.6 to 9 °F) to the global average
surface temperatures that existed at the beginning of the industrial age.
A vigorous debate is in progress over the extent and seriousness of rising surface temperatures,
the effects of past and future warming on human life, and the need for action to reduce future
warming and deal with its consequences. This article provides an overview of the scientific
background and public policy debate related to the subject of global warming. It considers the
causes of rising near-surface air temperatures, the influencing factors, the process of climate
research and forecasting, the possible ecological and social impacts of rising temperatures, and
the public policy developments since the mid-20th century. For a detailed description of Earth’s
climate, its processes, and the responses of living things to its changing nature, see climate. For
additional background on how Earth’s climate has changed throughout geologic
time, see climatic variation and change. For a full description of Earth’s gaseous envelope,
within which climate change and global warming occur, see atmosphere.

Climatic variation since the last glaciation

Global warming is related to the more general phenomenon of climate change, which refers to
changes in the totality of attributes that define climate. In addition to changes in air temperature,
climate change involves changes to precipitation patterns, winds, ocean currents, and other
measures of Earth’s climate. Normally, climate change can be viewed as the combination of
various natural forces occurring over diverse timescales. Since the advent of human civilization,
climate change has involved an “anthropogenic,” or exclusively human-caused, element, and this
anthropogenic element has become more important in the industrial period of the past two
centuries. The term global warming is used specifically to refer to any warming of near-surface
air during the past two centuries that can be traced to anthropogenic causes.
of glaciers and ice sheets. These variations took place on timescales of tens to hundreds of
millennia and were driven by changes in the distribution of solar radiation across Earth’s surface.
The distribution of solar radiation is known as the insolation pattern, and it is strongly affected
by the geometry of Earth’s orbit around the Sun and by the orientation, or tilt, of Earth’s axis
relative to the direct rays of the Sun.
Worldwide, the most recent glacial period, or ice age, culminated about 21,000 years ago in what
is often called the Last Glacial Maximum. During this time, continental ice sheets extended well
into the middle latitude regions of Europe and North America, reaching as far south as present-
day London andNew York City. Global annual mean temperature appears to have been about 4–
5 °C (7–9 °F) colder than in the mid-20th century. It is important to remember that these figures
are a global average. In fact, during the height of this last ice age, Earth’s climate was
characterized by greater cooling at higher latitudes (that is, toward the poles) and relatively little
cooling over large parts of the tropical oceans (near the Equator). This glacial interval terminated
abruptly about 11,700 years ago and was followed by the subsequent relatively ice-free period
known as the Holocene Epoch. The modern period of Earth’s history is conventionally defined
as residing within the Holocene. However, some scientists have argued that the Holocene Epoch
terminated in the relatively recent past and that Earth currently resides in a climatic interval that
could justly be called the Anthropocene Epoch—that is, a period during which humans have
exerted a dominant influence over climate.
Though less dramatic than the climate changes that occurred during the Pleistocene Epoch,
significant variations in global climate have nonetheless taken place over the course of the
Holocene. During the early Holocene, roughly 9,000 years ago, atmospheric
circulation and precipitation patterns appear to have been substantially different from those of
today. For example, there is evidence for relatively wet conditions in what is now
the Sahara Desert. The change from one climatic regime to another was caused by only modest
changes in the pattern of insolation within the Holocene interval as well as the interaction of
these patterns with large-scale climate phenomena such as monsoons and El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO).
During the middle Holocene, some 5,000–7,000 years ago, conditions appear to have been
relatively warm—indeed, perhaps warmer than today in some parts of the world and during
certain seasons. For this reason, this interval is sometimes referred to as the Mid-Holocene
Climatic Optimum. The relative warmth of average near-surface air temperatures at this time,
however, is somewhat unclear. Changes in the pattern of insolation favoured warmer summers at
higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, but these changes also produced cooler winters in
the Northern Hemisphere and relatively cool conditions year-round in the tropics. Any overall
hemispheric or global mean temperature changes thus reflected a balance between competing
seasonal and regional changes. In fact, recent theoretical climate model studies suggest that
global mean temperatures during the middle Holocene were probably 0.2–0.3 °C (0.4–0.5 °F)
colder than average late-20th-century conditions.
Over subsequent millennia, conditions appear to have cooled relative to middle Holocene levels.
This period has sometimes been referred to as the “Neoglacial.” In the middle latitudes this
cooling trend was associated with intermittent periods of advancing and retreating mountain
glaciers reminiscent of (though far more modest than) the more substantial advance and retreat of
the major continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene climate epoch.

Causes of global warming

The greenhouse effect
The average surface temperature of Earth is maintained by a balance of various forms
of solar and terrestrial radiation. Solar radiation is often called “shortwave” radiation because the
frequencies of the radiation are relatively high and the wavelengths relatively short—close to the
visible portion of theelectromagnetic spectrum. Terrestrial radiation, on the other hand, is often
called “longwave” radiation because the frequencies are relatively low and the wavelengths
relatively long—somewhere in theinfrared part of the spectrum. Downward-moving solar energy
is typically measured in watts per square metre. The energy of the total incoming solar
radiation at the top of Earth’s atmosphere (the so-called “solar constant”) amounts roughly to
1,366 watts per square metre annually. Adjusting for the fact that only one-half of the planet’s
surface receives solar radiation at any given time, the average surface insolation is 342 watts per
square metre annually.
The amount of solar radiation absorbed by Earth’s surface is only a small fraction of the total
solar radiation entering the atmosphere. For every 100 units of incoming solar radiation, roughly
30 units are reflected back to space by either clouds, the atmosphere, or reflective regions of
Earth’s surface. This reflective capacity is referred to as Earth’s planetary albedo, and it need not
remain fixed over time, since the spatial extent and distribution of reflective formations, such as
clouds and ice cover, can change. The 70 units of solar radiation that are not reflected may be
absorbed by the atmosphere, clouds, or the surface. In the absence of further complications, in
order to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium, Earth’s surface and atmosphere must radiate these
same 70 units back to space. Earth’s surface temperature (and that of the lower layer of the
atmosphere essentially in contact with the surface) is tied to the magnitude of this emission of
outgoing radiation according to the Stefan-Boltzmann law.
Earth’s energy budget is further complicated by the greenhouse effect. Trace gases with certain
chemical properties—the so-called greenhouse gases, mainly carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), andnitrous oxide (N2O)—absorb some of the infrared
radiation produced by Earth’s surface. Because of this absorption, some fraction of the original
70 units does not directly escape to space. Because greenhouse gases emit the same amount of
radiation they absorb and because this radiation is emitted equally in all directions (that is, as
much downward as upward), the net effect of absorption by greenhouse gases is to increase the
total amount of radiation emitted downward toward Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere. To
maintain equilibrium, Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere must emit more radiation than the
original 70 units. Consequently, the surface temperature must be higher. This process is not quite
the same as that which governs a true greenhouse, but the end effect is similar. The presence of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to a warming of the surface and lower part of the
atmosphere (and a cooling higher up in the atmosphere) relative to what would be expected in
the absence of greenhouse gases.
It is essential to distinguish the “natural,” or background, greenhouse effect from the “enhanced”
greenhouse effect associated with human activity. The natural greenhouse effect is associated
with surface warming properties of natural constituents of Earth’s atmosphere, especially water
vapour, carbon dioxide, and methane. The existence of this effect is accepted by all scientists.
Indeed, in its absence, Earth’s average temperature would be approximately 33 °C (59 °F) colder
than today, and Earth would be a frozen and likely uninhabitable planet. What has been subject
to controversy is the so-called enhanced greenhouse effect, which is associated with increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases caused by human activity. In particular, the burning of fossil
fuels raises the concentrations of the major greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and these higher
concentrations have the potential to warm the atmosphere by several degrees.