SYLLABUS:

Climate change, greenhouse effect and problems

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate is the long-term (30+ years) physical properties of the troposphere (or the time-averaged
weather) for a given area. Cannot be determined by observing the day-to-day weather over the short
term. Temperature and precipitation are the two most important climate factors.

Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts
for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer to a
change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather within the context of
longer-term average conditions.

Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes,

variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain
human activities have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate change, often referred
to as global warming.

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcing or "forcing mechanisms”. These can be
either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are natural processes within the
climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External forcing mechanisms can be
either anthropogenic - caused by humans - (e.g. increased emissions of greenhouse gases and dust)
or natural (e.g., changes in solar output, the earth's orbit, volcano eruptions).

Physical evidence to observe climate change includes a range of parameters. Global records of
surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods,
most of the evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators
that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial
geology. Other physical evidence includes arctic sea ice decline, cloud cover and precipitation,
vegetation, animals and historical and archaeological evidence.

Global climate controlled by numerous naturally occurring factors, including solar output, Earth’s
axial wobble (precession of the equinoxes; 22,000-year cycle), Earth’s axial tilt (44,000-year cycle),
shape of the Earth's orbit (eccentricity; 100,000- and 400,000-year cycles), atmospheric levels of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases (thousands-millions of years cycles), position of the continents
(millions of years cycle), rates of plate motions (same), and intensity of volcanism (same).

Greenhouse Effect

A number of gases in the earth's atmosphere trap heat. These include water vapor, CO2, ozone,
methane, N2O, and CFC. All act like the glass of a greenhouse.

Gases allow solar UV energy to strike the earth's surface and warm it. This heat then radiated back as
infrared energy, which is absorbed by greenhouse gases, warming the lower atmosphere. The higher
the concentration of greenhouse gases, the more heat that gets trapped, and the warmer the
troposphere becomes.
Our planet is as warm as it is (average temperature of 60 F rather than 0 F) because of these
greenhouse gases. Makes our ecosystems and biological diversity possible.

Human Impact

Due to human activities, atmospheric levels of many greenhouse gases have risen substantially in the
last century. Many are more efficient heat trappers than CO2, but the much larger increase in CO2
concentration makes it the gas of greatest concern.

Increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases due largely to burning of fossil fuels,
agriculture, deforestation, and use of CFCs. CO2 levels now 30+% higher than the mid-1800s
(highest CO2 levels in the last 150,000+ years). CO2 concentrations may double from pre-industrial
levels by 2050.

Based upon studies of past climates and atmospheric gases, there is a direct correlation between
global mean temperature and amount of atmospheric CO2.

Globally, the 15 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1979.

GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the
past century primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels.
Archaeological sites and some buildings have survived at least two periods of global warming and
intervening cold periods. With international scientific evidence mounting and the reliability of
future climate predictions increasing. Heritage commissioned research to gather evidence on
climate change as a possible cause of environmental instability of cultural heritage and to inform
present and future planning.

According to the report of WTO International Organization 2007 the following things are take
place in the world and affecting the natural disaster. The biggest ice cap in the arctic region, the
ward hunt ice shelf broke into Fragments as a result of global warming, reported NASA. More
average shoreline in Fiji receding by half a foot every year. Adelie penguin populations in
Antarctica reduce in size by 33%. 20- 30% of the world’s reefs wiped out.

Effects of Global Warming

Earth’s average climate will be warmer than it has been it the past 10,000 years.

Northern hemisphere (more land) will warm more than southern hemisphere (more oceans). Poles will
warm more than tropics. Arctic has already warmed by as much as 10 F (Antarctic Peninsula by 4 F).
Antarctic ice shelves are beginning to break up at an accelerated rate, arctic summer sea ice has been
reduced by 15%, and Greenland’s ice sheet is thinning.

Warmer atmosphere causes greater water evaporation causing greater average precipitation and
stronger and more numerous storms (hurricanes, thunderstorms, tornadoes). Results in more frequent
and severe floods and wind damage.

Sea level will rise due to expansion of warmer water and melting of grounded glacial ice (floating sea
ice has no impact). Sea level has risen about one foot since 1900. Estimates are between 2 and 5 feet
more by 2100. May be even greater if Antarctic ice shelves melt, but this should take hundreds of
years.
Even at the lower limit of predicted sea level rise, large areas of world's coasts will flood more
severely and frequently. Some low-lying islands will all but disappear (i.e. Maldives). Coastlines will
recede by as much as 1000 feet horizontally for every one- foot rise of sea level.

Climate belts will shift away from the equator towards the poles by about 100 miles for every 1 F rise
in global average temperature. Average shift will be about 350 miles by 2100. Deserts in the
southwest and Mexico will expand into the U.S. heartland, the world's most important food producing
region. Droughts may become more frequent and severe.

Food producing regions will migrate north into Canada and Russia where soils are much thinner and
less fertile. World agricultural production may drop by 50% or more. Climate belts also will shift to
higher altitudes (500 feet for every 1 F) again reducing the size of agricultural areas. This shift may
also lead to loss of habitats and less biodiversity (more extinctions) in mountain environments.

More irrigation will be needed to supply enough water in a warmer climate. Water supplies may not
be able to keep up with demand.

Tree ranges will shift greatly, altering the location of specific ecosystems. Many species may not be
able to adapt or migrate fast enough and become extinct. May already be seeing this in the recent
worldwide dying (bleaching) of coral.

Tropical diseases, such as malaria and yellow fever will spread to new areas. The range of tropical
pests (killer bees) will expand.

Somewhat paradoxically, certain regions of the globe will cool, largely due to changes in ocean
currents. The issue of greatest concern is the slowing, if not cessation, of the Gulf Stream due to an
influx of low density, fresh melt water from the arctic and Greenland. This may cause the warm, high
salinity Gulf Stream waters from sinking to the bottom of the Atlantic near Iceland, bringing the
current to a stop. Less heat will be transferred to northern Europe and eastern North America, causing
the climate to cool dramatically in those regions.

Effects of Global Warming in India

Elevated carbon dioxide emissions from industries, factories, vehicles etc. have contributed to the
greenhouse effect, causing warmer weather that lasted long after the atmospheric shroud of dust
and aerosols had cleared. Further climatic changes 20 million years ago, long after India had
crashed into the Laurasian landmass, were severe enough to cause the extinction of many endemic
Indian forms. The formation of the Himalayas resulted in blockage of frigid Central Asian air,
preventing it from reaching India; this made its climate significantly warmer and more tropical in
character than it would otherwise have been. Several effects of global warming, including steady
sea level rise, increased cyclonic activity, and changes in ambient temperature and precipitation
patterns, have affected or are projected to affect India. Ongoing sea level rises have submerged
several low-lying islands in the Sundarbans, displacing thousands of people. Temperature rises on
the Tibetan Plateau, which are causing Himalayan glaciers to retreat. The present rate of global
warming could mean that many plants and animals currently living at lower elevations or at lower
latitudes will progressively migrate to higher elevations and latitudes. Hence, in the long term, it
may be expected that some of our currently important agricultural species will no longer be able
to grow at their present lower latitudinal and lower elevation limits if the global temperate warms

Solving the Problem of Global Warming

There also is the issue of a time delay between acting to lower CO2 emissions and the impact that
reduction will have on a warming climate.

Reducing global warming by increasing worldwide energy efficiency also has other benefits,
including less air pollution, less loss of biodiversity, fewer imports of foreign fuels, and better health.

A. Ways to Reduce Global Warming

Would need to lower present CO2 emissions in order to stabilize atmospheric levels at present values.
Can do this by increasing energy efficiency, use less coal and more natural gas, switch to renewable
forms of energy, reduce deforestation, slow population growth, and remove CO2 from present
emissions more efficiently.

It is predicted that CO2 emissions will increase by 50% in the next 20 years. Even a 50% reduction
will leave atmospheric levels at around 450 ppm (up 50% from pre-industrial levels).

B. International Agreements

The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro only committed countries to reducing emissions back to
1990 levels. Most of these were developed countries and only half of them will actually meet their
goal.

Developing countries increasing their emissions by 5% per year (14 year doubling time). By around
2025 China will emit more CO2 than any other country, although the U.S will still have the highest
per capita emissions.

1997 Kyoto Treaty requires developed countries to reduce CO2 by an average of 5.2% (U.S. 7%)
below 1990 levels by 2012. U.S. emissions predicted to be 30% higher by then! Developing countries
(even China and India) do not have to reduce emissions, although emission credits could be traded.

Although the Kyoto Treaty was a start, it still fell well short of the 60% reduction below 1990 levels
needed to stabilize atmospheric levels of CO2. U.S. and a few other industrialized nations have pulled
out of the treaty, largely due to economic reasons and the claim that the treaty is unfair. Given this, we
need to prepare for a warmer world now.