●● Jakub Wódka

Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

A n undoubtedly interesting phenomenon of the international

order in the third millennium is the growing importance of
‘new’ powers. The previous division, where one side grouped
the states of the wealthy, developed West which dominated the
international system, and the other comprised countries of the
poor, backward countries of the East and South, is crumbling.
This dichotomy has been the paradigm of the international sys-
tem and order for many years. Poland and Turkey fit well into
this process of re-evaluation of the international political and
economic relations.
George Friedman – one of the best known ‘prophets’ of inter-
national politics and CEO of the prestigious private intelligence
and analytics center STRATFOR, in his book published in 2009,
The Next 100 Years. A Forecast for the 21st Century (Friedman
2009), indicates that the importance of these two countries – Po-
land and Turkey (alongside Japan and Mexico) shall be rising
gradually during the coming decade. The author further states
that both countries would outperform France and Germany,
which currently dominate European politics. Friedman is not the
only analyst who paints a brilliant economic future for Poland
and Turkey. Ruchir Sharma, economist at Morgan Stanley, au-
thor of the book Breakout nations: In pursuit of the next eco-
nomic miracles (Sharma 2012), has a similar view of the devel-
opment of the new world order, in which an increasingly impor-
tant role shall be played by the previously overlooked ‘aspiring’
powers (next to Turkey and Poland, also Indonesia and Korea).
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Some analysts, including Myra Saefong (Saefong 2012), speak

of Turkey and Poland as the ‘new tigers’, which in years to come
shall significantly strengthen their economic potential.
Despite the fact that these two countries were on opposing
sides of the Cold War trenches, their economic policy contained
many analogies. Both countries had centrally controlled econo-
mies, with subsidized (in varying degrees) home production (im-
port substitution strategy). The doctrine of statism (in the case of
Turkey, one of the six pillars of the Kemalist ideology) stressed
the role of the state in the economy, and economic policy in both
countries was designed under multiple-year plans. Referring to
the 1970s, professor Leszek Balcerowicz wrote in one of his col-
umns that, “the 1970s in Turkey were similar to the boom of the
Gierek period in Poland” (Balcerowicz 2001). Poland and Tur-
key went through a similar path of economic reforms, although
separated by a decade. Turkey, under the so-called decision
of 24th January 1980 (24 Ocak kararları), initiated neoliberal,
structural free market reforms which can be referred to as the
turning point of the Turkish economic policy (Narin 2008: 708).
The economic reforms were continued after the military coup
of September 1980, and the person responsible for them was
the future prime minister and president, the technocrat Turgut
Özal. The reforms involved, among others, the discontinuation
of import substitution, and an opening and liberalization of the
Turkish economy. In this vein, the Turkish lira was devalued,
interest rates were raised, state subsidies reduced, incentives to
set up private companies were proposed while state enterprises
were privatized, state monopoly of the production, sale and im-
port of tobacco goods was abolished, incentives for exporters
were introduced, the prices of products manufactured by state
enterprises were no longer set on a central level but defined by
market criteria, and public spending – with the exception of in-
frastructure investment – was reduced. By implementing a pro-
gram of liberalization and opening up the economy, which was
modeled after Reaganomics and Thatcherism, Özal managed to
216 Turkish-Polish Relations: Past, Present and Future
 Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

put Turkey on the fast track. The policy of ‘expensive mon-

ey’ and the freezing of salaries allowed inflation to be reduced.
From 1979 to 1989, the export share in GDP rose from 2.8 to
10 percent (Oran 2001: 17). In the 1980s, state influence on the
economy started to wane. In the increasingly pluralistic and free
market environment the state changed its role – from the initi-
ator of economic activity into an entity responsible for creating
an environment conducive to the development of private entre-
preneurship (Başkan 2010).
In Poland reforms commenced even before the fall of com-
munism in 1989, but the real ‘shock therapy’ was initiated in 1990,
designed by Leszek Balcerowicz, professor of economics (sup-
ported by foreign advisors, Jeffrey Sachs and David Lipton). The
purpose of this reform was to abolish the central planning system
and to make the Polish economy similar to modern-day market
economies. Under the Balcerowicz Plan, the central setting of pric-
es and subsidies for production of various goods were abolished,
interest rates on bank loans went up, an anti-monopoly policy was
put in place, and foreign trade was made easier. Those reforms were
meant to stop soaring inflation. At the same time, privatization of
state-owned enterprises was another important goal.
The 1990s in Turkey saw a few crises (Fadi Hakura, analyst
of Chatham House, states that during those years the Turkish
economy was the embodiment of hyperinflation and “budgetary
imprudence” [Hakura 2013: 2]), while Poland has continuously
achieved economic growth since 1992. In the new millennium
both countries are cited as examples of a stable economy with
significant perspectives. The achievements of Poland and Tur-
key in terms of economic policy have been appreciated by in-
ternational analysts and experts. In the decade 2002-2012, both
Poland and Turkey achieved economic growth well above the
European and global average. Joshua Keating writing in Foreign
Policy named Turkey and Poland among the seven countries
which “won the recession” (Keating 2012). Both Poland and

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Turkey were included in the rapid growth markets in the reports

published by Ernst&Young – the most recent one was released in
June 2013 (EY 2013). According to research, Poland and Turkey
(next to China) are among the most entrepreneurial states in the
world. As stated in 2012 by Barbara Kollmeyer of MarketWatch
(a Web-based business service affiliated with Wall Street Jour-
nal), in both countries the growing middle class contributes to
the rising consumption and economic growth (Kollmeyer 2012).
Both offer attractive markets for investors.
Turkey is included in the groups of rapidly developing coun-
tries – MIST, CIVETS, TIMBI, NEXT-11, EAGLEs (Emerging
and Growth-Leading Economies). These acronyms are less pop-
ular than the well-known BRICS (NB. President Gül mentioned
that Turkey aspires to join the BRICS [Today’s Zaman 2010]),
but at the same time they present a changing image of the global
economy, in which no longer China or India are the ones singled
out to play the lead - there are other countries, previously over-
looked by the analysts. The GDP of Turkey amounts currently
to 56 percent of EU average, while only a decade ago it reached
38 percent. Turkey is an active member of G20, and in 2015 it
will lead the group. Ten years ago the Guinness book of records
named the Turkish lira the least valuable currency (PWC 2012).
Today, as Prime Minister Erdoğan frequently points out, it is
often perceived by investors as a safe haven.
According to the country’s leaders, for the 100th anniversa-
ry of the creation of the Turkish Republic, Turkey wants to be-
come one of the world’s ten largest economies – its GDP is set to
amount to US$2 tr and the per capita income to US$25,000. The
forecasts of international financial institutions are more cautious
as regards Turkey’s development potential, but the assertive
declarations of Turkish leaders show the scale of the country’s
ambitions, both in economic and political terms.
In foreign trade, the main foreign partners are still countries
of the European Union, but in recent years Turkey has seen a

218 Turkish-Polish Relations: Past, Present and Future

 Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

visible increase in trade with its neighbours. In 1999 trade with

the EU accounted for 56 percent of overall exchange, it dropped
to 42 percent 10 years later (Kirişçi and Kaptanoğlu 2011). Sim-
ilarly as in its political relations, Turkey is attempting to diver-
sify its trade and economic policy. In 2008 Russia became the
largest trade partner (the value of exchange reached the level of
US$38 m passing the previous leader, Germany. Turkey’s loca-
tion at the crossroads of main trade routes makes it an economic
hub – also in the area of energy.
Poland, despite the fact that it does not have so precisely de-
fined ambitions with set ‘deadlines’, also strives to attain the
status of an even more influential member state of the European
Union. Since 1989 Poland has been the fastest-developing Eu-
ropean economy, thanks to which the per capita GDP is twice as
high as at the start of transformations. To illustrate the quantum
leap made by Poland over the recent years, it is worth citing
numbers: in 1990, during the early stages of system transforma-
tion, the per capita GDP amounted to only 8 percent of the level
in Germany (measured in market prices), while nowadays it is at
the level of 30 percent (PWC 2013). Poland was the only mem-
ber state of the EU which during the financial crisis, created by
the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, managed to avoid recession
– in 2012, Poland’s GDP was 20 percent higher than in 2007 – in
the year before the global crisis (Piątkowski 2013). Due to the
dynamic economic growth, in 2011 the OECD and the World
Bank changed Poland’s classification from an ‘average income’
state to one with ‘high income’.
The long-term government development strategy, Poland
2030. The Third Wave of Modernity (Ministerstwo Administrac-
ji i Cyfryzacji 2012) defines the primary goal as development
measured by the improved quality of life (growth of GDP per
capita in relation to the EU, and reduction of inequalities) of
the Poles, through stable, high economic growth, which is ex-
pected to enable further modernization of the country. Analysts

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estimate that the nominal GDP of Poland would increase, by the

year 2030, by more than 70 percent (HSBC 2013). As suggested
by forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, over the com-
ing two decades Polish GDP per capita would reach Western
European levels. This ‘catching up’ with Western Europe can
be significantly supported by EU funds, totaling €106 bn for
the years 2014-2020. Poland is also improving its position in
the rankings of national brand. Despite not being a member of
the G20, Poland ranked 20th in the list developed by the Lon-
don-based Brand Finance consulting company, while Turkey
came in at 19th.
Poland is aiming at diversifying its foreign trade similar to
Turkey. This new strategy is reflected in growing Polish ex-
ports to countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. In 2012 the
cumulative growth of Polish exports amounted to 4.9 percent,
while exports to Africa grew by 16 percent, to Australia by 27
percent, to Asia by 12 percent and to Latin America by 18 per-
cent. Nevertheless, still three-quarters of Polish exports goes to
EU markets (this can be illustrated by saying that 80 percent of
Polish exports are sent to the region which produces 20 percent
of global GDP), but this volume is shrinking in favour of other
markets. Forecasts state that by the year 2030, Poland’s exports
would grow by 7 percent on an annual basis. The Ministry of
Economy, in an attempt to diversify foreign trade, has indicated
five strategic target markets for Polish goods: Algeria, Brazil,
Canada, Kazakhstan, and Turkey. The total share of Polish ex-
ports in these markets amounts to slightly more than 2 percent,
but those countries – including Turkey – have huge economic
potential, are stable in macroeconomic terms and their markets
have significant absorptive power. Over €400,000 were allocat-
ed for promotional activities in the Turkish market. It is worth
noting that in 2012 exports from Poland amounted to €142 bn
while Turkey exported goods of €118 bn. Imports into Poland
amounted to €152 bn while into Turkey €183 bn.

220 Turkish-Polish Relations: Past, Present and Future

 Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

It is also worth noting the place achieved by these two coun-

tries in the most important economic rankings. In the economic
freedom ranking published by the Heritage Foundation Poland
takes 57th place, while Turkey 69th. In the competition ranking
developed by the World Economic Forum, Poland exceeds Tur-
key by only two places – it ranks 42nd, while Turkey 44th. Poland
comes ahead of Turkey also in the Human Capital Index – Tur-
key ranks 60th while Poland 49th. All these indices suggest that
both countries should implement similar pro-business reforms,
but also that they face similar development challenges. To main-
tain their growth rate, both need to invest more into the develop-
ment of human capital, in innovation (both countries still have
low research & development outlays), and should also diversify
their energy sources. Other important issues are the differences
in levels of economic growth between various regions. One of
the main factors differentiating Poland from Turkey are the very
disturbing demographic tendencies, which clearly influence the
national economy and its development potential.
The reason for consideration of the co-operation potential
of these two countries is based not only on the anniversary of
Turkish-Polish relations, but also on the analogies in the threats
and opportunities faced by Poland and Turkey in their economic
policy, as well as the opinions and forecasts quoted above.

Polish-Turkish Economic Co-operation

Turkish-Polish trade relations date as far back as 1439, the
year when these countries signed their first commercial agree-
ment. After World War 2, already during the peace talks in Lau-
sanne, Poland and Turkey signed an agreement on commercial
co-operation – whose symbolic meaning lies in the fact that it
was the first commercial agreement signed by the ‘new’ Turkish
Republic (DEIK 2009). Before 1989, economic and investment
co-operation between Turkey and Poland was rather limited.
Polish enterprises (primarily CEKOP – Central Enterprise for

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the exports of Complete Industrial Installations) had their share

in the development of heavy industry in Turkey, including the
erection of four combined heat and power plants.
During the post-war period both countries signed a number
of memoranda and agreements on economic co-operation. These
include the trade agreement of 1974, the agreement on enhanc-
ing economic and technical co-operation in 1980 and the agree-
ment on legal assistance on civil and commercial issues in 1988.
After 1989, the countries entered into the bilateral invest-
ment promotion and protection agreement of 1991 and the dou-
ble taxation prevention treatment of 1993. In 1994 the protocol
on the establishment of the Permanent High-Level Consultation
Committee was established, a memorandum on co-operation in
the area of technology and defense industry (which came into
force in 2000); and in 1997 an agreement on co-operation in the
field of tourism was signed. The free trade agreement of October
1999 was of course very important. Since 1st May 2004 – the be-
ginning of Poland’s membership of the EU – the Polish-Turkish
commercial has taken place under the EC-Turkey Customs Un-
ion of 1996. The numerous agreements, referred to above, prove
a wide scope of regulation of the trade relations. It is also worth
pointing out that many of them were entered into soon after the
political system change in Poland.
The declaration on economic co-operation, signed in May
2009, is important from the standpoint of mutual relations. As
stated in the press release of the Ministry of Economy, “the main
goal of the declaration is to develop direct relations among the
administration, entrepreneurs and business self-government or-
ganizations of both countries” (Ministerstwo Gospodarki 2009).
In the document, both parties declared their will to hold regular
consultations, to be attended also by Polish and Turkish entre-
preneurs. The declaration was particularly important, but since
1993 no meetings of the Polish-Turkish Mixed Committee on
Economic Co-operation have been held. According to provi-

222 Turkish-Polish Relations: Past, Present and Future

 Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

sions of the declarations, for the last three years, ministers of

economy of Turkey and Poland and business people from both
countries meet at annual forums (Cumhuriyet 2008).
The institutionalization of co-operation among entrepreneurs
is of equal importance. In 2007 the Polish-Turkish Economic
Chamber was created, founded by 30 enterprises. The goal of
its operations is to support member businesses, as well as other
companies, in the commencement of co-operation with Polish
or Turkish partners – as a result, to support the development
of trade and commercial relations between these two countries,
as well as among their individual regions. An e-platform for
business was also established - www.polandturkey.com, which
is meant to support entrepreneurs who seek business partners
in Poland and Turkey. The Polish-Turkish Business Council is
also in operation. Its purpose is to support the co-operation of
large Polish enterprises with Turkish ones, and the partner on
the Turkish side is the DEIK – the Foreign Economic Relations
Board (Polsko-Turecka Izba Gospodarcza 2013). There is also
the Association of Entrepreneurs POTIAD (Polonya-Türkiye
İşadamları Derneği), which groups Turkish entrepreneurs con-
ducting their business in Poland.
At the end of 2012, the value of economic exchange between
Poland and Turkey amounted to almost US$5.3 bn. This repre-
sents a 7 percent decrease in comparison to the previous year.
Polish exports to Turkey amounted to US$3.1 bn while imports
from Turkey amount to US$2.1 bn. Data for the first months of
2013 indicate growth in turnover in comparison to 2012, with
imports from Turkey rising faster. The structure of Polish ex-
ports to Turkey in 2012 was similar to earlier years: it was domi-
nated by machinery and electrical appliances, vehicles, products
of the chemical industry and ready foodstuffs. Imports from Tur-
key consist mainly of products of the electromechanical indus-
try, textiles and textile goods, vehicles and metallurgy products.

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In the period 2000-2010, Polish imports from Turkey in-

creased nine-fold, while exports to Turkey rose sixteen-fold.
The breakthrough in mutual trade relations appears to be the
year 2004, the year of Poland’s accession to the European Un-
ion. From that moment onwards, the balance of mutual trade
exchange has been positive for Poland. Since 2004 international
corporations operating from the territory of Poland were able to
exports products to Turkey without customs duties. In 2009, due
to the crisis, mutual trade exchange decreased by 12 percent.
However, what is very important for Polish entrepreneurs, from
the outbreak of the crisis until 2012 the value of Polish exports
to Turkey rose by 86 percent (which is almost nine times faster
than the average for all Polish exports), while imports from Tur-
key still remains lower than during the pre-crisis times (which is
also tied to the stronger Turkish lira [ThinkTank Dossier 2012]).
As indicated earlier, Turkey is among the five countries singled
out by the Ministry of Economy as offering the best opportuni-
ties, where Poland engages in intense promotional activities in-
cluding participation in fairs, expositions or business missions.
These actions could lead to a deepening of trade imbalance, to
the disadvantage of Turkey.
As regards investment co-operation – Turkish investments
barely account for 0.1 percent of total foreign investment in Po-
land, with Turkey ranking 33rd among the investors. The obli-
gations of Poland tied to Turkish direct investment amounted
to €62.9 m at the end of 2011. There are around 200 Turkish
entrepreneurs operating in Poland, but only nine of them have
made investments in excess of US$1 m (Anadolu Agency 2013).
According to data provided by the Turkish Department of Treas-
ury, in 2011 the number of Polish investors in Turkey reached
78. The estimated value of Polish capital invested in Turkey
amounts to circa US$184.3 m (Ministerstwo Gospodarki 2013).
The best-known Turkish enterprise operating in Poland is the
Gülermak, which, under the Polish-Turkish-Italian consortium, is

224 Turkish-Polish Relations: Past, Present and Future

 Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

building the second line of the underground, a project worth over

US$1.5 bn. So far Turkish construction companies have carried
out 29 projects in Poland, worth a total of US$1.2 bn (in the years
2011-2013, Turkish entrepreneurs were carrying out three pro-
jects worth almost US$14 m (Ministry of Economy 2013).

Outlook for Polish-Turkish Economic Co-operation

It seems that the present scope of trade exchange and of mutu-
al investments do not match the growing potential of both coun-
tries. As declared by both politicians and the representatives of
the Polish-Turkish Economic Chamber, the goal is to attain the
level of US$10 bn over 5 years. Among the barriers named by
the entrepreneurs themselves are difficulties with airline con-
nections – there is only one flight per day between Poland and
Turkey, and ticket prices are rather high. Positive solutions that
could facilitate trade include the offer of one of the Polish banks,
which settles transactions in Polish zloty and Turkish lira, with-
out the need for their prior conversion to the euro or US dollars.
It is expected that in the near future Polish investors from
such sectors as mining, food production or medical tourism will
be increasingly active on the Turkish market. The Polish Minis-
try of Economy has launched two sector-specific promotion pro-
grams in Turkey: for clothing and leather goods and for cosmet-
ics. Polish enterprises are also interested in the Turkish vehicle,
food processing and tourism sectors. Companies from Poland
can make an attractive partner with the Turkish energy sector,
proposing innovative renewable energy technologies under the
Green Technology Accelerator – GreenEvo. This project was in-
itiated by the Ministry of the Environment, and its purpose is
the transfer of technologies supporting protection of natural en-
vironment. The project identified the most innovative solutions
in such areas as technologies for the treatment of sewage, recy-
cling of hazardous waste and solutions that support the use of re-
newable energy sources. Foreign companies – for instance from

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Czech - are already investing in renewable energy sources in

Turkey. The sectors referred to above – the food industry, tour-
ism, green energy, production of vehicles, as well as research
and development in agriculture and agricultural services were
indicated in the report published by PricewaterhouseCoopers
(PwC 2012) as high-prospects sectors, whose growth will fuel
the economic development of Turkey. Polish consulting compa-
nies could participate more extensively in tenders for technical
assistance projects for the Turkish administration, which are fi-
nanced under the pre-accession IPA fund, of which Turkey is a
significant beneficiary (ThinkTank Dossier 2012: 10).
From the perspective of Turkish investors, the best growth
opportunities in Poland are offered by the construction sector.
In 2013, the value of that market should reach US$38 bn. In the
next few years Poland, also under structural funds, will make
significant investments into the development of its road and
railroad infrastructure, and Turkish companies could profit from
that opportunity. Turkish entrepreneurs could also be interested
in investing in the Polish energy sector (based on their present
experience in the construction of nuclear power plants) and in
the motor vehicle industry. They could be encouraged by incen-
tives offered to investors in 14 special economic zones located
in various regions of Poland – the investors can conduct busi-
ness under preferential terms, profiting from public assistance.
In line with the Polish government’s decision, the functioning
of these zones was prolonged until 2026 (the original term was
shorter by 6 years). Moreover, Turkish investors have experi-
ence in projects carried out under public-private partnership – a
system which is to be developed in Poland under the new EU
financial perspective. Thus, Poland could profit from the wealth
of experience of the Turkish companies in that area.
At the same time, it is necessary to indicate areas where Po-
land and Turkey could compete for foreign investors – certainly,
the motor vehicle industry is one of them (Batur 2013).

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 Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

A potential area for Polish-Turkish relations at the intersec-

tion of economy and politics is the co-operation of the defense
industries of these countries. Both Turkey and Poland are at-
tempting to diversify their policy in that field, strengthening
their own capabilities in the defense industry and intensifying
relations with non-Western partners. Building its autonomy in
the international arena, Turkey is developing its arms industry
and military potential (the Turkish weapons market is estimated
at US$14 bn [UPI 2013]). In 2011, for the first time in histo-
ry, 50% of the weapons used by the Turkish army came from
domestic production (Wódka 2013). As part of the defense in-
dustry strategy for the period 2012-2016, Turkey is developing
‘from scratch’, programs for the construction of its own sub-
marines, armored vehicles (including the Altay tank), infantry
rifles, reconnaissance satellites, reconnaissance and assault
helicopters, battleships, unmanned aircraft and anti-missile sys-
tems. The value of domestic arms projects carried out by Turkey
amounts to almost US$28 bn. By the year 2023 Turkey plans
to become fully self-sufficient in terms of armaments, very ef-
fectively utilizing the offset contracts which it concluded over
the years with such enterprises as Lockheed Martin. The Polish
Ministry of Defense also published, at the end of 2012, a plan for
modernization of the Polish armed forces, to be carried out over
the period 2013-2022. Its total value is estimated at circa €35 bn.
Most importantly, the majority of the projects are to utilize the
potential of the Polish armament industry.
The potential for co-operation in that field can be proven by
the fact that Turkey was invited as a special guest to the Interna-
tional Defense Industry Exhibition in Kielce. The 21st Exhibition
was attended by the largest Turkish armament enterprises, which
seek in Poland, not only the market to sell their products, but
primarily business partners. As stressed by the representative of
the Turkish Ministry of Defense, Turkey, like Poland, is invest-
ing heavily in its land forces. “We are working on a new tank
and developing new armored vehicles. You have the anti-missile
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shield, we are also working on anti-aircraft and anti-missile de-

fense systems. As your country, Turkey is also enlarging its navy
and air force” (Wilewski 2013).
The second strategic co-operation area could be the shale gas
sector. As rightly noticed by an analyst of the Polish Institute of
International Affairs, Pinar Elman (Elman 2013), both countries
have shared interests in terms of developing the potential associ-
ated with shale gas and LNG. Success in shale gas mining could
become a ‘game changer’ for the whole economy, causing a re-
duction of energy costs and boosting the interest of foreign in-
vestors in operations on the Polish and Turkish markets (Saefong
2013) . Equally important is the fact that shale gas would enable
both countries to become independent – at least partially – from
gas supplies from Russia. This would have a very important
geo-political and economic dimension. On the operational and
technical level, Warsaw and Ankara should consider the oppor-
tunity for an exchange of experiences in the field of technology
or legislation, by engaging in joint pilot undertakings (Hürriyet
Daily News 2012). Interestingly enough, as reported by Reuters,
some companies drilling for shale gas, such as San Leon, are
able to continue their exploration work in Poland thanks to the
more lucrative and profitable interests in Turkey (Young 2013).
In order to strengthen economic relations, especially in stra-
tegic areas, political support is required – in particular for such
key areas as the energy sector or the weapons industry. More in-
tense economic relations should be supported by good political
relations, both at the top level – between presidents and prime
ministers, and between ministers of economy. The number of
official mutual visits by heads of the ministries in charge of eco-
nomic affairs, who were accompanied by numerous entrepre-
neurs, suggests that the decision makers in both countries have
realized the potential associated with economic co-operation.
Authorities of both states should also support attempts of entre-
preneurs who seek partners with whom they could invest in in-

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 Rising Economic Powers – Poland and Turkey

frastructure projects in third countries, such as Iraq (ThinkTank

Dossier 2012: 10).

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