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GBP / USD 2 Date: Tuesday, October 07, 2008 7:15 AM CDT (-5 GMT)
EURO / USD 3
USD / JPY 4
Overnight Asia/Europe
USD / CHF 5 • USD two-way in technical trade
USD / CAD 6 • Russians selling EURO
• RBA cuts rates
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The USD is mixed this focus continues to be on highs. Some analysts are
morning as the continuing what will happen to the suggesting the USD is
risk aversion from the banking sector near-term; overbought near-term but
financial crisis pervades traders note close in stops sentiment continues to be
trading. Overnight a in most pairs as well as bullish as the financial
surprise move by the semi-official names buying crisis continues. Finance
RBA, cutting interest rates USD. Russian offers for ministers are meeting in
1.0%. Traders were EURO were seen Luxemburg today to
Jason’s Latest Book expecting a rate cut but overnight Europe to discuss the potential for a
“Trading Rules that Work” not one that large; the support the Ruble and coordinated change in
an Amazon Top 100 USD rallied against the traders note that size was regulation, interest rates,
under futures
Aussie but has fallen back seen in EURO as well. and banking liquidity
Get Your Copy to open New York. Large Across the board the USD although the central banks
ranges and technical trade is holding current gains make the final call on
dominated overnight as although off the recent rates; many traders are
1. www.ForexBrotherhood.com
GBP / USD
© 2008 Genesis Financial Technologies, all rights reserved, used with permission.
Comments
Rate is two-way on the way down to trade under support around the 1.7300 area; volumes
better and traders note large names on the bid possibly covering shorts. Rate is likely
heavily over-sold. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness.
Follow-on selling likely from technical’s and spillover from EURO. Aggressive traders can
buy this dip around the 1.7380 area; look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term.
Two-way action likely near-term; heavy focus on bailout plan. Possible sovereign interest on
the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered
along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Major support has held for two
weeks now, any weakness likely to be bought hard. OK to buy any time in my view.
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EURO / USD
© 2008 Genesis Financial Technologies, all rights reserved, used with permission.
Rate has inside range day; OK to look at the buy side on weakness to the bottom of the
range. Pullback to the 1.3400 handle on lighter volume. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in
my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders
note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil weaker helps pressure
also. Traders note stops building above the market but those likely remain out of range
today. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-
taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the
rate is continuing to trade technically. A bottom is due soon but the question is where.
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USD / JPY
© 2008 Genesis Financial Technologies, all rights reserved, used with permission.
Resistance 3: 106.00/20
Resistance 2: 105.50 10-01-08 SELL USD/JPY 106.20 OB Stops @ 107.20
Resistance 1: 105.00/10 10-07-08 LIQUIDATE UNDER 102.20
Latest New York: 102.17 BOJ holds rates steady as expected.
Support 1: 100.20/30
Support 2: .9960
Support 3: .9900
Comments
Rate remains under pressure; stops building under the 104.40 area cleared overnight. OK to
sell more on a bounce to that area but I want to take gains first. Upside resistance is huge at
this level; rate remains two-way with upside capped and support at 103.50 likely to be
resistance now on a rally. Resistance is huge above the 106.50 area as rate falls back after
attempting a high; fallback after TARP passes suggests more weakness near-term. Traders
note stops and active selling on the way to the lows; bids were only profit takers on the way
down. Cross-spreading likely to pressure USD. Upside resistance remains formidable. Equities
continue to help or hinder depending on the day; weak rally is a selling opp in my view.
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USD / CHF
© 2008 Genesis Financial Technologies, all rights reserved, used with permission.
Comments
Rate makes one more try for highs and possibly building for a reversal; expect a sell signal
from the toolbox soon. Former resistance at 1.1080 area will likely act as support on a
retracement so expect more two-way action. Traders note lower volume. Aggressive traders
can sell rallies anytime in my view. Failure at the highs now challenged and low-volume rally
now may be the new top. Pullbacks have been sold heavily so expect a secure top this time.
Longs will roll stops higher. Late longs likely to have stops rolled up in-range and whipsaw
possible. If Rate falls back under the 1.1080 area after 1.1400 handle fails on this volatility
suggests rate has a lot more downside potential developing; need a sharp break back to
again feel for the top.
NONE
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USD / CAD
© 2008 Genesis Financial Technologies, all rights reserved, used with permission.
Resistance 3: 1.1180
Resistance 2: 1.1140/50 Currently flat—looking to sell a rally.
Resistance 1: 1.1090
Latest New York: 1.1021
Support 1: 1.0800/10 1.0900 negates potential top; more selling and a
reversal pattern needed to feel for a top.
Support 2: 1.0750
Support 3: 1.0700
Comments
Rate scores the 1.0900 handle and first top is now negated. Possible whipsaw may trigger
stops rolled-up by longs but aggressive selling needed to find a new top. Likely to rotate
lower if the USD whipsaws because this rate is likely only following along for the ride and
not fundamentally a strong rate. Former resistance at 1.0550 area will act as support so
expect stops under the 1.0550 area on the way down. The longs likely to quit on a weekly
close under 1.0400 I think; until then expect a lot of two-way action and the top to be some
work to find. Stops likely under the 1.0700 area today but out of range so far. Rally has
spooked a lot of shorts no doubt. Upside likely to stall at weekly resistance around the
1.1200 area; expect a reversal on that rally if we get it.
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…continued from page 1
USD Mixed, cont.
expecting a coordinated before recovering sharply support/resistance levels. from USD/JPY. Other
rate cut between the Fed, to make a hook reversal USD/JPY had a large pairs are firm but off their
ECB and BOE relatively from the toolbox. Traders inside range day as well highs from yesterday;
soon but analysts are note solid big-name bids rallying as high at 103.30 aggressive traders are
divided on the scope of off the lows suggesting before dropping back near a sell in the USD in
the move. As traders the rate may be toward lows seen in Asia my view. Look for the
debate the near-term bottoming. EURO rallied at 101.26; no doubt Majors to continue in two-
implications of such action as well with a high print volatility due to the way trade today as
the Majors overnight 1.3624 before falling back; surprise rate-cut by the fundamental news likely to
remained range-bound for traders note in both pairs RBA. Traders note that be ignored.
the most part awaiting technical trade dominates Yen remains the strongest
additional news. GBP with stops in-range at currency on the board and
made a brief low at 1.7316 previous expect more downside
Today’s Quote:
“Listening to both sides of a story will convince you that there is more to a story
than both sides.”
Frank Tyger
Trading is not really about flow is the only thing that order flow to the market. where that is as far as
“bullish” or “bearish” as far matters. The net order flow price potential is
as the market is becomes the actual traded concerned; you are now
concerned. By listening to the bullish prices. learning the whole story.
argument and the bearish
It’s about knowing how argument; you open your In order to understand The whole story is not bull
likely it might be for the thinking to see a broader how best to trade the or bear—but rather net
order flow to change and picture which is the market it is good to know action.
in which direction. location of the order flow. where the net order flow
might come in at. Once Be focused on the net
That change in the order Both bulls and bears add you have a clear idea order flow.
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