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15 August, 2011
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS 1.37701.34101.3050 Await fresh signal. Awaiting Buy Trade Setup above 80.00. Await signal.
STOP
MARK EUR/USD ET
GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
1.4250
0.9960 1.0070
1.00601.02101.0670 (Entered 12082011) 0.97050.95400.8770 Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Exited at 1730. Await Sell Trade Setup below 37.0000.
0.9810 1.0310
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01
EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD
FAILED
BREAKOUTS
PIVOT ZONE
EUR/USDs price activity remains bearish, following several reactionary bounces which failed in resistance at 1.4420. This confirms yet another bearish signal, weighed down by additional failed breakouts from this major Bermuda triangle pattern, which has proved costly to most investors and traders. We prefer to open a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningful directional breakout and have activated a sell order at 1.4060.
REVERSAL PATTERN REVERSAL PATTERN AT 200 DMA (1.3945) TREND 2 YEARS (1.3860)
Our long standing bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (from May 04th) holds. A resumption lower will target 1.3945 (200-DMA), where a large amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for repeat support or a big squeeze lower toward our initial objectives at 1.3770 and 1.3410. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead to a reassessment of this view. Inversely, the US dollar index is maintaining its oversold bounce from key support at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of
defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multiweek/month horizon. COT liquidity readings are continuing to support further US dollar strength, nearing our trigger level of 15000 net long contracts.
13
STILL UNWINDING!
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.4060, Obj: 1.37701.34101.3050 Stop:1.4250
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
GBP/USD GBP/USD
Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested as support (not shown), suggesting that the recovery from 1.4231, in the weekly timeframe, remains intact. To a degree, the recent strength seen in Sterling is also down to it being GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP perceived as a haven from the stresses in the Eurozone. Failure to remain above 1.6085 (200-day MA) will warn of a fresh relapse towards 1.5781, in the longer-term. GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY USD/JPY
84.50
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)
EARTHQUAKE SHOCK!
moves above that all important level at 80.00. This would initiate our buy trade setup, offering a resumption of the preferred new structural bull-cycle.
82.00
Near-term support can be found at 76.3025 (major lows). Only a sustained weekly close below here will lead to a reassessment of our view.
To trigger the impulsive move higher, we still need a close above strategic
PIR II
USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)
levels at 80.00, then 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high-major trend-line breakout target).
CONFLUENCE ZONE
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto 88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
13
WAVE 5
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
USD/CHF USD/CHF
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
USD/CAD USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
USD/CAD (Weekly )
200-dMA (0.9814)
(June swing high) is likely to hold. Further inter-market confluence is also found on CHF/CAD which is
REVERSAL PATTERN
continuing to unwind sharply from extremely overbought conditions, having triggered a bearish reversal pattern.
200-dMA (1.3676)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
LONG 3: 0.9960, Obj: 1.00601.02101.0670, Stop: 0.9810
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
AUD/USD
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)
AUD/USD
200-DMA (1.0305)
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320. The Aussie dollar is unwinding against the Japanese yen, following its sharp
pattern breakout which extended beneath key support at 80.42 (61.8% Fib).
13
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNAL
The move adds to current risk aversion in the global financial community.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
GBP/JPY GBP/JPY
50-week MA
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
EUR/JPY EUR/JPY
200-dMA
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in trade direction.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
EUR/GBP EUR/GBP
200-dMA
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
EUR/CHF EUR/CHF
200-dMA
However, the question still remains as to how long the ECB can maintain yields at or below current levels, considering the size of the Italian bond market. As mentioned in earlier reports, a sustained break over 6% in
Spanish and Italian 10 year yields could potentially cause serious funding EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP issues in both of these nations. Maintaining these yields under 6% in the absence of any real improvements may prove a step too far for the ECB. While under 1.1374 our bias remains firmly lower. A move back over EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 1.1892 is required to end our bearish bias.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
GOLD
GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)
GOLD
RISK ZONE
III
ZAR). Interestingly, Gold is finally rallying in CHF terms, having just broken out of a multi-month consolidation pattern. We see this as a potential negative signal for the yellow metal, as investors unwind safe-haven flows from the recently competitive CHF and related proxies. In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity which has
TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS) GOLD in USD GOLD in EUR
surged above its 12-year trend-channel. The parabolic move also recently developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal, which coincides with an important cycle on Gold (illustrated on the large chart). Keeping all of this in mind, the current bearish pattern has an increased risk
GOLD in CHF
to offer setbacks into of near-term support at 1720.00 and 1640.40 (recent low). A break beneath here would warn of a sharper reversal lower through the previous psychological level at 1600.00. Only a sustained close above the record highs at 1814.95 would offer higher extensions into 2000.00.
II
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
Gold daily, weekly chart and Liquidity COT Readings, Bloomberg Finance LP
SILVER SILVER
Silver (Daily)
TARGET 2 (43.1136/43.8477)
13
13
50% (41.0513)
Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
37%
61.8% (21.5165)
OVER PATTERN
30 YEAR BASE
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. www.migbank.com You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before 14
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