Sep 18th Sep 24th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 20

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook
EURUSD opens with a gap down reaching a low near 1.3660. As we talked about Friday further movement down was expected prior to a break up towards 1.4030 area. The EU has it's big scheduled news Tuesday Morning the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which is expected to worsen. The pressure continues to hold down the EURO and a new low below 1.3494 is possible before another move higher. The Euro Zone is most prominent in the news at the moment but will be sharing the spot light with the US this week as the FOMC will unveil their rate decision and a possible plan of QE3, which the markets are looking for on Wednesday, if this occurs we could see the USD Dollar take further losses.

In this issue: Fundamental Outlook EURUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD 2 1

EURJPY

GBPJPY Event Risk Contact Info Disclaimer

4 5

The EU braces for for Greece. "EU finance ministers made clear to Greece over the weekend it must meet targets to get fresh funds but broke no new ground in dealing with the debt crisis shaking the euro". We await a conference call for European Union and International Monetary Fund inspectors with Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos to hear how Greece will plug this year's budget shortfall. Venizelos spoke to reporters expressing Greece needed to fully meet 2011 and 2012 budget targets, stop generating debt and start producing surpluses. As uncertainty is looming in the Euro Zone the

Euro / United States Dollar

EURUSD: Gains above 1.3950 can be expected in the near term. With a gap down to start the week we may see further losses before the rebound up continues. We have support at 1.3650 1.3585, 1.3550 and 1.3494. Resistance stands at 1.3767 1.3830 1.3880 1.3900 and 1.3936. Current pressure to start the week is to the downside and may push to lower lows. Outlook: Bearish Bias, We look to start the week with further losses to lower support levels looking to be held up by 1.35851.3550, if this area breaks 1.3494 will be in jeopardy and a lower low for the month will most likely. If these support levels hold we expect a break back up to 1.3900 and higher will be very probable.

Sep 18th Sep 24th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 20

Elite Global Trading

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: After last weeks low of 1.1077 we had a small rebound up last week to 1.0400 with this being an area of resistance the pair bounced off and moved back down towards area of congestion of 1.0350. The open this week gave this pair a gap down to 1.0300 area, we see a continued move towards 1.0200 to start the week off, a possible test of lows at 1.0177. Once another bottom is established a move back to test 1.0400 can most likely be expected. Outlook: Bearish Bias, support sits at 1.0240 1.0195, 1.0177 1.0150. Resistance stands at 1.0315 1.0347, 1.0400, 1.0471. Look for a low to start the week off and a move higher towards middle to end of week.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: As the British pound continues it's slide down from 1.6600 area reaching new lows to open the week near 1.5700. Likely to see movement down for the longer term towards the low 1.5000s. For now a support level is around 1.5640 area that will likely be tested this week. With BOE minutes coming out this week on Wednesday Morning, we will likely see some sort of easing being proposed for the UK, which will in the long run weaken the pound. We also have to consider dollar weakness that may occur later this week after FOMC on Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs we may get a rally up in the GBPUSD, which should be capped below 1.6000. Look for moves lower in this pair after rally's. Outlook: Bearish Bias, possible intraday rallies that will not be sustaining. A move back up towards 1.5900 is very possible, but likely to be a weak recovery. Starting the week out with continued movement down towards 1.5640 and 1.5600. On the rally up look for resistance at 1.5787, 1.5843, 1.5890, 1.5935. We prefer the bear plays after the rally, especially with the BOE looking to continue to weaken their currency.

Sep 18th Sep 24th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 20

Elite Global Trading

Euro / Australian Dollar

EURAUD: This cross pair has a very large range it has been trading in since September 2010. Between 1.4400-1.2900, which is a very large range, we just last week touched the bottom part of that range and are now reversing back towards the upside. We expect over the next couple of weeks for this pair to move back up near the 1.3800-1.4000 levels. Outlook: Bullish bias, we are in a pullback that should finish in the next few sessions near 1.3250 area. With the EURUSD looking to continue it's rebound later this week towards the 1.4030 level, we see this pair following. Look for support at 1.3233, 1.3174 1.3055. Resistance on the way up 1.3422, 1.3472, 1.3595.

Japanese Yen Pairs

Yen Pairs: USDJPY is in a very tight range between 77.70-76.40 for that past 30+ days and we do expect a break out in either direction soon. With FOMC out on Wednesday, if they move to do move QE then we will most likely see the break out to downside, but do not expect BOJ to let it fall to far before they step in. EURJPY is still pushing to downside with potential of going to low of 103.88 area again this week and possible lower, along with EURO weakness. GBPJPY is looking to make lower lows but may drift higher if GBP rallies, this pair wants to move towards the 118.00 area for its next major move down. Which could come this week with how we are looking now trading at 120.75 area. If YEN gains some substantial strength we will certainly get some action from BOJ so be cautious of any shorts on these pairs. The BOJ wants the USDJPY up around 82.00 so we could see this happen in the month to come.

Sep 18th Sep 24th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 20

Elite Global Trading

Weeks Event Risk

Monday: AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Min 9:30pm

Tuesday: CHF: Trade Balance 2am EUR: German PPI 2am EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5am USD: Bulding Permits 8:30am NZD: Current Account 6:45pm

Wednesday: GBP: MPC Meeting Min 4:30am GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing 4:30am USD: Existing Home Sales 10am USD: FOMC Statement 2:15pm NZD: GDP 6:45pm

Thursday: EUR: Flash PMI 3-4am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am AUD: Financial Stability Review 9:30pm

Friday: GBP: BBA Mortgage Approvals 4:30am EUR: Belgium NBB Business Climate 9am EUR: ECB Trichet Speaks 4:30pm

Elite Global Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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