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Weekly
WeeklyFX
FXCommentary
Commentary
Web: www.eliteglobaltrader.com
Authors: Anthony Rousseau & James Putra

May 22th 2011 – May 28st 2011

Trader Insight: Fear of making the right decision: Event Risk of the Week:
** All times in (UTC-05:00) Eastern Time (US & Canada)
Have you ever processed all the data necessary in making a decision on a trade, took time to thoroughly
evaluate the trade based on your defined parameters, when done made the call and walked away feeling Monday:
good? I'm sure most of you are saying sure, happens frequently with my disciplined trading style. Well • EUR: Flash PMI 3am-4am
I'm sure some of you, like I have felt the fear that once the decision was made and action taken that it • NZD: Inflation Expectation 11pm
was maybe the wrong decision. This is a natural emotion of fear that we all deal with everyday of our
lives in all the decisions we make. It's critical that we stand by our decisions we make, no matter right or Tuesday:
wrong, when the work has been done to move forward with a decision. This is not time to second guess • EUR: German Ifo Business Climate
the work, unless you feel the work was done inaccurately. 4am
• GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing
It's crucial to your trading career that you are aware when fear enters your thoughts. This awareness will 4:30am
allow you to assess the work you have done to logically walk away feeling confident with the decision. • USD: New Home Sales 10am
An exercise you can do to conquer this is: when you enter into this scenario, recognize it, write down
• JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Min
what your feeling and why you are feeling that way. Identify if the work has been done accurately and if
7:50pm
you conclude it has you will then have faced your fear of making the right decision.

Trade of the week: Wednesday:

• EUR: GFK German Consumer
USDJPY long Confidence 2am
• GBP: Revised GDP 4:30am
Support: 81.67, 81.48, 81.10 • USD: Core Durable Goods 8:30am

Stronger support at 80.58 and 79.56 Thursday:

• USD: Revised GDP 8:30am
Targets: 82.50, 83.30, 84.00 • USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am
Friday:
Keep stop below 80.58 • GBP: National HPI 2am
• EUR: German Preliminary CPI
• CHF: KOF Economic Barometer
5:30am
• USD: Pending Home Sales 10am

FX & Commodity Market Focus and Technical Analysis

Currency/Commodity Market Focus Short Term 0-3 Mth Support Resistance
Comment Forecast

EUR/USD • EUR/USD hit 1.4345 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.4158 by Strong 1.4500 1.4047 1.4345
close of trade, easing up 0.48% over the week. Bearish
• In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be the
main focus of attention, while the euro zone is to release a closely watched report on Germany’s business climate.
USD/JPY • USD/JPY 82.23 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since April 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 81.69 by close Bullish 83.00 80.72 81.33
of trade on Friday, gaining 1.02% over the week.
• In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus of
attention, while Japan is to publish data on its trade balance and retail sales.
GBP/USD • GBP/USD hit 1.6304 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6228 by Bearish 1.6300 1.6105 1.6304
close of trade, easing up just 0.12% over the week.
• In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be the
main focus of attention. The U.K. is also to publish revised data on first quarter GDP.
USD/CHF • USD/CHF hit 0.8746 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since May 10; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8771 by Strong 0.8900 0.8675 0.8937
close of trade, tumbling 1.73% over the week Bullish
• In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be a
major focus of attention, while Switzerland is to publish official data on its trade balance and employment level.
USD/CAD • USD/CAD hit 0.9653 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9738 by Strong 0.9800 0.9603 0.9739
close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.53% over the week. Bullish
• In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be a
major focus of attention, while markets in Canada are to stay closed on Monday.
AUD/USD • AUD/USD hit 1.0710 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0657 by Neutral 1.0100 1.0594 1.0888
close of trade, climbing 0.75% over the week.
• In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus of
attention, while Australia is to publish data on private capital expenditure. The guide skips Monday, as there are no
relevant events on this day.
NZD/USD • NZDUSD hit 0.7997 on Friday, the pair's highest since May 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7955 by close Bearish 0.7700 0.7860 0.8064
of trade, jumping 1.35% over the week.
• In the week ahead, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus of
attention, while New Zealand is to publish a report on inflation expectations. The guide skips Monday, as there are
no relevant events on this day.
NY Crude Oil • Crude oil pricesfell during this past week, settling below $100/Barrel. Heavy pessimism weighed down commodity Neutral USD USD USD
markets keeping pressure on crude prices with investors growing concern over major global economies show signs 120.00 92.60 110.71
of slowing growth.
• In the week ahead important US economic reports are due out on growth, income and spending with an expected
heavy impact on crude prices. Price outlook is unclear expect oil volatility to dominate crude oil movement.
Gold • Gold prices rebounded last week, adding 1.2 percent having suffered heavy losses over the preceding 10 days. Bearish USD USD USD
• Looking ahead, three weeks until QE2 is completed expect an increased urgency behind the unwinding of gold 1,500 1,361 1,577
positions pushing gold lower in the process.
* Note FX & Commodity Market Focus and Technical Analysis source Citibank Wealth Management & Forex Pros