INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVELY COUPLED EQUATORIAL

WAVES AND MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATIONS

ON HEAT WAVES OVER INDIA

Zore Tukaram Chandrakant

INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVELY COUPLED EQUATORIAL
WAVES AND MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATIONS
ON HEAT WAVES OVER INDIA

Thesis submitted to the

Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
in partial fulfilment for the Award of the Degree

of

Master of Technology
in
Climate Science and Technology
by

Zore Tukaram Chandrakant

17CL06016

Under the guidance of

Dr. Kiranmayi Landu

SCHOOL OF EARTH, OCEAN AND CLIMATE SCIENCES

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY BHUBANESWAR
(MAY, 2019)

© 2019 Zore Tukaram Chandrakant. All rights reserved.

Dedicated
to
my family
 भारतीय प्रौद्योगिकी संस्थान भुवनेश्वर
Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
पृथ् वी, महासािर एवं जलवायु गवज्ञान गवद्यापीठ
School of Earth, Ocean & Climate Sciences

APPROVAL OF THE VIVA-VOCE BOARD

02-May-2019

Certified that the thesis entitled “Influence of Convectively Coupled Equatorial waves
and Madden Julian Oscillation on Heat Waves over India”, submitted by Shri Zore
Tukaram Chandrakant to the Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, in partial
fulfilment for the award of the degree of Master of Technology in Climate Science and
Technology, has been accepted by the examiners and that the student has successfully
defended the thesis in the viva-voce examination held today.

Supervisor

Internal Examiner - I Internal Examiner - II

External Examiner Chairman

अरगल ु , जटनी -752050, ओड़िशा, भारत , फोन: +91 674 713 5505
Argul, Jatni – 752050, Odisha, India, Phone: +91 674 713 5505, Website: www.iitbbs.ac.in
 भारतीय प्रौद्योगिकी संस्थान भुवनेश्वर
Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
पृथ् वी, महासािर एवं जलवायु गवज्ञान गवद्यापीठ
School of Earth, Ocean & Climate Sciences

CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the thesis entitled Influence of Convectively Coupled Equatorial
waves and Madden Julian Oscillation on Heat Waves over India, submitted by Shri
Zore Tukaram Chandrakant to Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, is a
record of bona fide research work under my supervision and I consider it worthy of
consideration for the award of the degree of Master of Technology of the Institute.

Date: Dr. Kiranmayi Landu

Assistant Professor
School of Earth Ocean and Climate Science
Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
Bhubaneswar, India

Place: Bhubaneswar

अरगल ु , जटनी -752050, ओड़िशा, भारत , फोन: +91 674 713 5505
Argul, Jatni – 752050, Odisha, India, Phone: +91 674 713 5505, Website: www.iitbbs.ac.in
 DECLARATION

I certify that

a. The work contained in the thesis is original and has been done by myself
under the general supervision of my supervisor(s).
b. The work has not been submitted to any other Institute for any degree or
diploma.
c. I have followed the guidelines provided by the Institute in writing the thesis.
d. I have conformed to the norms and guidelines given in the Ethical Code of
Conduct of the Institute.
e. Whenever I have used materials (data, theoretical analysis, and text) from
other sources, I have given due credit to them by citing them in the text of the
thesis and giving their details in the references.
f. Whenever I have quoted written materials from other sources, I have put
them under quotation marks and given due credit to the sources by citing them
and giving required details in the references.

(Zore Tukaram Chandrakant)

iii
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

First and foremost, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to my research guide Dr.
Kiranmayi Landu for introducing me to this exciting field of science and for her dedicated
help, advice, inspiration, encouragement and continuous support, throughout. Her
guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis.

I would also like to thank all the Course Instructors at the School of Earth, Ocean and
Climate Sciences for having enriched my knowledge on different research topics. I am
sincerely thankful to the Head of the School, Dr. Sandeep Pattnaik for all his guidance,
motivation and providing the necessary research facilities in the department.

I would also like to thank all the data provider (IMD, NOAA, ER-Interim, and MERRA)
for their good data product without which this project would not have been successful.

It is most difficult to overstate my gratitude to my Zore Family for providing me with

unfailing support and continuous encouragement throughout my years of study and
through the process of researching and writing this thesis. This accomplishment would
not have been possible without them.

My sincere thanks to my friends Shivam Soni, Manmit Singh, Zakhir Bhai, Soumya,
Navinya, Abhishek, Pushpa, Sushree for their mental support and valuable motivation to
carry on my research. I would also like to thank my seniors Himadri Bhaiya, Satyendra
Bhaiya, Partha Bhaiya, and, Ansual Bhaiya for their valuable help. I would also like to
thank my group member Keshav Guruji and Keshav Arora for their valuable inputs and
help throughout my research.

I would also take this opportunity to be grateful to Prof. R V Raja Kumar, Director, IIT
Bhubaneswar for promoting full-fledged Research and Development facilities in the
Institute, and attempting to develop an ecosystem for innovation.

Zore Tukaram Chandrakant

iv
 ABSTRACT

One of the important consequences of changing climate is the increase in

temperature extremes and heat stress over many regions of the world and is major
concern over developing nations like India. Predicting these events is important for
reducing losses and managing resources and this mainly depends on an understanding of
the factors that modulate these events on different time scales. In particular,
understanding and prediction on subseasonal time scales is beneficial for decision-
makers. In this study, the effect of tropical intraseasonal oscillations like convectively
coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO) in
modulating heat waves occurrence over India is explored. The effect of CCEWs like
equatorial Rossby wave (ER), Kelvin wave, mixed Rossby gravity waves along with
tropical depressions (MT) and Madden and Julian oscillations (MJO) on extreme heat
events during pre-monsoon months of April, May and June is explored. It is shown that
these oscillations have significant effect on modulating extreme events, and the extent of
modulation is highly dependent on the type and phase of the waves and varies spatially.
Maximum effect is observed in case of ER with dry (wet) phase increasing (decreasing)
the frequency of occurrence of heat waves throughout the country. Effect of MJO is
region dependent with dry phase increasing the heat wave frequency over south and
eastern parts of the country. Effect of Kelvin and MT waves is smaller, and mostly reduce
heat wave occurrence. Further the time evolution of this waves-heat wave interactions are
further explored as it is shown that with global climate change scenario this waves
intensity are changing. We have found that during the time period of 1997 to 2013 the
MJO and Kelvin wave dry phase significantly increase the frequency of heat wave as
compare to earlier period i.e. 1979 to 1996 but the ER dry phase as shown the decrease in
heat wave frequency in recent years. The duration and intensity modulation of heat wave
in different time period also explored.

Keywords: Heat waves, Indian weather, Intraseasonal oscillations, convectively coupled

equatorial waves

v
 Table of Contents

APPROVAL OF THE VIVA-VOCE BOARD ..................................................................... i

CERTIFICATE..................................................................................................................... ii
DECLARATION................................................................................................................. iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................ iv
ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................... v
LIST OF FIGURES………………………………………………………................................. viii

LIST OF SYMBOLS & ABBRIVATIONS …………………………....................................... x

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background Study ......................................................................................................1
1.1.1 Heat waves ...........................................................................................................1
1.1.2 Equatorial Waves and Intraseasonal Oscillations ................................................3
1.2 Literature Review .......................................................................................................6
1.3 Objective .....................................................................................................................9

CHAPTER 2
DATA & METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................10
2.1 Data ...........................................................................................................................10
2.2 Methodology .............................................................................................................11
2.2.1 Equatorial Wave Filtering...................................................................................12
2.2.2 Extreme Temperature Indices………………………………………………….12

CHAPTER 3
CLIMATOLOGY OF HEAT WAVES ..............................................................................15
3.1 Modulation of Frequency of Occurrence of Heat Waves .........................................15
3.2 Modulation of Duration and Intensity ......................................................................19
3.3 Dynamics of equatorial waves during Heat Wave ...................................................22

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 CHAPTER 4
TRENDS IN HEAT WAVES ............................................................................................24
4.1 Yearly Trends in Heat Wave ....................................................................................24
4.2 Modulation of Duration and Intensity in two different epochs ................................26
4.3 Modulation of Heat wave probability by waves in different time period. ................28
4.4 Dynamics of Waves in two different Epochs ...........................................................34

CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................36

PUBLICATIONS ...............................................................................................................38
REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................39

vii
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1. Dispersion diagram for equatorial waves as a function of nondimensional

zonal wavenumber k, and nondimensional frequency ω (up to n = 4). Where
ω*=ω/(β𝑔ℎ ) 1/2 , and k*=k𝑔ℎ /𝛽)1/2 (adapted from Kiladis et al. 2009) .................4

Figure 2.1. Normalized wavenumber–frequency spectrum of OLR. Spectral bands of the

four filters used for filtering are indicated by the heavy solid lines ( adapted from
Frank and Roundy 2006). .........................................................................................12

Figure 2.2. a) The average maximum temperature distribution over India during AMJ
months in degree Celsius. b) Monthly distribution of percentage of days above 90th
percentile temperature...............................................................................................13

Figure 2.3. The 90th percentile temperature distribution over India. ................................14

Figure 3.1. Difference in percentage of probability of heat wave events from climatology
different phases of ER, MJO, Kelvin and MT from climatology. The grids with 95%
confidence are shown by ‘dots’ and negative region is shown by black contour. ....17

Figure 3.2. The average change in percentage of heat waves event during different phases
of the wave compared to climatology. ......................................................................18

Figure 3.3. Percentage histogram distribution of number of heat wave events with
different durations. ....................................................................................................20

Figure 3.4. Percentage of heat wave events with 1-2 days duration and 3-10 days duration
corresponding to climatology and ER-dry phase, from different data sets a) IMD
data set (1979 - 2013). b) ERA- Interim reanalysis data set (1979 – 2013). C)
MERRA-2 data set (1980 – 2013). ...........................................................................20

Figure 3.5. Percentage histogram distribution of number heat waves with different
intensities for climatology and ER-dry phase. ..........................................................21

Figure 3.6. Percentage of heat wave events with temperatures between 40-43°C and 44-
47°C using three different data sources. a) IMD data set (1979 - 2013). b) ERA-
Interim reanalysis data (1979 – 2013). C) MERRA-2 data set (1980 – 2013). ........21

viii
Figure 3.7. Composite anomalies of OLR (shaded) and 850hpa wind during heat wave
events corresponding to dry phase of a) ER, b) MJO, c) Kelvin, d) MT. .................22

Figure 4.1. Trend in heat wave percentage during the presence of dry phase of different
waves. a) ER, b) MJO, c) Kelvin, d) MT..................................................................25

Figure 4.2. Percent of heat wave events corresponding to different durations for
Climatology, ER dry phase and MJO dry phase over the time period of 1997 to
1996 (epoch1) and 1997 to 2013 (epoch2). ..............................................................26

Figure 4.3. Percentage of heat wave events with intensities between 40 - 43°C (Low
intensity) and 44 - 47°C (High intensity) for different time period 1979 to 1996 and
1997 to 2013..............................................................................................................28

Figure 4.4. Difference in percentage of probability of heat wave events of different

phases of ER, MJO, Kelvin and MT from climatology for period of 1979 to 1996.
‘Dot’ shows the 95 percent significant level.............................................................29

Figure 4.5. Same as figure 4 but time period of 1997 to 2013. .........................................30

Figure 4.6. Overall change in percentage of heat waves probability during different
phases of tropical waves for time period from 1979 – 1996.....................................32

Figure 4.7. Same as figure 4.6. But for time period of 1997 – 2013. ................................32

Figure 4.8. Composite of anomalies of OLR (shaded) and 850hpa wind during heat wave
events in two different epochs (left [1979 to 1996] & right [1997 to 2013]
corresponding to dry phase of a) ER, b) MJO, c) Kelvin, d) MT. The contours are
shown for negative OLR ...........................................................................................33

ix
 LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS

AMA April-May-June

β Coriolis parameter

ER Equatorial Rossby

ETCCDI Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices

g Earth gravitational Constant

H Equivalent depth of the atmosphere

IMD India Meteorological Department

k Zonal wave number

OLR Outgoing Longwave Radiation

MJO Madden Julian Oscillation

MRG-TD (MT) Mixed Rossby Gravity and Tropical Depressions

n Meridional Mode Number

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

WMO World Meteorological Organisation

ω Wave number

x
 Chapter 1

1. Introduction
1.1 Background Study

1.1.1 Heat waves

Heat waves are primarily associated with exclusively hot weather condition which
last for longer period but there is no standard definition for heat waves. Different
countries have different definition of heat wave according to the regional normal
temperature and climatology of place but heat waves are more common and frequent
phenomena in summer season than in the winter season. Heat wave is consider as extreme
weather event and dangerous to humans because the abnormal high temperature over heat
the human body leading to sunstrokes, heat cramps, and even death and it is more
common in poor people who are frequently exposed to open environment. The heat wave
also affects various other sector such as agricultural, psychological and sociological
effect, power outage, wild fires etc. The extreme temperature occurrence reduces the
moisture in soil which affects the production of crops such as rice, sugarcane, corn etc.
that depends on the moist soil and water for growing. Abnormally high temperature in
summer months cause higher usage of cooling systems and water which increase the
electricity demand causing more consumption of power. If hot spell remains for more
than three to four days then the night time temperature does not cool down much and heat
absorbed by the buildings and homes remains for several day which requires early start of
air conditioner and stay on later in day which may leads to power outage. The extreme
heat also causes a mental disturbance in humans due to discomfort of body and it may
leads to increase in violent crimes (Bell 1981; Hansen et al. 2008). Additionally, high

1
temperature have an adverse effect on the economy of country. The heat wave with
drought conditions results into dry hot weather conditions which can causes agricultural
losses and wild fires. During disastrous heat wave of 2003 in Europe, fire stormed
through Portugal destroying over 740,000 acres of forest and 110,000 of agricultural land
(Meehl and Tebaldi 2004). Extreme high temperature may also cause the buckling of
highways and rail tracks, explode power transformer, bursting of water pipelines.

The world meteorological organization (WMO) defines a heat wave as period for
which the daily maximum temperature is higher than normal maximum daily temperature
by 9°F (5°C) for consecutive 5 days and more. The WMO/CLIVAR joint Expert Team on
Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) defines the climate extremes such as
extreme temperature on the basis of threshold criteria (Panda et al 2014). Other than the
WMO definition, many countries have their own definitions according to their
geographical location and temperature climatology. The India Meteorological Department
(IMD) defines a heat wave as the days with the maximum temperature of station at plain
area is 40°C or more and at least 30°C or more in hilly regions (IMD Terminologies and
Glossary). Following criteria are used to declare a heat waves.

a) If normal maximum temperature of station less than equal to 40°C

Heat Wave: 5°C to 6°C departure from normal maximum temperature
Severe Heat wave: 7°C and more departure from normal maximum
temperature.

b) Normal maximum temperature of station greater than 40°C

Heat wave: 4°C to 5°C departure from normal maximum temperature

Severe Heat Wave: 6°C and more departure from normal maximum
temperature.
c) The heat wave should be declare without considering the normal maximum
temperature if the temperature reaches greater than or equal to 45°C.

If the above criteria is met at least in 2 stations in a Meteorological sub-division for at

least two consecutive days then it is be declared as a heat wave on the second day.

2
 Every year India experiences high number of casualties due to severe heat waves
during pre-monsoon season. The 2015 deadliest heat wave that occurred in Andhra
Pradesh, Telangana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and Bihar took the lives of 2500
people. More than 20000 people have died due to extreme temperature condition in India
since 1990. 2042 people died in 1998 in Orissa (Kumar Jenamani 2012), 3045 people
died in Andhra Pradesh due to heat wave in 2003, 1344 died in Gujarat in 2010 (Bhadram
et al. 2005; Azhar et al. 2014). 793 people died in 2011 while 1,247 died in 2012 and
1216 people died in 2013 due to heat related causes in India (Kunal Sehgal 2015).

There are many factors which contributes to the development of heat waves such as
anomalous sinking motions due to high pressure, large scale oscillation such as El Nino,
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), and Intraseasonal
oscillations like Madden and Julian Oscillations and Planetary Rossby. In this study we
have explore the relationship between the equatorial waves and Intraseasonal oscillation
with heat waves.

1.1.2 Equatorial Waves and Intraseasonal Oscillations

Tropical atmosphere is dominated by zonally propagating oscillations in the time

scales less than a season. These waves decay rapidly away from the equator. Most of
these zonally propagating waves can be theoretically explained as solutions to “Shallow
water (SW) equation on the equatorial beta plane” which governs the motion in a layer of
constant density fluid when restoring forcing are gravity and linearly varying Coriolis
parameter.

The theoretical solution of this equatorial waves was first given by Matsuno (1966) using
shallow water equation, which states the vertical extend of fluid is very less compare to
its horizontal extent. This was further expanded by Adrian Gill (Gill 1982) to explain the
nature of these waves in the atmosphere. The solution to these equation are zonally and
vertically propagating which are characterized by four parameter: meridional mode
number (n), frequency (ω), planetary zonal wavenumber (k), and equivalent depth (h) of

3
the shallow layer of fluid. The different types of the zonally trapped waves observed in
the tropical atmosphere are, convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW), Equatorial
Rossby wave (ER), Mixed Rossby Gravity wave (MRG) and Inertia Gravity waves
(IGW). Assuming wave solutions to shallow water equations, solution results in the
dispersion relation that decay away from the equator and describes the fundamental
property of the wave motion by relating the wave frequency ω and zonal wave number k.

Figure 1.1. Dispersion diagram for equatorial waves as a function of nondimensional

zonal wavenumber k, and nondimensional frequency ω (up to n = 4). Where
ω*=ω/(β√𝑔ℎ ) 1/2 , and k*=k√𝑔ℎ /𝛽)1/2 (adapted from Kiladis et al. 2009)

4
 𝜔 2 𝑘 𝛽
( ) − 𝑘2 − 𝛽 = (2𝑛 + 1) ∗ ………………………… (1)
∁ 𝜔 ∁

This equation gives a relation between w and k, for each positive integer n,
defining the horizontal dispersion relation for waves. This equation is cubic in nature
resulting in different waves. The dispersion equation of kelvin wave is obtain by putting
the meridional velocity equal to zero in shallow water equation.

The Kelvin wave is an eastward propagating wave with phase speed of 12m/s to
25m/s and typical time period of 6 to 7 days. There is no meridional flow for kelvin wave
and zonal flows are in geostrophic balance. The dispersion relation for kelvin wave is
given as.

𝜔 = 𝑘√𝑔ℎ

Where, k is zonal wave number, g is gravitational constant, h is the equivalent depth of

atmosphere, and ω is frequency.

For low frequencies, the solution results in equatorial Rossby (ER) wave given as.

−𝛽𝑘
𝜔=
𝛽
(𝑘 2 + (2𝑛 + 1)
∁
Where, β is Coriolis parameter and n is the meridional mode number.

This wave propagate westward with time period of 10 to 50 days. The Mixed
Rossby Gravity wave (MRG) have time period of 4 to 5 days and move with the speed of
3 to 8m/s. These wave have both eastward and westward propagating mode. The wave
with period shorter than 2 days propagate westward while wave with periods longer than
2 days propagate westward. The dispersion relation for mixed Rossby gravity wave is
obtained from equation 2 when n=0 and is given as

𝑘 √𝑔ℎ 4𝛽
𝜔= {1 − √1 + }
2 𝑘 2 √𝑔ℎ

5
 Westward propagating component of MRG wave is more prominent in
atmosphere and wavenumber & frequency space of MRG and TD coincides more
frequently. Hence in most studies this two are consider together (Frank and Roundy
2006).

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is another prominent intraseasonal

oscillation dominating tropical atmosphere. It was first identified by Madden and Julian in
1971. The MJO is a coupled ocean atmosphere system. The oscillation originate with the
development of a surface low pressure anomaly over the Indian Ocean, accompanied by
enhanced boundary layer moisture convergence, increases convection, warming of the
troposphere and rising of tropopause height. The anomalous pattern propagates eastward
at about 5m/s to 10m/s speed and reaches maximum intensity over the western pacific.
The period of MJO is roughly around 30-60 days. The spatial scale of the atmospheric
MJO can be described in terms of wavenumber 1 to 5.

Many studies detected these waves in the atmosphere from ground based and
satellite observations, like Outgoing Longwave Radiation data, perceptible water etc.
(Wheeler and Kiladis 1999, Roundy and Frank, 2004). One of the prominent studies by
Wheeler and Kiladis (1999) has shown the presence of these waves in the atmosphere
using spectral analysis of satellite derived OLR data. The extraction of the different
convectively coupled disturbances in the time-longitude domain is performed by filtering
the OLR dataset for specific zonal wave numbers and frequencies corresponding to these
waves.

1.2 Literature Review

It is well established from observations as well as modeling studies that a large

part of the globe is experiencing a significant shift towards warmer temperatures over the
past few decades (Hansen et al. 2006; Masson-Delmotte et al. 2018). This shift is shown
to be associated with increasing extreme weather events, like heat wave, flood, drought in
terms of intensity and frequency (Easterling et al. 2000; IPCC 2007). In particular
increased heat waves over many parts of the world as a result of this climate change are
shown to have important implications (Easterling et al. 2000; Hansen et al. 2012).

6
According to the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment reports, the
south Asian countries are at major risk with emerging heat waves. India is one such
region with its 1.25 billion peoples working outdoors in agricultural and construction
sector, that is affected by the increased heat waves as a result of accelerated with more
droughts and heat stress, which result in increased mortality and food and water crisis
(Kothawale et al. 2010; May 2011; World Bank 2013; Wheeler and von Braun 2013;
Rohini et al. 2019). The projected future warming over India suggests that the Indian land
mass mainly North, Northwest, central and eastern coastal regions experience
catastrophic heat waves with increased maximum and minimum temperatures during
period of April to June (Bhadram et al. 2005; Kothawale et al. 2010; Pai et al. 2013;
Rohini et al. 2016). This is proven from the increasing trends in the intense heat waves
and related mortality in the recent years (e.g. Mazdiyasni et al 2017).

In this context, it becomes imperative that reliable predictions be made for the
preparedness and resource allocation. This requires an understanding of the short term
variability of these events. While long-term trends are established, short-term variations
of these events depend on various regional and large-scale atmospheric processes. Large-
scale circulations like El Nino, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) as well as Intraseasonal oscillations are known to affect extreme
temperatures over different parts of the world (e.g Kenyon et al. 2008; Arblaster and
Alexander 2012; Kumar Murari et al. 2016; Thirumalai et al. 2017). For example, the
record breaking extreme temperatures in April 2016 in Mainland Southeast Asia (MSA)
are shown to be the result of El Nino of 2015 (Thirumalai et al. 2017) and with the
continuous global warming the intense and frequent extreme temperature events are
shown to occur more frequently in post-Nino years in MSA (Arblaster and Alexander
2012). The study by (Kumar Murari et al. 2016) shows that more intense and longer
duration of heat wave occurs during pre-monsoon season in India during the El Nino
years which results from late onset of Indian summer monsoon by weakening south
westerlies over the Arabian Sea. The heat wave also occur due to atmospheric blocking of
large scale atmospheric circulations. The most of studies shows the atmospheric blocking
occurs mostly in mid-latitudes due to formation of stationary Rossby wave with
anticyclonic circulations (ref). For example the 2003 heat wave in Europe which claims

7
70000 lives and Russia heat waves in 2010 causing death toll of 15000 was associated
with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train (Matsueda 2011;
Coumou et al. 2013). There is also evidence of the heat waves occurrence over India due
to anticyclonic phase of stationary Rossby waves from mid-latitudes (Ratnam et al. 2016).

The occurrence of heat waves in India is mostly associated with anticyclonic

circulation of wind anomalies, with clear sky conditions and decreased soil moisture
(Rohini et al. 2016). The tropical Indian Ocean and pacific SST anomalies are shown to
have significant influence on heat waves over India (Revadekar et al. 2009; Rohini et al.
2016). The heat wave of 1998 and 2003 which claimed 2042 and 3045 lives respectively
in the Indian states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh shows strong correlation with sea
surface temperature (SST) over Bay of Bengal and equatorial pacific (Kumar Jenamani
2012). A study by Ratnam et al. (2016) shows that the atmospheric blocking over North
Atlantic generates quasi-stationary Rossby wave-train which has an anticyclonic phase
over Northern India causing anomalous sinking motion and thereby heat-wave conditions
over North India. intrusion of dry air from west Asian desert to central India is also shown
to cause increased heat wave occurrences over the country (Panda et al. 2017). Studies
also established the role of El Nino showing that more intense and longer duration of heat
wave occurs during pre-monsoon season in India during the El Nino years (e.g. Murari et
al. 2016; De and Mukhopadhyay 1998).

Other large-scale atmospheric variations with periods less than a season (also
called the tropical Intraseasonal oscillations) are also known to impact heat wave
occurrences over different parts of the tropics (Parker et al. 2014a; Matsueda and Takaya
2015). The continuous propagation of wet and dry phases of large-scale oscillations can
have a significant impact on temperature variations. It is shown by previous studies that
the probability and intensity of heat waves over certain regions is modulated by
intraseasonal oscillations like MJO and Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations
(BSISO) (Parker et al. 2014b; Chen and Zhai 2017). The different phases of BSISO are
shown to modulate probability of occurrence of heat waves over Central India (CI),
Yangtze River Valley in China (YR), Korean Peninsula (KP), Japan (JP) (Hsu et al.

8
2017). The study by (Matsueda and Takaya 2015) shows that there is a significant
increase of extreme temperature events by a factor of more than 2 during the active MJO
in the tropics. The study by Parker et al. (2014b) also found that there is an increase in
heat waves over southeast Australia during the particular phase of MJO. Within Indian
region, it is observed that the percent of extreme event probability changes with the phase
of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations (Hsu et al. 2017). This is attributed to
increased longwave heating and sensible heat flux from the surface in clear sky conditions
of dry phase.

However, sub-seasonal drivers of heatwaves over the region are not much
explored over India to the best of our knowledge. The extended range prediction in the
scales of a few weeks to a month is important for decision making in the allocation of
resources and prior warning and preparedness. This can be achieved only by
understanding the role of intraseasonal variations on these events. Intraseasonal
oscillations like convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and Madden and Julian
Oscillations (MJO) play a critical role in modulating tropical weather over India. The
effect of these oscillations on extreme rainfall events over this region is explored in the
previous studies (Subudhi and Landu 2019). But the effect of different convective
coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) and madden Julian oscillation (MJO) on the heat
waves over India is not well understood. Considering the semi-periodic nature of these
oscillations and intraseasonal time periods, understanding and quantifying the role of
these waves on heat extreme will be immensely useful in extended range prediction of
heat waves over the country.

1.3 Objective

In this study, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of CCEWs e (i.e Kelvin wave,
Equatorial Rossby (ER), Mixed Rossby-Gravity and Tropical depression (MT)) and MJO)
on the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme temperatures events over India. Also,
the effect of long-term changes on the wave modulation of temperature extremes is
explored.

9
 Chapter 2

2. Data & methodology

2.1 Data

The daily gridded temperature data set with 1° X 1° resolution developed by the
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) using 395 quality control station is used to
identify extreme events (Srivastava et al. 2009). This gridded data was developed by
using a modified version of Shepard’s angular distance weighting algorithm. The data
quality is estimated using cross validation techniques and RMSE found to be less than
0.5°C. For further detail on the development of gridded data refer Srivastava et al. (2009).
We have used the daily maximum temperature data set covering entire India for the
period from 1979 to 2013. Also the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) 2m maximum temperature data
from 1979 to 2013 with spatial resolution of 1° X 1° ( Dee et al., 2011) and Giovanni
MERRA-2 model hourly 2 meter air temperature with spatial resolution 0.5° X 0.625°
from 1980 to 2013 (Gelaro et al. 2017) is used for corroborating the results. Further, the
zonal and meridional winds at 850mb with spatial resolution of 1° X 1° and temporal
resolution of 24 hours from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
(ERA-INTERIM, Dee et al., 2011) is used to explore the dynamical features of the
equatorial waves that contribute to the development of heat waves. OLR data is used as a
proxy to identify the deep convection over the global tropics (Wheeler et al. 1999). The
daily interpolated mean outgoing longwave radiation data from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Polar orbiting satellite starting from January 1979
to December 2013 with spatial resolution 2.5° X 2.5° is used for quantification of wave

10
activity (Liebmann and Smith 1996). In the next section the detail analysis of filtering of
different tropical signals from OLR using the wavenumber and frequency of different
waves and Intraseasonal oscillation are presented.

2.2 Methodology

2.2.1 Equatorial wave Filtering

The space-time spectral analysis is proved to be useful for the study of zonally
propagating waves (Wheeler et al. 1999, 2002; Roundy and Frank 2004) and hence this
method is utilized in this study to quantify equatorial waves and MJO. MRG and tropical
depressions are considered together in most of the previous studies and same is followed
here as they have overlapping wavenumbers and frequencies and can transform from one
mode to another (Frank and Roundy 2006; Kiladis et al. 2009). The wavenumber-
frequency filtering of OLR is done to retrieve wave. The Convectively coupled equatorial
waves which are considered in these study are Kelvin wave, Equatorial Rossby (ER),
mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) and Tropical depressions (together considered as MT), and
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The technique of filtering is to decompose the data
field dependent on time and longitude into wavenumber and frequency components for
eastward and westward propagating waves as used by other studies (Roundy and Frank
2004; Frank and Roundy 2006). In this method, the OLR data are filtered for each wave
according to their wavenumber and frequency as shown in figure 2.1 and running
variance is calculated to represent the intensity of the wave. The Fast Fourier Transport
(FFT) is used for this purpose. For Madden Julian Oscillation which is eastward
propagating oscillation, the filtering wavenumber limit is 1 to 5 and time period 30 - 60
days with running windows of 90 days is considered. For the equatorial Rossby wave, the
wavenumber is considered from -10 to -1 and 10 to 50 days as a time period with a
moving window of 30 days. The 6 to 15 wave number and time period of 6 to 7 days for
H value of 12 to 50m with window of 10 days are considered for Kelvin wave. Similarly,
for Mixed Rossby Gravity and Tropical Depressions, the time period of 3 to 8 days and
wavenumber –14 to 0 is considered with running window length of 6 days. Lengths of the
running window are define so as to contain at least one complete cycle of the wave. The

11
wave is classified as active and inactive on a given day based on the variance cut off. If
the variance is greater than mean variance over the grid point, the wave is considered
active on that day at that grid point, otherwise inactive. Further, the active wave is
segregated into dry phase and wet phase. The dry (wet) phase of the active wave is
defined as the OLR anomaly grater (less) then 0.5 standard deviations above (below) the
mean OLR at a grid on that day. Using this criterion, for a given day the wave activity is
divided into one of three categories, inactive, dry and wet phase. In the present study, dry
and wet phase days are considered to understand the wave modulation of extreme events.

Figure 2.1. Normalized wavenumber–frequency spectrum of OLR. Spectral bands of the

four filters used for filtering are indicated by the heavy solid lines (adapted from Frank
and Roundy 2006).

2.2.2 Extreme Temperature Indices

There are many definitions of heat wave given by different sources, but in general
heat wave is defined as the spells of exclusively hot weather where temperature is above
normal for continuous days. In this study, we have used the percentile-based criteria for
defining extremes as recommended by the WMO/CLIVAR ETCCDI (available from
http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca /ETCCDI, Panda et al. 2014). The 90th percentile temperature is

12
used as threshold to define extremes, and days with temperature above this value as an
extreme day and the temperature above this value is called extreme temperature. Monthly
distribution of the percentage of extreme days averaged over the country is given in figure
2.2.b. It is seen that the extremes mostly occur during April, May, and June. Hence, we
have chosen these three months as the heat wave season in our study. The spatial
distribution of 90th percentile extreme temperature for A-M-J are shown in figure 2.3. The
most regions of central, northwest and southeast India have the 90th percentile extreme
value above 40°C. The top 10% extreme temperature in the hilly region are between 30°C
to 35°C and coastal areas have extreme temperature values between 35°C to 40°C.

Figure 2.2. a) The average maximum temperature distribution over India during AMJ
months in degree Celsius. b) Monthly distribution of percentage of days above 90th
percentile temperature.

The spatial distribution of the average maximum temperature across India is shown in
figure 2.2 a). The Northwest, North, Central India and Southeast India which has most of
the plane area face higher maximum temperature around 40 °C every year and also most
of the heat wave are observed in this area. India Meteorology Department (IMD) uses
absolute threshold based criteria for defining the heat waves for plains as days when the
maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40 °C or more (Pai et al. 2004,
Bhadram et al. 2005). However large scale effects are mostly felt over and above the
existing background regional weather and most studies use percentile based criteria to

13
define extremes for dynamical understanding (Panda et al. 2015). As the effect of large
scale events on regional weather is more complex in complex terrains in this study we use
both percentile cut off (90th percentile) as well as the IMD’s cut off for plain areas to
eliminate high altitude terrains from the study domain, limiting our study to the region
where 90th percentile temperature is at least 40°C.

Figure 2.3. The 90th percentile temperature distribution over India.

14
 Chapter 3

3. Climatology of Heat Waves

3.1 Modulation of Frequency of Occurrence of Heat Waves

To quantify the effect of tropical oscillations on heat wave occurrence, the

probability of heat wave events during different phases of waves are computed as the
ratio of extreme heat days during that phase to the total number of days in that phase.
Spatial distributions of the percentage of heat wave days during a different phase of
waves are shown in figure 3.1. The percentage change in the frequency of heat events is
calculated by subtracting the climatological heat wave probability from the probability of
the events during a particular phase of the wave. [P(wave) - P(climatology)]/
P(climatology)* 100]. Here P(wave) is the probability of heat event occurrence during
wave phase and P(climatology) is the total frequency of occurrence of extreme events.
This shows the modulation of extreme events because of presence of a wave phase. For
example, if the value is 100%, it means that the probability of extreme event is increased
to double the value of climatology. The regions where the change in probability from
climatology is significant at 95% confidence is denoted by black dots. It is clear from
figure 3.1 that the frequency of heat waves is significantly modulated by the presence of
waves. Significant modulations are mostly visible in case of ER and MJO waves. The
frequency of heat events is increased during the dry phase of ER and MJO and decrease
during the wet phase. ER dry phase results in highest increase in heat wave frequency
over the whole region of the study with almost 100 percent increase from that of
climatology (doubled probability compared to climatology) at some grid points.
Similarly, the wet phase of ER reduces the frequency of heat events significantly over
most of the regions. The large variation in the frequency of heat events can be seen in

15
eastern states of India during the propagation of dry and wet phase of MJO. During the
MJO dry phase the eastern states of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and northern Tamil Nadu
experience an increased frequency of heat wave events while the north and northwestern
states (Haryana and Rajasthan) experience reduced frequency of heat waves. In case of a
wet phase of MJO the same regions of southeastern India experience a significant
decrease in heat events.

Surprisingly, the presence of Kelvin and MT waves mostly decrease the frequency
irrespective of the phase. However, the changes in the frequency are very small compared
to ER and MJO. The Kelvin wet phase gives an increase in heat events in some parts of
Gujarat and central India while its dry phase reduces the frequency in most of the regions.
The presence of the MT wave reduces the frequency of heat events by 10 to 20 percent
compared to climatology in both the phases of the wave.

16
Figure 3.1. Difference in percentage of probability of heat wave events from climatology
different phases of ER, MJO, Kelvin and MT from climatology. The grids with 95%
confidence are shown by ‘dots’ and negative region is shown by black contour.

17
Figure 3.2. The average change in percentage of heat waves event during different phases
of the wave compared to climatology.

The average effect of these waves over the whole study region is shown in figure
3.2. As we can see in the figure 3.2, ER wave has the largest impact on the frequency of
heat wave events. The average percentage of extreme events increases by about 60
percent compared to climatology during the ER dry phase and reduces by about 45
percent during the wet phase. The spatial average effect of MJO and Kelvin waves are not
much as there is a mixed signal of increase in heat wave events at some grid points and
decrease in heat wave events at some other grid points in each of the phases. In the case
of MT, both dry and wet phase results in an overall decrease in the frequency of heat
waves occurrence and both phases reduce the heat wave events by about 20 to 30%
percent compared to climatology. From these results, it is concluded that the most impart
oscillation responsible for modulating heat waves over the region is ER and we focus the
further analysis on this particular wave.

18
3.2 Modulation of Duration and Intensity

From the previous section, it is established that averaged over the study region,
Rossby wave plays a prominent role in modulating heat waves. Duration and intensity of
these events are two more important factors that affect normal life. Extended duration
heat-waves are more damaging to agriculture while high intense (high temperature) is
more dangerous to daily life. The effect of ER waves on these two aspects of the extreme
heat events is further explored in this section. Duration of the heat wave is calculated as
the consecutive number of days with temperature above the threshold over a grid point.
Percentage histogram of different duration heat waves [Number of heat wave events in
different duration category divided by a total number of heat wave events] during ER dry
phase is compared with that of the climatological histogram in figure 3.3. The figure
shows that the percent of short duration heat waves (one or two day isolated events)
during ER dry phase are lesser than climatology while the percent contribution from
longer duration events i.e. three and more increases with respect to climatology. The
longer duration of heat wave events during ER dry phase is due to a higher time period of
ER which leads to prolonged dry conditions, thus supporting the evolution of longer
duration of heat wave events.

The percentage of events occurring with different temperatures are compared

between climatology and ER dry phase in figure 3.5. It can be seen from the figure that
the events with lower temperature ranges are lower in case of ER dry phase compared to
climatology whereas the events with higher temperature increase with the presence of ER
dry phase compared to climatology. The three data set of maximum temperature from
IMD, ERA-Interim, and MERRA-2 from Giovanni is also used to validate the result
(figure 3.4 & 3.6). All the three data sets give similar results with ER dry phase leading to
higher duration heat waves with higher temperatures.

19
Figure 3.3. Percentage histogram distribution of number of heat wave events with
different durations.

Figure 3.4. Percentage of heat wave events with 1-2 days duration and 3-10 days duration
corresponding to climatology and ER-dry phase, from different data sets a) IMD data set
(1979 - 2013). b) ERA- Interim reanalysis data set (1979 – 2013). C) MERRA-2 data set
(1980 – 2013).
20
Figure 3.5. Percentage histogram distribution of number heat waves with different
intensities for climatology and ER-dry phase.

Figure 3.6. Percentage of heat wave events with temperatures between 40-43°C and 44-
47°C using three different data sources. a) IMD data set (1979 - 2013). b) ERA- Interim
reanalysis data (1979 – 2013). C) MERRA-2 data set (1980 – 2013).

21
Figure 3.7. Composite anomalies of OLR (shaded) and 850hpa wind during heat wave
events corresponding to dry phase of a) ER, b) MJO, c) Kelvin, d) MT.

3.3 Dynamics of equatorial waves during Heat Wave

To understand the dynamical modulation of background atmospheric conditions

by these propagating waves, the composite of OLR and wind at 850hpa during the dry
phase of the waves are plotted in figure 3.7. The composites are calculated by first finding
the all the dates correspond to the heat wave event at each grid point during the dry phase
of different waves and then averaging the wave filtered anomalies corresponds to these
dates. Although the dates are different over different grid points, as the waves are large
scale, it is assumed that average over all these days will give representative composites
over the domain of study. The figure 3.7 shows that the dry phase of waves is mainly
associated with positive OLR anomalies. OLR anomalies corresponding to the Kelvin and
MT waves is very small. MJO has the highest positive OLR anomalies mostly centered at
the south of India. The positive OLR anomalies of ER are less than that of MJO, but
peaks over northern and central India. During the dry phase, the 850hpa wind is mostly
northwesterly over most of the Indian region. The winds flowing from west central Asia

22
are warm and dry which increase the probability of heat waves. The magnitude of
northerly wind is higher during Rossby dry period which brings in more hot and dry wind
towards the north and central India, which, along with positive OLR anomalies leads to
higher heat waves events during Rossby dry periods. But in case of MJO, these
northerlies are lesser in magnitude and the winds over southern peninsula where OLR
anomaly peaks are mostly easterly, bringing in moist and cooler air and thus
counteracting the effect of OLR anomalies.

23
 Chapter 4

4. Trends in Heat Waves

In changing global climate scenario, it is shown that the intensities and behaviour
of these tropical oscillation undergo long term changes. For example, it is shown that the
intensity of MJO precipitation is increasing while the wind modulation is decreasing
during the past few decades. For this reason, time evolution of this wave-heat wave
interactions are further explored.

4.1 Yearly Trends in Heat Wave

The trends in heat waves are analyzed by evaluating the percentage occurrence of
heat wave in each year during the dry phase of different waves. The figure 4.1 shows the
time series of heat wave probability (in percentage) for each year during the presence of
dry phase of equatorial waves and MJO. The trend is computes as ratio of the sum of heat
waves events at each grid points over whole area of study during the presence of different
waves dry phase in each year to the sum of total climatology heat wave events at each
grid points over entire study region during that year. This represents the percentage
contribution towards the heat waves by each of the tropical waves. It is seen from the
figure 4.1 that the MJO, Kelvin, MT wave dry phase shows the increasing trend in heat
wave percentage. The highest increase in heat wave percentage is shown by kelvin wave
dry phase 4.4 percent increase per decade. The MJO trend shows the increase of 3.0
percent per decade and MT wave the 1.7 percent increase in heat waves per decades but
the ER dry phase have negative trend and there is decrease of heat wave frequency of
0.62 percent per decade. Among these waves, MJO has highest periodicity with dry phase

24
lasting for more than 15 days followed by ER and hence these two have higher potential
to evolve into more serious heat wave conditions. Hence the variations of heat wave
properties due to presence of these two waves is further explored.

Figure 4.1. Trend in heat wave percentage during the presence of dry phase of different
waves. a) ER, b) MJO, c) Kelvin, d) MT

25
Figure 4.2. Percent of heat wave events corresponding to different durations for
Climatology, ER dry phase and MJO dry phase over the time period of 1997 to 1996
(epoch1) and 1997 to 2013 (epoch2).

4.2 Modulation of Duration and Intensity in two different epochs

To understand the role of climate variability in modulating the heat wave due to
equatorial waves and MJO the analyses of heat wave duration, intensity and probability of
occurrence is computed for two different epochs (1979 to 1996, and 1997 to 2013). To
study the change in heat wave duration, the percentage of heat waves in two different
epochs for climatology, ER dry phase, and MJO dry phase is computed and compared.
For this purpose the number of heat wave in each duration (one day duration, two day
duration, three day duration, etc.) is found out and further to calculate the percentage of
occurrence, the number of heat wave of each duration is divided with sum of heat wave of
all duration, than finally the durations are converted into three category to better
understand the overall impact of climate change. The 1 to 3 duration heat wave are

26
consider as short duration, the medium duration is consider for continuous 4 to 6 days
heat wave event and finally the long duration heat wave are the one which have time
period of 7 days and above are consider. For all the three sources of heat wave, ER dry
phase, MJO dry phase and Climatology the higher percentage of occurrence of heat wave
are of short duration category. When compare between the sources of heat wave the
percentage of short duration heat waves are higher in case of climatology and the medium
and long duration heat waves percentage is higher during ER and MJO wave dry phase.
In recent year the long duration and medium duration heat waves percentage are reducing
during ER dry phase and increase in short duration heat wave percentage is observed. In
case of MJO we can see there is increase of long duration heat wave percentage from 20
percent in epoch1 to 30 percent in epoch2 and there is decrease in heat waves of short and
medium duration in recent years, indicating the occurrence of more heat waves of longer
duration during MJO dry phase in recent. The Kelvin wave also shown the increase in the
heat waves of shorter duration in recent years.

The figure 4.3 shows percentage of occurrence of heat waves of different

intensity, climatologically, and during ER dry phase and MJO dry phase for epoch1 and
epoch2. The higher intensity (44 - 47°C) heat waves have higher percentage during the
dry phase of ER in epoch1 but in recent years there is reduction in higher intensity heat
waves percentage during ER dry phase. Most of heat waves occur at temperature of 43°C
and 44°C. The MJO dry phase gives results opposite of ER dry phase that is the higher
intensity heat waves percent are increasing during MJO dry phase in recent years and
lower intensity heat waves are reducing. In epoch2 it has been observed that the ER wave
and climatology shows increasing percentage of lower intensity temperature but there is
decrease in lower intensity temperature during MJO dry phase. In both the epoch still
there is higher occurrence percentage of lower intensity temperature extremes then higher
intensity in all three cases.

27
4.3 Modulation of Heat wave probability by waves in different time period.

Spatial distribution of the probability of occurrence of heat waves for two

different epoch from 1979 to 1996 and 1997 to 2013 are computed during the presence of
different phases of convectively coupled equatorial waves and MJO to know the variation
in heat waves from epoch1 to epch2 as shown in figure 4.4 & 4.5. The percentage
frequency of heat events is found by subtracting probability of heat events at each grid
points during the different phases of wave from the climatology of heat events and then
dividing by climatology for normalization similar to figure 3.1 of chapter 3. The
percentage of occurrence of heat waves during the dry phase of ER are higher in epoch1
than epoch2, and 100 percent increase in heat waves than climatology are found at central
India and some region of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Bihar. But in epoch 2 there is a
relative reduction in heat waves probability during ER dry phase and most of reduction
occur at central India. Western and Eastern parts of India show no significant change in
heat waves compared to climatology in epoch2.

Figure 4.3. Percentage of heat wave events with intensities between 40 - 43°C (Low
intensity) and 44 - 47°C (High intensity) for different time period 1979 to 1996 and 1997
to 2013.

28
Figure 4.4. Difference in percentage of probability of heat wave events of different
phases of ER, MJO, Kelvin and MT from climatology for period of 1979 to 1996. ‘Dot’
shows the 95 percent significant level.

29
Figure 4.5. Same as figure 4 but time period of 1997 to 2013.

30
When the heat wave percentage during the wet phase of ER are compared in both the
epochs, it is seen that there is a decrease in heat wave probability during epoch2
compared to epoch1. From the comparison we can conclude that the ER wave dominance
of higher percentage of heat waves are reducing in recent years.

During the MJO wave dry phase the frequency of occurrence of heat wave events
are higher in states of southeast India mainly in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu and
there is significant decrease in heat waves in North, Northwest states of India in epoch1
but in epoch2 the frequency of heat waves is higher than epoch1 in south east and eastern
states of India and maximum heat wave frequency reaches 100 percent and above in some
region of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. There is no significant decrease in heat wave
frequency during the dry phase of MJO over study region in epoch2. There is significant
reduction in heat waves occurrence percentage are observed during the wet phase of MJO
than climatology in recent years (1997 – 2013) compare to past years (1979 – 1996).
During the epoch1 there is both increase and decrease in percentage of heat wave
frequency during propagation of dry and wet phase of MJO but in recent years during
MJO dry phase there is increase in heat waves frequency and during the MJO wet phase
there is significant decrease in heat wave frequency over the study region.

The Kelvin wave shows the major changes in the frequency of heat wave
occurrences between the two epochs. In the epoch1 propagation of both dry and wet
phase of Kelvin wave leads to decrease in heat wave frequency but in recent years (1997
– 2013) there is change in heat wave frequency from negative significant in epoch1 to
positively significant. The most increase in percentage of heat waves are in eastern states
of India during the Kelvin dry phase and in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh during the wet
phase of Kelvin in epoch2. The MT wave does not have significant impact on the
increasing the frequency of heat wave in epoch1 and epoch2 and its decreases the heat
wave frequency compared to climatology in both epoch during the presence of both dry
and wet phase. In epoch2 there is increase in heat waves percentage from negative to
positive in Northeastern states of India during MT dry phase but it’s still does not have

31
significant increase than climatology. However, its effect on reducing the heatwave
occurrence during wet phase has increased considerably during the recent years.

Figure 4.6. Overall change in percentage of heat waves probability during different
phases of tropical waves for time period from 1979 – 1996.

Figure 4.7. Same as figure 4.6. But for time period of 1997 – 2013.

32
Figure 4.8. Composite of anomalies of OLR (shaded) and 850hpa wind during heat wave
events in two different epochs (left [1979 to 1996] & right [1997 to 2013] corresponding
to dry phase of a) ER, b) MJO, c) Kelvin, d) MT. The contours are shown for negative
OLR

33
 To further understand the overall influence of waves in modulating the heat wave
in two epoch the average percent change in probability of heat wave events for whole
study region is plotted in figure 4.6 & 4.7. The difference between the heat wave
probability due to different waves and total probability of heat wave during AMJ is found
out at each grid point and it is normalized with total heat wave probability and finally to
reckon overall change it is average over all grid points of study region, similar to figure 6
of chapter 3. During first half of time period (1979 – 1996) the ER wave has large
influence on modulating the heat wave frequency. During the dry phase of ER there is
increase of heat wave frequency about 80 percent than climatology average over whole
area of study also the wet phase of ER reduce the heat wave frequency about 40 percent
when averaged over whole area of study. The MJO, Kelvin and MT wave reduce heat
wave frequency over all when they propagate over Indian region in epoch1. In epoch2
during the presence of MJO, Kelvin wave dry phase there is increase in overall heat wave
frequency. In epoch2 the percentage increase in heat wave frequency during the ER wave
dry phase has been observed to be below 40 percent, which is almost half the observed
values during epoch1. The overall heat wave percentage during the MJO wave in epoch 1
shows reductions in heat wave than climatology but in recent years the percentage
becomes positive. In epoch2 during the presence of kelvin wave dry phase the overall
percentage of heat wave have increased up to 18 percent. The MT wave reduce the
overall percentage of heat wave in both the epoch.

4.4 Dynamics of Waves in two different Epochs

To understand the variability in wave dynamics in different epoch for different

tropical waves, the wave filtered OLR anomalies and 850mb winds are considered. The
composite anomalies of OLR and 850hpa wind for two different epoch are constructed by
taking the union of heat wave days during dry phase of different waves similar to figure
3.7 for chapter 3. It is clear from the figure 4.8 that there is reduction in OLR intensity in
epoch 2 for ER dry days and also there is reduction of wind magnitude with reduced
warm and dry air intrusion into the Indian region from north and northwest which results

34
in decrease in heat waves frequency in recent years. While in epoch1 during the ER dry
phase the both the OLR anomalies and north westerly wind anomalies are higher resulting
in higher frequency of heat waves. This reduction in dry OLR anomalies in recent years
(1997 – 2013) leads to reduction in higher intensity heat wave in epoch 2 as OLR is proxy
for temperature and also there is reduction in long duration heat wave in epoch2. During
the MJO dry phase the dry OLR have increase in epoch2 than epoch1 which cause
increase of heat waves in epoch 2. Also due to higher time period of MJO (30 to 60 days)
the heat waves gets more time to evolve during the dry phase with higher OLR intensity
which increases the frequency of long lasting and intense heat waves in recent years. The
heat waves are increased significantly during the dry phase of kelvin in epoch 2 in eastern
states of India which is direct result of increase in hot and dry wind from northwest. But,
since the time period of kelvin wave is small 6 to 7 days it’s mainly results in small
duration and lower Intensity heat wave. The low OLR values during the MT wave and
moist wind reduce the heat waves probability than climatology.

35
 Chapter 5

5. Conclusion

The role of tropical Intraseasonal oscillation and convectively coupled equatorial

waves on extreme heat events during the months of April to June over India are
investigated. The modulation of heat wave frequency during the dry and wet phases of
ER, MJO, Kelvin and MT waves are explored. It is shown that the frequency of the events
increase over whole region of study during ER dry phase and certain region of northeast
India and north India face almost the doubling of heat wave frequency compared to the
climatology. During the wet phase of ER, whole of the study region shows a decrease in
heat waves with frequency reduced to half the climatological scenario at certain parts of
the western India. The MJO dry phase is shown to increase the heat wave frequency over
eastern and south Indian region and have decrease the frequency over central and northern
India. The effect of Kelvin and MT waves on heat wave frequency is less compared to ER
and MJO. Averaged over the study region, ER wave shows higher modulation in
frequency of heat wave occurrence depending on phase and MT shows decreased
frequency during both the phases. Modulation of duration and intensity by ER is further
explored. The results show that the presence of ER dry phase leads to more severe and
more prolonged heat wave events compared to climatology. From the composites of
winds and OLR, it is shown that the modulation of background convection and winds by
the waves play a major role in intensifying or suppressing the heat waves. The result
shows the higher positive OLR anomalies during dry phase and hot and dry winds from
central Asia contribute to increased heat waves during ER dry phase.

The trends in heat waves during the presence of different convectively coupled
equatorial waves and MJO are studied. The Kelvin, MJO, MT dry phase shows the
increasing trends of heat waves occurrence. The ER dry phase shows decreasing trend in
heat wave frequency but decrease is very slow 0.62 percent per decade. There is

36
significant increase in heat wave frequency during the dry phase of Kelvin and MJO from
1997 to 2013. The percentage of higher duration of heat waves during MJO dry phase are
increase in epoch2 (1997 to 2013) than compare to epoch1 (1979 to 1996). In the recent
years during the ER dry phase there is decrease in percentage of longer duration heat
waves observed and increase in percentage of short duration heat waves. The percentage
of higher intensity heat waves (44 to 47 °C) was higher than climatology in epoch1
during ER dry phase but in recent year’s higher temperature percentage are decreasing. In
recent years the frequency of heat waves during Kelvin and MJO dry phase significantly
increased compare to past years. The maximum increase of 100% in heat waves than
climatology occur at some regions of south eastern states of India during the MJO dry
phase. When heat waves frequency during different waves are averaged over whole
region of study the Kelvin and ER waves shows large variation when comparison
between epoch1 and epoch2 are made. The overall heat wave frequency are
approximately reduce to half in recent years than that of the past during the dry phase of
ER. The increase in frequency of heat waves during the dry phase of Kelvin and MJO is
due to increase in the intensity of these waves in recent years with increase of hot and dry
wind intrusion during the dry phase of Kelvin. Also increase in mean surface temperature
due to anthropogenic activities with increase in intensity of filtered waves provide more
suitable condition for heat waves in recent years for MJO and Kelvin wave. The decrease
in OLR intensity and reduced wind speed in recent years during ER dry phase reduce the
frequency of heat waves. The further detailed study need to be done to understand the
exact cause of decrease in heat waves frequency during the ER dry phase. To get a clear
picture of modulation of heat wave frequency, intensity and duration by tropical waves
and Intraseasonal variations with climate change the high resolution wave data should be
used and the temporal resolution including the present year need to investigated.

37
Publications

Journal:

Tukaram Zore, Kiranmayi Landu (2019), Partha Pratim Gogoi and Vinoj Velu Effect of
Tropical Subseasonal Variability on Pre-monsoon Heat Waves over India. (To be
submitted)

Tukaram Zore, Kiranmayi Landu (2019), Long-term changes in the effect of tropical
intraseasonal oscillations on heat waves over India (Manuscript in preparation)

Conference:

Zore Tukaram, Partha Pratim Gogoi, V.Vinoj, K.Landu. Effect of convectively coupled
equatorial waves on daytime temperature distribution over India. National
Symposium TROPMET 2018, Organised by Indian Meteorological Society on
“Understanding Weather and Climate Variability: Research for Society”, Banaras, India,
October 2018.

38
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