Assignment 04 Specifications

Last update - 2019-11-25 03:58Z

Due: Specified on the Canvas assignment page. Late submissions will automatically be
marked as late and NOT GRADED. Please make sure you submit your assignment far in
advance of the stated deadline, so that you avoid losing credit due to bad networks, etc. It is
recommended that you start early and if you have questions, ask them in the course Canvas
Discussion forum. If you wait until the last minute to ask questions, it’s very likely that nobody
will answer you in time. It is also recommended that you turn in something, even if it’s not
complete. Even if you weren’t able to complete the assignment, taking the time to explain what
you tried and what problems you faced will likely prevent you from getting a zero.
Grading: Grading is somewhat subjective in this assignment, on a scale of 0 to 10, roughly
equivalent to a standard grading scale where 10 would be an A+ (Excellent), 9 would be a B+/A-
(Good), 8 would be a C+/B- (Fair), etc. In this particular assignment, if you do all that is asked
of you, you should receive a 10. If you neglect, or poorly explain one or more minor items, you
should receive a 9, and so on.
The goals of this assignment are to

 Gain practical experience working with models of coupled variables described by

systems of difference equations
 Gain experience in implementation of coupled systems using Insight Maker
 Understand the relationship between the use of difference equations as promoted in
your textbook and basic differential equations and numerical methods, and how this all
applies to Insight Maker
 Gain a simple exposure to sensitivity testing

The deliverable that you should plan on submitting is a PDF formatted professional report.

Overview
This assignment is my own variation of Example 3 from Section 1.4 of your Giordano
textbook, Competitive Hunter Model - Spotted Owls and Hawks
Before you get started, I recommend that you go through the example and fully understand it,
and even better, understand how to implement it correctly in Insight Maker. This is not required
(and please, if you do it, do not include it in your report), but I think you will find this assignment
fairly straightforward if you try to replicate the textbook example with Insight Maker first. To help
you out, I am including the stocks and flows diagram of my own successful attempt at replicating
this
Once you understand the example you should be able to set up the model with initial conditions
and parameters to obtain results similar to those in the textbook. If you try the above and you
have problems, please use the Discussion forum to seek some guidance. I may not give you
direct answers, but I will at least try to give you helpful hints, and will be happy to clarify
questions you might have on the above diagram.
Your task in this assignment is to implement a similar model, using Alaska winter birds of Boreal
Owls and Ravens, with different parameters, and explore it in a bit more depth.
Boreal owls make a beautiful sound on those bitter cold mornings when I’m running the dogs at
5am, knowing that sunrise is still six hours away - the woods are completely silent except, now
and then, for the sound of one of these birds - Boreal Owl Sounds
Ravens are amazing, huge black birds that make a lot of noise in the winter. They are very
smart and playful. On my afternoon runs with one of my dogs, Kenai, there are often a couple
of ravens that like to dive down and tease her, getting her to chase them as they fly low to the
ground. I’m actually very good at imitating their calls and bringing them in, but my wife usually
doesn’t appreciate me doing that. Here’s a YouTube of somebody else doing it - If you call
them, they'll come – calling ravens

Competitive Hunter Model - Boreal Owls and

Ravens
Boreal Owls and Ravens are year-long inhabitants of Interior Alaska and are active even when
the temperature is below -40o.
Assume that the populations of Boreal Owls, B, and Ravens, R, of these two species can be
described by a coupled set of differential equations
[Note that all typeset math equations in this document are very large, due to the fact that some
students have stated difficulty in seeing them at normal sizes]

and

or in difference form
and

For the initial parts of this assignment, we will assume the following parameter values, where
units are birds-per-month
k1 = 0.1 birds/month
k2 = 0.35 birds/month
k3 = 0.002 birds/month
k4 = 0.001 birds/month
You should implement an Insight Maker model for this system and be sure to display a
capture of it - WITH YOUR NAME IN IT - as part of your report.

A first test and exploration of your model

As a first test of the model, you should assume that death rates are zero (yes, you will have to
change values of constants that I just gave you above), and derive analytical
solutions B(t) and R(t) for the differential equations given above for each population. Be sure
to show the work of your derivations completely! Then, verify your model against your
analytical solutions. Chances are that you’ll be “sort of” close, but not that close. This should
lead you to think about how Insight Maker is actually computing these solutions. A little bit of
research should lead you to some insight, as well as to the Settings Tab where you can vary the
timestep size and/or the type of solution technique. You should explore both and explain what
you have learned.
Show the plots of both populations and compare the plots at Month 3 between your
derived analytical solution and the model solutions (you can hover over the curve with
your mouse to get these). Clearly explain your results.

A second test, looking for equilibrium values

As a second test, you should derive the equilibrium values for the system described above (use
the nonzero death rates that I originally gave you). This will look much like the derivation in
Example 3 of your textbook. Once you have determined the equilibrium values and, again,
verify them in your model. Be sure to show your complete derivation of the equilibrium
values, as well as the plots, clearly explaining your results.
Note - unlike examples you saw in lecture, these are nonlinear systems. You should not expect
to be able to start with “any” initial conditions and have your solutions converge to the
equilibrium values. As in Example 3, you should start with the equilibrium values as your initial
conditions and verify that they remain at equilibrium.

Sensitivity testing of the model

Finally, you will test the sensitivity of your model to initial conditions and to parameter values.
First, similar to Example 3, run a test of your model using initial conditions that vary slightly from
the equilibrium values. Show the plots and clearly explain the results.
Finally, choose either the birth-rate or death-rate parameters and perform a sensitivity analysis
as illustrated in the last slides from Lecture 5 - System Dynamics with Insight Maker. Assume
normally-distributed random values for the parameters. There is a page in the Insight Maker
Guide that describes sensitivity testing in more detail that may help you. Describe your
parameter settings, show your plot and clearly explain the results.

Summary of what to submit

You should submit, long before the deadline a single PDF-formatted professional report of
your work.
Although you should include the basic components (abstract, introduction, methods,
conclusions, references), the abstract and introduction can be brief (I’ve essentially done it for
you above - no need for you to BS something new), but your methods and conclusions should
be very clear and neat. Remember - just showing me plots and results isn’t enough. You need
to take the time to show me that you understood and knew what you were doing (or explain
where you were confused). As I like to say, help me to help you get a good grade by making it
very clear to me that you knew what you were doing - it’s that simple.
Also, be sure to cite any assistance or significant references used to complete the
assignment. If you’re not sure, cite it just to be safe!