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Carrying Out Significance Tests
Steps for Significance Testing
1) Hypothesis
2) Conditions
3) Calculations
4)Interpretation
Step 1: Hypothesis
• Identify the population of interest and the parameter you
want to draw conclusions about.
• State the hypothesis
• Is the mean of the population equal to, less than, or
greater than a specific value?
Step 2: Conditions
• Choose the appropriate inference procedure
• Population mean or population proportion?
1) SRS
2) Normality
3) Independence
Step 3: Calculations
• If the conditions are met, carry out the inference procedure.
• If conditions aren’t met, make note of the issue and
continue with the problem.
𝑥 − 𝜇0
𝑧= 𝜎
𝑛
• 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0 is 𝑃 𝑍 ≤ 𝑧
• 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0 is 𝑃 𝑍 ≥ 𝑧
• 𝑃 𝑍 ≥ 𝑧 and 𝑃 𝑍 ≤ −𝑧
• P-value = 2𝑃 𝑍 ≥ 1.09 =
•2 1 − 0.8621 = 0.2758
Step 4: Interpretation
• More than 27% of the time, an SRS of size 72 from the general population
would have a mean blood pressure at least as far from 128 as that of the
executive sample.
• The observed 𝑥= 129.93 is therefore not good evidence that middle-aged
male executives’ blood pressures differ from the national average.
• We fail to reject 𝐻0
• This doesn’t mean that the blood pressure for middle aged executives is
128.
• We sought to show that 𝜇 differed from 128 and failed to find convincing
evidence.
Example: Health Promotion Program
• The company medical director from the last example institutes a
health promotion campaign to encourage employees to exercise
more and eat a healthier diet.
• The director chooses a random sample of 50 employees and
compares their blood pressures from physical exams given before
the campaign and again a year later.
• The mean change in systolic blood pressure for these n = 50
employees is 𝑥 = −6. We take the population standard deviation
to be 𝜎 = 20.
• The director decides to use an 𝛼 = 0.05 significance level.
Step 1: Hypothesis
• We want to know if the health campaign reduced blood
pressure on average in the population of all employees at
this large company. Taking 𝜇 to be the mean change in
blood pressure for all employees, we test:
• 𝐻0 : 𝜇=0
• 𝐻𝑎 : 𝜇<0
Step 2: Conditions
• Since 𝜎 is known, we will use a one-sample z test for a population mean.
• SRS: The medical director took a “random sample” of 50 company
employees. We have to assume this was an SRS. If a different method was
used our results may not be appropriate.
• Normality: The large sample size (𝑛 = 50) lets us assume approximate
Normality of the sampling distribution of 𝑥, even if the population
distribution of change in blood pressure isn’t Normal.
• Independence:There must be at least (10)(50) = 500 employees in this
large company since the medical director is sampling without replacement.
Step 3: Calculations
• Test Statistic: One sample z-test
𝑥−𝜇0
• 𝑧= 𝜎
𝑛
−6−0
•𝑧 = 20 = −2.12
50
•𝑧 = −4.99
• This z score is not on our Table A.
The largest negative value on
Table A is −3.49. All we can say from Table A is that 𝑧 ≤ −3.49
• P-value: 2𝑃 𝑍 ≤ −3.49 = 2 1 − 0.9998 = 0.0004
• This is less than the 𝛼 = 0.01, so we can reject 𝐻0 .
Step 4: Interpretation
•Since our P-value is so low, we can reject 𝐻0
•We can conclude that the concentration of the
specimen is not 0.86
Confidence Interval
• Create a 99% confidence interval for 𝜇, the concentration
of the sample.
Step 1: Parameter
• Population: All possible measurements of the specimen.
• Parameter: Mean concentration.
Step 2: Conditions
• SRS: This is not an SRS, so our conclusion may not be
appropriate.
0.8404 ± 0.0101
0.8303, 0.8505
Step 4: Interpretation
• We are 99% confident that the true mean concentration of
the specimen is between 0.8303 and 0.8505.
Connection
• After performing an 𝛼 = 0.01 level significance test, we found that
we could reject 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 0.86
• This led us to the conclusion that the true mean concentration was
not 0.86.
• When we did a 99% confidence interval we determined that we were
99% confident that the true mean concentration was between
0.8303 and 0.8505, which does not include 0.86.
• These 2 procedures are different ways of looking at the same thing.
• This will only work for a two-sided significance test.
Connection (cont.)
• If the 𝐻0
is included in a 1 − 𝛼 confidence interval, then we will fail to
reject 𝐻0 in an 𝛼 level significance test
• If the 𝐻0
is NOT included in a 1 − 𝛼 confidence interval, then we will
reject 𝐻0 in an 𝛼 level significance test