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International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics 130 (2015) S4–S9

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International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics

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DISEASE BURDEN

Estimating disease burden of maternal syphilis and associated adverse


pregnancy outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia in 2012
Xiang-Sheng Chen a,⁎, Sunil Khaparde b, Turlapati L.N. Prasad b, Vani Srinivas c, Chukwuma Anyaike d,
Gbenga Ijaodola d, Evelyn Ngige d, Grace Tembo Mumba e, Carolline Phiri e, Bushimbwa Tambatamba e,
Laxmikant Chavan f, Nicole Seguy f, Taiwo A. Oyelade g, Malumo Sarai Bvulani h, Lori M. Newman i
a
National Center for STD Control and Institute of Dermatology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Nanjing, China
b
National AIDS Control Organization, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, New Delhi, India
c
Jhpiego India Country Office, New Delhi, India
d
National AIDS/STI Control Programme, Federal Ministry of Health, Abuja, Nigeria
e
Ministry of Community Development, Mother and Child Health, Lusaka, Zambia
f
World Health Organization, New Delhi, India
g
World Health Organization, Abuja, Nigeria
h
World Health Organization, Lusaka, Zambia
i
World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: Objective: To estimate maternal syphilis and its associated adverse pregnancy outcomes in India, Nigeria, and
Adverse outcomes Zambia. Methods: An online estimation tool was used to generate point estimates and uncertainty ranges of ma-
Estimation ternal syphilis and adverse pregnancy outcomes due to mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). The most recent
Pregnant women
data (2010–2012) on antenatal care coverage, syphilis seroprevalence, and syphilis screening and treatment
Syphilis
coverage at the subnational level in India, Nigeria, and Zambia were used to estimate disease burden for 2012.
Sensitivity analysis was conducted for three screening and treatment scenarios (current coverages, current
coverages minus 20%, and ideal coverages consistent with WHO targets for eliminating MTCT of syphilis). Results:
A total of 103 960, 74 798, and 9072 pregnant women with probable active syphilis were estimated to occur in
India, Nigeria, and Zambia, resulting in 53 187, 37 045, and 2973 adverse outcomes, respectively; approximately
1.6%, 4.8%, and 37.0% of these were averted under the current service coverages in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. The
disease burden varied significantly in its subnational distribution within India and Nigeria, but was distributed
evenly across Zambia. Conclusions: The obtained results suggest an ongoing, unaverted high burden of maternal
syphilis and associated adverse outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. Screening and treatment for syphilis
must be scaled-up significantly in these countries to achieve elimination of MTCT of syphilis.
© 2015 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Background contributes to syphilis-associated adverse pregnancy outcomes, includ-


ing stillbirth and late fetal loss, neonatal death, premature and low birth
Syphilis remains a major social and public health burden globally de- weight infants, and congenital syphilis [3].
spite its relatively simple prevention and treatment. It is of particular In 2007, the WHO launched the global initiative to eliminate congen-
concern in pregnancy given the risk of mother-to-child transmission ital syphilis [1]. Three regions (Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Africa) have
(MTCT) [1,2], which causes significant perinatal morbidity and mortali- initiated local efforts focusing on the dual elimination of MTCT
ty, particularly in low-resource countries [2]. Untreated maternal (EMTCT) of HIV and syphilis [4–6], thus striving to improve maternal
syphilis can result in a significant reproductive health burden and and child health and contribute to the achievement of Millennium
Development Goals 4, 5, and 6 [7].
Routine reporting and periodic estimation of maternal syphilis and
its associated adverse outcomes facilitate monitoring of disease burden
and assessment of the impact of initiatives at a global or regional level
⁎ Corresponding author at: National Center for STD Control and Institute of Dermatology,
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, 12 Jiangwangmiao
and of EMTCT programs at the national or subnational level. The WHO
Street, Nanjing 210042, China. Tel.: +86 25 8547 8901. recently reported global and regional estimates of the burden of mater-
E-mail address: chenxs@ncstdlc.org (X.-S. Chen). nal syphilis and related adverse outcomes for 2008 [8]. These estimates

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijgo.2015.04.014
0020-7292/© 2015 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
X.-S. Chen et al. / International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics 130 (2015) S4–S9 S5

suggest that, globally, nearly 1.4 million pregnant women are infected death, 0.64 for prematurity/low birth weight, 0.97 for congenital
with probable active syphilis (PAS), accounting for approximately 1% syphilis, and 0.84 for any adverse outcome [10].
of all pregnancies worldwide. Africa and Asia are regions with high An Excel spreadsheet tool (Microsoft, Redmond WA, USA) based on
disease burden, representing 39.3% and 44.3% of the global estimate, the 2008 estimation model was developed by WHO [11]; the estimation
respectively. Nevertheless, despite their use, global and regional esti- was centered upon a health service delivery model involving four esti-
mates may not exemplify the status quo at the national or subnational mation steps [8]. By entering the background data (number of pregnant
level, which may be more useful for programmatic purposes. women, seroprevalence of syphilis, and antenatal care (ANC), syphilis
In 2013, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, along with WHO and screening, and treatment coverage rates) at subnational level and the
PATH, selected India, Nigeria, and Zambia to participate in the Dual Test- corresponding assumptions described above (namely, probability to de-
ing to Eliminate Congenital Syphilis (DTECS) project, which explores the velop adverse outcomes without effective interventions and probability
feasibility of achieving the EMTCT of syphilis within existing prevention to avert these with effective treatment), the spreadsheet automatically
of MTCT of HIV programs. As part of the DTECS project, the present generated estimates of the number of pregnant women with PAS
study estimates subnational and national disease burdens of maternal infection who did or did not attend ANC, as well as the incidence of
syphilis and related adverse outcomes based on the available national each syphilis-related adverse pregnancy outcome. The national
data sources for 2012 in India, Nigeria, and Zambia. estimate was calculated as a sum of the subnational estimates. An
approximate uncertainty at subnational level for the estimate of preg-
nant women with PAS was calculated using the delta method and a
2. Material and methods
5% relative error for seroprevalence of syphilis, the number of pregnan-
cies, and the correction factor for the estimated proportion of women
2.1. Estimation process
with PAS. The subnational uncertainties were summed to obtain the
national uncertainty.
Estimation in each country was conducted through consultative pro-
The estimation covered all subnational regions in each of the three
cesses involving key stakeholders, including the National AIDS Control
countries. Based on data available at subnational level, subnational esti-
Organization under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in
mations were conducted in 35 units at state level (Andhra Pradesh,
India, the National AIDS/STI Control Program of the Federal Ministry of
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Gujarat, Haryana,
Health in Nigeria, and the Ministry of Community Development,
Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala,
Mother, and Child Health and the Ministry of Health in Zambia.
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland,
Presentation of the estimation methods, including the data needed
Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh,
and the assumptions proposed, was provided by an expert from WHO,
Uttarakhand, and West Bengal) or union territory level (Andaman and
followed by an intensive discussion to explore available data from dif-
Nicobar, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu, Lakshad-
ferent sources among national program managers and WHO country
weep, National Capital, and Puducherry) in India, six subnational units
officers in each of the three countries. Consensus on the data and as-
at regional level (North Central, consisting of Benue, Federal Capital
sumptions used for estimation was agreed prior to each estimation
Territory, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau; North East,
exercise. Draft estimates were reviewed by key stakeholders, who pro-
consisting of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe;
vided comments and any necessary improvements before finalization of
North West, consisting of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto,
the estimates.
and Zamfara; South East, consisting of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu,
and Imo; South South, consisting of Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River,
2.2. Estimation model and tool Delta, Edo, and Rivers; and South West, consisting of Ekiti, Lagos,
Ogun, Ondo, Osun, and Oyo) in Nigeria, and 10 subnational units at
A health service delivery model involving calculation of the number province level (Central, Copperbelt, Eastern, Lusaka, Luapula, Muchinga,
of pregnant women with PAS infection and the number of adverse preg- Northern, North Western, Southern, and Western) in Zambia.
nancy outcomes associated with syphilis was developed by WHO and
reviewed and approved by the Child Health Epidemiology Reference 2.3. Data sources
Group. Details of the model have been reported elsewhere [8]. In this
model, PAS infection was defined as seropositivity on both treponemal 2.3.1. Number of pregnant women
and non-treponemal tests. Adverse pregnancy outcomes included still- The estimated number of pregnancies in India was obtained primar-
birth/early fetal death, neonatal death, prematurity/low birth weight, ily from the National Health Management Information System (HMIS)
and congenital syphilis. Stillbirth was defined as death of a fetus of [12]. Since a functional system to register either pregnancies or live
at least 28 weeks of gestation or at least 1000 g weight, and early births is not available at primary health care centers in Nigeria or
fetal death as fetal death occurring from 22 − 28 weeks of gestation Zambia, the number of pregnant women was calculated according to
(i.e. second and early third trimester) [9]. local practice and estimated as 5% of the projected 2012 population
The number of women with PAS infection was calculated as the size based on 2006 census data for Nigeria and 5.2% of the most recent
product of the number of pregnant women and prevalence of seropos- census population size for Zambia [13].
itive women with both treponemal and non-treponemal syphilis test
positivity. A correction factor was used to adjust the prevalence if only 2.3.2. Syphilis seroprevalence
one test type was used to determine seropositivity. The number of ad- Syphilis seroprevalence was calculated by dividing the total number
verse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with PAS infection was of pregnant women seropositive for syphilis by the total number of
calculated as the product of the number of infected pregnant women pregnant women screened. Prevalence data were obtained from the
and the probability of those women having a syphilis-related adverse HIV Sentinel Surveillance System in India, the General Antenatal
outcome without treatment. Register (GAR) in Nigeria, and the HMIS in Zambia.
The probabilities of syphilis-related adverse outcomes occurring Non-treponemal tests (venereal disease research laboratory test
without effective treatment were 0.21 for stillbirth/early fetal death, [VDRL] or rapid plasma reagin [RPR]) were recommended by the
0.09 for neonatal death, 0.06 for prematurity/low birth weight, 0.16 national guidelines and used in sentinel surveillance programs in India
for congenital syphilis, and 0.52 for any adverse outcome [3]. The effec- [14]. VDRL tests were used in ANC services in Nigeria to identify and
tiveness of screening and treatment with penicillin in averting adverse report seropositivity for syphilis [15], while treponemal tests, including
outcomes was 0.82 for stillbirth/early fetal death, 0.80 for neonatal rapid syphilis tests, were applied in Zambia. Based on the correction
S6 X.-S. Chen et al. / International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics 130 (2015) S4–S9

factors used for the 2008 estimation [16], a study in India [17], and con- 3. Results
sultation with local program managers, a value of 71% was used as the
correction factor to estimate the proportion of seropositive women The background data estimating disease burden of maternal syphilis
with both treponemal and non-treponemal syphilis test positivity in India, Nigeria, and Zambia is shown in Table 1. India had the highest
(PAS infection) for India and a value of 65% for Nigeria and Zambia. number of pregnant women, followed by Nigeria and Zambia. In
contrast, a higher syphilis seroprevalence was recorded in Zambia
compared with Nigeria or India. It was estimated that, in 2012, the num-
2.3.3. ANC coverage ber of pregnant women with PAS infections was 103 960 in India, 74
Data on the proportion of pregnant women attending at least one 798 in Nigeria, and 9072 in Zambia. Of these women, 92.3%, 77.9%,
ANC visit during pregnancy came primarily from the HMIS 2010–2011 and 90.6% attended at least one ANC visit in each country, respectively.
for India, the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey in 2008 for Nevertheless, the proportion of women attending ANC and screened for
Nigeria, and the HMIS 2012 for Zambia. syphilis in all three countries was lower than 50%, particularly in India
(5.0%). Moreover, the proportion of pregnant women who were
2.3.4. Screening and treatment coverage screened and treated was only 2.3% in India and 4.4% in Nigeria.
Data of pregnant women screened for syphilis routinely collected In Zambia, almost half (42.7%) of pregnant women were screened
through the HMIS in India, the GAR in Nigeria, and the HMIS in and treated.
Zambia was used for the estimation. In Nigeria, data on treatment The estimated number of syphilis-related adverse outcomes was 53
coverage was derived from the aggregated statistics from the GAR 187 in India, 37 045 in Nigeria, and 2973 in Zambia. In the estimation
reporting system at subnational (district) level. A consultative process scenario based on the current service coverage, approximately 872
among stakeholders was used to propose a treatment coverage of 50% (1.6%), 1850 (4.8%), and 1745 (37.0%) of all adverse outcomes due
for all states in India and 100% for all provinces in Zambia. to maternal syphilis were averted in India, Nigeria, and Zambia,
respectively. The specific outcomes averted by the current syphilis
screening and treatment coverage, the current coverage minus 20%,
2.4. Sensitivity analysis and the WHO-proposed coverage for EMTCT of syphilis are summarized
in Table 2. Decreasing the current coverage by 20% resulted in an esti-
Based on the estimates of maternal syphilis for 2012, three screening mated increase of adverse outcomes of 0.4% to 0.6% in India and 1.4%
and treatment coverage scenarios, including current coverage, current to 2.1% in Nigeria, but this increase was much higher in Zambia (14.1%
coverage minus 20%, and coverage to meet the WHO-proposed targets to 26.8%). In contrast, if WHO coverage targets were to be achieved, a
for EMTCT of syphilis (i.e. 95% of pregnant women screened for syphilis significant decrease in adverse outcomes would be observed in all
and 95% of syphilis-positive pregnant women treated for syphilis), were three countries, and particularly India (Table 2).
used as the current, worse, and best case scenarios to calculate the esti- Subnational disease burden distribution varied greatly within
mate of adverse pregnancy outcomes. The number of adverse pregnan- India and Nigeria. The number of women with PAS infection in four
cy outcomes averted by screening and treatment coverage was states (Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh)
calculated by subtracting the number of adverse outcomes in the cur- accounted for 76.1% of the national total of disease burden in India
rent, worse, or best case scenarios from a baseline number of adverse (Fig. 1a). In Nigeria, the subnational burden of maternal syphilis infec-
outcomes estimated in the absence of any screening and treatment. tions was 78.8% in the south areas, from which the South West had

Table 1
Background data for the estimation of maternal syphilis disease burden in India, Nigeria, and Zambia, 2012.

India Nigeria Zambia

Number of pregnancies
Total 29 681 000 8 407 508 678 419
Subnational range 1000–6 381 000 983 900–1 656 597 36 736–114 348
Data source HMISb Projected datad Projected datad
Seropositivity prevalence
Pooled national rate (%)a 0.49 1.37 2.06
Subnational range (%) 0.00–2.86 0.03–3.80 1.07–2.88
Data source HSSc GARe HMISg
Antenatal care coverage
Pooled national rate (%)a 91.2 61.5 92.5
Subnational range (%) 67.0–100.0 32.1–87.0 78.0–100.0
Data source HMISb NDHSf HMISg
Testing coverage
Pooled national rate (%)a 5.0 33.4 46.2
Subnational range (%) 0.1–69.9 8.0–50.0 26.1–71.9
Data source HMISb GARe HMISg
Treatment coverage
Pooled national rate (%)a 50.0 24.3 100.0
Subnational range (%) 50.0–50.0 1.2–29.0 100.0–100.0
Data source Consultation with country managers GARe Consultation with country managers
Testing and treatment coverage
Pooled national rate (%)a 4.8 8.1 52.3
Subnational range (%) 0.1–35.0 0.5–12.8 26.1–71.9
a
Pooled national rate is calculated as a mean rate weighted by subnational population size.
b
Health Management Information System 2010-2011.
c
HIV sentinel surveillance 2010 − 2011.
d
5% of the Projected 2012 population based on 2006 census for Nigeria and 5.2% of the 2010 census for Zambia.
e
General Antenatal Register system 2012.
f
Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey in 2008.
g
Health Management Information System 2012.
X.-S. Chen et al. / International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics 130 (2015) S4–S9 S7

Table 2 remains an elusive goal due, in part, to a paucity of reliable and accurate
Adverse outcomes associated with maternal syphilis averted by different screening and demographic and epidemiological data in many countries, particularly
treatment scenarios in India, Nigeria, and Zambia, 2012.
in low-resource countries. The present analysis is the first to produce es-
India Nigeria Zambia timates of syphilis-associated disease burden during pregnancy at na-
No. (%) No. (%) No. (%) tional and subnational levels, indicating that, in 2012, approximately
104 000, 75 000, and 9100 pregnant women were infected in India,
Current services
Any adverse outcome 872 (1.6) 1850 (4.8) 1745 (37.0) Nigeria, and Zambia, respectively.
Early fetal loss/stillbirth 344 (1.6) 729 (4.6) 688 (36.1) The subnational estimates calculated herein indicate that disease
Neonatal death 144 (1.5) 305 (4.5) 288 (35.2) burden frequently occurs disproportionally within countries. India had
Prematurity or low birth weight 77 (1.2) 163 (3.6) 153 (28.2) the highest estimates owing to its larger population, although the pro-
Congenital syphilis 310 (1.9) 657 (5.5) 620 (42.7)
Minus 20% of current services
portion of syphilis-infected women was lower than in Nigeria or
Any adverse outcome 558 (1.0) 1184 (3.0) 1117 (23.7) Zambia. In Nigeria, more than three-quarters (78.8%) of maternal syph-
Early fetal loss/stillbirth 220 (1.0) 467 (3.0) 440 (23.1) ilis cases were found in the southern provinces, with South West having
Neonatal death 92 (1.0) 195 (2.9) 184 (22.5) the highest estimate largely due its high syphilis prevalence. In addition,
Prematurity or low birth weight 49 (0.8) 104 (2.3) 98 (18.0)
these areas were also challenged because of the low screening and
Congenital syphilis 198 (1.2) 421 (3.5) 397 (27.3)
Elimination of MTCT targetsa treatment uptake. For example, only 1.2% of pregnant women in the
Any adverse outcome 37 860 (70.0) 22 975 (59.1) 3241 (68.7) South East province in Nigeria had access to syphilis screening in 2012.
Early fetal loss/stillbirth 14 925 (68.4) 9058 (57.7) 1,278 (67.1) In addition to disease burden, the adverse outcomes associated with
Neonatal death 6241 (66.7) 3787 (56.3) 534 (65.4) MTCT of syphilis with the current screening and treatment coverage
Prematurity or low birth weight 3328 (53.4) 2020 (45.0) 285 (52.3)
Congenital syphilis 13 452 (80.9) 8163 (68.2) 1152 (79.3)
were estimated. The estimates suggest that only 1.6% of adverse preg-
a
nancy outcomes in India, 4.8% in Nigeria, and 37.0% in Zambia are
Screening and treatment targets for elimination of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT)
prevented by current efforts in ANC syphilis screening and treatment
of syphilis: 95% of pregnant women attending antenatal care screened for syphilis and ade-
quate treatment of 95% of those infected. coverage. Although the proportion of women with access to ANC was
high in these countries, particularly in India and Zambia where more
than 90% of pregnant women attended at least one ANC visit, ensuring
the highest disease burden, accounting for 69.5% of the area’s subtotal or that these women are screened for syphilis and that seropositive
54.7% of the national total (Fig. 1b). In contrast, maternal syphilis was women are treated remains a challenge. In India, more than 90% of
evenly distributed across the country in Zambia (Fig. 1c). The subna- women were not screened for syphilis and only half of all seropositive
tional distribution of adverse outcomes was similar to that of maternal women were treated. In Nigeria, two thirds of the ANC attendees
syphilis infections. were not screened for syphilis and three-quarters of all seropositive
women did not receive treatment. In Zambia, although treatment was
4. Discussion available to all women attending ANC, less than half were screened.
Therefore, most maternal syphilis cases and related adverse outcomes
It is widely acknowledged that the estimation of morbidity attribut- occurred in pregnant women who had attended at least one ANC visit
able to maternal syphilis at the global, regional, or national level in these countries.

Fig. 1. Disease burden of maternal syphilis by subnational area in India (a), Nigeria (b), and Zambia (c) in 2012. Geographic scale varies between countries for illustrative purposes.
S8 X.-S. Chen et al. / International Journal of Gynecology and Obstetrics 130 (2015) S4–S9

There are many factors linked to the low uptake of syphilis screening ANC visit and immediate treatment for syphilis-infected women and
and treatment; many ANC facilities do not provide these services at any their partners, as well as the implementation of targeted interventions
points of care owing to policy constraints, logistic issues, or provider bias for high-risk groups and the general population [26], could lead to the
[18,19]. In some cases, screening is only available in large facilities with EMTCT of syphilis as a public health problem. Further implementation
laboratories [20]. In others, poor infrastructure, lack of trained staff, and research focusing on increasing the uptake of quality ANC services,
inadequate supply of testing kits, drugs, and equipment also contribute including syphilis screening and treatment, and on the improvement
to the lack of screening. Additionally, in some ANC settings where syph- of data collection through stronger national surveillance and monitor-
ilis screening and treatment services are available, these may be unaf- ing systems is critical to assist policymakers in strengthening national
fordable to pregnant women [20]. Further, social and cultural factors and subnational programs.
(e.g. stigma, lack of family support, or religious beliefs) may present bar-
riers for pregnant women to access these services [21,22]. Acknowledgments
Many efforts have been made in recent years to increase the access
and utilization of ANC services. India has introduced rapid syphilis test- We thank the National AIDS Control Organization and the Ministry
ing, integrated syphilis screening into ongoing HIV screening programs, of Health in India, the National AIDS/STI Control Program and the
and explicitly changed syphilis from being an optional to an essential National Agency for the Control of AIDS in Nigeria, and the Ministry of
part of the ANC package [23]. In Zambia, national guidelines [24] recom- Community Development, Mother, and Child Health and the Ministry
mend that all pregnant women attend at least four focused ANC visits of Health in Zambia, for participation in the consultation process, shar-
for counseling and education, general examinations, and screening, ing data for estimation, and commenting on the use of data. We thank
prevention, and treatment of specific diseases. Rapid syphilis tests the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and PATH for providing funding
have been introduced in Zambia in ANC settings to improve the uptake to WHO for this work through the Dual Testing to Eliminate Congenital
of screening [25]. Syphilis (DTECS) Project.
Sensitivity analysis indicates that, if the WHO-proposed EMTCT of
syphilis screening and treatment coverage targets had been reached in Conflict of interest
2012, the number of adverse outcomes successfully averted by the in-
terventions would have increased from 872 to 37 860 in India, from The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
1850 to 22 975 in Nigeria, and from 1745 to 3241 in Zambia. However,
given that screening and treatment is based on early access of pregnant References
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