Kolmogorov-Sm

a=1% a=5% a=10% Attained a DMax

Normal ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 80.56% 0.09335
Normal (L-MoACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 79.57% 0.09431
LogNormal ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 98.55% 0.06604
Galton ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 98.30% 0.06704
Exponential ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 30.66% 0.14146
Exponential ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 48.45% 0.1223
Gamma ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 98.80% 0.06488
Pearson III ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 98.28% 0.0671
Log Pearson ACCEPT
I ACCEPT ACCEPT 99.18% 0.0628
EV1-Max (GuACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 94.43% 0.07646
EV2-Max ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 71.17% 0.10199
EV1-Min (GuACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 19.14% 0.15849
EV3-Min (WeiACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 55.87% 0.11546
GEV-Max ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 98.88% 0.06447
GEV-Min ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 97.25% 0.0704
Pareto ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 24.48% 0.14986
GEV-Max (L-ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 99.75% 0.0574
GEV-Min (L- ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 99.28% 0.06208
EV1-Max (GuACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 98.40% 0.06665
EV2-Max (L- ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 85.74% 0.08805
EV1-Min (GuACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 16.94% 0.16262
EV3-Min (WeiACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 55.49% 0.1158
Pareto (L-MoACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 35.81% 0.13532
GEV-Max (kapACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 71.70% 0.10152
GEV-Min (kapACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 45.20% 0.12545
GEV-Max (kapACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 91.29% 0.08132
GEV-Min (kapACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 43.91% 0.12673
TIEMPO PP r n t
500 284.178 0.15 60 369.687989
400 279.659
300 273.799
200 265.462
100 250.95
50 235.998
25 220.419
Cuadro Nº16: Precipitación máxima corregida por intervalo fijo de observación
Período de Pmax. sin corrección Pmax. con corrección (*)
Retorno supte supte
500 284.178 321.12114
400 279.659 316.01467
300 273.799 309.39287
200 265.462 299.97206
100 250.95 283.5735
50 235.998 266.67774
25 220.419 249.07347
R=1-(1-1/T)n

TR PP PP CORR
400 190
RR % N
123.563265 0.15 20

ES EL TIEMPO DE RETORNO
 Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.99109184
Coeficiente d 0.98226303
R^2 ajustado0.98135344
Error típico 0.02744273
Observacion 42

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de Promedio
cuadradosde los cuadrados
F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 1.62655041 0.8132752 1079.89855 7.131E-35
Residuos 39 0.02937103 0.0007531
Total 41 1.65592144

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 2.6320459 0.02581576 101.955004 5.8954E-49 2.5798286
Variable X 1 0.14711486 0.00938589 15.674048 1.9947E-18 0.12813011
Variable X 2 -0.5408716 0.01236259 -43.750672 9.2115E-35 -0.5658773
or crítico de F

Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
2.6842632 2.5798286 2.6842632
0.16609961 0.12813011 0.16609961
-0.5158659 -0.5658773 -0.5158659
 CuadroN°13: Lluvias máximas (mm).- Estación Tingo Maria
T P.Max Duración en minutos
años 24 horas 5 10 15 20 30 60
500 321.1 34.5 51.6 63.0 71.9 85.6 112.4
400 316.0 33.6 50.2 61.4 70.1 83.4 109.5
300 309.4 32.4 48.5 59.3 67.7 80.5 105.8
200 300.0 30.8 46.1 56.4 64.3 76.6 100.5
100 283.6 28.1 42.0 51.4 58.6 69.7 91.6
50 266.7 25.3 37.9 46.3 52.9 62.9 61.4
25 249.1 22.6 33.8 41.3 47.1 56.1 73.6
Fuente: Elaboración del autor aplicando el Modelo de Bell

Cuadro N°14: Intensidades máximas (mm/hora).- Estación Tingo Maria

T P.Max Duración en minutos
años 24 horas 5 10 15 20 30 60
500 321.1 413.4 309.4 252.2 215.8 171.2 112.4
400 316.0 402.8 301.5 245.7 210.2 166.8 109.5
300 309.4 389.1 291.2 237.4 203.1 161.1 105.8
200 300.0 369.8 276.8 225.6 193.0 153.1 100.5
100 283.6 336.9 252.1 205.5 175.8 139.5 91.6
50 266.7 303.9 227.4 185.4 158.6 125.8 61.4
25 249.1 270.9 202.8 165.3 141.4 112.2 73.6
Fuente: Elaboración del autor

Cuadro N°15: Resultado del Análisis de Regresión:

Constante 2.6320459 Log K= 2.6320 K= 428.59
Err. estándar de est.Y 0.0274427 m= 0.147
R cuadrada 0.9813534 n= 0.541
Núm. de observaciones 42 I= 91085 T0.198
Grado de libertad 39 Donde: t.0.527
Coeficiente(s) X 0.1471149 -0.5408716 T= años
Error estándar de coef. 0.0093859 0.0123626 t= minutos
Fuente: Elaboración del autor
Y X1 X2
log I LogT Logt
2.6163704723 2.69897 0.69897
2.4905203094 2.69897 1
2.4017450822 2.69897 1.17609126
2.3340514403 2.69897 1.30103
2.2335037603 2.69897 1.47712125
2.0507663112 2.69897 1.77815125
2.6050894619 2.60205999 0.69897
2.4792873165 2.60205999 1
2.3904051565 2.60205999 1.17609126
2.3226327117 2.60205999 1.30103
2.2221960463 2.60205999 1.47712125
2.0394141192 2.60205999 1.77815125
2.5900612308 2.47712125 0.69897
2.4641913706 2.47712125 1
2.3754807146 2.47712125 1.17609126
2.3077099234 2.47712125 1.30103
2.2070955404 2.47712125 1.47712125
2.0244856677 2.47712125 1.77815125
2.5679669068 2.30103 0.69897
2.442166086 2.30103 1
2.353339095 2.30103 1.17609126
2.285557309 2.30103 1.30103
2.184975191 2.30103 1.47712125
2.002166062 2.30103 1.77815125
2.527501011 2 0.69897
2.401572846 2 1
2.312811826 2 1.17609126
2.245018871 2 1.30103
 2.144574208 2 1.47712125
1.961895474 2 1.77815125
2.482730700 1.69897 0.69897
2.356790460 1.69897 1
2.268109730 1.69897 1.17609126
2.200303183 1.69897 1.30103
2.099680641 1.69897 1.47712125
1.7881683711 1.69897 1.77815125
2.432809005 1.39794001 0.69897
2.3070679507 1.39794001 1
2.2182728536 1.39794001 1.17609126
2.1504494095 1.39794001 1.30103
2.0499928569 1.39794001 1.47712125
1.8668778143 1.39794001 1.77815125
 Cuadro N° 16: Intensidades máximas.- Tingo Maria
I= K Tm
tn
K= 428.59
m= 0.147
n= 0.541
Duración (t) Período de Retorno (T) en años
(minutos) 30 50 100
5 296.00 319.10 353.36
11 193.24 208.32 230.68
19 143.78 155.00 171.64
30 112.31 121.07 134.07
40 96.13 103.63 114.75
50 85.20 91.85 101.71
60 77.20 83.22 92.16
70 71.02 76.56 84.78
80 66.07 71.23 78.88
90 61.99 66.83 74.01
100 58.56 63.13 69.91
110 55.62 59.96 66.40
120 53.06 57.20 63.34

Grafico 11: Curva Intensidad-Duración-Frecuencia

Estación Supte

500

450
Intensidad (mm/hora)

400

350

300

250

200
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Duración en minutos

30 50 100 150 300 400

I= K Tm
tn
K= 2.59 4.95625008
m= 2.464
n= 2.375

imax =
5min

d=duracion de la pp en min

a Y= a1 + b1*D
b+D