Probability and

Statistics(2nd part)
10th grade
Instructor: Ruhiyya Dadashova
PLAN:

 Probability
 Dependent and independent events
 Certain and impossible events. Union and intersection of events
Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that an event will happen.
When dealing with probability, the outcomes of a process are the possible results. For example, when a die is rolled,
the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. In mathematical language, an event is a set of outcomes, which describe
what outcomes correspond to the "event" happening. For instance, "rolling an even number" is an event that
corresponds to the set of outcomes {2, 4, 6}. The probability of an event, like rolling an even number, is the number
of outcomes that constitute the event divided by the total number of possible outcomes. We call the outcomes in an
event its "favorable outcomes".

probability=
Probability
Experiment is a process that generates well-defined outcomes.

The sample space for an experiment is the set of all experimental outcomes.
1) If a die is rolled once, determine the probability of rolling a 4

2) If a die is rolled once, determine the probability of rolling at least a 4:

3) If a coin is flipped twice, determine the probability that it will land heads both times:

4) If Dan grabs one sock from a drawer containing 3 white socks, 4 blue socks, and 5 yellow
socks, what is the probability that he will grab a white sock?
If a die is rolled once, determine the probability of rolling a 4: Rolling a 4 is an event with 1
favorable outcome (a roll of 4) and the total number of possible outcomes is 6 (a roll of 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, or 6). Thus, the probability of rolling a 4 is 1/6.
If a die is rolled once, determine the probability of rolling at least a 4: Rolling at least 4 is an
event with 3 favorable outcomes (a roll of 4, 5, or 6) and the total number of possible
outcomes is again 6. Thus, the probability of rolling at least a 4 is = 3/6=1/2.
Here are two more examples:
If a coin is flipped twice, determine the probability that it will land heads both times:
Favorable outcomes: 1 -- HH
Possible outcomes: 4 -- HH, HT, TH, TT

Thus, the probability that the coin will land heads both times is .
Conditional Probability

A mathematics class consists of 30 students; 12 of them study French, 8 study German, 3 study both languages, and the rest
do not study a foreign language. If a student is chosen at random from this class, find the probability of each of the following
events.

a. The student studies French.

b. The student studies French, given that he or she studies German.

c. The student studies French, given that he or she studies a foreign language.
Problem:
In a sample of 100 students enrolling in a university, a questionnaire indicated that 45 of them studied English, 40 studied
French, 35 studied German, 20 studied both English and French, 23 studied both English and German, 19 studied both
French and German, and 12 studied all three languages. Using a Venn diagram, find the probability that a randomly
chosen student studied only one of the three languages.
Problem:
Number of elements in set A is equal 21, in set B is equal to 9, and their intersection is 3. Find probability of picking element
from intersection of A and B among elements in union of A and B.
Independent events do not affect one another and do not increase or decrease the probability of another
event happening

Each toss of a coin is a perfect isolated thing.

What it did in the past will not affect the current toss.
The chance is simply , or 50%, just like any toss of the coin.
So, each toss is an Independent Event.
Independent/Dependent Events
 Dependent events influence the probability of other events – or their probability of occurring is affected
by other events.

2 blue and 3 red marbles are in a bag. What are the chances of getting a blue marble?

The chance is 2 in 5 ()

But after taking one out the chances change!

So, the next time:

probability marbles
if we got a red marble before, then the chance of a blue marble next is 2 in 4 ()

1
(
if we got a blue marble before, then the chance of a blue marble next is 1 in4
4 )
 Replacement
Note: if we replace the marbles in the bag each time, then the chances do not change, and the events are independent:
•With Replacement: the events are Independent (the chances don't change)
•Without Replacement: the events are Dependent (the chances change)

Problem 1:
A box contains 4 red marbles, 3 green marbles and 2 blue marbles.  One marble is removed from the box and
then replaced. Another marble is drawn from the box.  What is the probability that the first marble is blue, and
the second marble is green?

Problem 2:

A box contains 4 red marbles, 3 green marbles and 2 blue marbles.  One marble is removed from the box, and it is
not replaced.  Another marble is drawn from the box.  What is the probability that the first marble is blue, and the
second marble is green?
 Tree Diagram

There is a 2/5 chance of pulling out a Blue marble, and a 3/5 chance for Red:

We can go one step further and see what happens when we pick a second marble:

Now let’s find what are the chances of drawing 2 blue marbles?
Problem 3:
Shareen has to select two students from a class of 23 girls and 25 boys. What is the probability that both students
chosen are boys?

Problem 4:
In a survey found that 10 out of 13 people walk to the office. 3 persons are selected randomly. What is the
probability that all three walks to the office?

Problem 5:
A bag contains 6 red,  5 blue, and 4 yellow balls. 2 balls are drawn, but the first ball is drawn without
replacement. Find the following. 
a) P (red, then blue)
b) P (blue, then blue)
Problem 6:
 A bag contains 4 red, 3 pink and 6 green balls. Two balls are drawn, but the first ball drawn is not
replaced.
a) Find P(red, then pink)
b) Find P(pink, then pink)
Problem:
A pack of 24 cards contains 12 red cars, 8 yellow cards and 4 pink cards. In a game a player has to select two cards, one after the
another. Find the probabilities that a player selects, (a) 2 red cards, (b) 2 yellow cards, (c) 2 pink cards, (d) 2 cards that are the
same colour, (e) a pink card and a yellow card in any order
Problem:
A bag contains 3 red counters and 4 blue counters. Two counters are taken out of the bag.
Find the probability that:

a) both counters are red,

b) both counters are the same colour,  
c) the counters are different colours.  
Intersection and Union of events:
The intersection of events A and B, denoted A∩B, is the collection of all outcomes that are elements of both of
the sets A and B. It corresponds to combining descriptions of the two events using the word “and.”

For example: Find the probability that the number rolled is both even and greater than two.
 
Sample space is S={1,2,3,4,5,6} and the event in question is the intersection of the previous example.

The union of events A and B, denoted A∪B, is the collection of all outcomes that are elements of one or the other of the
sets A and B, or of both of them. It corresponds to combining descriptions of the two events using the word “or.”

For example: The likelihood of the 3 teams a, b, c winning a football match are 1 / 3, 1 / 5 and 1 / 9 respectively. Find
the probability that out of the three teams, either team a or team b will win
Problem:
There are 4 red, 5 green, and 7 black marbles. Find probability of picking green or black marble.
Questions???