Module II: Probability and Probability Distributions

Descriptors/Topics
1. Types of events and Algebra of events. Assigning probability to events;
2. Joint, Marginal and Conditional Probability.
3. Probability Rules; complement Rule, Multiplication Rule, Addition Rule, Bayes’ Theorem.

Probability Distributions:
1. Mean or Expected value of random variable.
2. Variance and Standard Deviation of random variables.
3. Binomial Probability Distribution, Poisson Probability Distribution and Normal Probability
Distribution.
Using MS Excel for computation of Binomial, Poisson and Normal probabilities.
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Probability

The probability theory provides a means of getting an idea of the like hood of occurrence of different events
resulting from a random experiment in term of quantitative measure between zero and one. The probability
of a impossible event is zero while sure event is unit. Probability can be defined as number of favorable case
/total number of cases. Probability is a numerical measure which indicates the chance of occurrence of an
event. Probability always lies between 0 and 1including 0 and 1.

Basic Terminology used

Experiment – An operation that result in a define outcomes is called an experiment
Sample space – The total number of outcomes of an experiment is known as sample space.
Event – event may be a single outcomes or combination of outcomes.
Equally likely event – two or more event are said to be equally likely if they have equal chance of occurring
Mutually exclusive events – two or more events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one
prevents the occurrence of other events at mean they cannot occur simultaneously.
Independent event – Two events are said to be independent of each other if the occurrence of one is not
affected by the occurrence of other or does not affect the occurrence of the other.
Dependent event – if the occurrence of one event affects the happening of the other events, then they are
said to be dependent event.
Simple event – An event is said to be simple if it corresponds to a single possible outcomes of an
experiment.
Compound event – The joint occurrence of two or more single events is called a compound event.

Problem on coin
1. A coin is tossed once. Find the probability of getting tail, head, head or tail.
2. Two tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting only one tail, only one head, both are head,
both are tails, no head, at least one head, at most one head.
3. Three coin tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting only one head, only two head, all three
head, no head, at least one head, at least two head, at most one head, at most two head, all three are head.

Problem on dice
1. One dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting 2, getting 4, getting 2 or 4, odd number, even number,
more than 5, less than 4.
2. Two dice are thrown simultaneously. Find the probability of getting total of 5 , total of 6, total of 5 or total
of 6, first dice shown a 6, a total of 12, number 4 comes up at least once and probability of getting more than
9.

Problem on cards
1. One card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting a red card, a spade, a king, a
red king, a king or queen, a black card.
2. Two cards are drawn from the pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting a one king; both are king,
at least one king, no king, at most one king, one spade, at least one spade, one king and other is queen.
3. Three card are drawn from the pack of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting one king, two king, all
three are king, no king, at least one king, at least two king, at most one king, at most two king, two spade,
two king and one queen, more than one king, less than two king.

Problem on balls
1. A bag contain 4 white balls,7 black balls and 3 red balls. One ball is drawn from the bag. Find the
probability that it is a white ball, black ball, white or black ball, white or black or red balls.
2. A bag contains 3 blue balls, 8 green balls and 4 red balls. Two balls are drawn from the bag, Find the
probability of getting both are red balls, one red and one green balls, at least one red balls, at most one green
balls, more than one red ball, at most one blue ball, more than one blue balls.
3. A bag contains 3 red, 6 white and 4 black balls. Three balls are drawn simultaneously, Find the
probability of getting all three are red, one red, two red, at least one red, at least two red, at most one red, no
red, more than one white, less than two black, at most one white balls.
4. A bag contains 5 red, 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the bag. Find the probability that
both of them are red if (i) the balls are drawn together (ii) the balls are drawn one after the other with
replacement (iii) the balls are drawn one after the other without replacement

Problem on selection
1. Two students X and Y work independently on a problem. The probability that X will solve it is ¾ and the
probability that Y will solve it is 2/3. What is the probability that only one solved the problem, both solve
the problem, none of them solve the problem, at least one solve, at most one solve the problem.
2. Three student’s appears for an interview. The probability of selecting A is 2/3, B is 6/7 and C is 2/3. What
is the probability that one will be selected, only two will be selected, no one is selected, at least one will be
selected, at least two will be selected, at most one will be selected, less than two will be selected, more than
one will selected.

Problem on dependence.
1. A die is rolled. If the outcomes are odd number, what is the probability that it is prime? (Ans =2/3)
2. Two dice are thrown .Find the probability that the sum of the numbers is the two die is 10, given that the
first die show a six. (Ans =1/6)
3. Two coins are tossed. What is the conditional probability of getting two heads given that at least one coin
shows a head? . (Ans =1/3)
4. In a class 40% students read statistics, 25% mathematics and 15% both mathematics and statistics. One
student is selected at random. Find the probability (i) that he reads statistics; if it is known that he reads
mathematics (ii) that he reads mathematics, if it known that he reads statistics.(Ans =3/5,3/8)

Problem of Table
1. Lisa travel club has 1000 member. 60% of this member is male. 45% of these member pay by credit card
when they travel including 175 females. If a member enters the travel club at random, what is the probability
that (i) the member is a female (ii) the member is female and pays cash? (iii) The member is a male or a
credit card user.

Others Problem
1. A committee of 4 people is to be appointed from 3 officer of the production dep’t, 4 officer of the
purchase dep’t, 2 officer of sales dep’t and 1 C.A. Find the probability of forming the committee in the
following manner. (i) There must be one from each category (ii) it should have at least one from the
purchase dep’t (iii)the C.A must be in the committee.(Ans = 24/210,13/14,2/5)
2. A bag contains 30 balls numbered from 1 to 30. One ball is drawn. Find the probability that number of the
drawn ball is a multiple of 4 or 9.
3. A box contains 3 red and 7 white balls. One ball is drawn at random and in its place a ball of the other
color is put in the box. Now one ball is drawn at random at random from the box. Find the probability that it
is red.
4. A bag contains 8 red balls and 5 white balls. Two successive draw of 3 balls are made (i) balls are
replaced before the second trial (ii) the balls are not replaced before the second trial. Find the probability
that the first drawing will give 3 white balls and second 3 red balls.
5. Box I contain 5 red and 6 blue balls. Box II contain 6 red and 4 blue. A ball is drawn at random from box
I and is transferred to box II. Now from the box II a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that it is
red?
6. Let A and B be event such that-
P (A) = 1/3. P (B) =1/4 and P (A ∩ B) = 1/5 Find (i) P (A/B) (ii) P (B/A) (iii) P (A ∪ B) (Ans =4/5, 3/5,
23/60)
7. A speak truth in 75% and B in 80% of the cases. In what percentage of cases are they likely to contradict
each other narrating the same incident? (Ans = 7/20)
8. Three group of children contains 3 girls and 1 boy, 2 girls and 2 boys, 1 girl and 3 boys respectively. Once
child is selected at random from each group .Find the chance that the three selected comprise 1 girl and 2
boys (Ans = 13/32)

Some Results
P (A) = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of possible outcomes
P (A ∪ B) = P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
P (A ∩ B) =P (A and B) = P (A). P (B)
P (B|A) = P (A ∩ B) / P (A)
P (A|B) = P (A ∩ B) / P (B)
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then P (A ∩ B) = 0 (that means they cannot occur together)

Bays Theorem
Suppose that A1, A2, A3 are mutually exclusive events such that they form position of the sample space. Let
B be any event which occur in conjunction with only one of the events .Now if
(i) The prior probability P (A1), P (A2), P (A3) is known.
(ii) The conditional probabilities P (B/A1), P (B/A2), P (B/A3) are also known.

Then, according to Bayes Rule, the conditional probability can be defined as

P(A1/B) = P(B/A1) P(A1) / P(B/A1) P(A1) +P(B/A2) P(A2) + P(B/A3) P(A3) is the general Bays Rule.
Thus Bays rule provides us the posterior probabilities P (A1/B) expressed in term of a priori probabilities P
(A1) and conditional probabilities P (B/A1) or Bay theorem can be expressed as

(j =1, 2, 3, till k)
Some problems

1. (Four value are given) the probability that a graduate student being male is 0.25 and that being female is
0.75. The probability that a male student pass the course is 0.7 and a female student does it is 0.80.A student
selected random is found to have completed the course. What is the probability that the student is a (i) male
(ii) female

2. (Six value are given).Three supplier X, Y and Z supply item to an established in proportion of 1/2,1/3 and
1/6 respectively. Of the item supplied by X, Y and Z, 5%, 6% and 8% respectively are found to be defective.
An item is taken at random from the lot is found to be defective, what is the probability that it is supplied by
(i) supplier X (ii) Supplier Y (iii) Supplier Z.

3. Three member X, Y and Z of a private club have been nominated for the office of the president. The
probability that X will be selected is 0.3, the probability that Y will be elected is 0.5 and the probability that
Z will be elected is 0.2.Should X be elected, the probability for increased in membership fee is 0.4.Should Y
or Z be elected, the corresponding probability for increased in fee are 0.2 and 0.3. If fee has been increased,
what is the probability the (i) X was elected present of the club (ii) Y was elected president of the club.(iii)
Find probability that fees has been increased.

4. Three machine A, B and C produce respectively 50%, 30% and 20% of the total number of items of a
factory. The percentage of defective output of these machines is 3%, 4% and 5%. If an item is selected at
random, find the probability, (i) That the item is defective (ii) that the item was produced by machine A.
5. We are given three urns as follows-
Urn A contain 3 red and 5 white balls
Urn B contains 2 red and 1 white balls
Urn C contains 2 red and 3 white balls.
An urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the earn. If the ball is red, what is the probability that
it comes from urn A?
6. A bag contains 3 white and 4 black balls and a bag B contains 5 white and 3 black balls. One ball is drawn
at random from one of the bag that it is found to be black. Find the probability that it was drawn from the
bag B.
7. An insurance company insured 2000 scoter driver, 4000 car driver and 6000 truck driver. The probability
of an accident involving a scooter driver, car driver and a truck driver is 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively.
One of the insured people meets with accident. What is the probability that he is scooter driver?

Binomial distribution
It is useful in such an experiment where there are only two outcomes – successes or failure.
According to the binomial distribution, the probability of r successes in n trials can be calculated.
Assumption of Binomial Distribution
• Each trial has only two mutually exclusive possible outcomes, successes or failure.
• Each trial is independent of other trial.
• The probability of successes remains constant from trial to trial.
• The number of trial is fixed.
• Binomial distribution is a discrete distribution.
• For binomial distribution, mean = np and variance = npq
Binomial Distribution
Here n = number of trial
p = probability of successes
q = probability of failure (1-p)
x = number of required successes
Also mean = np
Variance = npq

Problems
1. The incidence of a certain disease is such that on the average 20% of worker suffer from it. If 6 worker
are selected at random. Find the probability of getting exactly 2, at least 2, at most 2, less than 2; more than
2 workers suffer from the disease.
2. Comment on the following.
For a binomial distribution, mean = 7 and variance = 11.
3. Six coins are tossed in succession. Find the probability of getting more than 4 head, at most 2 head and at
least one head.
4. A die is thrown 6 times if “getting an odd number is a success”. What is the probability of (i) 5 successes
(ii) at least 5 successes (iii) at most 5 successes (iv) at least one successes (v) no successes.
5. A binomial variable x satisfies the relation 9P(x=4) = P(x=2) when n=6.Find the value of the parameter.
6. If on an average 9 ship out of 10 returns safe to port. What is the chance that out of 5 ships 3 ships will
arrive safely?

Poisson distribution
In binomial distribution the value of n was finite but there are few problems when n cannot be estimated. In
such case Poisson distribution is applicable.
Here when is n is very large and probability of successes is very small, we use Poisson distribution.
Properties of Poisson distribution
• It is a discrete probability distribution.
• There is only one parameter of the Poisson distribution which is m. Thus if m is known, the
Poisson probability distribution is completely known. If n and p are known, then m =np
• The mean of the Poisson distribution is m which is equal to np
• The variance of the Poisson distribution is also m. Thus, the mean and variance of the Poisson
distribution are the same.
• It is a limiting case of binomial probability distribution
• With the following three condition, the binomial distribution tends to the Poisson distribution-(i)
p is small (ii) n is large (iii) np =m (a finite constant)
 • It is a positively skewed distribution.
• There is no upper limit with the number of number of occurrence of an event during a specified
time period.
• Mean = variance = np for Poisson distribution.
Some Results
The probability of x successes can be given as

Problems
1. It is given that 2% of the screws manufactured by a company are defective. Use Poisson distribution to
find the probability that a packet of 200 screws contains no defective, 1 defective, at most 1 defective, less
than 1 defective, more than 1 defective, at least 1 defective. (Given e-4 =0.018).
2. If a random number, X follows the Poisson pattern such that P(x = 1) = P(x = 2). Find the mean of
distribution and find P(X = 0).
3. It is known from the past experience that in a certain plants there are on the average 4 industrial accident
per month. Find the there will be less than 2 accident, more than 2 accident, at least 2 accident, at most 2
accident. (Given e-4 = 0.018)
4. In certain factory turning out razor blades, there is a small chance of 1/500 for any blades to be defective.
The blade are supplied in a packet of 10.Find the number of 2 defective in a consignment of 10000 packet
(given e-0.02 = 0.98)
5.If the proportion of defective in a bulk is 4%.Find the probability of not more than 2 defective in a sample
of 10 (given e-0.4 = 0.018)
6. In a certain manufacturing process, 5% of the tools produced turnout to be defective. Find the probability
that in a sample of 40 tools at most 2 will be defective (given e-0.2 = 0.13)
7. A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day. The number of demand for a car on each day is
distributed with mean 1.5.Calculate the proportion of days on which (i) neither car is used (ii) some demand
is refused (given e-1.5 = 0.22)
8. Find the probability that at most 5 fuses will be found in a box of 200 fuses if experience show that 2% of
such fuses are defective. (Given e-4 = 0.0.0183)
9. If 3% of the electric bulb manufactured by a company is defective, find the probability that in a sample of
100 bulbs exactly five bulbs are defective.

Normal Distribution
The most important continuous probability distribution used in the entire field of statistics is the normal
distribution. It is a graph called the normal curve that extends indefinitely in both directions, coming closer
and closer to the horizontal axis without ever reaching it. Generally, the distribution of quantitative data
show concentration of frequencies near the central value of the distribution and then the frequency gradually
taper off symmetrically on both sides of the central value. This general tendency of data, for a very large
number of observations, give rise to the symmetrical bell shaped normal curve. The standard normal
distribution with mean 0 and standard deviation is 1 can be calculated as

Properties of normal distribution

• It is a continuous probability distribution having parameter mean and standard deviation.
• The normal curve is perfectively symmetrical about the mean and i.e. if we fold the curve along with
this vertical axis, the two halves of the curve would coincide.
• As a result of symmetry ,the mean ,median and mode of the distribution are identical i.e. Mean =
median = mode
• Mean and standard deviation are the two parameter of the distribution.
• The curve is asymptotic to x-axis i.e. it becomes closer and closer to x-axis but never touches it.
• Skewness is 0 for normal distribution.
• The mean deviation = 4/5 standard deviation
• Since there is only one maximum point in the curve, the normal curve is unimodel i.e. it has only one
mode.
• The total area under the and above the horizontal axis is 1.0 which is essential for a distribution or a
curve.
• It is possible to transform any normal random variable X with mean and variance to a normal
random variable Z with mean 0 and variance1.This normal random variable Z with mean 0 and
variance 1 is called standard normal variable. The transformation of X to Z is

Problems
1. The average monthly sales of 5000 firms are normally distributed. Its mean and standard deviation are Rs
36000 and Rs 10000 respectively. Find number of firm having sales (i) less than 30000 (ii) more than 30000
(iii) less than 40000 (iv) more than 40000 (v) between 30000 and 40000 (vi) between 30000 and 34000 (vi)
between 40000 and 42000.( Given Z(0.4) 0.15, Z(0.6 )=0.22 )
2. Assuming the mean height of student is an exactly normal distribution be 68.22 inches and variance of
10.8 inches square. How many students in a college of 1000 student would you expect to be over six feet
tall? (A=125)
3. A talent test was conducted on 5000 students in a school in which the mean score was found to be 65 and
standard deviation was 15.If the population is assumed to be normal. How many students have score (i) less
than 50 (ii) between 60 and 70 marks (iii) more than 75 marks.
4. Score in an examination were considered as normal distribution with a mean 75 and a standard deviation
of 15.If the lowest passing score is 60, what percentage of those who took the examination failed to pass it?
5. The mean life of bulb is normally distributed with mean 120 days and standard deviation 20 days. If 1000
such bulb is installed then find how many bulbs will fail in less than 90 days.
6. An electrical firm manufactures light bulb which have a life length that is normally distributed with mean
800 hours and slandered deviation of 400 hours. Find the probability that the bulb burns between 778 and
834 hours.
7.2000 students appeared in an examination. Distribution of marks is assumed to be normal with mean 30
and standard deviation 6.25. How many students are expected to get marks (i) between 20 and 40 (ii) less
than 35.(A=1781 and 1576 )
8. In a distribution exactly normal 7% of the item are under 35 and 89% are under 63.What are the mean and
standard deviation of the distribution? (Ans mean = 50.3 and standard deviation = 10.33)
9. Of a large group of men, 5% are less than 60 inches in height and 40% are between 60 and 65 inches.
Assuming a normal distribution, find the mean height and standard deviation. (Mean =65.42 and SD =3.29)
10. The weekly wages of 2000 workers in a factory are normally distributed with a mean of Rs 200 and a
variance of Rs 400.Estimate the lowest weekly wages of the 197 highest paid workers and Estimate the
highest weekly wages of the 197 lowest paid workers. (A=225.8 and 174.2)

Mean or Expected value of random variable.

We can calculate the mean (or expected value) of a discrete random variable as the weighted average of all
the outcomes of that random variable based on their probabilities. We interpret expected value as the
predicted average outcome if we looked at that random variable over an infinite number of trials.

To find the expected value, E(X), or mean μ of a discrete random variable X, simply multiply each value of
the random variable by its probability and add the products. The formula is given as E ( X ) = μ = ∑ x P ( x )
.
Variance and Standard Deviation of random variables.

So the variance of X is the weighted average of the squared deviations from the mean μ, where the weights
are given by the probability function pX(x) of X. The standard deviation of X is defined to be the square
root of the variance of X. That is, sd(X)=σX=√var(X).

In words, the variance of a random variable is the average of the squared deviations of the random variable
from its mean (expected value). Notice that the variance of a random variable will result in a number with
units squared, but the standard deviation will have the same units as the random variable.

 μ = Σxp
 Var(X) = Σx2p − μ2
 σ = √Var(X)