13-5 Probabilities of Independent and Dependent Events

Objectives: 1. Find probabilities of independent and dependent events.

2. Find probabilities of events given the occurrence of other events.

Independent and Dependent Events. A compound event or composite event consists of two or more
simple events. For example, in your class of 32 students, let’s say we are drawing names for presentations.
Tiffany is hoping to go first to get it out of the way, and Ivana wants to go second (because she also wants
to get it over with but doesn’t want to go first). The probability that Tiffany is first and Ivana is second,
would be a compound event.

Probabilities of multiple events are called compound probabilities. Compound events can be independent
or dependent.

- Events A and B are independent events if the probability that A occurs does not affect the
probability that B occurs.
Ex. flipping coin, rolling dice

- Events A and B are dependent events if the probability that A occurs in some way changes the
probability B occurs.
Ex.
getting gumballs out of a machine
Consider pulling marbles out of a jar. If you replace the marbles every time you pull one out, it would not
affect any probabilities of getting a certain color. If you don’t replace the marbles, any subsequent
probabilities will be affected.

NOTE: The word “and” in a probability means the intersection of two events.

The word “or” in a probability means the union of two events.

Determine if the events are independent or dependent.

- Mrs. Springer is using her app “Class Cards” to randomly call on students. Once the student is
called on, the name will not come up again unless Mrs. Springer shakes her phone. You are finding
the probability that Brian and John would be called.
- Mrs. Springer is using her app “Class Cards” to randomly call on students. She calls on Brian and
then shakes her phone. You are finding the probability Brian’s name comes up again.
- Wednesday’s lottery numbers and Sunday’s lottery numbers.

Probability of Two Independent Events

If two events A and B are independent, P  A and B  

Probability of Two Dependent Events

If two events A and B are dependent, P  A and B   P  A  P  B A 

The notation P  B A  is read the probability that B occurs given A has occurred. This is called conditional
probability.
Example. You are flipping a coin (Heads or Tails) and spinning a spinner. There is an equal chance of the
spinner landing on Green (G), Red (R), or Blue (B).

Is the probability you will get Tails and Blue independent or dependent?

Find the probability. Write out all the possibilities: HG HR HB TG TR TB

Use the formula: P(T and B) = P(T) x P(B) =1/2 x 1/3 = 1/6

Example.You have a jar of marbles. You have 8 red, 12 blue, 4 white and 4 yellow.

Find the following probabilities: dependent

Without replacing the marbles, find: P(D) x P(R/B)

a.) P(Blue then Red): 12/28 x 8/27 = 8/65 b.) P(White then Red then Red): 4/28 x 8/27 x 7/26 = 4/351

Find P(White then Red then Red) with replacement :

4/20 x 8/28 x 8/28 = 4/343
independent
Conditional probabilities

In addition to its use in finding the probabilities of two or more dependent events, conditional probability
can be used when additional information is known about an event.

For example, Kayla rolls a die and we know she has rolled an odd number. What is the probability she
rolled a 5? There are only 3 odd numbers out of the 6, so the sample space is made up of 3 numbers, not 6.
Instead of finding P  rolling a 5  16 , P  5 odd   13

Exercises:
1. A blue marble is selected at random from a bag of 3 red and 9 blue marbles and not replaced. What is the
probability that a second marble selected will be blue?

P(B/B) = 8/11

2. A die is rolled. If the number rolled is less than 5, what is the probability that it is the number 2?

P(2/#<5) = 1/4

3. When two dice are rolled, what is the probability that one die is a 4 given that the sum of the two die is
9?
2/4 = 1/2

4. A spinner with 8 evenly sized sections and numbered 1 through 8 is spun. Find the probability that the number
spun is 6 given that it is an even number.

1/2