EJERCICIO DEL PROYECCIÓN MUNDIAL DE COBRE AÑO 2018

DEMANDA Pronóstico 3 Pronóstico 6 Pronóstico 9 Error

PERIODO AÑO OBSERVADA años años años 3 años
1 1990 9,120.20
2 1991 9,068.00
3 1992 9,719.40
4 1993 9,685.50 9,302.53 382.97
5 1994 9,739.10 9,490.97 248.13
6 1995 9,702.50 9,714.67 12.17
7 1996 10,401.90 9,709.03 9,505.78 692.87
8 1997 10,778.70 9,947.83 9,719.40 830.87
9 1998 10,928.00 10,294.37 10,004.52 633.63
10 1999 11,493.75 10,702.87 10,205.95 9,904.81 790.88
11 2000 11,855.35 11,066.82 10,507.33 10,168.54 788.53
12 2001 12,378.75 11,425.70 10,860.03 10,478.24 953.05
13 2002 11,958.10 11,909.28 11,306.08 10,773.73 48.82
14 2003 12,054.65 12,064.07 11,565.44 11,026.24 9.42
15 2004 12,346.82 12,130.50 11,778.10 11,283.52 216.32
16 2005 12,999.67 12,119.86 12,014.57 11,577.34 879.81
17 2006 13,398.00 12,467.05 12,265.56 11,865.98 930.95
18 2007 13,508.06 12,914.83 12,522.67 12,157.01 593.23
19 2008 13,846.48 13,301.91 12,710.88 12,443.68 544.57
20 2009 14,048.61 13,584.18 13,025.61 12,705.10 464.43
21 2010 14,210.62 13,801.05 13,357.94 12,948.79 409.57
22 2011 14,403.92 14,035.24 13,668.57 13,152.33 368.68
23 2012 14,747.05 14,221.05 13,902.62 13,424.09 526.00
24 2013 15,365.75 14,453.86 14,127.46 13,723.25 911.89
25 2014 16,623.07 14,838.91 14,437.07 14,058.68 1,784.16
26 2015 17,144.61 15,578.62 14,899.84 14,461.28 1,565.99
27 2016 17,524.31 16,377.81 15,415.84 14,877.57 1,146.50
28 2017 17,634.06 17,097.33 15,968.12 15,323.82 536.73
PRONOSTICO PERIODO 29 17,434.33 16,506.48 15,744.67 650.81

El mejor pronostico que podemos seleccionar es el de 3 meses pues tiene el mejor promedio del error absoluto
 Error Error
6 años 9 años

896.12
1,059.30
923.48
1,287.80 1,588.94
1,348.03 1,686.81
1,518.72 1,900.51
652.03 1,184.37
489.21 1,028.41
568.72 1,063.30
985.10 1,422.33
1,132.44 1,532.02
985.40 1,351.05
1,135.60 1,402.80
1,023.00 1,343.51
852.68 1,261.83
735.35 1,251.59
844.44 1,322.96
1,238.29 1,642.50
2,186.00 2,564.39
2,244.77 2,683.33
2,108.47 2,646.74
1,665.94 2,310.24
1,176.40 1,641.45

romedio del error absoluto

EJERCICIO DEL PROYECCIÓN MUNDIAL DE COBRE AÑO 2018

DEMANDA Pronóstico Pronóstico Pronóstico Error

PERIODO AÑO OBSERVADA α=0,1 α=0,5 α=0,9 α=0,1
1 1990 9,120.20
2 1991 9,068.00 9,120.20 9,120.20 9,120.20
3 1992 9,719.40 9114.98 9094.10 9073.22 604.42
4 1993 9,685.50 9175.42 9417.19 9658.96 510.08
5 1994 9,739.10 9226.43 9430.46 9634.49 512.67
6 1995 9,702.50 9277.70 9482.76 9687.83 424.80
7 1996 10,401.90 9320.18 9490.10 9660.02 1081.72
8 1997 10,778.70 9428.35 9861.04 10293.73 1350.35
9 1998 10,928.00 9563.38 10103.52 10643.66 1364.62
10 1999 11,493.75 9699.85 10245.69 10791.54 1793.90
11 2000 11,855.35 9879.24 10596.80 11314.36 1976.11
12 2001 12,378.75 10076.85 10867.29 11657.74 2301.90
13 2002 11,958.10 10307.04 11227.80 12148.56 1651.06
14 2003 12,054.65 10472.14 11132.57 11792.99 1582.51
15 2004 12,346.82 10630.39 11263.40 11896.40 1716.43
16 2005 12,999.67 10802.04 11488.61 12175.18 2197.63
17 2006 13,398.00 11021.80 11900.85 12779.91 2376.20
18 2007 13,508.06 11259.42 12209.90 13160.38 2248.64
19 2008 13,846.48 11484.28 12383.74 13283.20 2362.20
20 2009 14,048.61 11720.50 12665.38 13610.26 2328.11
21 2010 14,210.62 11953.31 12884.56 13815.80 2257.31
22 2011 14,403.92 12179.05 13081.97 13984.89 2224.87
23 2012 14,747.05 12401.53 13291.48 14181.43 2345.52
24 2013 15,365.75 12636.08 13574.29 14512.50 2729.67
25 2014 16,623.07 12909.05 14000.92 15092.78 3714.02
26 2015 17,144.61 13280.45 14766.06 16251.67 3864.16
27 2016 17,524.31 13666.87 15212.53 16758.19 3857.44
28 2017 17,634.06 14052.61 15595.59 17138.57 3581.45
PRONOSTICO PERIODO 29 14410.76 15843.34 17275.92 2036.84
Pronóstico Pronóstico
α=0,5 α=0,9

625.30 646.18
268.31 26.54
308.64 104.61
219.74 14.67
911.80 741.88
917.66 484.97
824.48 284.34
1248.06 702.21
1258.55 540.99
1511.46 721.01
730.30 190.46
922.08 261.66
1083.42 450.42
1511.06 824.49
1497.15 618.09
1298.16 347.68
1462.74 563.28
1383.23 438.35
1326.06 394.82
1321.95 419.03
1455.57 565.62
1791.46 853.25
2622.15 1530.29
2378.55 892.94
2311.78 766.12
2038.47 495.49
1278.00 533.82
EJERCICIO DEL PROYECCIÓN MUNDIAL DE COBRE AÑO 2018

DEMANDA
AÑO PERIODO OBSERVADA Pronóstico Error
1990 1 9,120.20 8561.53 558.67 �=𝐵_0+𝐵_1∗�
1991 2 9,068.00 8870.96 197.04
1992 3 9,719.40 9180.39 539.01
1993 4 9,685.50 9489.82 195.68 20,000.00

1994 5 9,739.10 9799.25 60.15 18,000.00

1995 6 9,702.50 10108.68 406.18 16,000.00 f(x) = 309.426138478
1996 7 10,401.90 10418.11 16.21
14,000.00
1997 8 10,778.70 10727.54 51.16
1998 9 10,928.00 11036.97 108.97 12,000.00
1999 10 11,493.75 11346.4 147.35 10,000.00
2000 11 11,855.35 11655.83 199.52
8,000.00
2001 12 12,378.75 11965.26 413.49
6,000.00
2002 13 11,958.10 12274.69 316.59
2003 14 12,054.65 12584.12 529.47 4,000.00
2004 15 12,346.82 12893.55 546.73 2,000.00
2005 16 12,999.67 13202.98 203.31
0.00
2006 17 13,398.00 13512.41 114.41 0 5
2007 18 13,508.06 13821.84 313.78
2008 19 13,846.48 14131.27 284.79
2009 20 14,048.61 14440.7 392.09
2010 21 14,210.62 14750.13 539.51
2011 22 14,403.92 15059.56 655.64
2012 23 14,747.05 15368.99 621.94
2013 24 15,365.75 15678.42 312.67
2014 25 16,623.07 15987.85 635.22
2015 26 17,144.61 16297.28 847.33
2016 27 17,524.31 16606.71 917.60
2017 28 17,634.06 16916.14 717.92
PRONOSTICO PERIODO 29 17,434.33 387.23
�=𝐵_0+𝐵_1∗�

20,000.00

18,000.00

16,000.00 f(x) = 309.4261384784x + 8252.0684920635

14,000.00

12,000.00

10,000.00

8,000.00

6,000.00

4,000.00

2,000.00

0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30