This article has been accepted for publication in a future issue of this journal, but has not been
fully edited. Content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/JSTSP.2019.2931671, IEEE Journal
of Selected Topics in Signal Processing
Downlink Channel Prediction for Time-Varying
FDD Massive MIMO Systems
Wei Peng, Senior Member, IEEE, Wengang Li, Wei Wang, Member, IEEE, Xiao Wei, Tao Jiang, Fellow, IEEE
Abstract—Accurate channel estimation is important for mas-
sive multiple-input multiple-output (mMIMO) to ensure good
performance. Considering mMIMO application in 5G, frequency
division duplexing (FDD) can provide higher data rate and wider
coverage than the time division duplexing (TDD) mode. How-
ever, since the uplink/downlink channel is not straightforwardly
reciprocal, FDD downlink channel estimation requires heavier
training and computation than TDD mode due to the massive
number of antennas. In addition, fast channel variation renders
the real time estimation even more difficult. In this paper, we
propose a downlink channel prediction scheme for FDD mMIMO,
which requires only the TDD overhead. Specifically, the downlink
channel matrix is represented by three components: steering
matrix (frequency dependent), fading coefficients (time varying),
and time delays (semi-static). By the proposed scheme, these three
components can be obtained through uplink training. In addition,
fast tracking and prediction is leveraged to obtain the real time
channel state information. Simulation results show that accurate
channel prediction is obtained via low cost and complexity by
the proposed scheme.
Index Terms—Massive MIMO, FDD, downlink, channel pre-
diction.
I. I NTRODUCTION
M ASSIVE multiple-input multiple-output (mMIMO) is
one of the most important technologies for the fu-
ture wireless communication systems [1]. The mMIMO base
station (BS) is equipped with hundreds or even thousands
of antennas and fully employs the spatial diversity [2]-[5].
Considering the application of mMIMO in the 5G system,
the frequency division duplexing (FDD) mode can provide
higher data rate as well as wider coverage than the time
division duplexing (TDD) mode. In addition, FDD mMIMO
is backward compatible to the current cellular network which
is FDD dominated [6].
However, the channel estimation for FDD mMIMO systems
still faces many challenges such as high pilot overhead and
computational complexity [6]. In particular, the commonly
used uplink/downlink channel reciprocity in TDD mode is
not applicable, rendering the channel state information (CSI)
estimation through uplink training invalid. In addition, due to
the massive number of antennas at the BS, downlink training
is spectrally inefficient and thus impractical. Furthermore, the
CSI is generally time-varying due to the mobility of users [7].
Therefore, channel tracking and prediction is necessary [8].
Extensive studies have been carried out on pilot assisted
downlink FDD mMIMO channel estimation, aiming to reduce
the training overhead. By exploiting the spatial correlation,
the training signals are transmitted on part of the antennas
[9]. Based on the channel sparsity, a sparse pilot is de-
signed with hybrid generalized approximate message passing
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1
reconstruction [10], and a compressive sensing (CS)-based
channel estimation scheme is proposed in [11]. However, the
assumption of channel correlation or sparsity as the prior
knowledge is not always valid, especially in the fast varying
environment.
Recently, downlink channel estimation through uplink train-
ing is proposed by taking consideration of the identical angular
parameters between the uplink and downlink propagation en-
vironments [12]-[15]. For example, [12] reconstructs downlink
channel covariance matrices by extracting the angle parameters
through uplink training. Moreover, the channel dimension is
greatly decreased in the angular domain so that the computa-
tional complexity is reduced. However, the channel variation in
time domain has not been characterized in the angular domain,
and the extension from channel estimation to prediction is
difficult.
Although the uplink/downlink channels are not reciprocal
due to the difference of carrier frequencies, both links experi-
ence the same propagation environment with common physical
paths, as shown in Fig. 1. Exploring the physical paths, each
of them can be represented by three components: fading
coefficient, direction of arrival (DOA)/direction of departure
(DOD) and time delay, as shown in Fig.2. It is clear that
both uplink and downlink channel matrix can be obtained
if these three components on multiple paths are estimated.
Fortunately, on each path, the uplink DOA is exactly the same
as the downlink DOD, and the time delay as well as fading
coefficient is almost the same when the uplink and downlink
frequencies are not significantly different1 [18].
Accordingly, we propose a downlink channel prediction
scheme for FDD mMIMO systems. Firstly, the uplink fading
coefficients, steering matrix (consisting of the DOA informa-
tion) and time delays of the multiple paths are respectively
estimated through pilot transmission. Then, their counterparts
in the downlink channel matrix are calculated. Specifically,
the fading coefficients are fast varying, thus tracking and
prediction is carried out to obtain their real time values. Under
the far filed assumption [19], the moving distance of a mobile
user within a short time is much smaller than its distance
to the BS. Thus, the steering matrix is changing slowly,
and it is obtained leveraging the downlink frequency and the
DODs, which is the same as the uplink DOAs. Similarly, the
uplink time delays are directly used since they are independent
from both time and frequency. Finally, the predicted downlink
channel matrix is calculated.
1 In fact, the carrier frequency has an impact on the fading coefficient, and
this statement is only true when the uplink and downlink frequencies are not
significantly different.
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of Selected Topics in Signal Processing
2

TABLE I
1
Variables for the FDD mMIMO channel prediction.
Path 1 Scatterer
2 Variables Descriptions
Na Number of antennas at the BS
Path 2 Nu Number of served users
3 Scatterer Np Number of paths
Path N p
v Ns The received signal length
l Antenna spacing at the BS
y(t) ∈ CNa ×1 Received signal vector at the BS
Vector of uplink channel
hup (t) ∈ CNa ×1
Na impulse response
Scatterer The predicted vector of downlink
h̃down (t) ∈ CNa ×1
channel impulse response
Fig. 1: Uplink and downlink transmissions experience the v(t) ∈ CNa ×1 Noise vector
same scattering environment. V(t) ∈ CNa ×Ns Noise matrix
s(t) ∈ C Transmitted signal
S ∈ CNp ×Ns Matrix of transmitted signal
d(t) The unit step function
Frequency/Time
θnp ∈ [0, π] The DOA/DOD of the np -th path
independent
τnp ∈ R The time delay of the np -th path
Time delay fnp ∈ C The fading coefficient of the np -th path
f(t) ∈ CNp ×1 Fading coefficients vector
F ∈ CNp ×Ns Fading coefficients matrix
aup (θnp ) Uplink steering vector of the np -th path
adown (θnp ) Downlink steering vector of the np -th path
Path Aup ∈ CNa ×Np Uplink steering matrix
Adown ∈ CNa ×Np Downlink steering matrix
The Vandermonde matrix
C ∈ CNp ×Np
associated with time delays
Fading coefficient DOA/DOD λup The uplink wave length
λdown The downlink wave length
Time-varying Frequency/Time fmax The maximum Doppler frequency
independent χ The forgetting factor (FF)
NIEP Interval of effective prediction
Fig. 2: Each path can be characterized by its fading
coefficient, DOA/DOD, and time delay.
Section II, the FDD mMIMO system model and multipath
channel model are demonstrated. The uplink channel param-
It should be noted that, by decomposing the channel matrix eters estimation with fading coefficients tracking is presented
into three parts, the computation complexity to obtain the in Section III. In Section IV, the downlink channel prediction
decomposed components are determined by the number of scheme is explained, then the computational complexity anal-
physical paths, which is generally much smaller than the ysis and simulation results are provided in Section V. Finally,
number of antennas. Therefore, the computational complexity conclusions are drawn in Section VI.
for uplink channel estimation is greatly reduced. In addition, a
recursive least square (RLS) algorithm with variable forgetting II. FDD M MIMO S YSTEM M ODEL
factor (FF) is proposed to track the fading coefficient, where In this section, we first present the FDD mMIMO transmis-
the FF is optimized according to the channel variation, thus sion model. Then, the multipath channel matrix is character-
low complexity prediction can be realized. Furthermore, a ized by steering matrix, fading coefficients, and time delays.
first Taylor (FIT) prediction model is adopted so that the
computation is more efficient. Altogether, the proposed chan-
nel prediction scheme makes a real time solution for its low A. The Transmission Model
complexity. We consider a single-cell FDD mMIMO system. There is
Notation: In this paper, we use boldface lowercase and one BS equipped with a uniform linear antenna array (ULA)
uppercase letters to represent vector and matrix respectively. comprising Na antennas, which serves Nu single-antenna
AT and A† denote the transpose and pseudo-inverse of matrix users, as shown in Fig.3. In the uplink transmission, the
A, respectively. diag(f) denotes a matrix which diagonalizes received signal vector at the BS is given as
the vector f. a ∈ C and a ∈ R denote that a is a complex
ymulti = Hmulti s + v, (1)
variable and a real variable, respectively. We use dF to denote
the discrete fourier transform of vector d.  and à represent where y = [y1 , y2 , · · · , yNa ]T ∈ CNa ×1 , the vector s =
the estimation and prediction of matrix A , respectively. The [s1 , s2 , · · · , sNu ]T represents the transmitted signals of Nu
definitions of variables in this paper are given in table I. users, and v = [v1 , v2 , · · · , vNa ]T ∈ CNa ×1 is the vector of
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In complex-valued additive white Gaussian noise, each element

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3

between the user and the BS can be characterized by its fading

coefficient, DOA, as well as the time delay. Furthermore,
1 2 3 Na according to the far-field assumption, the channel impulse
response can be written as [19]
Np
X
h(t) = fnp (t)a(θnp )d(t − τnp ), (4)
np =1

where d(t) ∈ C is the pulse shaping function, and it is typically

1 the convolution of transmitting and receiving filters. In this
Nu way,
 we characterize
the np -th path by the parameter set
fnp (t), θnp , τnp .
Traditionally, the channel reciprocity assumption is widely
Nu - 1 used to reduce the pilot overhead in TDD systems. The pilots
2 BS
are transmitted in the uplink and the estimated CSI is then
feedback in the reverse link [20], [21]. However, in FDD
systems, the channel reciprocity is invalid due to the difference
between uplink and downlink frequencies. Fortunately, the
Fig. 3: The single-cell FDD mMIMO system with Na scatterers stay unchanged, and the underlying physical paths
antennas and Nu users. are the same. Namely, the DOAs and DODs are the same,
the fading coefficients as well as the time delays are also
reciprocal. The reciprocity of physical paths can be leveraged
of which is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) to estimate the downlink channel according to the uplink CSI.
following CN (0, σ 2 ). Hmulti = [h1 , h2 , · · · , hNu ] ∈ CNa ×Nu Proposition 1. The downlink CSI can be calculated by the
is the channel matrix, where hnu represents the vector of uplink DOAs, fading coefficients, and time delays of multiple
channel response between the nu -th user and the BS. For an paths.
FDD mMIMO system, since different mobile terminals are
Proof : Denote Aup = aup (θn1 ), · · · , aup (θNp ) ∈ CNa ×Np
 
assigned different frequencies, the received signal belonging
to each user is orthogonal. In consequence, there is no multi- as the uplink steering matrix. Observing (3), the steering vector
user interference so that the received signals of each user can is determined by the direction and carrier frequency of the
be easily separated. Hereafter, we focus on a single user and waveform. Thus, the uplink DOA information can be directly
the user index is omitted for simplicity. used as the downlink DOD information. At the moment t, the
At the BS, the equivalent baseband received signal vector calculation for the downlink steering matrix is given as
y(t) at sampling moment t can be expressed as [19]
 
1 ··· 1
down down
Np −jωn1 −jωNp
 e ··· e
 
X 
y(t) = fnp (t)aup (θnp )s(t − τnp ) + v(t), (2) Adown =  .. .. .. , (5)
. . .

np =1 
down

down
−j(Na−1)ω
where Np is the number of physical paths, s(t) is the trans- e−j(Na−1)ω n1 ···e Np

mitted signal, fnp (t) is the time-varying fading coefficient where ωndown
p
= λ2πl
down
cos θnp , and λdown is the wavelength corre-
associated with the np -th path at moment t, θnp ∈ [0, π] sponding to the downlink carrier frequency. Then, substituting
denotes the DOA of the np -th path, and τnp ∈ R is the (5) into (4), the downlink channel response can be obtained
time delay of the np -th path. Furthermore, aup (θnp ) ∈ CNa ×1 as
Np
represents the uplink steering vector, and for the ULA, it is X
given by [19] hdown (t) = fnp (t)adown (θnp )d(t − τnp ), (6)
 T np =1
up up
−jωn −jωn (Na −1)
aup (θnp ) = 1, e p ,··· ,e p , (3) where adown (θnp ) is the np -th column of matrix Adown .

where ωnupp = 2πl

λup cos θnp , l is the antenna spacing of ULA,
C. Channel Variation
and λup is the uplink wavelength. We consider a time-varying mMIMO channel assuming that
the variation is caused by the user’s mobility while the BS is
T
static. We denotes f(t) = f1 (t), f2 (t), · · · , fNp (t)) as the
B. Multipath Propagation
fading coefficients vector at moment t.
A multipath channel model is considered. It is assumed that For the time-varying channel, the fading coefficient is
there are Np independent physical propagation paths between modeled as a function of time [22]. According to the FIT
each user and the BS due to the finite scattering environment. model, we have
In general, Np is determined by the scattering environment
and is independent of the number of antennas. Each path f(t + ∆t) = f(t) + f(1) (t)∆t + w(t), (7)

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4

Time START

Block 1 Block Nb Uplink pilot transmission

Ns Nt N pred Ns Nt N pred

i-pilot t-pilot uplink data i-pilot t-pilot uplink data Uplink Uplink channel estimation
Frequency

Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ
downlink data downlink data Downlink

Uplink steering matrix Rough fading coefficients

Ⅰ： Parameters estimation
Uplink delays
Ⅱ： Fading coefficients tracking
Ⅲ： Fading coefficients prediction DOAs extraction Fading coefficients tracking
Downlink delays
Fig. 4: Timing of transmission sequence and signal Steering matrix calculation Fading coefficients prediction
processing.

where ∆t is an appropriately close neighborhood of the Downlink CSI prediction

moment t, and f(1) (t) is the first order derivative at moment t.
Moreover, since the variations of the DOAs and time delays END
are generally much slower than that of the fading coefficients,
thus the DOAs and time delays can be considered constant for Fig. 5: The flowchart of the FDD mMIMO channel
a period of time, given as prediction scheme.

θnp (t + ∆t) = θnp (t), (8)

τnp (t + ∆t) = τnp (t). (9)
The Na Nb × Ns received i-pilot signal matrix for Nb blocks
This assumption is reasonable if ∆t is chosen in accordance is given as
with the mobile speed and multipath geometry.  
y1 (1) y1 (2) · · · y1 (Ns )
 y2 (1) y2 (2) · · · y2 (Ns ) 
D. Timing of Transmission Sequence Y=

.. .. .. .. .

(10)
 . . . . 
We design an uplink transmission sequence consisting of
yNb (1) yNb (2) · · · yNb (Ns )
initial pilots (i-pilot) for parameters estimation, tracking pilots
(t-pilot) for fading coefficients tracking, and data sequence, According to (2) and (6), Y can be rewritten as
as shown in Fig. 4. In the i-pilot transmission stage, the Ns -
Y = HS + V. (11)
length pilots are transmitted to obtain an initial estimation of
three components. During the t-pilot transmission stage, the where
Nt -length pilots are transmitted for fading coefficients tacking, 
h1 (0) h1 (T ) ··· h1 ((Np − 1)T )

its main purpose is to obtain real-time and accurate fading  h2 (0) h2 (T ) ··· h2 ((Np − 1)T ) 
coefficients. Then, the variable fading coefficients obtained H=

.. .. .. ..


by the tracking stage are used for prediction in the data  . . . . 
transmission stage. hNb (0) hNb (T ) · · · hNb ((Np − 1)T )
Accordingly, the downlink channel prediction for time-
∈ CNa Nb ×Np is the matrix of channel response, and
varying FDD mMIMO can be realized as follows: 1. uplink  
training to obtain the channel components; 2. uplink and down- s(1) s(2) · · · s(Ns )
link conversion by the path reciprocity; 3. fading coefficients  0 s(1) · · · s(Ns − 1) 
S= .
 
tracking by the variation model (7); 4. downlink CSI prediction . . ..
 .. .. .. 
. 
according to (6). The flowchart of the proposed scheme is
0 0 · · · s(Ns − Np + 1)
shown in Fig.5.
∈ CNp ×Ns is the matrix of transmitted signals.
III. U PLINK C HANNEL E STIMATION AND T RACKING For simplicity, it is assumed that the time delays are on
In this section, the fading coefficients, steering matrix, the sampling grids. Then, substituting (4) into (11), Y can be
and time delays are estimated through uplink training, then decomposed as
tracking is carried out on the time-varying fading coefficients.
 
Aup diag(F(1))
A. Channel Parameters Estimation  Aup diag(F(2)) 
 T
Y=  D S + V, (12)

..
The channel matrix has been decomposed into three com-  . 
ponents, fading coefficients, steering matrix, and time delays. Aup diag(F(Nb ))

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where F(nb ) denotes the nth

b row of matrix F, and where C ∈ CNp ×Np is a Vandermonde matrix, given as
 
···
 
f1,1 f1,2 · · · f1,Np 1 1 1
 f2,1 f2,2 · · · f2,Np   φτ 1 φτ 2 ··· φτNp 
F= . C= .. .. .. ,
   
.. .. ..  ..
 .. . . .   . . . . 
(Np −1)τ1 (Np −1)τ2 (Np −1)τNp
fNb ,1 fNb ,2 · · · fNb ,Np φ φ ··· φ
is the fading coefficients matrix, where φ = e−j2π/Np .

v1 (1) v1 (2) · · · v1 (Ns )
 Defining HF as
 v2 (1) v2 (2) · · · v2 (Ns ) 
HF = ĤBDFT diag(d0F )† , (18)
V= .
 
.. .. ..
 ..

. . . substituting (15) into (18) then using BDFT diag(d0F )† =

vNb (1) vNb (2) · · · vNb (Ns ) BTDFT (diag(d0F )† )T , HF can be rewritten as
is the noise matrix.
HF = [F  Aup ](diag(d0F )† BDFT D)T + WF . (19)
  Using (17), (19) can then be rewritten as [14]
d(−τ1 ) ··· d(−τNp )
 d(T − τ1 ) ··· d(T − τNp )  HF = [F  Aup ]CT + WF . (20)
D=
 
.. .. .. 
 . . .  The three parameters matrices Aup , F and C in (20) respec-
d((Np − 1)T − τ1 ) · · · d((Np − 1)T − τNp ) tively represent the uplink steering matrix, fading coefficients
is the sampled delay matrix. matrix, and time delays matrix. They can be obtained by
solving the optimization problem, given as
The received signal matrix Y can be written in a compact
form using the Khatri-Rao product, i.e., min kHF − [F  Aup ]CT k2 . (21)
Aup ,C,F

Y = [F  Aup ] DT S + V. (13) In the next, the ALS algorithm is considered, which decom-
The Khatri-Rao product of F and Aup is defined as the Nb Na × poses the optimization problem as three sub-problems. Each
Np matrix, given as parameter matrix is estimated as if the other two are already
known. In this way, the three parameters are estimated alter-
F  Aup = f1 ⊗ a1 :: f2 ⊗ a2 :: · · · :: fNp ⊗ aNp ,
 
(14) nately until the result converges. Therein, the ALS solution in
niter -th iteration is given by
where fnp and anp denote the np th column of the matrix F and  i†
Aup , respectively, and ⊗ represents the element-wise vector T
h

 Ĉ (n iter ) = F̂(niter − 1)  Âup (n iter − 1) ĤF
product.



T
h i†
Then, a rough channel estimation is obtained by the least F̂ (niter ) = Âup (niter − 1)  Ĉ(niter ) X̂ (22)

 i†
square method (LS), given as T
 h
 Â (niter ) = Ĉ(niter )  F̂(niter ) Ẑ,

up
Ĥ = YS† = [F  Aup ]DT + W, (15)
where Âup , Ĉ, and F̂ are the temporary ALS estimates, niter ∈
where W = VS† ∈ CNa Nb ×Np . {1, 2, · · · } is the number of ALS iterations, and
Proposition 2. Uplink fading coefficients, steering matrix, and X̂ = (Aup  C)FT + Ŵ, (23)
time delays can be obtained through the estimated channel
matrix Ĥ, by using the alternating least square (ALS) method.
Proof : In order to ensure that the three parameters can be
separated, we employ the fact that Fourier transform maps a
constant time delay to a constant phase shift. Specifically, we
start sampling at t = 0 and collect samples during Np symbol
periods, the sampled vector of the pulse shaping function d(t)
T
can be written as d0 = [d(0), d(T ), · · · , d((Np − 1)T )] ∈
Np ×1
C . Then, a discrete Fourier transform (DFT) is carried
out on d0 , yielding d0F = BDFT d0 , where BDFT is the Np -
point DFT matrix. Thus, the DFT of the sampled delay matrix
D is given as
DF = [d1F , d2F , · · · , dNp F ].
Eq.(16) is then rewritten as
DF = diag(d0F )C,
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Ẑ = (C  F)AT
up + Ŵ. (24)
Proposition 3. The ALS algorithm converges to a unique
solution and its cost function converges to the noise power
with sufficient iterations.
Proof : Proof of proposition 3 is given in Appendix A.
B. Fading Coefficients Tracking
Based on the fading coefficient variation model in (7), we
use a recursive least square (RLS) channel tracking scheme
with variable forgetting factor (FF) to obtain the fast-varying
fading coefficients information. Note that we track only the
(16) fading coefficients, whose dimension is the number of physical
paths, i.e., Np . Therefore, the computational complexity is
significantly reduced compared to tracking the channel matrix
(17) as a whole.
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Given (2), the discrete received signal vector at sampling we can observe that each column of matrix Âup contains the
moment t = nT can be represented as DOA of one path. For column np of Âup , we compute the
Np average phase offset of the antenna array, given as
X
y[nT ] = fnp (nT )aup(θnp )s(nT − τnp )+ v(nT ). (25) Nr
!
1 X Aup(na, np)
np =1 Mθ̂n = ln , (29)
p Na − 1 n =2 Aup(na − 1, np)
a
Remind that we assume the time delays are on the sampling
grids. For simplicity, the sampling moment is represented by where ˆAup(na, np) represents the (na, np)-th element of the
its integer part n. Then, omitting the noise, any row of the uplink steering matrix. Then the cosine function of the esti-
discrete received signal is given as mated DOA is given as
y[n] = f[n]T(a ⊗ s(n)), (26) λ
.
cos(θ̂np ) =Mθ̂n (30)
2πl p
where ā denotes the corresponding row of the uplink steer-
Then, substituting (32) into (5), the downlink steering matrix
ing matrix, s[n] = [s[n], s[n − 1], · · · , s[n − Np + 1]] is the
can be calculated accordingly.
transmitted signal vector.
For f[n] tracking, it is obtained by solving the minimization Similarly, matrix C containing the time delay information
problem, given as [23] is obtained as
 
1 1 ··· 1
f̂[n] = arg min {J[n]} , (27)  φτ 1 φτ 2 ··· φτNp 
f[n]
Ĉ =  .. .. . ,
 
.. ..
where J[n] =
Pn Qn 2 . . .
p=j χ[p]e [j] is the cost function,
 
j=1
Qn T φ(Np −1)τ1 φ(Np −1)τ2 ··· φ(Np −1)τNp
p=j χ[p] = χ[n]χ[n−1] · · · χ[j], e[j] = y[j]−f[j] (ā⊗s[j])
is the error function. In the cost function, χ[p] is the FF, It is clear that each column of matrix Ĉ contains the time
0 < χ[p] < 1. As the channel changes randomly, the FF is also delay of each path. For the np -th column of Ĉ, the following
variable, which makes the tracking scheme more adaptable calculation is carried out, given as
[24].  
 T T Np
Define B[n] = b [n], bT [n − 1], · · · , bT [Np − 1] , 1 X Ĉ(i, np )
where bT [n] = ā ⊗ s[n]. The solution to (27) is obtained as Mτ̂np = ln  , (31)
Np − 1 i=2 Ĉ(i − 1, np )
−1
f̂(n) = (BT [n]Λ[n]B[n]) BT [n]Λ[n]ȳ[n], (28)
where Ĉ(i, np ) represents the (i, np )-th element of matrix Ĉ.
T
wheren ȳ[n] = [y[n], y[n − 1], · · · , y[Np − 1]]o , and Λ[n] = Then the estimated time delay of the np -th path is
Qn
diag χ[n], χ[n]χ[n − 1], · · · , p=Np −1 χ[p] is a diagonal Np
matrix consisting of the variable FFs. τ̂np = ln(Mτ̂np ) . (32)
2π
Proposition 4. The FF is variable according to the channel
variation and the optimal FF can be derived under the fading
B. Fading Coefficients Prediction
coefficient variation model in (7).
Proof : Proof of proposition 4 is given in Appendix B. During the channel tracking stage, we obtain fading coef-
ficients within the sampling period. Remind that according
to the FIT prediction model, the fading coefficients can be
IV. D OWNLINK C HANNEL P REDICTION expressed as

In this section, we first extract the DODs information of the f(t + ∆t) = f(t) + f(1) (t)∆t + w(t), (33)
physical propagation paths. Then we develop a fading coeffi- where f(1) denotes the first order derivative at moment t, and
cients prediction scheme. Thus, the downlink channel impulse w(t) is the additional error. Denoting fnp (t) as the np -th
response can be reconstructed by the downlink steering matrix, (1)
element of f(t). Once fˆnp (t) and fˆnp (t) have been obtained,
time delays, and predicted fading coefficients.
we can predict fading coefficients by (33). Let fˆnp (t) = a0 and
(1)
fˆnp (t) = a1 for simplicity, the predicted fading coefficient at
A. Downlink Parameters Calculation a future moment t + ∆t is given as

In Section III, we estimate the uplink steering matrix Âup f˜(t + ∆t) = a0 + a1 ∆t. (34)
containing the DOAs information, given as Denoting fˆ(n1 ), fˆ(n2 ), · · · , fˆ(Nt ) as the fading coefficients
 
1 1 ··· 1 obtained during the tracking stage, a0 and a1 are determined
up up up
 by solving the minimization problem, given as
−jωn −jω −jω
 e e n2
··· e N p
 1

Âup = 
 .. .. .. .. , Nt 2
. . . .
 X ˆ ˜(nt )

up up −j(Nr −1)ωNp up
 hâ0 , â1 i = arg min f (nt ) − f . (35)
e−j(Nr −1)ωn1 e−j(Nr −1)ωn2 · · · e a0 ,a1 ∈R n =1
t

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of Selected Topics in Signal Processing
7

Algorithm 1 Downlink FDD mMIMO channel prediction

Input:
i-pilots, t-pilots, and the received signals during the pilots Scatterer
transmission; Path n p
Output: yn
The predicted downlink CSI; v p

1: Obtain an uplink channel matrix by LS following (15);

Fig. 6: Angle between the direction of scatterer and the
2: Parameterize the channel matrix to DOAs, time delays,
moving direction of the user.
and fading coefficients and then extract the parameters by
ALS method according to (20)-(24);
3: Track the time-varying fading coefficients by RLS with (1)
The variation of ln(fnp (t)) during time interval ∆t is given
optimal FF according to (28);
as
4: Predict the time-varying fading coefficients by FIT pre-
diction model according to (33)-(38); ∆ ln(fn1p (t)) = ln(fn(1)
p
(t + ∆t)) − ln(fn(1)
p
(t)). (42)
5: Predict the downlink CSI using the fading coefficients,
steering matrix, and time delays according to (5) and (33); Substituting (41) to (42) and then get the absolute value, we
have  
∆ ln(fn(1) )  = β∆t, (43)
 
6: return The predicted uplink and downlink CSI; p

where
β = 2πfmax cos ψnp . (44)
Employing the linear regression method, the problem in (29)
is transformed into solving the linear equations, given as Lemma 1. If ln x − ln y = δ, then

 PNt PNt  PNt x − y = (eδ − 1)y. (45)

  ˆ 
nt =1 1 nt =1 gnt â0 nt =1 f (nt )
  = , Proof: If ln x − ln y = δ, we can get
PNt PNt 2 â1
PNt ˆ x
nt =1 gnt nt =1 gnt nt =1 gnt f (nt ) eln(x)−ln(y) = , (46)
(36) y
where gnt = t(nt )−t(n0 ), and the solution to (36) is obtained the above equation can be rewritten as
as
eln(x)−ln(y) = eδ ,
PNt ˆ PNt PNt
Nt nt =1 gnt f (nt ) − nt =1 gnt nt =1 fˆ(nt ) (47)
â1 = PN PNt , (37)
Nt ntt=1 gn2 t − ( nt =1 gnt )2
2 therefore, we have x − y = (eδ − 1)y.
and PNt PN According to (42) and Lemma 1, we can get the variation
nt =1 fˆ(nt ) − â1 ntt=1 gnt (1)
of fnp (t) during the time interval ∆t, given as
â0 = . (38)
Nt
Proposition 5. The interval of effective prediction (IEP) is fn(1)
p
(t + ∆t) − fn(1)
p
(t) = (eβ∆t − 1)fn(1)
p
(t). (48)
determined by the maximum Doppler frequency as well as the
Substituting (40) into (48), the variation in (43) can be
moving direction of the user.
obtained as
Proof : We have modeled the fading coefficients as a com- 
 (1)

fnp (t + ∆t) − fn(1) (t) = (eβ∆t − 1)2πGnp fmax cos ψnp .

plex value, and further we have extracted the time delays from p

the channel, then, the np -th fading coefficient can be written (49)
as In the practical system, a threshold value  can be used,
fnp (t) = Gnp ej(φ0 +2πfmax t cos ψnp ) , (39) namely, (40) is regarded as a constant when the variation of
(1)
fnp is smaller than . Thus, the interval of effective prediction
where fmax = vc fup is the maximum Doppler frequency, Gnp (IEP), denoted by NIEP is determined as
is the attenuation of the np -th path, φ0 is the initial phase of  
 (1)
the waveform. And ψnp is the angle between the direction of fnp (t + NIEP ) − fn(1) (t) = . (50)

p
a scatterer and the moving direction of the user, as shown in
(1)
Fig. 6. Then fnp (t) it is calculated as Substituting (49) into (50), we have
 
1 
fn(1) (t) = 2πjGnp fmax cos ψnp ej(φ0 +2πfmax t cos ψnp ) . (40) NIEP = ln 1 + . (51)
p
β 2πGnp fmax cos ψnp
For mathematical convenience, we take the logarithm of (40),
It is then clear that NIEP is determined by the maximum
given as
Doppler frequency and the moving direction of the user.
Therefore, a higher user velocity toward the direction of the
ln(fn(1)
p
(t)) = ln(2πjGnp fmax cos ψnp ) scatterer will lead to a smaller NIEP . The analysis on the other
(41)
+ j(φ0 + 2πfmax t cos ψnp ). paths is similar, and the derivation is omitted for brevity.

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TABLE II: Simulation Parameters

4
Na =32
Path 1 2 3 4 5 Na =64
3.5
θ π/17 π/11 π/9 π/7 π/4 Lower bound

τ (ns) 0 1.1 2.5 3.4 4.7 3

power (dB) 0 -8 -10 -12 -18

RMSE
2.5

2
So far, we have obtained the downlink steering matrix, fad-
ing coefficients and time delays, thus the downlink CSI can be 1.5
obtained by (5). In summary, the proposed downlink channel
prediction scheme for FDD mMIMO system is realized by the 1

steps shown in Algorithm 1. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

The number of iterations

Fig. 7: RMSE versus the number of iterations using ALS

V. S IMULATION R ESULTS algorithm, σ 2 = 1.

In this section, the performance of the proposed channel

prediction scheme for FDD mMIMO system is verified by
100 Na =32
computer simulations. Then, the complexity of the proposed Fading coefficient N =64
a

scheme is analyzed.
The parameters for simulations are as follows. At the BS 10-1
side, the number of ULA antennas is 64, and the antenna
Time delay
separation is 15cm. There are 16 single-antenna users. Suppose NMSE

that, the length of a frame is 220. In the uplink transmitting

10-2
sequence, the lengths of the i-pilots and t-pilots are 20 and
40, respectively, while the length of uplink data is 160. DOA
Following [18], taking one user as an example, the uplink
10-3
carrier frequency is fup = 900M Hz, and the downlink carrier
frequencies are set as fdown,1 = 950M Hz, and fdwon,2 = 0 5 10 15 20 25
980M Hz, respectively. The velocity of the user is 20m/s. The SNR(dB)
number of physical paths is 5, and the DOA distribution is set
Fig. 8: Steady-state NMSE of fading coefficients, time
by the WINNER II channel model [26], as shown by table II.
delays and DOAs.
In addition, elements of matrices Aup , F and C are randomly
generated by standard Gaussian distribution to initialize the
ALS algorithm.
Firstly, the performance of channel parameter estimation is
To evaluate the accuracy of channel parameters estimation, evaluated by the RMSE of the channel matrix elements, given
tracking and prediction, the root mean square error (RMSE) as v
and normalized mean square error (NMSE) are used as the u
u 1 X Ns  2
performance indicators. Taking the DOA estimation as an RMSEH = t ĤF (ns ) − HF (ns ) .
example, the RMSE and NMSE are obtained as Ns n =1
s
v
u
u 1 X Np  2 The results with Na = 32 and Na = 64 are shown in Fig.
RMSEθnp = t θ̂np − θnp , (52) 7. Remind that we have proved the convergent property of
Np n =1
p ALS parameters estimation and derived a lower bound for
and the RMSE in Proposition 3. The lower bound, i.e., the noise
v
u Np
!2 power, is also drawn in Fig. 7 as a reference. It is observed that,
u 1 X θ̂np
u
the instantaneous RMSE of the channel parameter estimation
NMSEθnp =t −1 , (53)
Np n =1 θnp decreases as the iteration increases, and a faster convergent
p
speed is achieved by a larger number of antennas, i.e., the
respectively. spatial diversity is leveraged to speed up the convergence.
In addition, the RMSE lower bound is obtained, particularly,
within 70 and 60 iterations for Na = 32 and Na = 64,
A. Accuracy of Uplink Estimation and Tracking respectively.
Then, the instantaneous and steady-state NMSE of the
As discussed above, the uplink transmitting sequence con- estimated fading coefficients, DOAs as well as time delays
sists of three stages. Correspondingly, the error analysis will are testified respectively, and the results are shown in Fig. 8.
be performed respectively. Note that, the RMSE in Fig. 7 represents the estimation error

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100 10-1
Traditional RLS
Modified RLS [25]
10-1 Proposed RLS with optimal FF
10-2

10-2
10-3
NMSE

NMSE
10-3
10-4

-4
10

10-5
FIT model, proposed optimal-FF-RLS
10-5 FIT model, traditional RLS
AR(1) model, proposed optimal-FF-RLS
10-6 AR(1) model, traditional RLS
10-6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
The number of iterations Prediction length

Fig. 9: The instantaneous NMSE of the fading coefficients Fig. 11: Prediction NMSE versus prediction length
tracking, SNR=10 dB.

100

10-1
0
10
10-2

BER
10-3
10-2
Uplink,f =900MHz,perfect channel
up

10-4 Downlink,f down =950MHz,perfect channel

NMSE

Downlink,f down =980MHz,perfect channel

Uplink,f =900MHz,predicted channel
10-4 up
10-5 Downlink,f down =950MHz,predicted channel
Downlink,f =980MHz,predicted channel
down

10-6
Traditional RLS 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10-6 Modified RLS [25] SNR(dB)
Proposed optimal-FF-RLS

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Fig. 12: The BER with perfect and predicted CSI.
SNR(dB)

Fig. 10: The steady-state NMSE of the fading coefficients

tracking.
of the channel matrix element, which is a result of the errors
from its three components. From Fig. 8, it is further observed
that, the error of the fading coefficients contributes most to
the estimation error. Therefore, accurate fading coefficient
tracking is vitally important.
To study the tracking ability, we compare three tracking
algorithms, namely the traditional RLS, a modified RLS [27],
and the proposed RLS with optimal FF. The initial FFs of
the three RLS algorithms are all set to 0.9, and the relaxation
factor of the modified RLS is 0.001. The instantaneous and
steady-state NMSE results are shown in Figs. 9 and 10,
respectively. It can be observed that the instantaneous NMSE
of the proposed RLS with optimal FF decreases much faster
than the traditional and modified RLS methods, and its steady
state NMSE is smaller than the other two methods. Therefore,
the proposed algorithm is superior in terms of the tracking
ability. Furthermore, comparing the results in Figs. 9 and 8,
the accuracy of fading coefficients is significantly improved
during the tracking procedure.
B. Accuracy of Downlink prediction
The NMSE of the downlink channel prediction is shown in
Fig. 11. For comparison, we testify the performance of the
FIT model and the widely used auto-regressive (AR) model,
given as fnp (t) = cfnp (t − 1) + w(t). Since the FIT model
uses the first order polynomial, the first order AR (AR(1)) is
used for fair comparison. As shown in Fig. 11, we can see that
the FIT model provides a better performance than the AR(1)
model, and its alliance with the proposed RLS tracking with
optimal FF brings a more significant improvement.
In the next, the impact of the prediction error on the
downlink bit error rate (BER) performance is studied, where
binary phase shifting keying (BPSK) modulated signals are
transmitted by the maximum ratio transmission. As aforemen-
tioned, the downlink frequencies are set as fdown,1 = 950MHz
and fdown,2 = 980MHz, while the uplink training frequency is
900MHz. It can be seen that, for fdown,1 = 950MHz, the BER
using the predicted CSI is almost the same as that with the
perfect CSI. For fdown,2 = 980MHz, a slightly performance
degradation is observed when compared with the perfect case.
It can be inferred that the prediction error will increase as
the difference between the uplink and downlink frequencies
increases, since the uplink/downlink fading coefficient differs
on each physical path. However, channel prediction saves the

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108
The number of multiplications
6
10
104
102
100
32
The number of antennas at the BS
Fig. 13: The computational complexity of the proposed
downlink channel prediction scheme, where Niter is observed
from the simulations.
training overhead and greatly improves the efficiency, thus the
throughput can be significantly increased even with a slight
BER degradation.
C. Computational Complexity
Computational complexity is important for the mMIMO
applications, and real time CSI prediction is necessary. In
this section, we discuss the computational complexity of
the proposed downlink channel prediction scheme, which is
approximated by the number of multiplications. Note that,
the proposed scheme consists of the parameters estimation
stage, fading coefficients tracking stage, and prediction stage.
Thus, the computational complexity of each stage is analyzed,
denoted as Cest , Ctra and Cpre respectively.
First, we analyze the computational complexity of parame-
ters estimation using ALS algorithm. Here the computational
complexity of the rough channel estimation is neglected,
since it happens only once in the first i-pilot transmission.
The Np -point DFT requires Np2 multiplications. Subsequently,
taking the inverse of diagonal matrix diag(d0F ) and then
multiplying the channel matrix require 6Np and 8Na Np Ns
multiplications, respectively. Next, each ALS iteration consists
of 8Na (5Ns Np2 + 2Np3 ) + 16Ns Np2 + 12Np3 + 24Np2 + 18Np
multiplications. Therefore, the number of multiplications for
the parameters estimation is given by
Cest = 8Na (5Nb Niter Np2 + 2Niter Np3 + Nb Np )
+ 12Niter Np3 + 24Niter Np2 + 18Niter Np
+ 16Nb Niter Np3 + Np2 + 6Np .
Then, we calculate the computational complexity for fading
coefficients tracking. Since the DOAs and time delays are
assumed unchanged during the t-pilot transmission, the com-
putational complexity of this part can be significantly reduced
when the number of antennas is larger than the number of
paths. The computational complexity of the fading coefficients
tracking stage only relates to the number of paths Np and the
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number of antennas Na . The computational complexity of the
tracking stage is approximated as
Ctra = Na Np + 2Np 3 + 6Np 2 + 2Np . (55)
It is clear that the computational complexity of the proposed
algorithm is much lower than that of the traditional method,
LS especially when Np is small.
Proposed method, Np=5
Proposed method, Np=10 Next, we analyze the computational complexity of the
prediction stage. The prediction complexity is determined by
the number of paths Np and the prediction length Npre , which
is dominated by the calculation of â0 and â1 using the linear
regression method, given as
48 64
Cpre = 2(Np + Npre ). (56)
Therefore, the complexity of the proposed channel predic-
tion scheme is obtained by summing up Cest , Ctra , and Cpre ,
given as
C = 8Na (5Nb Niter Np2 + 2Niter Np3 + Na Np )
+ 12Niter Np3 + 24Niter Np2 + 18Niter Np
(57)
+ 16Nb Niter Np3 + Np2 + 6Np
+ 2Np3 + Na Np + 2Npre .
In summary, the computational complexity of the proposed
FDD mMIMO channel prediction is listed in Table III. For
comparison, the complexity of the traditional LS method based
channel estimation is also listed, where the LS estimation is
obtained as
ĤLS = YS† , (58)
where
S† = (ST S)−1 ST . (59)
Eqs. (58) and (59) require Npilot Na2 and 12Npilot
3
multiplica-
tions respectively, and the computational complexity of the LS
method is given as
CLS = Npilot Na2 + 12Npilot
3
. (60)
Note that, in order to satisfy the orthogonality, the pilot length
Npilot is set to be Nu .
Comparing (57) with (60), it is clear that the computational
complexity of the proposed scheme is independent of the
number of antennas, thus is much smaller than the traditional
LS method, especially when Np  Na . We set the number
of paths to be Np = 5, 10 and the number of antennas to be
Na = 32, 48, 64, the computational complexities calculated by
(57) and (60) are shown in Fig. 13. It is observed that, as the
number of antennas increases, the proposed channel prediction
(54) scheme saves more and more computational complexity. E.g.,
when Na =64, two orders of magnitude reduction has been
obtained.
VI. C ONCLUSIONS
In this paper, the downlink FDD mMIMO transmission is
considered, and a channel prediction scheme has been pro-
posed. By parameterizing each propagation path as the fading
coefficient, DOA/DOD, and time delay, the uplink/downlink
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of Selected Topics in Signal Processing
11

TABLE III: Computational complexity

Computational Total Computational

Method Calculation
Complexity Complexity
Eqs (16)-(17) 8Na Np Nb + Np2 + 6Np
Proposed 8Na (5Nb Niter Np2 + 2Niter Np3 ) 8Na (5Nb Niter Np2 + 2Niter Np3 + Nb Np )
Eq. (22) +18Niter Np + 16Nb Niter Np3 +Niter Np3 + 24Niter Np2 + 18Niter Np
scheme +12Niter Np3 + 24Niter Np2 +16Nb Niter Np3 + 7Np2 + 10Np
Eq. (28) Na Np + 2Np 3 + 6Np 2 + 2Np +2Np3 + Na Np + 2Npre
Eqs (37)-(38) 2(Np + Npre )

−1 T
LS S† = ST S S 3
12Npilot 3
12Npilot + Npilot Na 2
Method ĤLS = YS† Npilot Na 2

physical reciprocity is leveraged, so that the three parameters
are obtained through uplink training and downlink predic-
tion is then calculated. Considering the fact that the chan-
nel variation is mainly caused by the fast varying fading
2 1 2
estimates of channel parameters and HF . According to (20)
the global optimal magnitude of the error function is
1
HF − [F  Aup ]CT
= kWF kF ,



coefficient, the proposed scheme consists of three stages: Np Na Nb F Np Na Nb
parameters estimation, fading coefficient tracking, and channel (A.4)
matrix prediction. In this way, the computational complexity Substituting (20) to (A.4), we have
of parameter estimation becomes independent of the number 1

2
of antennas. In addition, the FF used for channel tracking is
HF − [F  Aup ]CT
= σ 2 . (A.4)



Np Na Nb F
optimized to speed up the convergence, and a low-complexity
FIT model is adopted for prediction. As a result, the proposed A PPENDIX B
scheme is both spectrally and computationally efficient, which DERIVATION OF THE OPTIMAL FF
may facilitate the mMIMO application in 5G systems.
Given (7) and (28), we have
A PPENDIX A
T HE ERROR FUNCTION CONVERGES TO NOISE POWER f̂[n] = f[n] + R−1 (1)
BB [n] + Rα [n]f [n]
To prove this proposition, we define the error function of T (B.1)
the ALS algorithm after iteration nr as + R−1
BB [n]Ā [n]Λ[n](v̄[n] + ξ[n]),


2 where Rα [n] = BT [n]Λ[n]Dα [n]B[n], here Dα [n] =
ζ(nr ) =
HF − [F̂(nr )  Âup (nr )]Ĉ(nr )T
, (A.1)



F diag {0, −1, · · · , −(n − Np + 1)} is used for brevity. and
RBB = BT [n]Λ[n]B[n], The sum of v̄[n] and ξ[n] is the equiv-
In (22), we obtain the Ĉ(nr ) in the LS estimation, thereby we T
alent noise, where v̄[n] = [v[n], v[n − 1], · · · , v[Np − 1]]
have T
and ξ[n] = BT [n][∆[n], ∆[n − 1], · · · , ∆[Np − 1]] . The FF


2 can be obtained by solving the problem. We assume that

HF − [F̂(nr − 1)  Âup (nr − 1)]Ĉ(nr )T
the steadystate Âup [n] and Ĉ[n] is error free. Therefore, the



F


2 (A.2) channel estimation is evaluated by the MSE of f̂[n], given as
6
HF − [F̂(nr − 1)  Âup (nr − 1)]Ĉ(nr − 1)T
. [25]





2 
F
MSE[n] = E
f̂[n] − f[n]
, (B.2)



Thus, after the first iteration, the magnitude of the error 2
function is decreasing. Similarly, after nr iterations, we have


2 The term (f̂[n] − f[n]) can be rewritten as
ζ(nr ) =
HF − [F̂(nr )  Âup (nr )]Ĉ(nr )T



n o n o
F f̂[n] − f[n] = (E f̂[n] − f[n] ) + (f̂[n] − E f̂[n] ), (B.3)


2
6
HF − [F̂(nr )  Âup (nr − 1)]Ĉ(nr )T




F
substituting (B.3) into (B.2), the MSE is given as


2
n o
2
n o
2
6
HF − [F̂(nr − 1)  Âup (nr − 1)]Ĉ(nr )T




MSE[n] =
E f̂[n] − f[n]
+
E f̂[n] − f[n]
,





F 2 2


2 (B.4)
6
HF − [F̂(nr − 1)  Âup (nr − 1)]Ĉ(nr − 1)T



n o
F To evaluate (B.4), E f̂[n] has to be obtained at first, which
= ζ(nr − 1). equals to an expectationnovero(B.1). Since ξ[n] and v̄[n] are
(A.3) independent of B[n], E f̂[n] is given as
Hence, it is proved that the error function is decreasing. n o n o
The error function is actually the residual error between the E f̂[n] = f[n] + R−1 BB [n]R α E f (1)
[n] . (B.5)

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of Selected Topics in Signal Processing
12

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