How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused?

There are numerous lines of

evidence that converge to this conclusion.

Carbon Dioxide Increase. Carbon dioxide in our atmosphere has increased at an unprecedented rate in
the past 200 years. Not one data set collected over a long enough span of time shows otherwise. Mann
et al. (1999) compiled the past 900 years’ worth of temperature data from tree rings, ice cores, corals,
and direct measurements of the past few centuries, and the sudden increase of temperature of the past
century stands out like a sore thumb.

Melting Polar Ice Caps. The polar icecaps are thinning and breaking up at an alarming rate. In 2000, my
former graduate advisor Malcolm McKenna was one of the first humans to fly over the North Pole in
summer time and see no ice, just open water. The Arctic ice cap has been frozen solid for at least the
past 3 million years and maybe longer3, but now the entire ice sheet is breaking up so fast that by 2030
(and possibly sooner) less than half of the Arctic will be ice covered in the summer.

Melting Glaciers. Glaciers are all retreating at the highest rates ever documented. Many of those
glaciers, especially in the Himalayas, Andes, Alps, and Sierras, provide most of the freshwater that the
populations below the mountains depend upon—yet this fresh water supply is vanishing. Just think
about the percentage of world’s population in southern Asia (especially India) that depend on
Himalayan snowmelt for their fresh water.

Melting Glaciers. Glaciers are all retreating at the highest rates ever documented. Many of those
glaciers, especially in the Himalayas, Andes, Alps, and Sierras, provide most of the freshwater that the
populations below the mountains depend upon—yet this fresh water supply is vanishing. Just think
about the percentage of world’s population in southern Asia (especially India) that depend on
Himalayan snowmelt for their fresh water.

Sea Level Rise. All that melted ice eventually ends up in the ocean, causing sea level to rise, as it has
many times in the geologic past. At present, sea level is rising about 3–4 mm per year, more than ten
times the rate of 0.1–0.2 mm/year that has occurred over the past 3000 years. Geological data show
that sea level was virtually unchanged over the past 10,000 years since the present interglacial began. A
few millimeters here or there doesn’t impress people, until you consider that the rate is accelerating
and that most scientists predict sea level will rise 80–130 cm in just the next century. A sea level rise of
 1.3 m (almost 4 feet) would drown many of the world’s low-elevation cities, such as Venice and New
Orleans, and low-lying countries such as the Netherlands or Bangladesh. A number of tiny island nations
such as Vanuatu and the Maldives, which barely poke out above the ocean now, are already vanishing
beneath the waves.

Climate change in the world can be caused by various activities. When climate change occurs;
temperatures can increase a dramatically. When temperature rises, many different changes can occur
on Earth. For example, it can result in more floods, droughts, or intense rain, as well as more frequent
and severe heat waves. Oceans and glaciers have also experienced some changes: oceans are warming
and becoming more acidic, glaciers are melting, and sea levels are rising. As these changes frequently
occur in future decades, they will likely present challenges to our society and environment.

During the past century, human activities have released large amounts of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Most of the gases come from burning fossil fuels to produce
energy. Greenhouse gases are like a blanket around the Earth, trapping energy in the atmosphere and
causing it to warm. This is called the greenhouse effect and it is natural and necessary to support life on
earth. However, while greenhouse gases buildup, the climate changes and result in dangerous effects to
human health and ecosystems. People have adapted to the stable climate we have enjoyed since the
last ice age which ended several thousand years ago. A warmer climate can bring changes that can affect
our water supplies, agriculture, power and transportation systems, the natural environment, and even
our own health and safety. There are some climate changes that are unavoidable and nothing can be
done about it. For example, carbon dioxide can stay in the atmosphere for nearly a century, so Earth will
continue to warm in the future.

Global warming has really taken effect in the world over the last century. It is the unusually rapid
increase in the Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the
greenhouse gases released as people burn fossil fuels. Global warming is due to the enhancing
greenhouse gases emission and build-up in the Earth’s environment. The gases that have an influence

on the atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, dinitrogen-oxide, and methane. Almost 30 percent
of incoming sunlight is reflected back into space by bright surfaces like clouds and ice. In the other 70
percent, most is absorbed by the land and ocean, and the rest is absorbed by the atmosphere. The
absorbed solar energy heats our planet. This absorption and radiation of heat by the atmosphere is
beneficial for life on Earth. Today, the atmosphere contains more greenhouse gas molecules, so more of
the infrared energy emitted by the surface ends up being absorbed by the atmosphere. By increasing
the concentration of greenhouse gases, we are making Earth’s atmosphere a more efficient greenhouse.
Climate has cooled and warmed throughout the Earth history for various reasons. Rapid warming like we
see today is unusual in the history of our planet. Some of the factors that have an effect on climate, like
volcanic eruptions and changes in the amount of solar energy, are natural. Climate can change if there is
a change in the amount of solar energy that gets to the Earth. Volcano eruptions can really affect
 climate, because when it erupts it spews out more than just lava and ash. Volcanoes release tiny
particles made of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. These particles get into the stratosphere and
reflect solar radiation back out to space. Snow and ice also have a great effect on climate. When snow
and ice melts Earth’s climate warms, less energy is reflected and this causes even more warming. There
are many different ways that plants, animals, and other life on our planet can affect climate. Some can
produce greenhouse gases that trap heat and aid global warming through the greenhouse effect. Carbon
dioxide is taken out of the atmosphere by plants as they make their food by photosynthesis.

Impacts of Climatic Change

The World Climate Programme, established in 1979 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO),
has as one of its goals defining climatic variability and change in terms ofwhat they mean for societies.

In the past few decades short term weather anomalies and slowly developing changes of climate have
triggered severe economic, social, and political dislocations. In the 1970s adverse weather in a few
regions affected food prices, balance of trade, and human settlements worldwide. Developed and
developing countries alike find themselves increasingly vulnerable to "abnormal weather". Furthermore,
there is a growing realization that a carbon dioxide-induced climatic change could have much larger
impacts than any of these short term events.

Studying such climatic impacts is already an established practice. Water resource managers consider
climate in their planning; agronomists use crop models to predict changesinproductivity for given
changes in temperature, precipitation, and sunlight; economists have been experimenting with models
that attempt to forecast the costs and benefits of a specified climatic change on certain
economicsectors; and anthropologists have long been aware of the effects of climate on patterns of
migration and settlement. What appears to be new about climatic impact studies is the attempt to take
into account many factors, all dealing specifically with the carbon dioxide/climate problem.

We have looked at the potential impacts on several climate sensitive activities. These include:

• Energy supply and demand. The largest single use of energy inthe temperate latitudesofthe
industrialized world isforspace heating and cooling; this is markedly influenced by temperature
variations. Energy is also needed in many areas, such as California and the western Great Plains, for
pumping water for irrigation;

during dry years, more is needed.

The winter of 1976-77, for example, was characterized by a

simultaneous cold spell in the eastern halfof the United States and a drought in the western half,
including a very dry "rainy season
 in California. The result was an estimated $20 billion in energy related losses to the U.S. gross national
product that year due to excess energy usage and loss of productivity.

There are other sectors, such as transportation and tourism, whose energy demands are affected by
climate. However, it is often hard to separate the effects of climate variations from the other economic
and social factors involved.

Energy supply is also affected by climate, as in the case of that same cold winter of 1976-77. In the
eastern United States oil ahd coal barges were ice bound, piles of coal were too frozen to move, and
natural gas storage areas required more pumping due to a decrease of pressure. The fuel shortages
accounted for an estimated one million unemployed by February 1977. However, part of this shortage
was due to the fact that the utility and pipeline companies neglected to plan ahead and store fuel
reserves. Although the following winter (1977-78) was almost as severe, they were then much better
prepared to meet the extra demand.

There is a current move to replace centralized fossil fuel and nuclear power sources with renewable
sources such as hydroelectric, solar, wind, and biomass. Though this may be desirable, it will tend to
make our energy supplies more sensitive to the vagaries of the climate, depending as they do on rainfall,
sunshine, and steady winds.

Energy demand in the tropics would probably change little if global temperatures rose due to an
increase in carbon dioxide. However, at middle latitudes there would be a decrease of demand for
heating in the winter and an increase in demand for air conditioning in summer, shifting the kind of
power from heating fuel to electricity. The pattern energy demands will not shift uniformly poleward,
since, as we have emphasized, the regional changes of temperature and rainfall will be complex.

• World food production. Some aspects of the projected climatic changes due to carbon dioxide could
be beneficial for crops and other ecosystems, depending on where they are growing. More carbon
dioxide is known to enhance photosynthesis and plant growth. A 1°C rise in average summertime
temperatures at middle latitudes increases the average growing season by roughly ten days, an obvious
advantage. The increase of precipitation in the semiarid regions of the subtropics called for in our
scenario could also be advantageous.

Of course, every food crop responds differently to a given climatic change. For several major food crops
the relation.between climate and productivity are fairly well known. But for other crops, particularly
those grown in the subtropics, further study is still needed.

Equally important to food production may be the changing climate's effects on the frequency and
severity of pest outbreaks. Currently, agricultural losses due to pests are about 25 percent. Thus, a
temperature increase may make pest

the spr.uce forests of central Canada extended 300 to 400

 kilometers further north than they do now. At that time the Sahara was not a desert but a semiarid
grassland that supported grazing animals and nomadic people.

Whether ecosystems can adapt successfully to a climatic change will depend on how fast the change
occurs. This is because, while the life span of individual trees and other plants is many decades, the
response of an entire ecosystem occurs over several plant lifetimes.

A special biome exists in the Arctic tundra, where few trees grow and permafrost (permanently frozen
ground) inhibits drainage, slowing the decay of dead plants. The result is the accumulation of deep
layers of water saturated or frozen organic matter, called peat. If there is a general warming trend -and
recall that the warming is expected to be greatest in the Arctic- permafrost will gradually retreat
northward, trees will encroach on what had been tundra, and the peat bogs will thaw and dry out in
their upper layers. As a result, the upper layers of organicmatter will oxidize once they become exposed
to the air forthe first time. This will probably produce carbon dioxide and add further to the warming -
an example of a "positive feedback."

Hence, a gradual climate change will cause thedistribution of biomes to shift as each seeks to adapt and
achieve a new equilibrium. These shifts are fairly predictable, provided that natural processes alone are
involved. However, in many parts of the world human intervention will have a larger ecological impact
than the shifting climate in the next 50 to 100 years.

• Water resources. We depend on a reliable supply of fresh water for survival. A climate change will
surely shift patterns of precipitation, and this will directly affect the water resources of every region.
Areas with marginal water resources will be the hardest hit if there is a decrease in rainfall; our tentative
scenario indicates such areas in the midwestern United States and the Soviet Union.

Currently manydeveloping countries in the semiarid parts of

the subtropics are now expected to experience a general increase of precipitation and soil moisture if a
climate warming occurs. Changes in precipitation and soil moisture are key elements in food and forest
production. Hence, the climatic warming could perhaps adversely affect the two "superpowers" and
help a great many developing countries.

Many of the dams, aqueducts, pumping stations, reservoirs, and water distribution networks around the
world have been designed to cope with seasonal and year-to-year fluctuations of water supply
anddemand. The lifetime of such facilities istypically 50 to 100 years or more, so the anticipated climatic
change will occur while they are still in place. Whether they will still be adequate is in question.

In any case, any measures taken now to guarantee more reliable water supplies will be advantageous
regardless of longer term climatic changes. Even without a future shift of precipitation patterns they will
probably be cost effective.

• Fisheries. Up until the early 1970s rivers, lakes, and coastal areas of the
worldweregenerallyviewed as vast, almost limitless resources of food. As late as
 the 1960s and early 1970s scientists had reported that fish catches could be
greatly increased, and would provide a large supplement to food production
on land. However, after 1972 global fish catches declined from their peak of
26.5 million tons to 18.5 million tons in 1973, according to the U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization. There has recently been a partial recovery, but not to
the levels attained in the early 1970s.

Decreases in fish landings can be caused by a number of factors, either singly or

in combination. These factors include overfishing, poor fishery management
practices, and oceano- graphic and climatic fluctuations or changes. In 1972
and 1973 climatic fluctuations resulted in shifting ocean currents, sea surface
temperatures, and wind patterns that may have been partly responsible for the
general reduction in fish landings, and specifically in Peruvian coastal waters.
The anchovy population there dependson anupwelling ofnutrientrichcold
deepwater to the surface. In 1972 and 1973 a phenomenon called the El Nino-
an invasion

of warm, nutrient poor, surface water - depleted the nutrient supply and caused
anchovies to dieor disperse. There are other coastal zones that depend on
upwelling to provide nutrients to the fish population; all are subject to similar
year-to-year fluctuations of currents and water temperatures.

Another example of the influence of climate on fish catches is the West

Greenland cod supply. Up to about 1950 North Atlantic temperatures increased,
and during this period the catch also increased, reaching a peak of some
450,000 tons inthe early 1960s. However, since then there has been a cooling
trend,and in recent years catches ofcod havebeenso low that they have been
banned off Greenland.