Hal 112-113:

16. P(A)= 0,65 , P(B)= 0,30 dan P(A|B)= 0,45

A. Are A an B independent event? Explain
A dan B independent event jika P(A|B)= P(A)
Langkah 1:
P( A∩B)= P(A) x P(B) = 0,65 x 0,30 = 0,195
Langkah 2:
P(A|B)= P( A∩B) / P(B)
= 0,195/ 0,30 = 0,65
P(A|B)= P(A) = 0,65 =0,65
Di soal diketahui bahwa P(A|B)= 0,45 maka A dan B bukan independent event
karena P(A|B) ≠ P(A) = 0,45≠ 0,65

B. Are A and B mutually exclusive events? Explain

A dan B ME jika P( A∩B)= 0
P( A∩B) =P(A|B) x P(B)
= 0,45 x 0,30
=0,135
A dan B bukan mutually exclusive karena P( A∩B)≠ 0

C. P(AUB)ᶜ = 1- P(AUB)
P(AUB) =P(A)+P(B)-P( A∩B)
= 0,65+0,30-0,195
P(AUB) = 0,755
P(AUB)ᶜ = 1- P(AUB) = 1- 0,755 = 0,245

18.P(A)= 0,25 , P(Bᶜ)= 0,40 , P( A∩B) = 0,08

Cara 1: independent event
A. P(B) = P( A∩B) / P(A) = 0,08/0,25= 0,32, jika independent event
Cara 2: dependent event
P(A|B)=P( A∩B) / P(B)= 0,08/0,32 =0,25
Masukkan ke rumus
P(B) = P( A∩B) / P(A|B)= 0,08/0,25= 0,32

B. P(A|B)=P( A∩B) / P(B)= 0,08/0,32 =0,25

C. P(B|A)=P( A∩B)/ P(A) =0,08/0,25 =0,32

21. P(A)= 0,40 , P(B)= 0,60 , P(B|A)= 0,80

A. P( A∩B) =P(B|A) x P(A)
= 0,80 x 0,40
P( A∩B) = 0,32
P(AUB) =P(A)+P(B)-P( A∩B)
= 0,40+0,60-0,32
P(AUB) = 0,68
Probabilitas paling tidak 1 stock yang meningkat harganya adalah 0,68 atau 68%

B. A dan B Mutually Exclusive jika P( A∩B)= 0

P( A∩B) =P(B|A) x P(A)
P( A∩B) =0,80 X 0,40 = 0,32

C. Are A and B indepent jika P(B|A) = P(B)

P(B|A) = P(B) = 0,8≠0,6
Jika P(B|A) tidak diketahui,
P(B|A) = P( A∩B)/ P(A)= 0,32/0,40=0,8
A dan B tidak independent karena P(B|A)≠ P(B) = 0,8≠0,6

25. P(AA)=0,06 , P(A)= 0,13 , P( A∩AA) = 0,04

A. at least one o f the bonds defaults?
P(A U AA)= P(A)+P(AA)- P( A∩AA)
 = 0,13+0,06-0,04 =0,15
B. neither the seven-year AA rated bond nor the seven-year A rated bond defaults
P(AA U A)ᶜ = 1- P(AA U A) = 1-0,15 = 0,85

C. seven-year AA rated bond defaults, what is the probability that the seven-year A
rated bond also defaults?