Halaman 131-132

55.

No Age Frequency Probability

1 30 up to 40 3 0,075
2 40 up to 50 8 0,2
3 50 up to 60 15 0,375
4 60 up to 70 9 0,225
5 70 up to 80 5 0,125
40 1

15
a. The probability that the individuals is between 50 and 60 years of age is 40 = 0,375
3 8
b. The probability that the individuals is younger than 50 years of age is + = 0,275
40 40
9 5
c. The probability that the individuals is at least 60 years of age is + = 0,35
40 40

58.

U = Unemployed eligible worker

M = Men worker

W = Women worker

P (U) = 8.5%

P (U⃒M) = 8.8%

P (U⃒W) = 7%

P (M) = 52%

P (W) = 100% - P (M) = 48%

P (M ∩ U) = P (U⃒M)*P (M) = 8.8%*52% = 4.576%

P (W ∩ U) = P (U⃒W)*P (W) = 7%*48% = 3.36%

P (M ∩ U) 4.576%
a. P(M⃒U) = = = 53.8%
P (U) 8.5%
P (W ∩ U) 3.36%
b. P(W⃒U) = P (U) = 8.5%
= 39.52%

62.

U.S economics Well= U

U.S economics Not Well= Uc

Asian Economics Well = A

P (U) = 0.4

P (Uc) = 0.6

P (A⃒U) = 0.8

P (A⃒Uc) = 0.3

a. P (A ∩ U) = P (A⃒U)*P(U) = 0.8*0.4 = 0.32

b. P (A)?
P (A ∩ Uc) = P (A⃒Uc)*P (Uc) = 0.3*0.6 = 0.18
P (A) = P (A ∩ U) + P (A ∩ Uc) = 0.32 + 0.18 = 0.5
P (A ∩ U) 0.32
c. P (U⃒A) = P (A ∩ U)+ P (A ∩ Uc) = 0.5
= 0.64

12.

Rate of
Scenario Probability return
1 0,3 -5%
2 0,45 0%
3 0,25 10%
1 0,05

a. E(x) = (0,3 * -5%) + (0,45 * 0%) + (0,25 * 10%) = 1%

b. Var = [{0,3*(-5%-1%)2} + {(0,45*(0%-1%)2} + {0,25*(10%-1)2) = 0,00315
c. SD = √𝑉𝑎𝑟 = 0,056