Handout-3 on Environment & Ecology by Mrs.

Vaishali Anand
CLIMATE CHANGE

MECHANISMS UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Countries with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol to limit or reduce greenhouse gas
emissions must meet their targets primarily through national measures. As an additional
means of meeting these targets, the Kyoto Protocol introduced three market-based
mechanisms, thereby creating what is now known as the carbon market. Thus, a new
commodity was created – emission reductions. Because carbon dioxide is the principal
greenhouse gas, people speak simply of trading in carbon. Carbon is now tracked and
traded like any other commodity

The Kyoto mechanisms are:

Clean development mechanism (CDM)- The CDM allows emission-reduction (or

emission removal) projects in developing countries to earn certified emission reduction
(CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of CO2. These CERs can be traded and
sold, and used by industrialized countries to a meet a part of their emission reduction
targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The mechanism stimulates sustainable development
and emission reductions, while giving industrialized countries some flexibility in how
they meet their emission reduction limitation targets.

Joint implementation (JI)- Through the JI mechanism, a country with an emission-

reduction limitation commitment under the Kyoto Protocol may take part in an emission-
reduction (or emission removal) project in any other country with a commitment under
the Protocol, and count the resulting emission units towards meeting its Kyoto target. JI
projects earn emission reduction units (ERUs), each equivalent to one tonne of CO2. As
with the CDM, all emission reductions must be real, measurable, verifiable and
additional to what would have occurred without the project.

Basically, CDM and JI are the two project-based mechanisms which feed the carbon
market. The CDM involves investment in emission reduction or removal enhancement
projects in developing countries that contribute to their sustainable development, while
JI enables developed countries to carry out emission reduction or removal
enhancement projects in other developed countries.

Emissions trading (ET)- Parties with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex B
Parties) have accepted targets for limiting or reducing emissions. These targets are
expressed as levels of allowed emissions, or assigned amounts,at over the 2008-2012
commitment period. The allowed emissions are divided into assigned amount units
(AAUs).

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Emissions trading allows countries that have emission units to spare - emissions
permitted them but not "used" - to sell this excess capacity to countries that are over
their targets. Thus, a new commodity was created in the form of emission reductions or
removals. Since carbon dioxide is the principal greenhouse gas, people speak simply of
trading in carbon. Carbon is now tracked and traded like any other commodity. This is
known as the "carbon market."

CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE FINANCE UNDER UNFCCC

Climate finance refers to local, national or transnational financing—drawn from public,

private and alternative sources of financing—that seeks to support mitigation and
adaptation actions that will address climate change.

What is the financial mechanism? What are the other funds?

To facilitate the provision of climate finance, the Convention established a financial

mechanism to provide financial resources to developing country Parties. The financial
mechanism also serves the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

The Convention states that the operation of the financial mechanism can be entrusted
to one or more existing international entities. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has

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 served as an operating entity of the financial mechanism since the Convention’s entry
into force in 1994.

The Global Environment Facility - was established on the eve of the 1992 Rio Earth
Summit to help tackle our planet’s most pressing environmental problems. Since then,
the GEF has provided over $17.9 billion in grants and mobilized an additional $93.2
billion in co-financing for more than 4500 projects in 170 countries. Today, the GEF is
an international partnership of 183 countries, international institutions, civil society
organizations and the private sector that addresses global environmental issues.

Green Climate Fund (GCF) -At COP 16, in 2010, Parties established the Green
Climate Fund (GCF) and in 2011 also designated it as an operating entity of the
financial mechanism. The financial mechanism is accountable to the COP, which
decides on its policies, programme priorities and eligibility criteria for funding. It supports
the efforts of developing countries to respond to the challenge of climate change. It was
set up by the 194 countries who are parties to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2010, as part of the Convention’s
financial mechanism. It aims to deliver equal amounts of funding to mitigation and
adaptation, while being guided by the Convention’s principles and provisions.
In addition to providing guidance to the GEF and the GCF, Parties have established
two special funds—the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) and the Least Developed
Countries Fund (LDCF), both managed by the GEF—and the Adaptation Fund (AF)
established under the Kyoto Protocol in 2001.

The Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) -was established under the Convention in
2001 to finance projects relating to: adaptation; technology transfer and capacity
building; energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management; and
economic diversification. This fund should complement other funding mechanisms for
the implementation of the Convention.

The Adaptation Fund (AF)- was established in 2001 to finance concrete adaptation
projects and programmes in developing country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol that are
particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. The Adaptation Fund
is financed with a share of proceeds from the clean development mechanism
(CDM)project activities and other sources of funding. The share of proceeds amounts to
2 percent of certified emission reductions (CERs) issued for a CDM project activity.

Climate financing has been entrusted by few entities

1. Global Environment Facility(1992 Rio summit)- Countries+international organizations+pvt sector+civil
society
also manage
Special climate change fund(kyoto 2001)
Least developed countries Fund
2.Green climate fund-(COP 16 South korea Icheon) By COP and decides criteria for financing Developing
countries
3.Adaptation fund(kyoto 2001)- special fund for extremely vulnerable countries to climate change
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 CLIMATE CHANGE

WHAT DID THE 5TH ASSESSMENT REPOT IPCC SAY?

The fifth report identified western Japan, eastern China, the southern part of the Indo-
China peninsula, and the northern part of South Asia as the most vulnerable regions in
Asia. The fifth report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did
scare the world. It said poverty, food price and cases of malaria and diarrhoeal diseases
were to rise.

The 2015 report said since growing food could become harder, it could lead to a food
crisis In Asia, it identified western Japan, eastern China, the southern part of the Indo-
China peninsula, and the northern part of South Asia as the most vulnerable regions. It
went on to observe that poverty reduction has been adversely affected by climate
related hazards in south Asia and that farmers were moving away from agriculture due
to repeated droughts across Asia.

The report also warned that livelihoods of indigenous communities in Asia were in
danger and climate change will end up increasing the food price, cost of living and
exacerbate poverty.

The fifth report had predicted that if climate change continued as projected, people
would be at a greater risk of injury, disease and death due to more intense heat waves
and fires, increased risks of food and water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases.
Under-nutrition from lower food production in poor regions would also contribute to the
risk. It was predicted that by 2100, some parts of the world would experience 4-7°C
higher temperatures. This raised concerns about habitability of some areas.

What IPCC says about India

It projects a fall in crop yields and rise in the impact of extreme weather events in India

The IPCC synthesis report, released on November 1, outlines the effects of climate
change on all regions of the world. Given below are the implications of climate change

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specifically for India and Asia, with observations from the synthesis report and the draft
IPCC Assessment Report (AR5)

Effects of climate change on weather

The largest chunk of the IPCC synthesis report focuses on the changes in weather
patterns and projections related to extreme weather events. These changes are
expected to have a cascading effect on the health of the economy as well as that of the
people.
Net annual temperatures in India in 2030s, with respect to 1970s, will increase from 1.7-
2.2°C. Extreme temperatures are expected to increase by 1-4°C, with maximum
increase in coastal regions.
The number of monsoon break days has increased while the number of monsoon
depressions has declined.
Mean and extreme precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon is expected to
increase.
The Himalayan region will see maximum increase in precipitation, while the north-
eastern region will experience the minimum increase.
An increase in extreme rainfall events occurred at the expense of weaker rainfall events
over the central Indian region and in many other areas.
Extreme weather events: cyclones, floods and droughts
Projections indicate that the frequency of cyclones is likely to decrease in 2030s, with
increase in cyclonic intensity.
People living in districts along the eastern coast of India are expected to be especially
vulnerable to the impact of extreme weather events because of poor infrastructure and
demographic development.
Floods and droughts are likely to increase in India since there will be a decline in
seasonal rainfall, coupled with increase in extreme precipitation during monsoon.
For example, the Mahanadi river basin in India will see an increased possibility of floods
in September while an increased possibility of water scarcity in April.
Delhi is one of the world’s five most populated cities that are located in areas with high
risk of floods.

Agriculture, forests and trade

Climate change will especially affect the livelihoods of people. Agriculture, the mainstay
of the Indian economy, will see dramatic changes in yields, affecting people’s right to
food security.
In India, the estimated countrywide agricultural loss in 2030 is over $7 billion. It will
severely affect the income of 10 per cent of the population.
Monsoon sorghum grain yield is projected to decline by 2-14 per cent by 2020, with
worsening yields by 2050 and 2080.
Wheat yields in the Indo-Gangetic plains are expected to experience a 51 per cent
reduction in the most high-yielding areas due to heat stress. This region currently
produces 14 to 15 per cent of the world’s wheat and feeds around 200 million people of
the region.

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With current temperatures approaching critical levels in North India in October, South
India in April and August and in East India from March to June, rice development will
accelerate and reduce the time required for growth.
A third of forest areas in India are projected to change by 2100, with deciduous forests
changing into evergreen ones due to increased precipitation. Human pressures are,
however, expected to slow these changes.
With India’s GDP growth, transport emissions are growing much faster than the value of
trade, leading to a further increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Health
Pollution-induced changes in air and water quality, as well as changing weather
patterns, are expected to have wide-reaching effects on the health of Indians, according
to the report.
In addition to flood deaths, contamination of urban flood waters will increase the risk of
water-borne diseases.
Mental disorders and post traumatic stress syndrome have also been seen in extreme
weather events and disaster-prone areas.
High temperatures are associated with mortality rates in India and heat waves will
especially affect outdoor workers. Air pollution in combination with increased
temperatures will also affect the health of people.
Studies have found correlation between the prevalence of vector-borne diseases like
malaria and rainfall in India.

Adaptation
Based on extensive research, the report recommends mitigation measures to conserve
agriculture, water supply and air quality.
Agricultural losses could be reduced by 80 per cent if cost-effective climate resilience
measures are implemented.
Reservoirs will partly address the problem of water scarcity. Water management in the
Indus, Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins would benefit from integrated
coordination among Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan.
Efforts to decarbonise electricity production in India is projected to decrease mortality
due to reduced PM5 and PM2.5 particulates.
Policies to increase public transportation, promote walking and cycling, and reduce
private cars will increase air quality and decrease the health burden, particularly in
urban environments.
The report notes that abandoning the use of biomass fuel or coal for indoor cooking will
lead to an improvement in respiratory and cardiac health among women and children in
India.

The Asia perspective

The continent of Asia is expected to bear one of the largest burdens of climate change.
The IPCC report states that people settled across different topographies and regions
will become vulnerable to its effects.
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People living in low-lying coastal zones and flood plains are most at risk from climate
change impacts. Half of Asia's urban population lives in these areas.
More than 90 per cent of the world’s population that is exposed to tropical cyclones lives
in Asia. Rising sea levels will compound the effect of such storms for people living in
low-lying coastal areas.
Rainfall-induced landslides will threaten settlements on unstable slopes and in landslide
prone-areas in some parts of Asia.
Changing precipitation patterns are likely to affect crop production and consequently,
affect 81 per cent of Asia’s rural population that depends on agriculture for livelihood.
Vulnerable groups in urban areas will be more susceptible to the ill-effects of frequent
and intense heat waves. Warmer weather may lead to cholera epidemics in coastal
Bangladesh, schistosomiasis in inland lakes in China, and diarrheal outbreaks in rural
children. Vector-borne diseases are likely to spread to newer environments.

According to the synthesis report, adaptation is being facilitated in some areas of Asia
through mainstreaming climate adaptation action into development planning, early
warning systems, integrated water resources management, agroforestry, and coastal
reforestation of mangroves.

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 CLIMATE CHANGE

INDIA’s INTENDED NATIONALLY DETREMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (INDCs) UNDER

PARIS AGREEMENT

1. To put forward and further propagate a healthy and sustainable way of living based
on traditions and values of conservation and moderation.

2. To adopt a climate friendly and a cleaner path than the one followed hitherto by
others at corresponding level of economic development.

3. To reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35 percent by 2030 from 2005
level.

4. To achieve about 40 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from

nonfossil fuel based energy resources by 2030 with the help of transfer of technology
and low cost international finance including from Green Climate Fund (GCF).

5. To create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent

through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

6. To better adapt to climate change by enhancing investments in development

programmes in sectors vulnerable to climate change, particularly agriculture, water
resources, Himalayan region, coastal regions, health and disaster management.

7. To mobilize domestic and new & additional funds from developed countries to
implement the above mitigation and adaptation actions in view of the resource required
and the resource gap.

8. To build capacities, create domestic framework and international architecture for

quick diffusion of cutting edge climate technology in India and for joint collaborative
R&D for such future technologies.

NDC's most imp ones

1. Reduce emissions by 1/3 from 2005 level to 2030 level
2. 40% of electricity from non-fossil feuls by 2030
3. 2.5-3 billion tonnes of carbon sink through forests by 2030 Page 8 of 13
To achieve the above contributions, India is determined to continue with its on-going
interventions, enhance the existing policies as detailed in previous sections and launch
new initiatives in the following priority areas:

1) Introducing new, more efficient and cleaner technologies in thermal power

generation.

2) Promoting renewable energy generation and increasing the share of alternative fuels
in overall fuel mix.

3) Reducing emissions from transportation sector.

4) Promoting energy efficiency in the economy, notably in industry, transportation,

buildings and appliances.

5) Reducing emissions from waste.

6) Developing climate resilient infrastructure.

7) Full implementation of Green India Mission and other programmes of afforestation.

8) Planning and implementation of actions to enhance climate resilience and reduce

vulnerability to climate change. India has also revisited the National Missions under the
NAPCC in the light of new scientific information and technological advances and
identified new missions or programs on wind energy, health, waste to energy, and
coastal areas. It is also redesigning the National Water Mission and National Mission on
Sustainable Agriculture.
no sector speccific
obligation
It is clarified that India’s INDC do not bind it to any sector specific mitigation obligation
or action, including in agriculture sector. India’s goal is to reduce overall emission
intensity and improve energy efficiency of its economy over time and at the same time
protecting the vulnerable sectors of economy and segments of our society. The
successful implementation of INDC is contingent upon an ambitious global agreement
including additional means of implementation to be provided by developed country
parties, technology transfer and capacity building.

CLIMATE CHANGE

IPCC’S SPECIAL REPORT ON GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5°C - 2018

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For many years, limiting global warming to no more than 2 degree C above pre-
industrial levels was the de-facto target for global policymakers. This was formalised
when countries signed the Cancun Agreements at the UN’s climate conference in
Mexico in 2010.

Key takeaways

• Human activities have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-
industrial levels. At this level of warming, intensity and frequency of weather extremes
has already increased.

• The impacts at 1.5°C of warming on people and ecosystems is much higher than
anticipated in the previous scientific reports.

• The impacts at 2°C will be far higher than 1.5°C and will be catastrophic for the poor
and the developing countries.

• The goal of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 2°C must be revised. For a safer
world, the target must now be firmly put at 1.5°C.

• To remain within 1.5°C warming, the world will have to reduce CO2 emissions by 45
per cent by 2030 from 2010 levels and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

• Current efforts to fight climate change is meager and weak. The pledges made by the
countries in the Paris Agreement will take us to 1.5°C between 2032-2050. Time to act
is now.

• Even at 1.2°C warming, which is a little higher than the global annual average, India is
severely affected by climate impacts. The impacts will increase significantly at 1.5°C
and would be catastrophic for farmers and coastal communities at 2°C.

The impacts at 1.5°C are clear and dangerous

The IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C clearly establishes that the
world has already warmed by 1.0°C since pre-industrial levels. Some regions have
warmed even more. India, for instance, has warmed by about 1.2°C. The impact of this
warming is already visible and is being experienced across the world. This year alone,
various parts of the world was battered by extreme weather events in some form or the
other — be it heat waves or drought in Europe and China, forest fires in the US, dust
storms and unprecedented rainfall in parts of India, including historically high rainfall in
Kerala and high precipitation in Japan and other island nations. With a further 0.5°C
warming, the effects would be far greater and more pronounced than what science had
already envisaged. The IPCC’s 1.5°C Report gives out the following prognosis:

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 • The current 1°C rise in temperature has already created havoc; an additional
0.5°C rise would result in higher sea-level rise, higher temperatures, and
increase in frequency and intensity of precipitation, droughts and hot days etc.
• The report is virtually certain that sea level will continue to rise in both 1.5°C and
2°C warmer worlds, well beyond the end of the current century.
• At 1.5°C, the world would reach some critical thresholds beyond which natural
ecosystems would fundamentally change and, in some cases, would take
millennia to recover.
• Ocean acidification and warming is on the rise, with pernicious effects on
survival, growth and development of marine life.
• Coral reefs are already suffering, with 75 per cent of them affected by bleaching
and death. A 1.5°C rise in global temperature would wreak disaster on coral and
marine life, causing a 70-90 per cent coral loss.
• The thresholds for irreversible, multi-millennial loss of ice sheets in Greenland
and the west Antarctic may also be breached at 1.5°C.
• Rise in temperature would be greater in some regions. In the Arctic, for example
it can be two to four times larger than the global average warming. As a result,
100 million people are projected to go into poverty through impacts on
agriculture, food prices, food insecurity and hunger, income losses, lost livelihood
opportunities, adverse health impacts and population displacements.
• The Report establishes that 90 per cent of disaster-related displacement in the
past decade can be attributed to climate change and weather events and it is
projected to increase in the 21st century with greater warming.

The impacts at 2°C will be catastrophic

The upper temperature goal of 2.0°C as set out in the Paris Agreement would result in
catastrophic impacts. The report says that the impacts resulting from a 2°C warmer
planet exceed what was anticipated in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Also,
the impacts increases significantly in a 2.0°C warmer world compared to 1.5°C
warming. Of all the regions, coastal and agricultural economies of developing countries,
including India, would be worst affected at 2.0°C. In fact, 2.0°C would put a question
mark on the survival of many communities in the developing world. The ecological
impacts of a 2°C warmer planet are calamitous in comparison to a 1.5ºC warmer planet.
This difference in temperature would lead to the following impacts, in some cases,
irreversible:

• Sea level rise will be around 0.1 m greater in a 2ºC world compared to 1.5ºC by
2100. This would effectively mean that many coastal cities and islands will

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 inevitably be inundated by the end of the century. The lives of 10 million more
people will be disrupted due to sea level rise in a 2ºC world.
• Coral reefs face complete extinction at 2°C.
• 2 million km2 of permafrost area will melt over centuries risking runaway climate
change due to large-scale methane emissions.
• Climate-induced extinction rates for plants, vertebrates and insects increases by
50 per cent, especially in tropical areas.
• Risks from land-based heat waves will increase and at a faster rate, especially in
Central and Eastern North America, Central and Southern Europe, the
Mediterranean, Western and Central Asia, and Southern Africa.
• Extreme hot days would increase to 4°C in mid-latitudes; precipitation associated
with tropical cyclones would be heavier.
• At least one sea ice-free Arctic summer per decade (as opposed to one per
century).

The socio-economic difference in impacts between a 2°C and a 1.5°C warmer world are
tremendous.

a) A 2°C warmer world would lead to major losses to the global economy and increased
susceptibility to poverty. It will lead to decline of agricultural yields and food systems for
hundreds of millions of people by 2050.

b) Global water stress will increase by 50 per cent in a 2°C warmer world compared to
1.5°C.

c) The risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria will increase.

d) Most adaptation needs will also be lower for global warming of 1.5°C compared to
2°C. All the above will cause devastation to already disadvantaged and vulnerable
populations, primarily indigenous people in the Arctic, agricultural and coastal
livelihoods, and small-island developing states. This is not to suggest that the world is
safe at 1.5°C. A 1.5°C warmer world would still have much higher impacts compared to
1.0°C warming that we are experiencing today

Climate change impacts in India will only get worse. Though the Summary for Policy
Makers (SPM) has not specifically mentioned impacts on India, it clearly states that
agricultural economies, which includes India, would suffer pronounced impacts of global
warming in the form of floods, droughts, water scarcity and decrease in food production,
exposing a greater proportion of an already vulnerable population to poverty, food and
livelihood insecurity in the near future

With inadequate climate efforts, global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030
and 2050. If global emissions continue as per the commitments made under Paris

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 Agreement, the carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that the world can emit) for 1.5°C
warming will be exhausted by 2030. In order to limit warming at 1.5°C, maximum efforts
need to be done by 2030. That is, the world will have to reduce CO2 emissions by 45
per cent by 2030 from 2010 levels and reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The world
has three options:

(a) Limit warming to 1.5°C;

(b) Allow temperature to overshoot 1.5°C and then return to 1.5°C; and (

c). Limit warming to 2°C. The impacts will be higher in the overshoot scenario compared
to limiting warming to 1.5°C.

some notable features of 1.5 degree report

1. Sealevels continue to rise at 1.5
cancun sumit
2. 1.5-75% corals dead vs 2-100% dead
1. technological mechanism
3. huge impact on coastal economy, water stress,
2. Green climate fund
extreme weather events, poverty, hunger, loss of
3. Adaptation fund(financed through CDM)
agricultural productivity and vector borne disease.
Doha
4. in 2 degrees one ice free arctic sea in a decade
1.2013-2020 new commitment period
as opposed to century
2. restriction on AAU that can be carried forward to
2nd commitment period

Ecological footprint- the amount of Redd and redd plus

ecosystem services demanded by humans
and its supply(earth can renew them) by
ecosystem.
carbon foot print- amount of co2 emitted and
the amount earth can sequestrate it.
1. incentives in form of fund to developing countries
that reduce deforestaion and forest degradation,
conserve biodiversity, give livelihood support to
communities depended on forest and other practices
that enhance carbon stock in biomass.

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