CLIMATE AND COMMUNITY

IKLIM DAN MASYARAKAT (AIX3007)

LECTURE 6 2019/2020

Basic concepts related to climate change

Dr. Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli
Department of Geography
OVERVIEW

• What causes past climate change ?

Natural causes
Anthropogenic causes
 ANTHROPOGENIC CAUSES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE

• Global warming: whether the governments of the world

choose to believe it or not, global warming is happening.
• Over the past 50 years, according to the new Arctic climate
assessment, temperatures have risen 1o to 3oC in Siberia, and
2oto 3o C in Alaska.
• Predictions show that greenhouse warming would rise -fastest
near the North Pole.
OUR CHANGING CLIMATE: INCREASING
CO2CONCENTRATIONS
•Highest increase in greenhouse gase: CO2
•Man is modifying the CO2 concentrations via burning fossil fuels
•CO2concentrations are higher than any time in the last 400,000
years (NOAA ).
–Amounts are now beyond the range of natural variations
experienced over the past 700,000 years
•Predictions are for CO2concentrations to continue increasing to
1.5 to 3 times present values by 2100 (NOAA)
CHANGING CO2 CONCENTRATIONS

• •CO2concentrations have varied naturally by a factor of 2

over the past few hundred thousand years
• •Fossil fuel burning since the industrial revolution has created a
sharp increase in CO2concentrations
• •CO2concentrations are now higher than at any time in past
few hundred thousand years
• •And concentrations are increasing faster with time
DESTRUCTION OF NATURAL CO2 SINKS

• •CO2 sinks store CO2, keeping it out of the atmosphere –so it is

not contributing to the greenhouse effect
• •The biggest sinks are the oceans -CO2 dissolves in sea water
and gets moved to the deep ocean by natural currents
• •Another big sink is plants –plants take in CO2 and convert it
into organic matter using photosynthesis. It is also stored in the
soil as dead organic matter
• •CO2 is released into the atmosphere when trees are burnt by
forest fires or to make way for agriculture
WHAT’S THE BIG DEAL IF HUMAN CO2CAUSES
1°C TEMPERATURE INCREASE?
•An increase in atmospheric temperature (human or natural origin)
will lead to the increase in the water vapor content of the
troposphere.
•Because water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas, the increase in
H2O vapor in turn causes enhanced greenhouse effect, raising the
temperature more.
•Higher atmospheric temperature will cause more evaporation of
water
•Which leads to even higher temperature…
Runaway Green House Effect!
CHANGES TO LAND COVER

• Changes in land use (e.g.

farming, building cities)
• replacement of darker
forests with paler
croplands and grasslands
• Storage and use of water
dams, reservoirs, irrigation
COMBUSTION OF FOSSIL FUELS

• Generation of heat
• Generation of particulate pollution (e.g., soot,
smoke)
• Generation of gaseous pollution  particulates
(e.g., sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide; get oxidized to
form sulfate, nitrate)
• Generates carbon dioxide
GENERATION OF OTHER GREENHOUSE GASES

• Methane, Nitrous oxide, Chlorofluorocarbons, Ozone

• Especially via biomass burning, landfills, rice paddies
agriculture, animal husbandry, fossil fuel use, leaky fuel lines,
and industry
• Changes the composition of the atmosphere
• Most important are the gases with long lifetimes
• Like CO2 > 100 years
 FEEDBACK EFFECT
•The climate system is very complicated. A change in one component
of the system may cause changes in other components.
•Sometimes the changes in other components enhance the initial
change, then we say that these changes have positive feedback to the
system.
•If the changes result in the reduction of the original change, then they
have negative feedback.
•Both positive and negative feedback processes may exist in the
climate system.
In studying the global climatic change, we cannot make conclusions
based on intuition, but have to take all such possible complicated
effects into account. A good climate model would have treated all of
them realistically.
Feedback Loop

Positive Feedback
•Mechanisms that make things worse…
e.g., Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere
leading to the release of more CO2

Negative Feedback
• Mechanisms that are self-correcting…
e.g., Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere
leading to higher rate of CO2 removal, such as
our CO2 cycle.
AN EXAMPLE OF POSITIVE FEEDBACK

•When the climate becomes warmer (either due to the

increase of CO2 in the atmosphere or other unknown
mechanisms), the ocean may also become warmer.
•A warmer ocean has lower solubility of CO2and hence will
release more CO2 into the atmosphere.
•This may cause the climate to become even warmer than
before. Thus the dependence of solubility of CO2on
temperature has a positive feedback on the climate system.
AN EXAMPLE OF NEGATIVE FEEDBACK

•Consider a clear region over the ocean. Since there is no

cloud, the sun shines on the ocean surface, causing it to warm
up.
•This makes this part of the ocean warmer than other parts and
the air over it tends to rise (causing convection).
•Rising air expands and cools, causing clouds to form. The
formation of clouds will block out the sun and the solar heating
of the ocean surface will cease.
•The surface will start to cool down. Thus the cloud formation
due to surface heating and convection is a negative feedback
to the climate system.
POSITIVE FEEDBACK MECHANISM

•Assume that the Earth is warming.

-Warming leads to more evaporation from oceans, which increases

water vapor in atmosphere.
-More water vapor increases absorption of IR, which strengthens the
greenhouse effect.
-This raises temperatures further, which leads to more evaporation,
more water vapor, warming…
“Runaway Greenhouse Effect”
Positive Feedback Mechanism
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FEEDBACKS

• Again assume that the Earth is warming.

• -Suppose as the atmosphere warms and moistens, more low
clouds form.
• -More low clouds reflect more solar radiation, which decreases
solar heating at the surface.
• -This slows the warming, which would counteract a runaway
greenhouse effect on Earth.
• Negative Feedback Mechanism
HOW DO YOU REDUCE GHGS?

To stabilize GHG at 550ppm, GHG needs to be cut by 80% from

today’s level.
•No one single technology can achieve this reduction.
Mitigation has to be achieved in all sectors.
•GHG can be cut in 4 ways:
• Increased efficiency
• Reducing demand
• Action on non-energy emissions
• Switch to low-carbon technologies
HOW DO YOU REDUCE GHGS?

•Increase efficiency in Power Generation

•Change from coal fired to gas fired.
•Increase efficiency in Transport
(1) Aviation
(2) Rail
(3) Road transport
(4) Shipping
• Aerodynamic improvements
• Weight reductions
• Engine fuel efficient development
MITIGATING GHG EMISSIONS FROM
AGRICULTURAL ECOSYSTEMS
•Cropland management
•Grazing land management/pasture improvement
•Management of organic soil
•Restoration of degraded land
•Livestock management
•Manure/biosolid management
•Bioenergy

• Source: IPCC 2007 Assessment Report:

FORESTRY

•1m3of wood stores 0.92tCO2

•Mitigation Activities

(1) Maintaining or increasing the forest area

(2) Maintaining or increasing the carbon density
(3) Increasing off-site carbon stocks in wood products and
enhancing product and fuel substitution
METHANE FROM LANDFILL SITE

• landfilling with landfill gas recovery (CH4)

• Active landfill gas extraction system

WASTE MANAGEMENT

• post-consumer recycling
• -reduce
• -recycling
• -re-use
WASTE MANAGEMENT

• Composting of selected waste fractions

• -Fluorinated gases (CFCs and HCFCs)
• Processes that reduce GHG generation compared to landfilling
• -incineration
• -production of refuse-derived fuel
• -industrial co-combustion
• -Biological treatment (compositing, anaerobic digestion and
mechanical biological treatment)
• -wastewater and sludge treatment
LOW CARBON POWER GENERATION

•Nuclear:
Uranium, Uranium recycle, Fusion
•Renewable:
Hydro,
Wind,
Solar PV,
•Biomass,
•Geothermal
•Ocean.
NUCLEAR POWER

• •It is considered as a non-renewable energy

• •Little GHG emissions.
• •Total life-cycle GHG emissions per unit of electricity
produced from nuclear power are below 40gCO2-eq/kWh.
• •It is considered to be the short to medium term solution for
mitigation of CO2emission.
OCEAN ENERGY

• •Tidal energy schemes capture water at high tide and release

it at low tide.
• •Wave energy: the oscillating motion of an incoming and
outgoing wave is used to drive turbines that generate
electricity.
• •Ocean thermal energy conversion uses the difference in
temperature between warm surface water and cold deep
ocean water to make electricity.
ECO-CITY / CARBON NEUTRAL CITY

•Dongtan Eco-city (near Shanghai)

•An island with 500,000 people.
•40% land used for building, others to green space and farmland.
•Integrate all aspects of sustainability.
•Low energy consumption that is as close to carbon neutral as
possible, most energy derive from solar, wind and biomass.
•Pedestrian, bicycle and fuel cell transport.
•Recycled city waste organic farming self-sufficient in water and food
sourced from the surrounding farmland.
•Another city is Sseesamirembe(Uganda)
TUTORIAL
• What are the anthropogenic causes of climate change ?
• What are the measures that can be taken to face the climate
change?
• Explain feedback mechanisms with the help of examples.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlVXOC6a3ME
REFERENCES
• IPCC REPORTS AR5 https://www.ipcc.ch/about/
• Glantz, M.H. 2003. Climate Affairs –A Primer. Island Press.
Washington, D.C. USA.
• Climate Change, Edmond A. Mathez and Jason E. Smerdon
• Climate change and climate modelling David Neelin