According to the WHO OPTS502M201921-2

Suresh Venkatraman

• The average Indian male lives up-to 69 years with a

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standard deviation of 7 years.

• Four retired men aged 65, travel to Nepal and after 10

years visit India.
• They credit this guru with
the secret of their longevity.

• Should you believe them?

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 For convenience assume OPTS502M201921-2
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that
• life span is normally distributed.
• Now there can be two points of view
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1. Either we say that it is possible for a random sample of 4

Indian men to reach the age of 75 and this is not very
unlikely.
2. Or we say though it is possible for a random sample of 4
Indian men to reach the age of 75, it is very unlikely.
• And if an unlikely event has taken place, then we might
believe that the guru is effective.
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 How to write the OPTS502M201921-2
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hypotheses?
• HA : µ > 69
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• Observe that it is easier to define the alternate hypothesis

– because that is the claim that I want to test.
• These men claim that they are special and that they do
not come from the general population whose age has µ0 =
69 and σ = 7
• Here µ is the average age of the population from which
these 4 men have come

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 The null hypothesis must OPTS502M201921-2
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• Be opposite of the alternate hypothesis

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• And must include the = sign.

• Therefore I write my null hypothesis as follows
• H0 : µ ≤ µ0 or H0 : µ ≤ 69
• What about alpha.
• Since I am very risk averse / conservative I will believe this
only if the likelihood of this happening is less than 1%
• For me alpha = 1%
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 Then I compute the test OPTS502M201921-2
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statistic
• z = (x̅ - µ)/[ σ/ √n]
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• z = (75 -69)/[ 7/ √4]

• z = 6/ [ 7/2] = 6*2/7 = 1.71
• How likely is an event as extreme as this?
• p(X̅ ≥ 75, n = 4 |µ =69, σ = 7) = p(z ≥ 1.71)
• The z table gives me p(z ≤ 1.71) = 0.9564
• Therefore p(z ≥ 1.71) = 1 – 0.9564 = 0.0436
• There is 4.36% chance of this happening.
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 Since p > alpha OPTS502M201921-2
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• I retain the null hypothesis.

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• that it is possible for a random sample of 4 Indian men to

reach the age of 75 and this is not very unlikely.

• So there is no reason to believe that these people being

alive at the age 75 is due to the Guru.

• It could have happened even without the guru.

• OM

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