News analysis Health Business

East Africa’s Teeth brushing Domestic marine cargo covers

abnormal rainfall keeps heart healthy? could boost insurance market

Issue No. 602 Dec. 13 - 19 2019 Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8

Uganda after
Museveni
Pundits weigh in on transition

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inbox

Issue No. 602 Dec. 13 - 19 2019

News analysis Business Health Arts Motoring

Cover story
Uganda after Museveni
Pundits weigh in on transition

5 The Week
30 Comments
Government to release Shs20bn for
emergency response to floods Why African cultural
restitution matters : It is about
more than confronting the
9 The Last Word
legacy of colonialism and its
Atubo’s disappointing lamentations: effect on global power dynamics
Why African elites are deluded to
think the “international community”
32 Health
has our best interests at heart
Teeth brushing keeps heart
14 Analysis healthy?: Strange link shows
up in yet another study
East Africa’s abnormal
rainfall: Meteorologists warn
of more rains in coming weeks
35 Arts & Culture
27 Business Art creates water :An
exhibition of contrasts at
Domestic marine cargo covers could the musuem
boost insurance market: Presently
importers insure their cargo in the
country of origin through their suppliers

MANAGING DIRECTOR: Andrew M. Mwenda WRITERS:Ronald Musoke, Ian Katusiime, Patricia Akankwatsa, Julius Businge.
MANAGING EDITOR: Joseph Were DESIGN: Sarah Ngororano
BUSINESS EDITOR: Isaac Khisa CARTOONIST: Harriet Jamwa

PUBLISHER: Independent Publications Limited, Plot 82/84, Kanjokya Street, P. O. Box 3304, Kampala, Uganda
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2 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
 inbox

“I don’t support gays but I respect

their rights.” Kyadondo East MP Bobi
Wine in an interview in South Africa

The head of Anesthesia Mulago Hospital Dr John Mark Kasumba, explains how the modern Peadiatric
theatre works as Dr Jane Ruth Aceng, the Minister of Health, Dr. Charles Olaro Director Clinical and
Community Dr Byarugaba Baterana Mulago Hospital Executive Director and others look on. This was
during official launching of the three modern Pediatric theatres on Dec 5.

President Yuweri
Museveni holds a shield
and spire after a Church
fund raising faction given
by the West Budama North
SACCO in support of his “All of us here are corrupt. After
candidature 2021. Looking
on are; the Arch-Bishop of here, we are all going back to our
Tororo Diocese Emmanuel corruption.”Jacob Oulanyah, Deputy
Obbo (L) as area MP Speaker at the Anti-Corruption Walk
Othieno Okoth claps. The
president contributed
shs30 million cash and
pledged 70 million towards
the completion of St Maria
Gorreti Church on Dec
3.  INDEPENDENT ALFRED
OCHWO

Deputy Resident District

Commissioner for Kira
Municipality Joseph
Muhoozi Ssekasamba “Putting Police on notice, when
addresses local leaders and I come home on leave, I will be
residents of Kikonko zone
in Kirinya, Bweyogerere demanding compensation for
division over a road damage of my beloved garden.
closure by Victor Treading, Our home must not become a
a Chinese company under
construction on Dec battleground. No joke!”Winnie
9.   INDEPENDENT ALFRED Byanyima, UNAIDS boss after Police raided
OCHWO
the home of her husband Dr Kizza Besigye,
opposition leader

Factories President Residents of Masindi Recruits UPDF

9 Museveni commissioned in
Nakaseke district last week
1200 a UPDF General is
accused of evicting
4000 is targeting in the
next one month

Dec. 13 - 19 2019 3
week

Government to release Shs20bn for emergency response to floods

In the wake of floods and landslides that
have left many parts of Uganda vulnerable,
the government has set aside Shs20billion to
deal with emergency response. The worst
affected areas are Bundibugyo Bududa and
West Nile where death toll is expected to
hit 30 in total. The emergency procurement
will be in form of inflatable boats, tarpaulins,
blankets, relief food, drugs for water borne
diseases and culverts for fixing washed away
bridges under the lifesaving and rescue
phase of the flooding and landslides situa-
tion. Minister of state for disaster prepared-
ness Musa Ecweru in a statement said there
is need for an urgent response to 38,000km
of district roads, 98,000km of urban roads
and 79,000km of village access roads which
have been destroyed by floods. He added
that 20 bridges require overhaul.  “The
above normal rain has caused water logging
in many villages causing huge post-harvest
destruction. Affected population of over
eight million requires immediate shelter and
relief food. Twenty districts are most prone
to waterborne diseases,” said Ecweru. He
added that the impact of flooding is high-
est in the regions of Bugisu, Teso, Bukedi,
Kigezi and Rwenzori as well as the districts
of Ntoroko, Bundibugyo and Kasese.

KCCA names Changes at Supreme Court, Flavian Zeija appointed DPP

deadly city spots
Old Taxi Park, Mini Price,
Owino Market, Nakivubo
from Owino, Kisenyi II,
Kagugube and Kamwokya
are seven spots in Kampala
that girls and women
should watch for. According
to Kampala Capital City
Authority (KCCA), these are
nooks women should avoid
because of rampant kidnaps,
murders and rape. The spots
came to light when activists
took part in a walk against
Gender-Based Violence (GBV)
last week in Kampala. The
activists told KCCA “You
must act to guarantee the
safety of girls and women
in the identified spots”.
The black spots are dark,
bushy, dilapidated buildings,
trenches and open drains.
Some of the victims told the
activists that it is common to
find bodies of women who
have been murdered dumped
there. The spots are dwelling
places for robbers, abusive
boda boda riders, rapists and
drug addicts.
Justices; Mike Chibita Justice Alphonse Owiny-Dollo
(Pictured), Percy Tuhaise, and has asked government to raise
Ezekiel Muhanguzi have been the retirement age of judges.
appointed by President Yoweri Owiny-Dollo wants each
Museveni to the Supreme position to get an extension of
Court of Uganda to replace five years; magistrates to retire
their retiring colleagues; at 65, high court judges to
Jotham Tumwesigye, Eldard retire at 65 while judges at the
Mwangusya and Augustine Court of Appeal and Supreme
Nshimye. The latter were sent Court to leave at 75. The
off in a farewell ceremony deputy chief justice aired his
held at the headquarters of remarks at the same ceremony.
the Judiciary on Dec.6. The Owiny-Dollo says Uganda
the new Principal Judge. Zeije
judges also saw off Yorokamu loses seasoned judges to early
has been head of the Mbarara
Bamwine whose term as retirement and as a result, the
High Court, the largest high
Principal Judge ends on judges get employed by other
court circuit in the country.
Christmas day. Museveni countries.
Meanwhile Deputy Chief
appointed Flavian Zeije as
Oxfam calls for gender equality
Oxfam, the international event, that took place at Royal
development and Suites in Bugoloobi, was aimed
humanitarian organization at providing a platform for
has re-emphasized the need to different players to join the rest
have men, women, boys and of the world to commemorate
girls treated equally in an effort the 16 days of activism against
to achieve socio-economic gender-based violence.
transformation. This call was Officials used the same event
made by Jane Ocaya Irama, to showcase the Gender Action
the acting country director Learning System (GALS)
for Oxfam at an event held methodology.
in Kampala on Dec.09. The

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Court paves way for clearing of Bugoma Forest Reserve
Environmental activists
and other Ugandans are up
in arms over a ruling by the
Court of Appeal allowing
the destruction of 22 Square
miles of the disputed Bugoma
Central Forest Reserve land in
Why UBL supported Acholi cultural fete
As part of its corporate
social responsibility, beer
maker, Uganda Breweries
Limited facilitated the
organizing and final
celebration of this year’s
Acholi Cultural Festival with
Shs60 million. Speaking ahead
of the celebrations (held on
Dec.12-14), the company’s
Edgar Kihumuro, who serves
as the brand manager for
Pilsner Larger, said that apart
from selling alcohol to the
community of Acholi, it is
critical for them to support
events such as this one that
are geared towards celebrating
culture, life and heritage.
The sponsorship was made
by Pilsner Larger, one of the
brands for the company. He
also said Pilsner’s sponsorship
Hoima District. The razing of
the forest reserve is to pave way
for sugarcane growing. Justice
Frederick Egonda Ntende
dismissed an application in
which the National Forestry
Authority (NFA) had
was ideal because it is a
true Ugandan beer made
using locally sourced raw
materials and deeply rooted
in the tradition. Dan Kidega,
the special envoy of the
Acholi Cultural leader, said
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sought to temporarily block
implementation of orders of
the High Court. “The applicant
National Forestry Authority
has failed to demonstrate that
there is an imminent threat of
alienating, selling, transferring,
developing, executing or in any
way dealing, interfering with the
status quo of the disputed land,”
Justice Ntende ruled. Critics of
the move decried the obsession
with sugarcane growing and
construction of infrastructure
projects like dams. There is
controversy already with the
much talked about giveaway of
Murchison Falls to an investor to
put up a power dam where the
falls are located.
Pilsner’s support towards
the event was critical as the
cultural institution continues
to promote local culture
which is being threatened
by modernity and western
civilisation.
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week
Finance in last
meet with South
Sudan traders over
compensation
The unending search for
compensation by Ugandan
traders in South Sudan had
another episode after the Min-
istry of Finance held a meeting
with Ernst & Young, the firm
in charge of verification of the
traders’ claims, and the trad-
ers themselves at the ministry
headquarters in Kampala on
Dec. 13. In a letter signed by
Keith Muhakanizi (Pictured),
the Permanent Secretary of the
ministry, the meeting was strictly
for Ugandan South Sudan trad-
ers that had already submitted
their documentation for verifi-
cation. Controversy emerged
mid this year when it emerged
that a group of companies called
‘Super Ten’ were receiving
preferential treatment and had
received compensation of over
Shs10billion while another group
of traders who were mostly ven-
dors and with small businesses
struggled to get even a penny
ever since they were put out of
business when war broke out in
South Sudan.
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NATO’s 70th anniversary exposes differences
Differences among leading members
of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
(NATO) were exposed as the bloc
gathered to mark its 70 th anniversary
in the UK. French President Emmanuel
Macron referred to NATO as “brain
dead” while US President Donald
Trump has always pressured other
members like Germany to increase
their defence spending. Queen
6 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
Elizabeth welcomed NATO Secretary
General Jens Stoltenberg and the
leaders of the Alliance’s 29 member
countries to London at a Buckingham
Palace reception last week. There
were even more awkward moments
when Canadian Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau, his British counterpart Boris
Johnson and Macron were seen in a
video taunting Trump.
Parliament scorecard back
The African Leadership Institute
revealed plans to revamp the Parliamenta-
ry scorecard after abandoning the initiative
of assessing the performance of MPs in
both Parliament and at their constituencies.
The African Leadership Institute last pub-
lished the Parliamentary scorecard eight
years ago with the annual report used to
inform citizens of the performance of their
representatives at Parliament as well as
demand for accountability from their elect-
ed MPs in Parliament. The performance
evaluation report by the African Leader-
ship Institute came under serious criticism
by MPs in the 7th and 8th Parliament with
many stating that the findings in the report
were exposing them to their voters over
underperformance, absenteeism from the
plenary and committee meetings. The last
nail in the coffin for the report release was
when the report highlighted First Lady
Janet Museveni as one of the worst-per-
forming MPs in her then Ruhama County,
a seat she left after leaving active politics in
the 9th Parliament. David Pulkol, Director
of the African Leadership Institute said that
they are not witch-hunting any member of
parliament but helping in improving MPs
performance on parliamentary work as
well as improve on Uganda’s democracy.
Humour Did you know?
The average mammal
takes 21 seconds to empty
its bladder?

President Museveni led an anti-corruption walk in the country. No one will blame you if you’ve
never bothered to time yourself on
the toilet. But you may be interested
to know that researchers from the
Georgia Institute of Technology found
that most mammals weighing more
than six pounds take 21 seconds to
pee. According to Live Science, this
oddly consistent time is due to the
fact that the urethra is “appropriately
scaled” to be a “flow-enhancing
device.” And apparently, the perfectly
enhanced flow takes 21 seconds to
complete. It’s one of the perfect did
you know facts to try at home!

Heavy rains across the country has left roads and homes flooded and several lives lost.

Japan is suffering from Ninja

shortage. That if you ever dreamed of
being a ninja, now might be the time to
make it a reality. The Japanese city of
Iga, which has a rich history of martial
arts masters and claims to be the
birthplace of the ninja, is suffering from
a ninja shortage, despite the fact that
they’re willing to pay salaries as high
as $85,000 for the performative ninjas
willing to take on the job of staffing
Museveni revealed that his massive weight loss is a deliberate move to shed off fat. their annual ninja festival.

Dec. 13 - 19 2019 7

Inbox
Letters are
welcome !
The Editor welcomes short and
concise letters from our esteemed
readers on topical issues. Please
send them to:
The Editor, The Independent
Publications Ltd,
P.O Box 3304,
Plot 82/84 Kanjokya St,
Kamwokya.
Kampala,Uganda.
Email: editor@independent.co.ug
Empower women to vote
We need to involve
women more in elections.
Many women are left out
because probably they
lack knowledge. One of
the things this current
government has tackled
seriously is empowering the
female child. This means we
are empowering the nation
because those women are
the mothers of this nation.
So it’s high time we let them
shine. Women make up the
biggest percentage of our
population. Symbolically,
the more their empowered
the better it is for our
country. And when they
make right choices, choosing
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8 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
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Irresponsible journalism on firepower
Refer to: “Who’s buying the
biggest guns in East Africa?
Latest in Uganda, Rwanda,
Kenya, Burundi firepower”
(The Independent Nov.29).
Sincerely I would call this
irresponsible journalism. the
un ending confilict in the great
lakes region with Uganda at the
centre should not be amplifed
by any responsible citizens.
The Independent should rise
above this. Most people don’t
underestimate the role of the
mass media during tension
capable leaders, the more
we see our country heading
to the middle income
status. Empowering the girl
child during this era is for
the benefit of the country
and the future generation.
, I strongly urge every
Ugandan, most especially
the males, to allow women
to vote. There are stories of
women either being denied
the vote or being forced to
vote on the side of the males,
be it related or not. Men
should let women make
their own choices.
Kevin Seguya
kelvinsegz@gmail.com
and conflict among societies or
states and it is the arms mer-
chants in the relative safety of
the European capitals who cel-
ebrate all the way to the bank.
In the remote jungles of conflict
arena, your war drums can only
presage those sinister motives
of the smooth talking leaders of
the nations that are involved.
Bankrupt would in my words
describe these leaders who
think firepower is all that is
required. And I know most
Ugandans who read the figures
Social insecurity drives corruption
Refer to: “Understanding
Kajura’s woes: Why many
of our politicians go broke
after leaving cabinet even
though we think they are
rich” (The Independent Dec.
02). Mwenda, Mahatma
Gandhi cautioned us about
some of the things that will
destroy us being: Politics
without principles; Pleasure
without conscience, and
Wealth without work. The
perception that our politicians
are obscenely rich (corrupt)
and therefore coveted is a
paradox. It is also a natural
law that one easily loses
what he/she didn’t work
BUNDLES IN TOWN
DATA
News analysis Health Business
China unlocks Handling holiday Cipla sinks into
Uganda agriculture season stress Shs14.5bn loss
Issue No. 601 Dec. 06 - 12 2019
Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8
Besigye
marking his 30
year fight with
Museveni
Ahead of 2021
www.independent.co.ug
in this article feel it is safe but if
one looks at conflicts and their
progression, tactics play a sig-
nificant role in any eventuality.
For that reason, for a country,
it makes sense to have friends
as neighbours or at least avoid
conflict with neighbours at all
costs. Guns of whatever make
are made for the sole purpose
of killing and that is not one
thing any country should be
proud of.
Godfrey Kambere
for. The fundamentals of
corruption in Uganda are the
social insecurity, which was
planted through Structural
Adjustment Policy (mass
retrenchment/unemployment)
of civil servants. Since then,
social insecurity due to
dramatic and exponential
unemployment (87%) feeds
corruption and grabbing
whatever is in sight. In other
words, including President
Yoweri Museveni, all
Ugandans suffer from serious
social, economic and political
insecurity.
Anonymous
CONNECTING COMMUNITIES

Atubo’s disappointing lamentations
By Andrew M. Mwenda
Why African elites are deluded to think the “international
community” has our best interests at heart
L
ast week, I read with sadness, dis-
appointment, disillusionment and
frustration an article in Daily Monitor
by former minister Omara Atubo. He
was explaining why he signed a petition to
ask the International Criminal Court (ICC)
to indict President Yoweri Museveni. I have
known Atubo for decades and have always
held him in high esteem as among the most
thoughtful politicians in Uganda. His article
is widely quoted below to provide perspec-
tive.
“The long story of Museveni in power for
33 years now has been characterised by mil-
itarism, corruption, abuse of human rights
and freedoms, rigging of elections, nepo-
tism, tribalism, power greed, amendment
of the 1995 Constitution, disrespect of and
weakening of Parliament, undermining mul-
tiparty democracy, and violently repressing
Opposition. I am very worried about the
future of Uganda which should be rooted
in strong institutions that can guarantee
stability, peace, unity, development and
humanity. What we have under Museveni is
a strong personal rule, which is not sustain-
able.” Atubo wrote and went on.
“The ICC Petition is a desperate appeal
to an external international body to assist
Uganda solve its problem since there are
now no available internal options. Par-
liament is very weak and works like an
extension of President Museveni and the
Executive. The Judiciary has failed to deliver
justice in all the presidential election and
age limit cases. The ordinary citizen and the
voters are terrified and politically blind. The
churches are divided, compromised and
lack courage to speak for the voiceless. The
elections are militarised, commercialised and
rigged. In the circumstance, the only viable
option is the ICC and the international com-
munity.”
Atubo’s lamentation is neither new nor
unique. It is supported by many Ugandan
(and African) elites who think there are kind
and generous people in the international
community who care deeply about our
destiny and would save us from ourselves.
Many people in the Western world see
themselves as saviors of Africa and therefore
share this view. The problem is that all these
people suffer from historical and even con-
temporary amnesia.
Let us recall that colonialism was justified
on exactly the same basis. It claimed to pro-
mote 3Cs: Christianity to save our souls from
The Last Word
devil worship; Commerce to liberate us from
our poverty and misery; and Civilization to
emancipate us from the tyranny of our cus-
toms and the despotism of our chiefs. What
Africa got instead was land alienation, extor-
tionate taxation, forced labor, mass murder
and racial discrimination. Africa’s struggles
for independence was thus born.
It is true that many post independence
governments have repeated many of the
abuses of colonialism and in some cases in
worse fashion. But it is our responsibility to
improve the quality of governance in our
countries through continued political and
economic struggles. We cannot surrender
such a responsibility to the international
community. To say we have no capacity
to liberate ourselves is to say we have no
capacity to govern our countries. The picture
Atubo presents above is of Ugandans as
helpless victims of Museveni’s misrule and
whose efforts cannot overcome one man.
Atubo does all this in spite of abundant
evidence of the disasters that have visited
those countries that have sought liberation
from the international community. The first
African country to seek international help
for internal governance was the Democratic
Republic of Congo in 1960. The “interna-
tional community” has been engaged in
that country, having its troops there for the
last 28 out of its 59 years of independence.
It is perhaps the most mismanaged country
in Africa. Only recently the so-called inter-
national community intervened in Libya
to liberate it from its psychopathic ruler,
Col. Muammar Gadaffi. Consequently the
Libyan state collapsed. Today that country
is a mosaic of small fiefdoms ruled by
extremely violent and belligerent warlords.
In Somalia the process of state consoli-
dation was undermined by external inter-
ventions of a humanitarian variety leading
to prolonged anarchy. The Central African
Republic, which today is under management
by international community, is a disaster.
In Rwanda, the worst and swiftest genocide
in history happened under the watchful
eye of the international community with its
peacekeepers. It took the bold action of Paul
Kagame and his RPF to end the carnage and
launch a highly successful project of state
reconfiguration and economic reconstruc-
tion. What more can’t Atubo see?
The liberation of Uganda from Museveni’s
(or anyone else’s) misrule cannot be surren-
dered to the international community. It is
opinion
our responsibility as Ugandans. Foreigners
can never know the internal accommoda-
tions, compromises and concessions that
are necessary for us to build our country.
Neither can we trust that their interests are
our interests. Atubo seems to think these
foreigners would be altruistic, devoid of
their own pecuniary interests that may con-
flict with our own. This naivety led many
pre-colonial African chiefs to sign off their
independence with disastrous results.
But even if the international community
were sincere and altruistic, the results would
not be any different. Atubo knows or should
know how the most genuine foreign effort
to liberate Uganda, that by Tanzania’s illus-
trious leader, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere to
remove Idi Amin, led to disaster. In spite of
his good and altruistic intentions combined
with his lack of imperial ambitions over our
country, Nyerere’s removal of Idi Amin led
to state collapse. Anarchy spread. It was not
until we had our own internal civil war and
one side secured a decisive military victory
that Uganda was re-launched on the process
of state and economic reconstruction.
Whatever his weaknesses, Museveni has
presided over a prolonged period of political
stability and economic growth that has led
to significant democratisation and poverty
reduction. To ignore this reality especially by
Atubo would be an act of overt hypocrisy.
He served in Museveni’s cabinet in the late
1980s and returned in the early to mid 2000s.
Certainly Atubo could not have served in a
government that was of such criminal nature
as he describes. Otherwise the principle of
collective responsibility should put him in
the dock as well.
There are many governance problems in
Uganda: state sponsored violence against
the opposition, corruption and intimida-
tion, etc. However, these problems will not
be solved by one government and in one
generation but through continuous struggle
over decades. Atubo admires America and
he should take a leaf from it. They have
had problems of slavery, apartheid, mass
incarceration etc. The American system has
improved over the last 250 years through
small but steady improvements without
seeking foreign interference. Atubo should
borrow a leaf from America for under-
standing our journey.
amwenda@independent.co.ug
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 9
cover story

Uganda after
Museveni
Pundits weigh in on transition

By Ian Katusiime and Patricia Akankwatsa

10 Dec. 13 - 19 2019 Opposition politicians Dr Kizza Besigye and Bobi Wine at a meeting

President Museveni
P
resident Yoweri Museveni,
75, will be making 34 years
in power next month. He
once again plan to contest
for another term – the sixth
term in the 2021 presidential
elections amidst calls from members of
the opposition and a section of the public
that he retires.
His party, the National Resistance
Movement (NRM) endorsed him as the
sole party flag bearer February, two years
before the 2021 polls.
However, one of the issues that a sec-
tion of political leaders and experts agree
is that at one point, Museveni, will leave
power.
However, one question that lingers in
the minds of many is how the presidency
will look like after the long serving leader
is out of the picture.
The emergence of Robert Kyagulanyi
aka Bobi Wine on the political scene has
fuelled the clamour for a new era of polit-
ical leaders in Uganda particularly those
that do not have a military background.
Bobi Wine, Kyadondo East MP, has
called time on Museveni’s reign and is
hoping to ride on the wave of a youth
vote to trump Museveni at the ballot
with his People Power movement. He has
already declared his intention to stand for
president.
Godber Tumushabe, the Associate Direc-
tor at the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic
Studies (GLISS), a Kampala think tank, says
the person who comes after Museveni will
likely not wield as much control as his prede-
cessor.
This seems to be a widely held view
due to a possible vacuum of power after
Museveni. Whether this means Uganda
will be more democratic as a nation is
hard to tell.
Analysts say there is likely opening up
of political space and a stronger civil soci-
ety and more empowered institutions like
it is in Kenya following the exit of Daniel
Arap Moi.
“No matter who becomes president,
they will not have as much control of
state and non-state institutions”, he says.
On the possible democratic gains for
Uganda with Museveni out, Tumushabe
says this will depend on “how the process
of his exit managed.”
“How it plays itself out, say for exam-
ple sudden death will bring its own
challenges. It could be worse as the new
leader tries to exert control.”
According to Tumushabe, a negotiated
transition where there is a peaceful and
dignified retirement for Museveni could
smoothen the transition.
“Anything should not be ruled out.
There may be lots of people flexing mus-
cles but these things usually come as sur-
prises,” he adds.
Gen. Mugisha Muntu, the leader of
the Alliance for National Transformation
(ANT) has been the foremost voice in
advocating for preparation to manage
cover story
change once Museveni is out of the way.
“If we don’t have structures to manage
change, then it will be a wasted effort.
Museveni is not the issue,” he has always
said.
Joel Senyonyi, the spokesperson of Peo-
ple Power says the movement is working
to ensure that it is not a matter of chang-
ing the head of state currently under
Museveni.
“We do not want mere change of fig-
ureheads. We want change in systems, a
change in form of governance. We want
Museveni to leave, and we are working
hard for that to happen.”
Senyonyi tells The Independent that ser-
vant leadership is key for a post-Museve-
ni era to thrive.
“We want servant leaders. Many times
Mr Museveni has told you that he is not
your servant,” he said.
He also weighs in on the fears of uncer-
tainty that many have talked about in the
wake of a Museveni exit.
“That propaganda is spread by Musev-
eni himself. That there will be chaos and
so on. I mean this country does not start
and end with him.” He says, adding that
the fear is spread by Museveni and his
people.
FDC Deputy Secretary General, Harold
Kaija, told The Independent in October this
year that FDC has an unusual plan. “We
are looking at a way of ensuring Museve-
ni does not appear on the ballot,” he said.
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 11
cover story
The FDC delegates conference in November 2017. The opposition party, FDC has presented the toughest challenge to Museveni and NRM.
Future of NRM
Political pundits have often wondered
whether NRM can have the same strength
and numbers without its founder and
leader.
Museveni usually gets his way in par-
liament by summoning the NRM caucus
whose numbers dwarf the opposition.
Critics say Museveni’s towering over
the party has made emergence of other
leaders in the NRM difficult.
When Museveni fell out with his for-
mer right hand man Amama Mbabazi,
who was NRM secretary general, the par-
ty amended its rules to have an appointed
secretary general as opposed to an elected
one. In the end, Mbabazi was purged.
As an elected secretary general, Mbaba-
zi had considerable influence in the party
and also rose to the position of Prime
Minister.
However, Francis Babu, an NRM his-
torical and former minister, disputes the
narrative that NRM may disintegrate or
even become weak as a party due to a
supposed vacuum once Museveni is no
longer in the picture.
“Is FDC stronger or weaker with-
out Besigye?” Babu asks. “I think that
answers the question. Leaders come with
12 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
different charisma. The question is; would
it be advantageous or not?”
Using the example of the Conservative
Party in Britain which has shuffled three
leaders in as many years, when it is in
power, Babu says different leaders can
emerge at different times depending on
the circumstances.
He says the NRM has had leaders like
James Wapakhabulo, Eriya Kategaya,
who have passed on and others like
Mathew Rukikaire and much younger
ones could take up the reins.
“It is presumptuous for anyone to say
that the party will not exist or will not
have leaders once Museveni is no longer
there,” Babu tells The Independent.
“How the subsequent leaders would
use their charisma is difficult to tell, you
cannot judge.” Babu also refutes the claim
that succession is a taboo topic in the rul-
ing party.
“Party organs discuss it (succession),
they just don’t do it radically. Do not
underestimate quiet discussions,” he says.
That aside, Babu says Uganda should
learn from Tanzania where the first pres-
ident, Julius Nyerere, groomed leaders in
the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
“He trained Ali Hassan Mwinyi, Benja-
min Mkapa and Jakaya Kikwete through
various structures. They are all a product
of the leadership training and charisma
of Nyerere.” However, this appears to be
seen in Uganda under the reign of Presi-
dent Museveni.
Fighting corruption
On the priorities of the next Head of
State, Cissy Kagaba, the executive direc-
tor of the Anti-Corruption Coalition
Uganda (ACCU), says fighting corruption
should be on top of the agenda during the
post Museveni era.
“When Museveni was coming into
power, he came up with a programme
hoping to do things differently. He came
up with a 10-point programme and no.7
was to fight corruption but he hasn’t been
successful,” Kagaba says.
“I believe any new leader that comes
up after him, will try to take action
because of public outcry,” she says.
Museveni’s latest attempt at dealing
with corruption was leading an anti-cor-
ruption walk in Kampala on Dec.4. The
walk was heavily criticised as yet another
passive attempt by Museveni at dealing
with graft.
Edward Mwebaze, the acting country

director for Oxfam told The Independent
on Dec.10 that the anti-corruption walk
and the talk about the anti-graft bill that
is yet to be processed are actions that
are merely aimed at showing the people
that Museveni is serious about fighting
corruption.
He said the opposition has used
corruption scandals in their political
work to undermine Museveni’s regime
which is why many people are saying
the President has to keep threatening
those he thinks are corrupt.
Kagaba states that the other issue on
the next leader’s to-do-list should be a
reform of public administration which
has spiraled out of control in Museveni’s
reign.
“I think what the new leader should
do is reduce on the number of very many
districts created because cresting new
districts means having more Members of
Parliament, means increasing on money
spent on salaries.”
She says the money to cater for the cost
of public administration can be used to
improve other services.
“There is a lot of impunity within the
system and I believe if we bring in a new
breed with a new momentum, things can
change.”
President Museveni took over power
and swore in on Jan.29, 1986, declaring
a new dawn of “a fundamental change”
in a country that had been ruined by war
and tussle for power. A lot has happened
in his 33-year reign with calculated
moves to consolidate his power, co-opt
opponents and a mix of different moves
to win elections.
In his speeches, Museveni has
displayed an obsession with the future
often saying: “We are here to solve
Africa’s problems.” He speaks with the
conviction of a man with time on his
side.
Speaking at the African Union meeting
in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in February
this year, Museveni, took a swipe at
African chiefs whom he blamed for
easy spread of colonialism. He advised
his fellow leaders to focus on strategic
security to defend Africa from foreign
aggression.
However, Museveni’s thirst for power
and deep entrenchment in various
spheres of Uganda society has not
stopped aspiring contenders to challenge
his hold on power and by extension,
planning for a possible near future when
he is not in charge.
Sources who have claimed to be
actively campaigning for Muhoozi
Kainerugaba, the First Son, to take over
the presidency have told The Independent
in the past that there is an underground
movement to pave way for Muhoozi, a
Lieutenant General, so that in case of an
Francis Babu
Godber Tumushabe
eventuality, it is rolled out.
Spire Sentongo, a columnist at The
Observer recently has been one of those
writing about a post Museveni era in a
series titled “Things to do after Museveni
goes”. He wrote in one of his columns,
“There are many Ugandans (who have)
resigned to their dread and almost
convinced against nature and history that
Museveni is here to stay forever.”
“And this is understandable in
our circumstances where many state
institutions appear to be acting for his
perpetuity; where dissent and freedom of
association are increasingly criminalised,
”he added.
Power exits in Africa
Exits from power of long serving
African leaders tends to lead to
unpredictable events. In Kenya, as the
cover story
reign of former Kenyan president, Daniel
Arap Moi, came to an end in 2002 as a
result of local and international pressure,
he picked on Uhuru Kenyatta, the son
of the country’s founding president,
Jomo Kenyatta, to take over. Uhuru
was defeated in the 2002 election but he
contested in subsequent elections and
won.
Although tapping Uhuru, now Kenya’s
fourth president, as his successor was
scorned by some as sowing seeds of a
political dynasty, others argue that a
named successor makes the process of
managing transition a less murky one.
Former Angolan president José Eduardo
dos Santos named his right man and
former defence minister, Joao Lorenco, as
successor who won the election and took
over in 2017. The two, however, have
fallen out.
In other instances, the aftermath of
regime changes has proved a difficult
time which makes the time after
Museveni a strange affair to envisage.
When former Zimbabwean vice
president Emmerson Mnangagwa took
over from Robert Mugabe after a coup
in 2017, Zimbabweans and analysts say
he has become a worse dictator than the
man he ousted.
Supporters and opponents of
President Museveni also draw on events
like happened in Sudan this year in
discussions on Museveni’s exit from
power. Omar-el-Bashir was ousted from
power by his military after months of
protests in the capital Khartoum made
his position increasingly untenable.
Like Museveni, the military was a key
constituency for Bashir.
Museveni made remarks in that regard
to warn opponents at an event in Naguru,
Kampala, while commissioning a CCTV
National Command and Control Centre.
“Security is my area, my constituency.
That is my battle ground. If you want
to challenge Uganda, you should look
for another constituency. We are going
to defeat these criminals. This is just the
beginning,” he said.
Bashir was detained in April by his
top Generals after protests became
uncontrollable. Currently, Sudan has a
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok who was
chosen by the protest movement and he
rules in concert with a sovereign council
which has military and civilian members.
In other worst-case scenarios like
in Gambia, former president Yahya
Jahmmeh held his country at ransom
as he refused to give up power when
he was defeated in an election. It was
after a combined force of West African
troops intervened that Jammeh was
forced out and he sought refuge in
Equatorial Guinea.
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 13
NEWS ANALYSIS
East Africa’s abnormal rainfall
Meteorologists warn of more rains in coming weeks
By Ronald Musoke
T
housands of people continue to be
displaced in eastern and western
Uganda due to heavy rains that
are also wreaking havoc across the
East African region.
More than 30 people in Uganda have
died in the past two weeks as result of
flooding and landslides and the govern-
ment says tens of thousands of people
have been displaced from their homes.
Weather experts say the rains have been
enhanced by a phenomenon known as the
Indian Ocean Dipole and it appears there
will be no let-off in the coming weeks.
The term ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ refers to
the difference in sea surface temperature
between the western and eastern poles of
the ocean.
Godfrey Mujuni, the Manager Data
Centre at the Uganda National Meteoro-
logical Authority (UNMA) told The Inde-
pendent on Dec. 09 that the Indian Ocean
stretches from the East African Coast
(western part of the ocean) to the eastern
side (Australia and Indonesia).
And, occasionally, either pole or region
River Nile burst its banks in West Nile recently cutting off the region from the rest of the country.
14 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
of the ocean goes through periodic warm-
ing bringing with it what meteorologists
call the positive Indian Ocean Dipole. A
positive Dipole is said to cause a rise in
water temperatures in the ocean by up
to 2°C leading to an increase in water
vapour in the atmosphere that later falls
as rain.
“A positive IOD (in the western por-
tion of the ocean) normally favours the
whole East African hinterland bringing
a lot of rain and when it does not favour
the region, it causes drought conditions,”
Mujuni says.
Mujuni explains that it is this event that
has caused ‘above normal’ rains through-
out eastern Africa including Uganda since
October this year. Ethiopia, northern and
southern parts of Somalia, eastern South
Sudan, central and northeastern Kenya,
and parts of northwestern and eastern
Tanzania have also been affected.
The rains have also caused several riv-
ers to flood blocking major highways and
other important roads. Early this month,
the Uganda National Roads Authority
(UNRA) issued a travel advisory to peo-
ple travelling to the northwestern region
of West Nile to use alternative routes
when the River Nile burst its banks cut-
ting off the road at Pakwach. The road
connects Uganda to South Sudan and the
Democratic Republic of Congo.
The rains have caused destructive
flooding in several low-lying areas and
landslides in the mountainous regions of
Bundibugyo in the West and the Bududa
areas in the eastern region. Bundibugyo
has so far registered over 20 deaths fol-
lowing devastating landslides on Dec. 07.
Diana Tumuhimbise, the Red Cross
branch manager for Rwenzori region said
the humanitarian agency had on Dec.
08 recovered 12 bodies from the deluge
while one person was rushed to hospi-
tal with serious injuries. However, the
humanitarian agency later updated its
fatality count to 22 on Dec.09.
“Our team continues to recover more
bodies including some that are trapped
by cocoa trees in the Bundibugyo hills. It
is a very devastating moment,” the Red
Cross said, adding that other affected areas
include; Bulambuli, Butaleja, Manafwa,
Namisindwa, Mbale, Sironko, Amuru,
Kasese, Nakapiripirit and Otuke Districts.

Musa Ecweru, the Minister
of State for Disaster Prepared-
ness said a swift assessment
conducted by the government
in the most affected moun-
tainous districts of Bududa,
Sironko, Manafwa, Namisind-
wa and Mbale has placed the
number of displaced persons
at 25,000 while some 85,000
households were affected and
21,500 hectares of crop and
plantation damaged.
Still, in the low-lying east-
ern Uganda regions of Teso
and Bukedi, at least 55,000
people have been displaced
and over 120,000 hectares of
crop destroyed by floods. The
northern part of the country
has also suffered losses of crop
and home destruction due to
flooding.
This period of the year is
supposed to be the “rainy
season” in Uganda and much
of East Africa, according to
weather experts, but the rains
which are falling this year
have been described as ‘above
average.’
The rains have also left dev-
astation in several countries
in the region with close to
one million South Sudanese
affected, according to the
United Nations Office for the
Coordination of Humanitari-
an Affairs (OCHA).
Central African Republic
has seen more than 100,000
affected, Burundi (3,800 with
2 deaths), Democratic Repub-
lic of Congo (200,000 with 40
deaths), Tanzania (1,100, 44
deaths) and Kenya (160,000,
125 deaths).
Somalia has seen more
than 547,000 people affected
with 17 people dead, Ethiopia
(570,000, 23 deaths), Djibouti
(150,000, 9 deaths) and Sudan
(426,000). The experts say
the current rainfall season is
expected to be one of the wet-
test on record since the 1980s.
Ecweru said the govern-
ment had released Shs 20bn
(US$5.5 million) under the life
saving and rescue phase to
address the landslides situa-
tion in the mountainous and
in flooding areas.
The minister said the funds
will be used for procurement
of relief food, tarpaulins, and
blankets, drugs for water
borne diseases, inflatable boats
and culverts for fixing washed
away bridges.
Disaster management
needs to be prioritized
Looking at the devastation
that the floods and landslides
have put on the country, Dr.
William Olupot, the Director
of Nature and Livelihoods
told The Independent on Dec.08
that it is high time disaster
management was prioritised
and mainstreamed into gov-
ernment programmes.
He told The Independent
that since the warning of
heavy rains was published as
way back as September, the
response in terms of putting
on notice the people in both
The Uganda Red Cross staff braved the floods to rescue landslide victims on Dec.08.   COURTESY PHOTO
low lying zones and highlands
should have been robust and
the allocation of resources for
emergency relief should have
been swifter, Olupot said.
Robert Kwesiga, the Secre-
tary General of the Uganda
Red Cross Society concurs
with Dr. Olupot noting that
climate change should be a
concern for Uganda.
“It is becoming our reality
as we have had challenges
of un-anticipated weather
changes despite guidance
and predictions from the
weather experts,” Kwesiga
said in November as the Red
Cross launched a fundraising
campaign of up to Shs1bn in
anticipation of adverse weath-
er events.
“We cannot wait to see
experiences like Cyclone Idai
that Mozambique experi-
enced in March this year with
over 1000 lives lost,” he said,
“Uganda needs to take on
preparedness as opposed to
struggling when unprecedent-
ed disasters hit.”
This is not the first time that
Uganda is experiencing flood-
ing and landslides leading
to death of dozens of people
and thousands displaced. Last
year, at least 34 people were
killed when a landslide rolled
down the slopes of Mount
Elgon in eastern Uganda,
wrecking homes and burying
people and animals.
In 2012, landslides
destroyed three villages in the
region while at least 100 peo-
ple were killed in a landslide
in Bududa in March 2010.
Bumper harvest
On a positive note, seasonal
forecasts by the USAID-spon-
sored Famine Early Warning
Systems Network (FEWS-
NET) say that inspite of the
recent second-wave of floods
and landslides, much of the
eastern Africa region has
significantly benefitted from
Dec. 13 - 19 2019
news analysis
the ongoing above-average
rainfall, with well-above nor-
mal cropping and rangeland
conditions and replenishment
of surface and groundwater
resources.
As such, crop and livestock
production are generally
expected to be above-average,
though agricultural produc-
tion reduced in areas that
were severely flooded or have
been affected by locusts.
In Uganda, cropping condi-
tions over much of northern,
southern and eastern regions
are currently very good with
much of the early planted
maize, beans and other puls-
es currently available in the
eastern, central, northwestern
regions.
Meanwhile, crops in the
southwest are currently in
advanced reproductive stages
and in better-than-average
conditions. These crops are
likely to be harvested in late
December.
However, Joachim Ocan, a
local leader in Lamwo District
in northern Uganda told Ugan-
da Radio Network, a local news
agency recently that there is
looming hunger in his area.
Ocan said crops such as
maize and beans planted in
this second season have not
survived the harsh weather, as
a result of heavy rains.
15
NEWS ANALYSIS
Refugees in Bidi Bidi settlement in Yumbe district in 2017.   (FILE PHOTO)
More money spent on Uganda’s
humanitarian crisis-Oxfam
Local NGOs face challenges of financial management,
fundraising personnel and governance
By Julius Businge
A
new report published by Oxfam in-
dicates that Uganda received more
funds for humanitarian support for
the year 2017 compared to 2016.
Dubbed “Money Talks II” Assessing
Humanitarian Funding flows to local and
national actors in Uganda from 2016-2017”,
the report was unveiled on Dec.10 at Mestil
Hotel in Kampala by Minister for Relief,
Disaster Preparedness and Refugees Hilary
Onek, who applauded donors for support-
ing efforts by government to improve liveli-
hoods for the poor.
The two years that are covered by the
report show an unprecedented and contin-
uous influx of refugees into Uganda, which
put enormous pressure on communities, the
land and the capacities of humanitarian and
development actors.
Large scale humanitarian responses were
required to meet the breadth and scale of
need, the report says. Uganda currently has
16 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
approx.1.4million refugees according to data
from government.
Anita Kattakuzhy, the humanitarian poli-
cy advisor on localisation at Oxfam present-
ed the findings of the study.
She said in a bid to support the significant
increase in humanitarian need, the amount
of International Humanitarian Assistance
(IHA) flowing to Uganda more than dou-
bled over the two years from $154million to
$348.6million. Out of this figure, the share of
this provided to Local and National Human-
itarian Actors (LNHAs) fell, however, from
13% in 2016 to 8% in 2017.
The government of Uganda was the
largest recipient in both years in line with
signposted transition planning through
UNHCR’s Comprehensive Refugee
Response Framework (CRRF) in Uganda,
but the proportion of total annual IHA
received by the government fell from 8.3% in
2016 to 4.7% in 2017.
LNHAs benefited from increases in vol-
umes of direct funding between 2016 and
2017 but fell further behind international
agencies in terms of the proportion of overall
IHA received. Although volumes of indirect
funding to LNHAs increased from $20.6mil-
lion in 2016 to $29.3million in 2017, they
received a lower percentage of total annual
IHA due to the large growth in total aid
from 2016 to 2017.
United Nations agencies and other multi-
laterals passed increasing volumes of fund-
ing to the government of Uganda (up from
$12.8million in 2016 to $16.3million in 2017)
but not at a level commensurate with the
overall growth of IHA to the country.
UN funding levels to the Uganda Red
Cross Society stayed the same from 2016 to
2017 at $1.8million, despite a doubling of
IHA over the period.
On the other hand, funding to national
NGOs by UN agencies fell from $3million in
2016 to $1.9million in 2017.
This was attributed to the struggle by UN
agencies to commit fully to the localisation
agenda due to increased compliance require-

ments either internally or from donors.
In addition, the report indicates that inter-
national NGOs showed a growing trend to
pass funds down to National NGOs (such
funding increased from $1m in 2016 to
$4.1million in 2017) but they provided min-
imal levels of funding to local NGOs – just
$0.2 million in 2017.
This, according to the report, perhaps
reflects both poor visibility beyond known
actors and the fact that the increased com-
pliance standards that NGOs are required to
pass onto the transaction chain are bringing
caution in passing funds down.
Improved partnerships
The report says that the quality of part-
nerships between international intermediary
agencies (UN and INGO) and LNHAs has
improved in the two years of this study peri-
od and there are is growing sense of trust
and a greater desire for reciprocity in such
relationships.
However, the report says donors’ reduced
appetite for risk and the effect of more rigor-
ous compliance requirements are apparent.
The INGO personnel acknowledge a gap
between the spirit of intended partnerships
and the realities forced upon them due to
short-term funding, short-lead-in times for
requests for proposals and increasing com-
pliance requirements.
As a result, international agencies selec-
tively share funding opportunities and thus
limit the access of national agencies to infor-
mation on funding.
Local actors perceive this filtering to be
driven by international agencies’ business
models which require them to strengthen
their respective funding portfolios, the report
says.
It adds that national and local NGOs face
challenges related to financial management,
fundraising. These include personnel and
governance which makes it difficult for them
to access funding directly.
Participants at the report launch unani-
mously agreed that should be strict mon-
itoring and evaluation of projects that are
donor funded to prevent a repeat of reported
misuse of funds for the past projects by both
government and NGO workers.
Recommendations
The report has recommendations for the
government of Uganda, donor governments,
local, national agencies and international
agencies. For the government, it suggests
there should be strengthening of the minis-
try of finance’s capacity and commitment to
the provisions of the Public Finance Man-
agement Act. It urges the ministry to pro-
gressively use its existing contingency fund,
established to provide funding for responses
to natural disasters and other unforeseen
circumstances, to support local actors to
respond.
The report says the government should
also engage in coordinated dialogue with
donors, harmonise relevant laws to strength-
en the role of local actors in humanitarian
preparedness and response work including
the NGO Act, the Local Government Act
and the Refugees Act and ensure that all
harmonisation protect humanitarian and
civic space.
It also recommends that government pub-
lishes and disseminate regular updates to
the mapping of national agencies that deliv-
er humanitarian action.
For donors, the report encourages infor-
mation sharing channels; either existing or
new that are fully inclusive of national and
international responders which can be used
to promote the transparency of humanitari-
an funding flows.
Donors must ensure that UN and
INGO-funded partners transparently state
and deliver against concrete milestones;
ring-fence funds targeting local actors, who
have strong institutional capacity-strength-
ening components that include overhead
costs. Donors are also encouraged to har-
monise and simplify financial reporting
requirements.
Local and national agencies, are urged to
use a collective voice to define with inter-
national agencies, standard policies in areas
He said there
should be a
special fund
created to
boost internal
capabilities
for NGOs to go
about their work
such as pay scales, organizational capacity
assessments, and reporting requirements;
expand on diversification of the funding
base and invest in learning activities.
For international agencies, the recom-
mendations are that, under the leadership of
United Nations High Commission for Refu-
gees (UNHCR), they should work with the
Office of the Prime Minister and donors to
strengthen a strategic vision and mapping of
the division of labour between international
and national agencies towards the refugee
response over time.
It also urges them to strengthen equitable
partnership approaches with other actors;
encourage dialogue with donors on matters
funding and commit to practical methods for
building mutual accountability mechanisms.
This development comes after two
months when the government announced
results of the NGOs validation exercise that
NEWS ANALYSIS
was aimed at identifying and eliminating
NGOs operating illegally.
A total of 12, 089 were ordered by Internal
Affairs State Minister Obiga Kania to stop
operations until they are validated. Kania
directed the Police, Financial Intelligence
Authority (FIA), banks, hotels, districts,
sub-county authorities and other actors to
crosscheck the status of any organisation
before dealing with them.
The Government had earlier in August,
2019 given all NGOs without valid permits
an ultimatum of a month to validate their
credentials or be de-registered.
According to the validated National NGO
Register (UNNR) dated September 07, 2019,
Uganda has a total of 2,118 NGOs.
90% cash for the poor
Minister for Relief Hilary Onek, said
that 90% of funding to the Ugandan NGOs
should be invested in programmes that
directly touch the lives of the poor.
He said, the balance (10%) should be for
administration work for the NGOs. His
view, he said, is informed by reports that
most NGOs spend more than 50% of the
funds meant to do humanitarian and devel-
opment-related work on administration
(including heavy paychecks) which does not
transform lives of the poor.
He also called upon NGOs and their
funders to demonstrate high levels of
accountability and transparency for the
money they get from donors.
Onek added that all NGOs must declare
the amount of money received by showing
the source, how it is spent and the results
achieved.
“That is how we will know that you are
doing a good job,” he said and added “as
government we are accountable and we
want everyone to be accountable.”
Denis Alyela, from Humane Africa Mis-
sion – an entity that houses local and nation-
al actors, said that transparency, accountabil-
ity and achieving results in poor commu-
nities requires money but also internal risk
management systems within the NGOs.
He said there should be a special fund cre-
ated to boost internal capabilities for NGOs
to go about their work.
Alyela said the special fund can be
managed by an international agency like
UNHCR or the Office of the Prime Minister
to ensure it is not abused.
He also said international agencies can
support operations of national and local
NGOs through training and mentorship
using their experienced staff.
“With partnerships of this nature, we
can do much to change lives,” Alyela
said. He added that local and national
NGOs should be involved at district level
whenever there is a project that has fund-
ing from donors to ensure that it achieves
the anticipated results.
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 17
NEWS ANALYSIS
Tullow Oil plunges into period
of uncertainty as McDade quits
It is still unclear how the London departures
will impact on Uganda’s oil project
By Ronald Musoke
O
n Dec. 09, Paul Mc-
Dade, Tullow Oil
Plc’s Chief Executive
Officer, and Angus
McCoss, the company’s Explo-
ration Director stepped down
from their positions by “mutual
agreement and with immediate
effect,” sending the company’s
shares on the London Stock Ex-
change on a downward spiral.
Dorothy Thompson imme-
diately replaced McDade in
an acting capacity while Mark
MacFarlane, the executive
vice-president, East Africa, was
appointed as Tullow’s Chief
Operating Officer. Thompson
thanked McDade and McCoss
“for all their hard work and
dedication to Tullow over many
years.”
“They leave behind a busi-
ness that has delivered two
major offshore developments
in Ghana, made significant oil
discoveries in Kenya and Ugan-
da,” Thompson said, “These
remain the key building blocks
of our business today.”
The oil firm, however, said
in a statement that the board
“has been disappointed by
the performance of Tullow’s
business and now needs time to
complete its thorough review of
operations.”
“Whilst financial performance
has been solid, production per-
formance has been significantly
below expectations from the
group’s main producing assets,
the TEN and Jubilee fields in
Ghana,” added the statement
issued on the same day.
Tullow which has a strong
presence on the African conti-
nent also scrapped its dividend
18 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
Tullow’s new CEO Dorothy Thompson
after failing to meet production
targets due to what analysts
say is weak performance by
the company’s flagship assets
in Ghana. Following a pile of
debt, Tullow had since 2015 sus-
pended paying dividends to its
shareholders only reinstating it
this year.
“Despite today’s (Dec. 09)
announcement, the Board
strongly believes that Tullow
has good assets and excellent
people capable of delivering
value for shareholders. We are
taking decisive action to restore
performance, reduce our cost
base and deliver sustainable free
cash flow.”
McDade and McCoss’ res-
ignations marked the exit of
Tullow’s old guard after the
company’s founder Aidan
Heavey departed last year.
McDade replaced Heavey as
Tullow Oil Plc’s chief executive
in April, 2017. Both men were
at the forefront of the compa-
ny’s rapid expansion in Africa
overseeing discoveries from
West Africa to Guyana in South
America.
Analysts say Tullow has been
plagued by technical problems
at its Jubilee field in Ghana
while a delay in completing
a well at the TEN offshore
fields still in Ghana worsened
Tullow’s woes.
But the Irish wildcatter has
also suffered setbacks in East
Africa as final investment deci-
sions for its projects in Uganda
and Kenya have dragged on.
In August this year, Tullow Oil
Plc announced the collapse of
a US$ 900 million farm down
to its local partners Total E&P
Uganda and China National
Offshore Oil Corporation
(CNOOC) and the local indus-
try has been in disarray.
It is still unclear how the Lon-
don departures will impact on
Uganda’s oil commercialization
project which has been drag-
ging on for over a decade.
Tullow which had a market
cap of around US$ 2.6bn after
the slump in it share on Dec.
09, expects its net debt to stand
at around US$ 2.8bn at the end
of 2019, and US$ 2.6bn at the
end of 2020. The group also
slashed its capital expenditure
programme and cut costs at its
operating fields. Tullow has US$
300 million in debt due in 2021
and a further US$ 650 million
in 2022.
Going forward, Tullow said
in light of these new produc-
tion forecasts, there will be a
thorough re-assessment of the
Group’s cost base and future
investment plans in order to
allocate appropriate capital to
the Group’s core production
assets, development projects and
continued exploration. 

The dark side of
plant-based food
There’s more behind that vegan burger than you think
By Agencies
I
f you were to believe newspapers and
dietary advice leaflets, you would prob-
ably think that doctors and nutritionists
are the people guiding us through the
thicket of what to believe when it comes to
food. But food trends are far more political –
and economically motivated – than it seems.
From ancient Rome, where Cura Annonae
– the provision of bread to the citizens – was
the central measure of good government,
to 18th-century Britain, where the econo-
mist Adam Smith identified a link between
wages and the price of corn, food has been
at the centre of the economy. Politicians
have long had their eye on food policy as a
way to shape society. That’s why tariffs and
other trade restrictions on imported food
and grain were enforced in Britain between
1815 and 1846. These “corn laws” enhanced
the profits and political power of the land-
owners, at the cost of raising food prices and
hampering growth in other economic sec-
tors.Over in Ireland, the ease of growing the
recently imported potato plant led to most
people living off a narrow and repetitive diet
of homegrown potato with a dash of milk.
When potato blight arrived, a million people
starved to death, even as the country contin-
ued to produce large amounts of food – for
export to England.
Such episodes well illustrate that food
policy has often been a fight between the
interests of the rich and the poor. No wonder
Marx declared that food lay at the heart of all
political structures and warned of an alliance
of industry and capital intent on both con-
trolling and distorting food production.
Vegan wars
Many of today’s food debates can also be
usefully reinterpreted when seen as part of a
wider economic picture. For example, recent
years have seen the co-option of the vege-
tarian movement in a political programme
that can have the effect of perversely disad-
vantaging small-scale, traditional farming in
favour of large-scale industrial farming.
This is part of a wider trend away from
small and mid-size producers towards
industrial-scale farming and a global food
market in which food is manufactured
from cheap ingredients bought in a global
bulk commodities market that is subject to
fierce competition. Consider the launch of a
whole new range of laboratory created “fake
meats” (fake dairy, fake eggs) in the US and
Europe, oft celebrated for aiding the rise of
the vegan movement. Such trends entrench
the shift of political power away from tradi-
tional farms and local markets towards bio-
tech companies and multinationals.
Estimates for the global vegan food mar-
ket now expect it to grow each year by near-
ly 10% and to reach around US$24.3 billion
by 2026. Figures like this have encouraged
the megaliths of the agricultural industry
to step in, having realised that the “plant-
based” lifestyle generates large profit mar-
gins, adding value to cheap raw materials
(such as protein extracts, starches, and oils)
through ultra-processing. Unilever is par-
ticularly active, offering nearly 700 vegan
products in Europe.
Researchers at the US thinktank RethinkX
predict that “we are on the cusp of the fast-
est, deepest, most consequential disruption”
of agriculture in history. They say that by
2030, the entire US dairy and cattle industry
will have collapsed, as “precision fermen-
tation” – producing animal proteins more
efficiently via microbes – “disrupts food pro-
duction as we know it.”
Westerners might think that this is a price
worth paying. But elsewhere it’s a different
story. While there is much to be said for
rebalancing western diets away from meat
and towards fresh fruits and vegetables, in
India and much of Africa, animal sourced
foods are an indispensable part of main-
taining health and obtaining food security,
particularly for women and children and
the 800 million poor that subsist on starchy
foods. To meet the 2050 challenges for quali-
ty protein and some of the most problematic
news analysis
micronutrients worldwide, animal source
foods remain fundamental. But livestock
also plays a critical role in reducing poverty,
increasing gender equity, and improving
livelihoods.
Animal husbandry cannot be taken out
of the equation in many parts of the world
where plant agriculture involves manure,
traction, and waste recycling – that is, if the
land allows sustainable crop growth in the
first place. Traditional livestock gets people
through difficult seasons, prevents malnu-
trition in impoverished communities, and
provides economic security.
Often, those championing vegan diets in
the west are unaware of such nuances. In
April 2019, for example, Canadian conserva-
tion scientist, Brent Loken, addressed India’s
Food Standards Authority on behalf of
EAT-Lancet’s “Great Food Transformation”
campaign, describing India as “a great exam-
ple” because “a lot of the protein sources
come from plants”. Yet such talk in India is
far from uncontroversial.
The country ranks 102nd out of 117
qualifying countries on the Global Hunger
Index, and only 10% of infants between 6–23
months are adequately fed. While the World
Health Organization recommends animal
source foods as sources of high-quality nutri-
ents for infants, food policy there spearheads
an aggressive new Hindu nationalism that
has led to many of India’s minority commu-
nities being treated as outsiders. Even eggs
in school meals have become politicised.
Here, calls to consume less animal products
are part of a deeply vexed political context.
Likewise, in Africa, food wars are seen in
sharp relief as industrial scale farming by
transnationals for crops and vegetables takes
fertile land away from mixed family farms
(including cattle and dairy), and exacerbates
social inequality.
The result is that today, private interest
and political prejudices often hide behind
the grandest talk of “ethical” diets and plan-
etary sustainability even as the consequences
may be nutritional deficiencies, biodiversi-
ty-destroying monocultures and the erosion
of food sovereignty.
For all the warm talk, global food policy
is really an alliance of industry and capital
intent on both controlling and distorting
food production. We should recall Marx’s
warnings against allowing the interests of
corporations and private profit to decide
what we should eat.
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 19
news analysis

Happier times: South African Airways receives its first leased A350, currently deployed on the Johannesburg –
New York route. Can this fuel-efficient type turn around a heavily loss-making long-haul operation?

South African Airways:

Will it survive?
By agencies

A
Route performance: declining yields as load factors fall
fter writing, South African Airways
has entered bankruptcy protection. The airline has been steadily reducing mainline capacity at Johannesburg since
As yet, it’s unclear what this means 2013, in a bid to cut losses as part of its ‘Long Term Turnaround Strategy’.
for the long-term future of the air-
line, but the airline must show appointed
financial practitioners it can secure the funds
to avoid liquidation according to South Af-
rican law.
The trials and tribulations for South Afri-
ca’s national carrier have been documented
for years. It has not been agile due to politi-
cal interference in commercial decisions – a
challenge for state-owned carriers across the
world. And it has been damaged interna-
tionally by a number of factors. It now seems
a rescue loan may be a bridge too far for the
South African government.

South African Airways fleet: A340s not

suited to hot-and-high Johannesburg
A key pitfall in recent years was the air-
line’s decision to order A340s. These aren’t
well-suited for the challenges of long-range
operations from its hot-and-high hub, Johan-
nesburg (5,500ft). In addition, as fuel prices
rose from 2007, the four-engine type was less
capable than rival twins or higher-capacity Source: OAG Traffic Analyser
quads used by Emirates, among others.

20 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
 news analysis
The majority of long-haul capacity to/from the African
continent is served by non-African carriers. This market
is saturated, yet we see startups attempt to serve such
routes and ultimately fail to make a profit. South African
Airways, even being a legacy carrier of over 80 years’
standing, is no exception.

Source: South African Airways annual reports

Despite the lack of published statements, the trend is

clear. Liabilities have been increasing steadily at 20% p.a.
on average since 2013, from $1.1bn in 2013 to a projected
Source: OAG Traffic Analyser
$3.3bn in 2019 based on this rate. Meanwhile, shareholder
equity has been steadily declining, and unit cost rising.
This can be seen in deteriorating fare performance, as
rivals gain market share and poor load factors (with 76%
the highest in a five year period for South African) force
the carrier to loss-lead to attempt to fill aircraft. This is
particularly telling on its three longest routes – Hong Kong,
New York JFK, and Washington Dulles – with each posting
at least 9% drops. Indeed, the carrier has announced the
suspension of Hong Kong flights, with fares significantly
below the trend curve. Guangzhou will be served instead,
but Johannesburg – Guangzhou has even lower average
fares across all airlines.

Source: South African Airways annual reports

After a promising 2016, losses almost quadrupled in

Source: South African Airways annual reports
Lower competition in Southern African markets
historically meant the airline could enjoy healthy profits on
such routes. However, results from the airline’s short-haul
profit lifelines have been steadily declining.
2017 as costs surged against stagnant revenue. Could the
answer for South African Airways be to park its loss-making
long-haul fleet, and refocus around a simplified short-haul
operation? Until the last reported statement at least, this
side of the business posted small but vital operating profits.
The carrier could also benefit from the long-awaited Single
African Air Transport Market, which 27 nations have signed
an initial commitment to join.
Source: Airline Network News

Cash runs out as debt set to reach $3bn

Ultimately, amidst the network difficulties and strategic
missteps, the crux of the issue crippling South African
Airways is relatively simple: rising costs, debt, and
revenues failing to match. Tellingly, since 2017, the airline
has opted to stop releasing annual statements; a year in
which net losses quadrupled.

Dec. 13 - 19 2019 21
news analysis
Can Africa industrialise
in its present form?
By Dr. Eng. Kant Ateenyi Kanyarusoke:
M-ASHRAE; M-SASEE
T
his is Part 2 of Dr. Eng. Kant Ateenyi
Kanyarusoke’s four part series titled:
` Can Africa industrialise in its pres-
ent form? – Lessons from elsewhere’.
Here he discusses what he calls “enabling
factors for industrialisation”. Wherever the
industrial revolution found root, in form
of manufacturing, there were predisposing
conditions for it. Some conditions repeated
themselves in different countries but others
were unique to specific societies. In this
article, we explore these factors in England
and in continental Western Europe - the pre-
sumed original areas of today’s modernity.
Conditions in England at onset of the
revolution
Many reasons have been given by history
researchers as to why the revolution we
are discussing started in England and not
22 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
Lessons from Europe
anywhere else. Here, we will focus on those
which could be more helpful in today’s
sub-Sahara Africa. These can be grouped
under 4 areas: Geography, Governance,
Intellectual Scientific freedom, and Commer-
cialisation.
Geography availed the inhabitants with
an island separated and protected from
attacks and instability of continental Europe
at the time. It availed many navigable rivers
and plenty of fresh water for both trans-
port and future process industries. The sea
provided the island with deep water river
estuaries, allowing easy and cheap connec-
tion of the hinterland to the rest of the world
for commerce. London city, for example,
developed because of its location on the
Thames-North sea estuary. Huge deposits of
best quality coal and rich iron ore all over the
island were the key raw material precursors
to the revolution. Later, crude oil deposits in
the North Sea were to spark developments
in controlled combustion and chemical pro-
cesses.
Relevant to most countries in sub-Saharan
Africa today, is the observation that prior to
England’s industrial revolution, historians
report one in agriculture. To the authors
however, both revolutions seem to have
been intersecting parts of a creativity and
innovation continuum running through
England in the eighteenth century. Jethro
Tull’s 1701 efforts to improve a seed drill and
Joseph Foljambe’s 1730 ones on the plough
are quite similar to those of 1709 Abraham
Derby on making Pig Iron using coke
instead of charcoal or of Thomas Newcomen
on the 1712 steam power and later, of 1769
James Watt;s innovations on Newcomen’s
engine. The point is that these and other
innovations took place in an era of great
desire - and in a country giving the freedom
- to apply the then existing scientific knowl-
edge in solving Man’s problems. Similar and
concurrent innovations existed in non-me-
chanical sciences applications as well. Thus,
Robert Bakewell’s and Thomas Coke’s work
on selective breeding of domestic animals,

adoption and refinement of crop rotation,
along with land reclamation methods learnt
from the Dutch were effectively used in
a purely British system of legislated land
enclosures to produce large quantities of
food. These in turn led to a rapid population
growth on shrinking ‘free’ land, and thus
drove people to cities, where they could then
provide low cost labour for industrialisation
to meaningfully take off.
Geography and Science aside, histori-
ans point to peace and political stability
provided by a progressive monarchy since
1689 as an important precursor to the rev-
olution. The overthrow of the autocratic
English catholic monarch, King James II
and replacement by his daughter, Mary II
and her protestant Dutch husband William
III as joint rulers ushered in a golden era of
intellectual and commercial freedom. Prot-
estantism encouraged hard work, scientific
enquiry, technological progress, entrepre-
neurship, and intellectualism. It challenged
and overcame Catholicism’s conservatism
of the previous era. With the new mon-
arch’s agreement to submit to parliament,
and pronouncement of the English bill of
rights, it was easier to convince Scotland
to merge its parliament with England’s in
1707, thus forming a most powerful single
political and economic nation, Great Britain
then. The new monarchy eliminated feudal
tolls all over the island, actively supported
entrepreneurs and developed a national
free market system. It set up a formal British
royal intellectual society. Because of the new
found liberty, intellectualism went beyond
formal British nationhood. Informal intellec-
tual societies centred in England, covering
continental Europe and European- settled
Americas were formed. They enabled quick
transmission and cross fertilisation of ideas
and scientific thoughts in Britain. More-
over, intellectuals harassed in countries
still under the yokes of catholic monarchs in
Europe then, found welcoming refuge in free
England. Karl Marx – from Germany - was
one such intellectual. These developments,
therefore, gave England an important head
start in use of science to develop technolo-
gies that would set off and sustain the first
industrial revolution.
The 2nd phase: Industrialisation of
Europe
Industrialisation in continental Europe
lagged Britain’s by about 50 years, or two
generations. It took off first in Belgium after
an English migrant, John Cockerill set up a
series of factories in the coal and mineral-rich
Wallonia region in the socialist South of the
country in mid 1820s. Thus, raw materials
availability and permissiveness to allow
settlement of non-indigenes were the two
key factors responsible for initiating indus-
trialisation in Belgium. Unlike in Britain, it
was not pushed by capitalism nor by mas-
sive rural-urban migration. In fact, the more
urbanised north even lagged the rural south.
This is an important lesson for many African
countries. Yet many other lessons can be
drawn from Germany’s industrialisation. In
spite of having large deposits of iron, coal
and being fairly ahead of Britain in chemical
processes, Germany industrialisation lagged
because of disunity occasioned by a multi-
tude of more than 30 states, each trying to
protect its own little market. Some states had
allowed free migration of English craftsmen
like the Cockerill brothers in 1782/84 and
Irishman William Thomas Mulvay in 1866.
The former copied and built a British – like
textile factory in Ratingen in 1784 while the
latter was to be instrumental in establishing
Iron mining in the Ruhr region. Thousands
of British workers were recruited to mine
coal, start and run coke-based blast furnaces,
manufacture steel for railways and cannons.
It was, however, not until after Chancel-
lor Otto Von Bismark’s 1871 unification of
the German states that the country began
to make huge strides in industrialisation,
establishing itself as the leader of the second
Industrial revolution. Following unification,
the country focused on Technical Education,
Chemical, Mechanical and Electrical Engi-
neering development, quickly overtaking
Britain to acquire world leadership in these
areas and in production and exports of fer-
tilisers, chemicals and automobiles.
The key lessons for today’s Africa provid-
ed by Germany are therefore: Discard the
borders and/or tariff and non-tariff barriers;
eliminate any form of economic discrimi-
nation based on places of origin or on other
irrational sectarian criteria; focus on technical
and engineering education; actively seek and
source willing highly skilled persons from
wherever else, and facilitate their migration
and integration within the local communi-
ties. Proactively support and protect bud-
ding technical enterprises irrespective of
ownership.
If Britain, Belgium and Germany teach
Dec. 13 - 19 2019
news analysis
us how nations could industrialise in peace
times, France shows us how war can lay
seeds for industrialisation. Lacking sufficient
quantities of iron and coal, burdened by a
reactionary conservative aristocratic mon-
archy ruling over a low fertility but largely
rural subsisting population on limited land,
France lagged her neighbours in industri-
alisation. They tried to steal British textile
technology during King Louis VI’s reign but
failed. Even after the 1789 violent overthrow
of the monarchy, take-off was slow, with
many businessmen fleeing to neighbour-
ing Britain. That was to become a blessing
because, there, they and their families learnt
skills that would accelerate railway and loco-
motives building such that by 1850, France
had built the biggest number of locomotives
in Europe. That is lesson number one from
France: Africa’s diaspora who run away
from either economic or political hardships
on the continent need to be acquiring engi-
neering and technical skills wherever they
are, so that when times improve back home,
they, or their offspring can come back and
deploy the skills to industrialise.
Chaos and war financing troubles not-
withstanding, the 1803-1815 Napoleonic
wars and the earlier ones since 1792 availed
coal and iron from conquered Belgium,
helped build rail, road and canal infrastruc-
ture. Additionally, necessity to clothe and
feed large numbers of front line soldiers
helped to establish and grow the textiles
and food canning industries. The sewing
machine was invented by the French in
this era. Later cooperation with Germa-
ny’s Daimler, produced the Peugeot and
Renault cars. Clearly the lesson for African
countries in conflict is that heightened
defence and security requirements in such
situations, should be used to develop local
long term capacity to manufacture related
products, and hence, to industrialise. In
Part 3, we will look at lessons for Africa
from USA, USSR, and Japan.
23
Domestic marine cargo covers
could boost insurance market
Presently importers insure their cargo in
the country of origin through their suppliers
F
By Isaac Khisa
or many decades, Uganda’s
insurers and reinsurers never
imagined that they could
cash in on marine cargo in-
surance business amid the
large volume of business in-
volved in international trade.
This is due to the fact that importers,
for unknown reasons, insured their
cargo on transit via sea, air or land,
with foreign insurers, denying domestic
insurers of millions of dollars, and hurt-
ing their growth.
However the trend is facing a rapid
change, thanks to the government’s
change of tactic insisting that importers
purchase marine cargo insurance from
domestic insurers.
This fulfils the ambition of United
Nations Conference on Trade and Devel-
opment’s (UNCTAD) mooted more
than 40 years ago, which advocated for
domestic insurers to tap into marine car-
go insurance like is the case in Sweden,
Germany and France, for their growth.
Ibrahim Kaddunabi Lubega, the Chief
24 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
Executive Officer at the Insurance Regu-
latory Authority (IRA) of Uganda (IRA)
told The Independent in an interview
that they are rolling out the mandato-
ry domestic purchase of marine cargo
insurance service in partnership with the
Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) effec-
tive January 2020.
Importers will be required to submit
their customs clearance documents
together with the Marine Cargo Insur-
ance Certificate on the URA Single Win-
dow during cargo clearance at the coun-
try’s border points.
“Implementation of the initiative will
be optional for importers during the first
six months of the year,” said Kaddunabi.
“However, starting July 2020, all import-
ers will have to buy Marine Cargo Insur-
ance from domestic insurers. Non-com-
pliant importers will face penalties.”
Currently, importers insure their cargo
in the country of origin, through their
suppliers, a situation industry executives
say makes the country lose millions of
dollars in foreign insurance business as
well as foreign exchange.
Kaddunabi said purchasing marine
insurance from domestic insurers will
also not only benefit domestic insurers
but mostly benefit importers.
“Buying insurance from domestic
insurers will create convenience to the
importers in lodging claim(s) in the
event of a loss or damage to property.
This is because the importer will be
dealing with domestic insurer(s) who are
easy to access,” he said.
“Secondly, there will be faster cover
placement and compensation of claims,
and thirdly; the importer(s) and export-
er(s) will have control on the insurance
placed, scope and terms and conditions,”
he added.
Kaddunabi said buying insurance
from domestic insurers will facilitate
growth of domestic insurers as they will
have more business and more revenue to
facilitate research and development for
the benefit of customers.
Though it is difficult to ascertain the
amount of money that insurers in Ugan-
da lose as a result of importers using
their foreign counterparts, data from the
Intergovernmental Standing Committee
on Shipping based in Zambia, shows that

Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia
send out a minimum of US$500million
annually in insurance premiums. This is
through importing on Cost Insurance &
Freight (CIF) and exporting on Free on
Board (FOB).
Statistics from IRA shows that domes-
tic insurers have recorded a minimal
growth in marine and aviation premi-
ums from Shs 24.5bn (US$6.6million) in
2013 to Shs 33.2bn (US$9million) in 2018.
Yet the value of the country’s exports
and imports have increased from
US$2.8bn and US$6bn to US$3.6bn and
US$7.4bn during the same period under
review, according to Bank of Uganda.
Other countries making similar move
Several African countries including
Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia under their
umbrella organisation, Intergovernmen-
tal Standing Committee on Shipping
(Iscos) are also pursuing similar initia-
tives to end repatriation of millions of
dollars in marine insurance premiums.
The Tanzania Insurance Regulatory
Authority (TIRA) in collaboration with
Insurance Institute of Tanzania (IIT)
has unveiled a digital platform portal
that helps Tanzania importers to buy
insurance covers from domestic insurers
for all imported goods in the country
as required by the amendment of Arti-
cle No. 133 of the Insurance Act of 2009.
The Tanzania Imports Insurance Portal
(TIIP) (www.tiip.co.tz) is currently active
and available for use by all importers,
clearing agents, insurance agents, insur-
ance brokers and companies. The plat-
form covers imports either by road, rail,
sea or air.
Tanzania Revenue Authority now
requires proof of purchase of Tanzanian
marine insurance prior to issuance of
import clearance.
Neighboring Kenya approved the
Marine Cargo Insurance Policy in 2016
to ensure that importers and exporters
insure their goods with domestic insur-
ers instead of using foreign insurers.
Like in Tanzania, Kenya Revenue
Authority requires importers to use
domestic insurers for marine insurance
and it is used as one of the preconditions
during cargo clearance.
Section 20, Subsection (1) of the
Insurance Act, CAP 287 states that “No
insurer, broker, agent or other person
shall directly or indirectly place any
Kenya business other than re-insurance
business with an insurer not registered
in Kenya without the prior approval,
whether individually or generally, in
writing of the Commissioner.”
A paper presented by L.P Buol, the
then chief special programme on insur-
ance at UNCTAD, during the Federation
of Afro-Asian insurers and re-insurers,
in their sixth siting in Nairobi, Kenya, in
1979, states that domestic insurers lose a
substantial amount of business to foreign
insurers because the volume of foreign
trade insurance business tends to be
very large in most developing countries
compared with the volume of business
generated by other classes of insurance
in their domestic market.
“It is no secret that in developing
countries (such as Uganda), out of all
insurance classes, marine cargo, premi-
um wise, is the most promising class of
business,” the paper states.
“Its close connection with import
and export trade, which represents the
fastest exporting sector of the national
economy, makes marine cargo particu-
larly important.”
Educating
customers
will minimise
incidences
of insurance
firms claiming
that their
customer did
not understand
their
obligations
The paper further states that while
domestic insurers tend to rely on
domestic businesses for growth, their
performance is usually minimal owing
to the fact that majority of the popu-
lation is in rural areas, have low per
capital income and have limited aware-
ness.
Another argument in favour of insur-
ing marine cargo locally, is the savings
in foreign exchange which domestic
cover of foreign trade risks might bring
about, the paper adds.
However, the paper states develop-
ing countries need to be cautious in
dealing with exports as importers may
prefer to deal with their local insurers
back home.
UNCTAD at its third session,
affirmed that developing countries
should take steps to enable their
domestic insurance markets to cover
marine cargo insurance markets – tak-
business
ing into account their national eco-
nomic interests as well as the insured
interests – the insurance operations
generated by their economic activities,
including their foreign trade as far as it
is technically feasible.
Insurers’ reaction
Allan Mafabi, CEO of Britam, and
the chairperson of Uganda Insurers
Association said the new development
is welcome as it will facilitate growth
of the country’s insurance sector whose
penetration has remained low.
Uganda’s insurance penetration
stands at less than 1%, making it one of
the lowest in the East African region.
Kenya’s insurance penetration stands
at approximately 2.7%, Tanzania’s at
2.3% and Rwanda at 1%.
On the other hand, Uganda’s gross
underwritten premiums have increased
from Shs463bn (US$125.8million) in
2013 to Shs856bn (US$232.6million) in
2018.
Alex Mbonye, the CEO at the Ugan-
da Shippers Council said they welcome
the new initiative due to the fact that it
will ease importers trouble of chasing
for claims abroad.
“We are also optimistic that the pre-
miums will remain within our econ-
omy and thus help boost the value of
our local currency,” he said.
Meanwhile, Protazio Sande, the
Director Research and Market Devel-
opment at the IRA told The Indepen-
dent that the insurance industry has to
educate prospective customers prior
to selling them any insurance services
including Marine Cargo Insurance ser-
vices so that they purchase their pre-
ferred products and services based on
clear knowledge.
He said educating customers will
minimise incidences of insurance firms
claiming that their customers did not
understand their obligations and thus
deny them compensation in the unex-
pected loss.
“If we continue doing the same thing
and expect different results, then, defi-
nitely, there’s something wrong with
that. We must do things differently,”
Sande said. “We need to be innovative
along the entire insurance value chain
– from product development to claims
payment.”
He added, “The customers that the
industry is dealing with are not interest-
ed in listening to anything else except
fast claims payment.”
Sande stressed that coming up with
various innovations such as micro insur-
ance, bancassurance, and tech-enabled
insurance products without educating
the masses on how to go about it will not
boost the country’s insurance industry.
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 25
business
Jumia expansion hits snag
The company quits Rwanda, Tanzania and Cameroon markets
By Julius Businge
E
-commerce has been
slowly gaining traction
in Africa in recent years.
As a result, the popular
talk has been that e-commerce
firms are making money off
people’s obsession with surfing
and shopping on the internet.
That assertion seems to be
untrue as evidenced by Jumia’s
announcements on quitting the
Rwanda, Tanzania and Camer-
oon markets.
However, the company’s
executives at Jumia Uganda
told The Independent on Nov.08
that the local subsidiary is
doing well.
Jumia listed on the New
York Stock Exchange in April,
becoming the first Africa-fo-
cused start-up worth more
than $1bn, according to the
Financial Times.
Though the shares peaked
$49.77 weeks after its listing,
they [shares] have fallen to
$5.96, giving it a market capi-
talisation of just $458.3million.
This is about a tenth of its all-
time high.
Jumia said the decision to
quit the markets relates to fail-
ure by the online company to
make money to sustain oper-
ations.
The company said they are
engaged in taking e-commerce
to profitability and drive pene-
tration of JumiaPay, an online
payment platform.
“Sometimes we make deci-
sions to change the scope of
countries or categories. . . but
it is in the normal life of a
company to adjust the focus,
but the strategy remains very
much the same,” said Sacha
Poignonnec, the firm’s co-chief
executive.
Jumia makes money from
sales made by vendors that
use their online platform to
sell goods to online shoppers.
The goods include electronics,
home appliances, fashion and
more.
In a statement, Jumia group
26 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
executives said that as part of
their ongoing portfolio optimi-
zation effort, they had come to
the difficult decision to cease
their operations in Tanzania
effective Nov.27.
“It is more important now
than ever to put our focus
and resources where they can
bring the best value and help
us thrive,” the group statement
reads in part.
It adds that while their oper-
ations in Tanzania provided
many opportunities for cus-
tomers and vendors, this deci-
sion would help the company
to achieve greater success in
the future.
However, it said that it
would continue to support
customers to transact through
its classifieds portal, previously
called Jumia Deals.
For Cameroon, group offi-
cials said its transactional
portal was not suitable to the
current environment in the
country which forced group
executives to effect a difficult
decision to suspend its e-com-
merce operations effective on
Nov.18.
After these developments, it
remains unclear whether more
operations will be closed in
other markets.
However, Abdesslam Ben-
zitouni, the group head of
communication told Quartz
Africa – a news entity – that
Jumia has no closure plans
in the short-term in the other
countries where they continue
operating.
It is currently in Nigeria,
Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Côte
D’Ivoire, South Africa, Tunisia,
Algeria, Ghana, Senegal and
Uganda.
Uganda’s subsidiary on solid
ground
Meanwhile, Ron Kawamala
told The Independent on Nov.8
that their business model in
Uganda is built on a solid
ground that delivers on qual-
ity, speed and good customer
care.
He said Uganda’s online
market remains small when
compared with developed
markets like the United King-
dom and America but was
optimistic that the country’s
young population hold the
future for online transactions
given that they are active inter-
net users.
He also said that innovations
is one component driving their
business.
The company has since 2014
been running promotional
Black Friday – a window that
sees vendors sell their goods
at discounted prices to online
shoppers.
The company said in a state-
ment shared on Dec.09 that the
just concluded Black Friday
attracted large volumes of
shoppers, surpassing the 2018
numbers by over 50%.
ICT players say Jumia
Uganda business is well run
internally but say, external
factors relating to the economy
and government tax policies
and incentives will determine
its future operations.
“I believe the internal struc-
ture is solid,” Albert Mucun-
guzi, the chairperson of the
ICT Association of Uganda
told The Independent on
Dec.09. He added:
“… The shutdown in
Tanzania and Cameroon are
based on merit and I applaud
them for taking that strong
decision…if something is not
working, there is no need to
keep pushing it.”
However, he said, different
players have to encourage
people to get online other than
stopping them to get online.
“There is need for internet
access incentives, incentives for
computers and smartphones,”
he said.
He said the unfair taxation
regimes such as the one on
the Over- the-Top and related
regulations should be made
fair to aid people to join the
internet eco-system that sup-
port growth of businesses like
that of Jumia instead of having
them move physically to mar-
kets to do shopping.
He said, internet usage has
not grown beyond 15% in the
last 12 months in Uganda part-
ly because of OTT regime and
related high costs.
Mucunguzi said that Jumia
is the most popular online site
in Uganda and is employing
many people including those
who are selling goods online
and contributing to adoption of
digital and financial inclusion.
“It is in everyone’s interest
that it should not leave,” he
said. He said Jumia officials
should deliver on quality
similar to what other popular
world players like Amazon do
if they are to remain a darling
for online shoppers.
 Executive Style
Liquid Telecom sees potential in
bundled technology services
It is nearly nine months
since you become CEO for
Liquid Telecom Uganda.  is a leading
What is your assessment
of data usage compared
with other countries in the
region?
The fixed Internet service
market has been growing
year on year over the last
five years, making this
market close to200, 000
subscribers. There is a good
growth, and there’s room
for more. On the other hand,
the mobile internet usage
is seeing a reverse trend for
reasons I would not like to
delve in now. Compared to
other countries in the region,
Uganda’s internet penetra-
tion pales in comparison to
Kenya. We have more room
for growth, not our neigh-
bours.
 What is Liquid Telecom’s tar-
get customers?
Liquid Telecom serves carrier,
enterprise and retail customers
with high-speed, reliable con-
nectivity and digital services.
We have built Africa’s largest
independent fibre network,
approaching 70,000km, and
cover four Wholesale Data,
Enterprise, Retail and Wholesale
Voice.
I also understand that you
offer cloud services. How is
your assessment of the market
uptake so far? What is your
pricing like?
Cloud services rely heavily on
connectivity and that is why we
have combined our expansive
reach, innovative digital services
and premium partners to drive
the African Cloud revolution.
Together we work towards the
advancement of cloud services
to help drive our customers’
digital transformation. Liquid
Telecom brings local billing,
on-the-ground support, man-
aged services and assistance.
Moving to the cloud is a journey,
we bring adaptive solutions that
simplify this digital transition.
In November 2019, we extended
our collaboration with Microsoft
as a launch partner in Africa for
the new Azure Peering Service.
This modern enterprise cloud
networking service uses Liquid
Telecom’s unrivalled fibre net-
work, strategically located data
centres and cloud architecture to
provide organisations with opti-
mised, reliable Internet connec-
tivity to Microsoft services, such
as Microsoft Office 365.
Over the past years, provid-
ers of internet services have
increased but the cost has
remained high. What is the rea-
sons behind this trend?
On the contrary, the cost of
Internet has fallen significantly
over the last 10 years, partly
informed by the entry of many
Internet Service Providers into
the market, but mostly influ-
enced by the entry into the mar-
ket by Undersea Cable provid-
ers. The price will continue to go
down, customers will demand
value more than connectivity,
and this is the place for Liquid
to play.
Liquid Telecom
Pan-African
communications
solutions
provider with
presence in over
13 countries.
Liquid Telecom’s
CEO in Uganda,
Dennis Kahindi,
spoke to The
Independent’s
Isaac Khisa
about how the
company is
helping to build
Africa’s digital
future.
Liquid Telecom has now con-
nected Cape to Cairo, East and
West of the African continent.
What does this mean to the
company and the customers?
Bringing major continents
closer together via the most
direct fibre link connecting East
to West Africa via DRC is history
in the making. In 2018 Liquid
Telecom launched a direct land-
based fibre link between Cape
Town and Cairo and in July
this year, we started work on
connecting South Sudan to the
rest of the continent. By con-
necting East to West Africa via
DRC with a direct land-based
fibre link, more African cities,
more communities and more
businesses will have access to
reliable and faster internet con-
nections than ever, and many
for the first time. This will bring
proven economic and social
benefits throughout the coun-
try, including vastly improved
healthcare, education, social wel-
fare and trade as we continue to
expand Liquid Telecom’s ‘One
Africa’ Broadband Network.
What plans does Liquid Tele-
com have in as far as encourag-
Dec. 13 - 19 2019
ing the adoption of ICT
for businesses as well as
government?
In 2017 Liquid Telecom
launched its Innovation
Partnerships aimed at sup-
porting the growth of dig-
ital technology innovation
across Africa. By bringing
together key players from
within the region’s inno-
vation ecosystem, Liquid
Telecom is helping technol-
ogy companies originated
and founded in Africa to
scale through mutually
beneficial partnerships.
To drive the uptake and
adoption of ICT, we are
working with Incubation
and Acceleration programs
such as the Innovation Vil-
lage in empowering youth
to create ICT businesses
and exploring how technology
can impact our society in a pos-
itive way.
Where do we see Liquid Tele-
com in the next 10 years?
Access to high-speed broad-
band is providing the founda-
tions for digital growth and
innovation across the continent.
Start-ups and businesses in
Africa are experimenting with
emerging technologies, such as
Artificial Intelligence (AI), Inter-
net of Things (IoT), Big Data
Analytics and Blockchain, that
have the potential to solve Afri-
can problems and improve lives.
We are improving cloud capabil-
ities across the region – provid-
ing both the infrastructure and
tools to accelerate digital innova-
tion. Approximately 20% of Afri-
ca’s population is aged between
15 and 24, making the region as
the youngest in the world. We
recognise that the development
of digital skills will be critical to
both their future and a success-
ful digital economy. Over the
next 10 years, Liquid Telecom
will be that much close to build-
ing Africa’s digital future.
27
business
CSR TOURISM

Airtel Uganda renews Buganda Sponsorship Government unveils

Dec.05. graced by Buganda Tulambule X-mas promotion

Kingdom officials led by
the Katikkiro, Charles Peter
Mayiga and Airtel Uganda
officials led by Mr. V.G.
Somasekhar, the Company’s
Managing Director.
During the event,
Somasekhar thanked the
Buganda Kingdom for
once again giving Airtel an
opportunity to take part in
their activities for another
Airtel Uganda MD, V.G Somasekhar (3rd R), Buganda Kingdom
Katikiro, Charles Peter Mayiga (2R) and executives from both three years.
entities during the review of the ongoing partnership and The Katikkiro of Bugan-
sponsorship of various activities. da, Charles Peter Mayiga
S
tate Minister for Tourism, Wildlife
and Antiquities, Godfrey Kiwanda
has unveiled the Tulambule Christ-
mas promotion 2019.
Tulambule will this year traverse south
western Uganda in areas of Kigezi includ-
ing; Lake Bunyonyi, Lake Mutanda and
Mgahinga National Park.  Speaking at
Ndere Culture Center in Kampala, Kiwanda
said Uganda is ready for the festive season
and that Ugandans sharing their experienc-
es online will open the country to the world.
He said the tourism ministry has entered
into agreements with top hotels and other
institutions to reward Ugandans during the

A
irtel Uganda
has reiterated its
commitment to
Buganda Kingdom
initiatives by renewing their
ongoing partnership and
sponsorship of the Kabaka
Birthday Run, The Birthday
Dinner/ Mass Celebrations,
Coronation Celebrations,
Eid and Masaza Cup for 3
years, 2020-2022.
The announcement was
made at a press conference
held at the Buganda King-
dom offices in Mengo on
appreciated Airtel Uganda
for their commitment to the
people of Uganda by con-
tinuing to sponsor activities
such as the Kabaka Run that
have shade light onto com-
munity health concerns such
as fistula, Sickle Cell Disease
and now AIDS.
campaign which will run until January 2020.
Additionally, the campaign encourages
travelers to widely post about their
experiences on Facebook, Twitter, and
Instagram in a way that inspires others to
make the same trips and stand chances to
win prizes. The digital campaign will be
run through the Uganda Tourism Board
social media channels.

BANKING
CSR
GCR upgrades Afreximbank dfcu Bank official sponsors of Kabaka Birthday Run

G
lobal Credit Rating (GCR) has announced
an upgrade of the African Export-Import fcu Bank in

d
Bank’s (Afreximbank) long-term interna- partnership
tional scale rating from BBB+ to A-. GCR also with the Bugan-
affirmed the Bank’s short-term rating at A2 and the da Kingdom has
outlook as stable. announced a three-
In the announcement released in Johannesburg, year partnership that
South Africa, on Dec.05, the rating agency said that, sees the bank become
in granting the upgrade, it acknowledged Afrexim- the official bank spon-
bank’s tenacity and resilience in managing risks in sor for the Annual Ka-
its operating environment, which was generally per- baka Birthday Run.
ceived to be high risk. “The ratings on Afreximbank The sponsorship
balances its significant exposure to high risk operating unveiling happened at
environments, fairly strong and diverse membership the Buganda Kingdom
base, demonstrated preferential creditor treatment, offices in Bulange, dfcu’s CEO Mathias Katamba (R) exchanges the signed
strong status within the region and good track record Mengo on Dec.04 partnership contract with his Majestic Brands counterpart,
of fulfilling mandate, beyond adequate current levels where dfcu Bank was Ronald Kawaddwa as Buganda Kingdom Katikiro, Charles
of capitalisation, strong risk position, stable funding represented by its Peter Mayiga (C) looks on. 
and good liquidity position,” GCR said. According CEO, Mathias Kat-
to agency, the new rating also captures the Bank’s amba who signed an and ultimately protect new infections, there is
key strength in structured trade finance which agreement and handed women against infec- a need for more collab-
demonstrates its ability to de-risk its lending portfolio over a Shs 562.7million tion. This partnership orative effort to drive
through high quality collateral comprising cash, insur- cheque. is in line with dfcu’s awareness and test-
ance from highly-rated insurers, sovereign backed For the next three Corporate Social ing,” Katamba said.
securities, assignment of receivables (which transfers years, the Kabaka’s Investment interven- The Katikkiro of
repayment risk to OECD countries), amongst others. Birthday Run will be tion area of maternal & Buganda, Charles
“This upgrade confirms stakeholders’ deep con- championed under the child health in the con- Peter Mayiga applaud-
fidence in Afreximbank’s compelling credit story, cause; ‘Men against text of HIV/AIDS. ed dfcu Bank for its
which is punctuated by hard work and an innovation AIDS to save the girl “Despite the signif- continued support and
culture,” said Afreximbank President Prof. Benedict child’, which is aimed icant progress in the commended it’s com-
Oramah, in reaction to the announcement. “Afrex- to drive awareness last decade resulting mitment to joining the
imbank is committed to continuing to develop and
about HIV/AIDS and in a 58% decrease in Kingdom in the fight
implement innovative risk management approaches
encouraging men to AIDS-related deaths against HIV/AIDS.
in the management of its lending book and capital.”
get tested, get treated and 57% decrease in

28 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
 business

Uganda Airlines to fly to Zanzibar

By The Independent the launch of Mombasa a

U
month ago.
ganda Airlines has Zanzibar has in recent
added yet another years established herself
key destination as a premier 5-star
in East Africa – destination with a number
Zanzibar starting Dec.16. of internationally branded
The airline already flies resorts operating across the
from Entebbe to Nairobi, so called ‘Spice Island‘ but
Mombasa, Juba, Bujumbura, also offers affordable smaller
Dar es Salaam, Kilimanjaro hotels suitable for family
and Mogadishu with vacations on a budget.
Zanzibar becoming the Guided tours through
carrier’s 9th destination. ‘Stone Town‘ and visits to
The new development spice farms and the slave
Uganda Breweries Managing Director Alvin Mbugua (Right) and Edith Kagoya, tightens competition for the caves are just some of the
Head of Programs at Sight Savers Uganda exchange documents after signing a destination that is already activities which visitors can
memorandum of Understanding to promote equal employment opportunities for
differently abled people in the company and the labour market system. Looking served with other regional enjoy while on the island.
on is Ambrose Murangira, Disability inclusion adviser from Light your world, airlines such as Kenya The airline also plans
Netherlands.  INDEPENDENT ALFRED OCHWO Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, to fly to the Democratic
RwandAir and Tanzanian Republic of Congo, South
airlines through their hubs. Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia,
The flight UR320/1 Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan.
combines with Dar es By the end of 2020 or in
Salaam, which is served early 2021 will the airline
daily already out of Entebbe take delivery of two ordered
and three weekly flights, Airbus A330-800Neo aircraft
on Monday, Wednesday to then enter the long haul
and Friday, will as of market with flights to
the December.16 th route India, China and the United
on to Zanzibar before Kingdom.
then returning to Entebbe Uganda Airlines was
nonstop. reived in August this year to
The new service further tap into the growing number
opens up the Swahili coast of tourist arrivals and the
for leisure, but also business business community in the
travellers from Uganda, after East African nation.
The Director of Traffic and Road safety, Dr. Stephen Kasiima (L), Vivo Energy
Gilbert Assi (3rd L) and State Minister for Works in the Ministry of Works
& Transport, General Katumba Wamala flag off the 2019 Tweddeko Caravan
in Kampala on Dec.05. This initiative, which is part of Vivo Energy Uganda’s
on-going Tweddeko campaign, will relay practical road safety messages and
training to the communities located in accident prone areas along Kampala-
Luwero-Gulu Highway.   Share price movement (Nov. 25)
Security Nov. 25 Sep.03 Movement
BATU 30,000 300 00
BOBU 125 130 3.8
CENT 1,075 1,037 3.6
QCL 127 130 2.3
DFCU 650 650 00
EABL 7,352 6,985 5.2
EBL 1,752 1,422 23.2
JHL 12,922 13,177 1.9
KA 104 89 16
KCB 1,790 1,430 25
NIC 11 12 8.3
NMG 1,450 1,356 6.9
NVL 321 325 1.2
SBU 24 24 00
Mbabali Natasha (2nd R), MADS company fashion director announces UCHM 12 10 20
shs10 million to be worn by youth. MADS youth talent fashion and UCL 10 14 28
design will celebrate third years on Dec.14 at the Miracle Centre Cathedral.  UMEME 297 297 00
INDEPENDENT ALFRED OCHWO ALSI -- -- --

Dec. 13 - 19 2019 29

A
By agencies
study in Korea has once
again found that brushing
your teeth is linked to a
lower risk of atrial fibrillation
(a type of arrhythmia) and
heart failure. The study
was published in` European Journal of
Preventive Cardiology’.
Time and time again, researchers keep
finding a strange link between oral hygiene
and the health of a person’s heart.
It could simply be a coincidence, or it
could indicate that gum disease and tooth
loss are closely tied to our cardiovascular
system. Right now, we don’t have enough
evidence to say for sure - but there’s a new
study shedding some light on the issue.
While many studies have shown a
link between oral hygiene and heart
issues, research from 2017 analysing
data from nearly a million people found
no relationship between tooth loss and
cardiovascular disease.
Obviously, one study isn’t enough to
topple the entire idea, but further research
is required before we can say anything
for sure, especially given recent intriguing
results.
The large new study in Korea involved
161,286 people. It once again found that
brushing your teeth is linked to a lower risk
of atrial fibrillation (a type of arrhythmia)
and heart failure.
During a 10.5 year follow-up, adults
between the ages of 40 and 79 who brushed
their teeth three or more times a day had a
10 percent lower risk of atrial fibrillation and
a 12 percent lower risk of heart failure.
What’s more, these findings were
independent of age, sex, socioeconomic
status, regular exercise, alcohol
consumption, body mass index, and similar
health issues such as hypertension.
To be clear, the researchers did not
explore the exact mechanism underlying
tooth brushing and cardiovascular issues, if
30 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
Teeth brushing
keeps heart healthy?
Strange link shows up in yet another study
such a mechanism even exists. But already
there are several thoughts on what could be
the cause.
While it might sound crazy, what goes
on in your mouth can have a strong impact
on your overall health, and it’s something
we’re only just coming to realise. For
example, recent studies have indicated that
the cause of Alzheimer’s disease could be
linked to bacteria involved in gum disease.
When it comes to the plaque in our
arteries, the plaque on our teeth also seems
to matter. One theory is that bacteria living
in between the teeth and the gums can
enter the bloodstream and change the gut
microbiome. This can then trigger systemic
inflammation, which is known to facilitate
valve injury, myocardial damage, and even
heart failure.
But just as one study cannot topple
these ideas, neither can one prove them.
While the research from Korea follows a
large group over a long period of time,
these strengths are diminished by several
limitations.
Subjects were asked to report their own
brushing patterns; only individuals in
the Asian population were considered;
no actual electrocardiography or
echocardiographic findings were used; and
the presence of periodontal diseases was
never confirmed.
Plus, while the study was done over a
long period of time, it was retrospectively
analysed, which means identifying a causal
relationship was impossible.
Nevertheless, the conclusions match
results from last year, which found that
those who brushed their teeth less than
twice a day had a 3-fold increase in the risk
of having - or dying from - a heart attack.
At the time, cardiologist Ann Bolger
warned that such results do not prove
causation, and it’s entirely possible that
those who are attentive to their dental
health are also careful about health in
other parts of their body, including
making lifestyle choices that benefit their
cardiovascular fitness.
Even now, an editorial on this latest
study from two independent experts warns
that it’s still too early to draw any more
inferences.
“The causality of these associations
is unclear, and it is certainly too early
to recommend tooth brushing for the
prevention of [atrial fibrillation] and [heart
failure],” they write.
“While the role of inflammation in
the occurrence of cardiovascular disease
is becoming more and more evident,
intervention studies are needed to define
strategies of public health importance.”
As of now, there’s no proof that treating
gum disease will prevent cardiovascular
disease, but given these compelling
results, experts say the potential link is just
another reason to be vigilant about your
oral health.
 HEALTH

Fat is good for older people

As we get older, too few pounds can be just as harmful
By Agencies illness or falls, or sustain an individual training in your exercise regimen to help

A
ccording to the National Center for
Health Statistics, about 43 percent
of women and 38 percent of men 60
and older are obese.
However, some evidence suggests that in
older people, defining overweight and obe-
sity is tricky, and a few extra pounds may be
healthy.
“It’s kind of a controversial area in terms
of where the cutoff points for overweight
and obesity should be in older adults,” says
Denise Houston, Ph.D., R.D., associate pro-
fessor of internal medicine at the Wake For-
est School of Medicine. Here’s the lowdown
on weight as we age.
during hospitalisations. Being too lean may
decrease your physiologic reserve, Eastman
says. “If something happens, like you get
pneumonia or fracture a hip, you don’t have
as much energy stores to draw on, so you
get depleted and can’t recover,” she says.
Who needs to gain?
While researchers continue to study the
effects of a few extra pounds on older adults,
it’s clear that being very thin—a BMI below
18.5—is risky, and those people should try to
build muscle.
Who needs to lose?
Whether excess weight is harming your
health depends on a few things. First,
although BMI is not always the best mea-
sure, it can guide you to have a discussion
with your doctor.
Next, where you carry your weight is
important. Visceral fat—the kind around
your midsection—is the most dangerous
because it surrounds and sometimes accu-

Weighty issues
There’s no doubt that being too heavy is
harmful to health. “In the older population,
carrying too much extra weight makes
many chronic conditions worse, including
heart and liver disease, osteo­arthritis, and
sleep apnea,” says Alexis Eastman, M.D.,
medical director for the division of geriatrics
at the University of Wisconsin School of
Medicine and Public Health.
And the higher your weight, the greater
the risk of concerns such as type 2 diabetes
and high blood pressure.
But the way overweight is typically mea-
sured—BMI, or body mass index—may not
be the best indicator of health risks in older
people.
A BMI of 25 to 29.9 is considered over-
weight, while a BMI of 30 or higher is obese.
However, BMI can be misleading.
“BMI is correlated with how much fat
a person has, but it’s an imperfect mea-
sure,” Houston says. For example, it doesn’t put on weight. mulates inside the arteries and organs, such
account for related factors, such as muscle Appetite loss is common with age, but as the liver, heart, and pancreas.
mass, where fat is located, gender, ethnici- there are a few ways to combat that. Eat “There are studies showing waist cir-
ty—or age. smaller meals more often and choose high- cumference may predict chronic conditions
Houston says that an older adult perhaps er-calorie, nutritionally dense foods, such as better than BMI,” Houston says. For men it
shouldn’t be considered overweight unless avocado, nut butters, or whole milk yogurt. should be 40 inches or less and for women
BMI is 27 or 28. In fact, a 2014 analysis of 32 You can also drizzle healthy oils, such as 35 inches or less; measure just above the hip
studies in the American Journal of Clinical olive oil, on vegetables, meats, fish, or bread. bones.
Nutrition found that the lowest mortality In addition, make sure you’re getting Last, if you’re short of breath or have pain
risk for people ages 65 and older was seen in enough protein—it will help you maintain or discomfort when you’re moving around
those with a BMI of 27 to 27.9. muscle mass. By some estimates, close to or doing normal daily activities, your weight
Other studies have had similar findings. A one-third of older adults living independent- may be an issue. Talk to your doctor, who
2017 research review published in the jour- ly have sarcopenia—age-related muscle loss. will review your health and family history
nal `Medicine’ found that obese older adults Muscles help give your body structural to determine whether you should drop
had a 6 percent decreased risk of dying integrity, protect joints, and maintain bal- pounds.
early from any cause. And a 2015 study of ance. Having too little muscle can lead to
more than 19,000 nursing home patients, abnormal movement patterns and poor Healthy weight-loss rules to follow
published in `Obesity Reviews’, also linked posture, which can cause aches and pains If you’re too heavy, losing as little as 5 to
overweight and obesity to a longer life. and increase fall risk. Even as you try to gain 10 percent of your weight can have a healthy
Extra weight may help protect against weight, stay active and include resistance impact on blood pressure, blood sugar, and

Dec. 13 - 19 2019 31
HEALTH
cholesterol levels, Houston says. Before you
try a fad diet, though, keep these essentials
in mind:
Opt for real food. For most people, diet is
the key to weight loss. Eating whole foods
vs. processed and avoiding empty calories
(such as crackers or sugary beverages or
snacks) will help ensure that you’re getting
plenty of vitamins, minerals, fiber, and other
nutrients.
Consider adding more protein. It may
help keep you fuller longer. Current guide-
lines recommend 0.36 gram of protein per
pound of weight, but older adults may need
0.6 gram per pound to prevent sarcopenia
and 0.7 gram for weight loss. (That’s 96 to
112 grams daily for a 160-pound person. A
4-ounce chicken breast has 32 grams.)
Eastman recommends working with a
doctor or dietitian to find your right protein
intake. Have protein—lean meats, poultry,
fish, yogurt, tofu, nuts, or beans—at every
meal; spreading it out makes it easier for the
body to build muscle.
Get some exercise. “You have to preserve
your muscle mass,” Eastman says. “Every
older person should engage in some sort of
strength and endurance exercise.”
Unexplained weight loss
If you’ve lost more than 5 percent of your
weight over the last six months to a year—
without trying to—always check with your
doctor to rule out underlying conditions.
Cancer, diabetes, dementia, and thyroid
issues can all lead to unintended weight loss.
If there’s no obvious cause, your doctor will
explore other factors.
“The body is programmed to seek out
food, so if someone’s losing weight, there
must be something else happening,” says
Cary Kreutzer, M.P.H., R.D.N., with the USC
Leonard Davis School of Gerontology.
“In that case, we look at a few things: Are
they not eating properly because they lost
their sense of smell or taste? Do they have
the ability to shop and cook, and have com-
pany at mealtime? Maybe they’re depressed
or it’s a side effect of medications, or maybe
alcoholism is involved.”
Depending on the cause, consider work-
ing with a dietitian, who can help you plan
meals that have adequate calories and nutri-
ents.
“It may be more palatable to eat frequent
but smaller meals and snacks,” says Wake
Forest School of Medicine’s Denise Houston.
Just remember that food quality is still
important. Instead of loading up on junk
food to add calories, opt for whole foods.
Include fruits and vegetables—especially
berries and leafy greens, which in addition to
being rich in vitamins are also high in com-
pounds that may help fight inflammation
and preserve brain health.
Source: Consumer Reports On Health.
32 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
Augmented bed nets cut
malaria cases by 25 %
But the contribution of
conventional bed nets to malaria
control should not be ignored
By Esther Nakkazi
I
nsecticide-treated bed nets combined
with a new chemical could cut malaria
cases by about 25 per cent, a study in
Uganda shows. Researchers say that
despite widespread use of long-lasting in-
secticidal nets in Sub-Saharan Africa, their
impact on malaria control is lower than ex-
pected because mosquitoes are increasingly
becoming resistant to insecticides called py-
rethroids used to treat the bed nets.
The WHO has endorsed the new chemical
called piperonyl butoxide (PBO) in the inter-
im to augment
existing treated
bed nets in
areas where
resistance is
common, the
researchers
add. In a large-
scale trial in
Uganda that
was launched
in February
2017 and is ex-
pected to end
in April 2020,
the researchers
are comparing the effectiveness of bed nets
with the standard chemical and those with
the new chemical in reducing malaria cases.
“PBO long-lasting insecticidal nets were
more effective than conventional nets in
Uganda, where resistance to pyrethroid
insecticides is high,” says Martin Donnelly
an expert in the genetics of insecticide resis-
tance at the UK-based Liverpool School of
Tropical Medicine and a co-leader of the trial
in Uganda.
Researchers presented the preliminary
findings of the study last month at the 68th
annual meeting of the American Society of
Tropical Medicine and Hygiene in the Unit-
ed States.
Researchers say that the new chemical
blocks the resistance of mosquitoes to the
insecticide in the bed net.
According to the researchers, households
supplied with the PBO-treated bed nets had
80 per cent fewer malaria-carrying female
mosquitoes compared to households using
conventional nets.
“Less female Anopheles mosquitoes mean
less infective bites to community members,
which in turn leads to reduced transmission
of malaria infection,” Donnelly explains.
According to Donnelly, the number of chil-
dren testing positive for malaria parasites in
a 12-month period after the nets were dis-
tributed was 25 per cent lower than for those
under nets treated with PBO.
 Researchers randomly selected about 23,000
children between two and ten years old in
5,200 households in Uganda, and divided
them into two groups, with one group sleep-
ing under bed
nets augment-
ed with the
new chemical
while the oth-
er group are
sleeping under
nets treated
solely with
pyrethroid
insecticides.
The find-
ings after 12
months show
that malaria
parasite re-
sistance was 10.7 per cent in the PBO arm
compared to 14.5 per cent in the group not
having the new chemical.
Medard Rukaari, the officer in charge of
universal bed net distribution at the Uganda
National Malaria Control Programme, tells
SciDev.Net that when “PBO-impregnated nets
were distributed massively in February 2017,
a drastic malaria reduction was achieved
within six months of its distribution”.
Rukaari adds that the government is
already distributing PBO-impregnated bed
nets as part of the Uganda’s malaria control
strategy. Donelly says that the contribution
of conventional bed nets to malaria control
should not be ignored.
“The results highlight that conventional [bed
nets] provide protection and may still have a
role in vector control programmes in settings
where insecticide resistance and malaria
transmission are low,” Donnelly explains.
 
Adapted from Scidev

By Valentine Namakula
Uganda’s War against Corruption
Accounting officers should be on the frontline
T
o say that corruption is wide spread
in our society is an understatement.
It touches everything and everyone
but the poor and marginalised have
the most to lose since wealthier citizens can
privately source the services that corruption
denies all of us. For the poor, those alterna-
tives are out of reach.
Over the last two decades, a lot of
innovation and experimentation has
happened in response to corruption but
even with these efforts, Uganda sits in
150th position out of 180, according to
Transparency International’s Corruption
Perception Index. The response can and
should be vastly improved.
For some reformers, this may require
uprooting the current regime. After all,
the regime had “fighting corruption” on
its 10-point programme and has so far
done too little from their perspective.
For others, it is a call to roll back reforms
including decentralisation and estab-
lished special purpose agencies.
For sure, reforms in responding to
corruption in today’s Uganda should be
more than an addition of legislation, an
institution or a lobby group, or support
to one part of government. It requires a
near-complete concerted overhaul. How-
ever, we should also be careful not to
throw the baby out with the bathwater.
There is immense value to harness from
the innovation and experimentation that
has happened over the past two decades.
These reforms teach us a lot about
crafting the response that corruption
requires.
What is needed and has worked before
is, institutional transformative change
spearheaded by the accounting officers of
public institutions.
A number of public institutions have
been transformed when their accounting
officers/heads have driven the fight
against corruption and maladministra-
tion, creating a service delivery culture
from within.
They shaped, constrained and influ-
enced people’s behaviour and choice of
actions. Uganda Revenue Authority tran-
sitioned from very high to low levels of
corruption under Commissioner General,
Allen Kagina.
Water and related services can now be
delivered more efficiently and the pro-
vider-consumer interaction has entirely
changed for the better under the respec-
tive leaderships of Silver Mugisha and
William Muhairwe.
Companies can be registered in one
day now at the Uganda Registration Ser-
vices Bureau, thanks to the leadership of
Bemanya Twebaze, who turned it from
maladministration into a service delivery
institution.
This is what the entire public service
needs to study, adapt and emulate. The
lesson is that being clear that no one size
fits all is important in this struggle.
If properly incentivised, supported and
called to account, institutional heads/
accounting officers, can do more than any
other system to reduce opportunities for
corruption, waste and mismanagement.
Presently, accounting officers wait for
the fraud to be detected and sanctioned
externally by the so called “accountability
institutions”: the Inspectorate of Govern-
ment, Auditor General’s Office and the
PPDA or some whistle-blower.
Others stress the need for speedy inves-
tigations into misconduct by public offi-
cials in their institutions. All these actions
constitute shirking one’s duties.
Thinking about a service value chain is
similarly essential –service delivery and
corruption perceptions alike respond
often not to a single institution’s contri-
bution, but to the overall levels across the
public sector.
If URA drastically reduced fraud
within its ranks, and Ministry of Lands
did not, a service beneficiary seeking for
registration of the land title may not feel
the effect.
Media, academia,
private sector
and NGOs
efforts should
contribute to a
more granular
understanding of
the magnitude of
corruption
comment
If the spirit of enterprise, bold inno-
vation and transformation is to survive
and spread leading to leaps in service
delivery, leaders of institutions like NSSF,
URA, UNRA, URSB, NWSC in which
a culture of service delivery has most
prospered, must champion it elsewhere
within the public sector.
Working with other service delivery
institutions to reveal and address their
fraud/waste and mismanagement vulner-
abilities will be a good start.
Robust partnerships focused on these
vulnerabilities could stimulate new forms
of fraud-elimination innovations and
service delivery enhancers that we can all
not imagine now.
At the same time, treating all accounting
officers as equals by the anti-corruption
efforts misses the fact that three quarters
of the national budget delivering 65% of
the services come from just a handful of
institutions.
Starting off with intense packages of
support and incentives to selected service
delivery agencies, would leave many
excluded, but might break the impasse of
no/low action, and might push enough
of the institutions onto a steeper service
delivery trajectory to benefit all – and that
can be widely replicated.
Just as accountability institutions have
to think differently about the role of
accounting officers in the response to
corruption, so too must service users, civil
society, media, political leaders, private
sector and academia.We all must support
the accounting officers to up their game
in accountability.
Media, academia, private sector and
NGOs efforts should contribute to a more
granular understanding of the magnitude
of corruption and accountability issues,
and bring their wisdom to bear on poten-
tial solutions.
Sanctions, the most widespread response
currently, should be left for what they can
definitely achieve- signal, obtain general
deterrence, and reinforce the measures
introduced by accounting officer.
Valentine Namakula is the Director of the
Strengthening Uganda’s Anti-Corruption
Response-Technical Advisory Facility
(SUGAR-TAF), a UK and EU-funded
programme
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 33
comment
By Patrick Gaspard
Why African cultural restitution matters
It is about more than confronting the legacy of
colonialism and its effect on global power dynamics
F
rench Prime Minister Édouard
Philippe recently presented an an-
tique saber to Senegalese President
Macky Sall at the presidential palace
in Dakar. But it was not a gift. The saber was
coming home, more than a century after it
had been stolen.
The repatriation of an item with deep
historical, spiritual, and cultural signif-
icance might seem like a mere gesture
of colonial redress. But this ceremony
was different, and it was about much
more than a single physical object. In
fact, it was a watershed moment in the
West’s recognition of the cultural damage
inflicted by colonialism.
The saber in question belonged to El
Hajj Omar Tall, founder of the Tou-
couleur Empire, which once extended
from present-day Senegal into Mali and
Guinea. Tall was a respected religious
leader and anti-colonial resistance fighter.
His weapon, along with tens of thousands
of other pieces of looted African heritage,
had been in French hands since the 1890s.
Exhibited in French museums, the saber
ceased to symbolise the military prowess
of a once-powerful dynasty, and instead
told the tale of an African empire’s dec-
imation, thereby legitimising the racism
and prejudice that underpinned the colo-
nial period.
Tall’s family had been campaigning for
the saber’s return since 1944, and they
finally won their fight last month. Descen-
dants traveled to Dakar from towns in
Guinea, Mali, and Senegal to witness its
homecoming. The saber will remain in
Senegal for five years while the French
parliament determines whether it – and
other objects – will be permanently resti-
tuted.
This moment would have been unimag-
inable just a few years ago. European
governments, ministries of culture,
museums, and universities have long
refused to recognise the immorality of
the circumstances in which Africa’s cul-
tural patrimony was removed from the
continent. The handover of the saber was
thus highly symbolic, auguring a shift in
power dynamics and a renewed respect
for Africa’s vibrant history. It also attests
to the persistence of Africans – young
and old, both on the continent and in the
diaspora – in mobilising to demand that
leaders of former colonial powers right
34 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
historical wrongs.
Colonialism rested on the disavowal
of African art, music, and architecture.
Brutal leaders such as Ian Smith, the
prime minister of Rhodesia (now Zim-
babwe) in the 1960s and 1970s, legiti-
mised horrific abuse and injustices by
undermining the culture of African
people, thereby erasing their humanity.
For decades, the Open Society Founda-
tions have supported those at the front
lines of societal transformation. We rec-
ognise the power of art and culture to
call into question structural inequalities,
challenge prejudice, and foster the imag-
ination of a new generation of leaders.
Our cultural heritage forms the bedrock
of the stories that we share to make sense
of our place in history – and in the world.
And at its core, the creation of cultural
artifacts is fundamentally a manifestation
of human hope.
Recognising this, the Open Society
Foundations are launching a new $15
million initiative to strengthen efforts to
ensure the restitution and re-appropria-
tion of artifacts looted from the African
continent. Over the next four years,
we will be supporting citizens, artists,
educators, indigenous communities,
civil-society organisations, museums, uni-
versities, and other institutions working
to return Africa’s heritage to its rightful
home, and to nurture in future genera-
tions of Africans a sense of ownership of
their history, culture, and identity.
Africa’s young people, in particular,
have been demanding control over their
own destinies, recently ushering in
sweeping change in Ethiopia and Sudan.
They recognise the importance of their
cultural heritage, and have been cam-
paigning for the return of African arti-
facts. Having realised that young people
are a critical force on a continent where
the population is expected to grow by
more than one billion, to 2.5 billion, by
2050, many former colonial powers have
begun to listen.
In a 2017 speech delivered to a full audi-
torium at a university in Burkina Faso,
French President Emmanuel Macron
pledged to make the return of African
artifacts a priority. “African cultural
heritage,” he argued, “can no longer be
held captive in European museums.”
And since then, the groundbreaking
Sarr-Savoy Report, commissioned by
the French government, has launched a
global conversation about the return of
items looted from Africa. The report’s
authors, French art historian Bénédicte
Savoy and Senegalese writer Felwine
Sarr, recommended the immediate,
unconditional return of any cultural
objects gained through theft, plunder,
pillage, despoiling, or unequal exchange
during colonial times.
Since the report was released in
November 2018, the global movement
for art restitution has strengthened con-
siderably. Official claims have been filed
for the restitution of historical artifacts
and human remains to Ethiopia, Senegal,
Benin, and Nigeria. But a lot of work
needs to be done to turn hopes of cultural
restitution into reality.
The number of artifacts missing from
Africa is staggering. The Royal Museum
for Central Africa in Belgium currently
holds 180,000 pieces of Sub-Saharan
African heritage. The British Museum in
London and the Musée du Quai Branly
in Paris each hold about 70,000 African
historical artifacts. This is in stark contrast
to the size of the holdings of museums in
Africa. Alain Godonou, a historian and
curator from Benin, estimates that the
inventories of most national museums in
Africa do not surpass 3,000 objects. The
Open Society Foundations, working with
our African partners and others around
the world, are working to change that.
Restitution is about more than con-
fronting the violent legacy of colonialism
– a legacy that continues to affect power
dynamics in Africa and around the world.
It is about supporting the work that young
Africans are doing to transform the dated,
racist narratives about their diverse cul-
tural heritage and rich history. It is about
giving current generations the means to
shape a better future for themselves. It is,
at its core, about restituting agency to a
continent defining its path forward.
Patrick Gaspard, former United States
Ambassador to South Africa, is President of
the Open Society Foundations.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.

By Larry Hatheway
Restoring central banks’ credibility
When the playbook of slashing interest rates
to spur the economy no longer works as well
R
ecent jumps in equity prices and
bond yields suggest that recession
fears are receding. But the global
economic expansion cannot last
forever, and when the next recession comes,
central banks may not be adequately pre-
pared to respond. Enhancing central-bank
credibility to bolster the effectiveness of
monetary policy is thus an urgent priority.
Before the 2008 financial crisis, central
bankers could rely on slashing interest
rates to spur consumption, investment, and
employment. But that playbook no longer
works as well as it once did. One reason
is elevated uncertainty, owing to globali-
sation, societal aging, changing consumer
preferences, growing income and wealth
inequality, rising health-care costs, rapid
technological change, and other factors.
Even in the absence of recession, for many
households and businesses, the future seems
daunting and unpredictable.
This uncertainty will exacerbate the down-
turn when it comes. When uncertainty
spikes, low or even negative real (infla-
tion-adjusted) interest rates may not induce
higher spending. Rather, savings may rise
and investment may falter even as interest
rates plunge. If governments are unwilling
or unable to boost demand with fiscal policy,
the result will be a prolonged and deep eco-
nomic slump.
Few would doubt that monetary policy
should be eased in such circumstances. In
theory, central banks have extraordinary
means to respond, through negative interest
rates, asset purchases, “forward guidance,”
and the like. Yet, in practice, central banks
face tight constraints, which means that their
response to the next recession may prove
insufficient.
Broadly, these constraints fall into two
categories: laws or established policies that
define what monetary policy can do; and
political and institutional limits that hem in
central banks’ decision-making. The legal
limitations vary according to the political
and institutional environment and history of
a central bank’s jurisdiction. In conducting
open market operations, for example, the
U.S. Federal Reserve may purchase only
debt securities issued or guaranteed by the
U.S. federal government. In contrast, the
Bank of Japan may purchase private-sector
securities such as equities or corporate
bonds, giving it potentially greater latitude
to expand its balance sheet and stimulate
corporate finance.
Such differences could matter in the event
of a severe slump that requires extraordinary
measures. To take an extreme example, the
Fed cannot unilaterally create “helicopter
money” – a metaphor invoked by Milton
Friedman to describe how a central bank
might distribute cash directly to individuals
in order to stimulate consumption. To create
cash (a central-bank liability), the Fed must
purchase an asset. Yet because private-sector
IOUs are not eligible assets, the Fed cannot
distribute cash directly to the bank accounts
of ordinary Americans (nor could it drop $20
bills from the sky, even if it had the helicop-
ters).
So, in the U.S. case, helicopter money
would actually have to be a fiscal transfer
from the federal government to its citizens,
underwritten by Fed purchases of Treasury
securities. As such, it is a policy that only
Congress and the president can enact. The
problem is that legislating such measures
would take considerable time, whereas the
next economic or financial crisis will prob-
ably require swift and decisive action.
To be sure, helicopter money is typically
viewed as a last resort. But even less het-
erodox policies may be hamstrung by policy
norms. For example, the Fed has been reluc-
tant to endorse the option of breaching the
“zero lower bound” (ZLB) and introducing
negative policy rates. Yet if the equilibrium
real interest rate falls below zero, as seems
likely in the next recession, that self-imposed
ZLB limitation could pose problems.
In fact, the Fed’s own staff has estimated
that the ZLB floor could prevent it from
delivering an appropriately low real interest
rate as often as 40% of the time, given plau-
sible estimates of the neutral real policy rate
and the odds of below-trend growth. Such
failures could threaten the next recovery,
and even the Fed’s independence.
Central bankers also face political and
institutional constraints. In Europe, financial
institutions (particularly the Bundesbank),
pensioners, and savers dislike negative
interest rates. Whether these constituencies’
opposition to monetary-policy easing has
prevented the European Central Bank from
acting as forcefully as it might otherwise
have done is an open question. But, clearly,
an air of timidity has damaged the ECB’s
credibility.
The ECB staunchly opposes high infla-
tion, but has been tolerant of below-target
inflation. In 2012, then-ECB President Mario
Draghi famously committed to do “what-
comment
ever it takes” to save the euro. Yet he never
mustered the same resolve to ensure that
inflation would reach the bank’s mandated
target.
Economists agree that credibility reinforces
monetary-policy effectiveness. If consumers,
workers, and businesses don’t believe that
a central bank is committed to achieving
its mandate, they will adjust their behavior
accordingly. Low inflation expectations will
lead to low inflation outcomes.
Those outcomes are not costless. When
inflation is too low, it is harder to push down
real interest rates, particularly if citizens
oppose negative nominal rates. In such cir-
cumstances, a central bank that is unwilling
to commit to its inflation target partly sur-
renders its most important policy tool: the
ability to cut real interest rates in the event of
a downturn.
Forfeiting policy tools is especially prob-
lematic now that the traditional transmission
channels for monetary policy are proving
less effective. Easing policy is less likely
to depreciate the currency and boost net
exports if other central banks are doing the
same. And while loose monetary policies
may boost asset prices, consumption won’t
increase much if the benefits are accruing
only to the wealthy.
Whenever the next downturn comes, it
will be too late to remedy central banks’
shortcomings. But by making changes before
they are necessary, central banks can restore
their credibility. For example, the ECB could
immediately announce a “whatever it takes”
commitment to a symmetric inflation target,
and then back it up with a round of easing.
Doing this when confidence in growth is
returning would send a powerful signal that
the policy change is structural and not just
another belated cyclical Band-Aid.
Central bankers should also revisit legal
and self-imposed policy constraints, with
an eye toward amending or removing those
that could hinder policy flexibility in “tail
risk” scenarios. Demonstrating a willingness
to act before the crisis arrives is a costless
way for central banks to safeguard their
most important asset: the belief that they
know what they’re doing.
Larry Hatheway is Group Head of Investment
Solutions and Group Chief Economist at GAM.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 35
comment
By Yoga Adhola
What is ideology?
Why Museveni’s efforts to artificially imbue the NRM with
some sort of ideology in Kyankwanzi has so far failed
W
hen Mugisha Muntu left FDC,
he argued that he had had
differences with his colleagues
over ideology. Journalist
Ivan Okuda disagreed. He wrote on his
Facebook wall: “I am perplexed at why
journalists and commentator in Uganda
confidently say the FDC fall out was on
ideological differences. In fact even General
Muntu, a university graduate, says the two
ideologies couldn’t be reconciled. Mzee
Yoga Adhola must be gnashing his teeth
each time he hears this.
Defiance can’t be an ideology. Building
party structures can’t be an ideology. Tac-
tics, methods? Yes. Ideology? That’s an
insult.
We could even ask if FDC was actually
ever founded and run on ideology and
what that ideology was. The same question
is relevant for NRM. I am not sure those
who fell out with General Museveni ever
did so on ideological grounds.
Sometimes it is a difference of opinion,
the prevailing sentiment over actions
like amending the constitution, failure to
resolve personal difference, egos becoming
too fat or just posturing. Ideology has a
long time to come in our peasant politics.
We aren’t there yet.”
Yet Mugisha Muntu is not the only one
who has problems understanding the con-
cept, ideology. President Museveni prob-
ably has even a more serious problem. He
makes erroneous statements about ideology
in his book, “The Mustard Seed 1”.
On page 47, he wrote: “The whole of
the 1960s decade in Uganda’s political
life was a period of intrigue, culminating
in Obote virtually abandoning power to
Amin. These intrigues among politicians
had so weakened mass movements such as
DP and UPC that Amin just picked up the
mantle of power from a political leadership
emasculated by its own ideological narrow-
ness….” The phrase “ideological narrow-
ness” is absolutely meaningless.
He also wrote on page 120: “Yet again, the
unprincipled alliance between UPC and
KY proved tragic for our country and was
a testimony to UPC’s treachery, political
incompetence and ideological bankruptcy.”
I do not need to point out that there is abso-
lutely no meaning in the adjective ‘ideolog-
ical’ here.
He further wrote on page 175: “The ideo-
36 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
logical realisation of where your funda-
mental interests lie is crucial if the mission
is to succeed.” The use of the word “ideo-
logical” is totally meaningless. The concept
needs a serious look into. Since Ivan Okuda
mentioned my name, I feel obligated to
jump in and define this concept.
I need to point out at the outset that ide-
ology, the concept, evolved. It first made
appearance in the later part of the 18th
century in France. The very word ideology
was the brainchild of a French nobleman;
Antoine Louis Claude Comte Destutt de
Tracy. He was part of a group of French
intellectuals who called themselves ideo-
logues.
The group became very critical of Napo-
leon’s imperial policies. To this opposition,
Napoleon reacted with very intense hos-
tility. He called them names and labelled
them dreamers or people living in illusions.
Thereafter, for over 50 years there was no
development on the concept.
A watershed in the development of the
concept was reached when Marx and
Engels came on the intellectual scene. The
two argued in their book, `The German Ide-
ology’ thus: “Men are the producers of their
conceptions, ideas, etc. - real active men, as
they are conditioned by a definite develop-
ment of their productive forces and of the
intercourse corresponding to these, up to its
furthest forms. Consciousness can never be
anything else than conscious existence, and
the existence of men is their actual life pro-
cess. If in ideology men and their circum-
stances appear up-side down as in a camera
obscura, this phenomenon arises just as
much from their historical life process as
the inversion of objects on the retina does
from their physical life process.”
This complicated argument can be simply
translated that it is our common experience
which gets reflected in our minds as ide-
ology.
Our own Mahmood Mamdani has put
it thus: “Common conditions (experience)
beget a common consciousness and when
these are conditions of oppression and
exploitation, they beget a consciousness of
struggle.”
Marx and Engels also went on to argue:
“The ideas of the ruling class are in every
epoch the ruling ideas, i.e. the class which is
the ruling material force of society, is at the
same time its ruling intellectual force.”
From this statement they go on to con-
clude that ideology was a false conscious-
ness. They arrived at this because the
working class was getting imbued with
the ideology of the bourgeoisie and inter-
preting the world from a bourgeois per-
spective. And this was giving them a false
picture of life.
This was to change when Marx and
Engels got more mature. The `German Ide-
ology’ was written when Marx and Engels
were still developing ideologically. The
mature Marx and Engels were to revise this
and embrace the view that the dominated
classes also have ideologies.
In their maturity, Marx and Engels came
to the view that every social class has an
ideology. Further, that the ideology is a
reflection of the collective experience of the
members as a social class. Also, that while
the ideology of the bourgeoisie can be false,
that of the proletariat is not.
In later time, ideology theorists came to
realise that collectives like social identities
too can evolve ideologies.
In modern times ideology has come to
mean “...(1)the basic conceptualisation, that
is, the conceptual prism through which one
views and analyses the world; the image of
the future society to which one aspires; and
(3) the objectives set for achieving such a
society.”
Contrary to this, Museveni views ide-
ology as some sort of left-wing silver bullet
or magic wand which can solve all prob-
lems. All you need to do is imbue people
with it.
Yet nothing could be further from the
truth. Ideology arises from the historical
experiences a collective goes through. It is
that experience which gets reflected in the
mind as an ideology.
It is, therefore, not possible to artificially
imbue a collective with an ideology. The
most one can do is lead a people to find an
ideology within themselves i.e. from their
experiences. Having done that, you can
then help them refine or develop it.
It is for this reason that I argue that the
NRM has no ideology and cannot evolve
one as some NRMs think. There is no
common historical experience which brings
NRMs together.
Yoga Adhola is a leading ideologue of UPC.
 ART | BOOKS | SOCIETY | TRAVEL | CULTURE

A
By Dominic Muwanguzi

rt is increasingly being
adopted as a medium
for institutions to
advocate social change in
communities. Art is seen
to have potential to shape
or influence everyday perceptions by
mirroring the social condition and behavior
of communities.
An art exhibition that fits this mold is
ongoing at the Car Gallery of the Uganda
Museum in Kampala. Dubbed `Art creates
Water 2019’ the multi-disciplinary exhibit
showcases works by several artists in one
space. Experienced artists and pupil- artists
are together in a setting that suits their
varied works in production techniques,
medium or material used, nature of theme
and concept navigated, and dimension and
type of art (realistic, conceptual or abstract).
Pupils from the French School and
Ambrossoli International School, for
example, are exhibiting works that
are unique in medium and nature of
expression. In general, the pupils’ artworks

Art
are direct and accurate responses to the
theme. On the other hand, experienced between the two groups. The established
artists like Ronex, Ibrahim Muwanga and artists have few artworks directly reacting
Kintu Paul approach the theme with more to the theme of the exhibition, whereas the
studio deftness, abstraction, and symbolism. learners have art that resonates with the

creates
Combined, the different approaches appeal theme to the letter.
to the diverse audience. “It is rare that the established artist will
This combined exhibition is an annual react to the theme of the exhibition unless
event that is in its third year. This they’re commissioned. This is unlike the

year, the focus is on provision of clean
water to the community. The issue is
framed as a social justice struggle with
lack of clean water seen as a form of
disenfranchisement for communities, not
only in Uganda but throughout Africa.
The exhibition has a very interesting
curatorial practice. Instead of putting
together a perfect art display in linear form,
complete with brilliant curatorial text as a
form of promotional material, the curator
focuses on the “processes of art-making and
display.”
The approach is deliberate - to follow
how the artists respond to the idea of an
exhibition which still is- unfortunately-
regarded within many art circles as the
sole destination for art. The curator, Phillip
Balimunsi, to this end does not alter the
identity of the exhibition space. The antique
limousines of Uganda’s former heads of state
provide a startling background to the art in
the foreground. This obvious incongruity
adds to the power of the exhibition. It raises
water
An exhibition
of contrasts at
the musuem
another set of questions: how much attention
did the former presidents who rode in the
limousines give to the issue of social justice?
In an almost similar trick, the curator
divides the art into two parts. In the foyer of
the gallery are the artworks of experienced
artists and on the dais are the works of the
pupils from International schools. According
to the curator, there is a clear distinction
kids who will follow the theme faithfully,”
observes Balimunsi.
The disparity matches the contrast
between the motive of the artist who creates
the works and the audience intended to
embrace the work. In this context, it is
clear that the established artist is largely
motivated to produce art to sell rather than
engage the public. The audience appreciates
that as much as art is used to advocate for
social change, casting a critical gaze on
the processes of art making and display
improves the perception of exhibitions
in contemporary art. The curator also
technically nudges the audience to always
think of alternatives in order to interrupt
their everyday normal.
The exhibition is a brainchild of Viva Con
Agua, Uganda; a community based initiative.
The exhibit is ongoing at the Car Gallery,
Uganda Museum.

Dec. 13 - 19 2019 37
Banana duct-taped to white Man has been recording his everyday life for 10 years
wall sells for Shs45m Morris Villarroel, a
Spanish scientist at the
met, every 15 to 30 minutes
of every day.
often get upset about small
incidents, like someone
Polytechnic University of In an interview with the cutting in front of him or
Madrid, wanted to have a BBC, Morris Villarroel said being stuck in traffic. So he
more detailed and complete that keeping a record of his started using the train or
record of his everyday life, day-to-day life over such walking to work. He says
so he could figure out how a long period of time has this relieved some stress and
to live more effectively. helped him improve his improved his health. It also
Nine years and nine months life. For example, he used improved his performance
later, the scientist says that to drive to work, but soon in class or at conferences
he was right. He writes all after he started writing because he is able to notice
the experiences, the places everything in his log books, small details and implement
he was in, the people he he noticed that he would solutions.

Art collectors are going bananas over

an artwork that essentially consists of a
Farmer paints his dog like a tiger to scare monkeys
real banana duct-taped to a white wall at Desperate to reclaim his farm-
an art gallery, with some paying as much land from a gang of invading
as $120,000 (Approx.Shs45 million) for it. monkeys, a farmer in Karnataka,
Titled “Comedian”, the original artwork by India decided to paint his dog
Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan was on sale to look like a tiger in the hopes
this week from Parisian gallery Perrotin, that it would scare the monkeys
at the Art Basel festival in Miami. The first away. The dog already had a
edition of the artwork was snatched up by reddish hair color, so all Srikant
a French art collector for the mind-blowing Gowda of Karnataka’s Shiva-
price of $120,000, and according to gallery mogga region had to do was
owner Emmanuel Perrotin a second edition add the black stripes and some
white to give it the tiger look. He
of Comedian was already sold for the
also placed large posters of real
same dizzying price. After successfully
tigers and his own fake tiger all
selling two bananas for a total of $240,000,
over his farmland. According
the artist and the Perrotin gallery owner
to media reports, his trick ruse
decided to up the price of the third edition
was so successful that it inspired
to $150,000. They sold that too. other Indian farmers to copy.

Airline to open inflight food restaurants Fathers and spoilt sons

Airplane food isn’t exactly
considered “haute cuisine”, but
one budget airline is betting that
people love its airplane food
so much that they’d be willing
to pay for it at restaurants on
the ground. AirAsia, the larg-
est budget carrier in Asia, has
announced plans to open over
100 restaurants globally within
the next five years. The restau-
rants will be offering the same
menu AirAsia sells on flights.
The move is part of AirAsia’s
plans to become a lifestyle
brand, and the company hopes
that its Asia dishes will make
people choose it over Western
competitors.
A 22-year-old man was recently deliberately scratched a BMW
saloon at a car bond in Jiangxi City for a very bizarre reason – so
his father would be forced to buy it for him according to the
“you break it you buy it” principle. The 22-year-old Ji Moubing,
reportedly visited the BMW dealership on Nov. 25 and expressed
interest in buying the dark blue saloon. He acted normally and
actually seemed really excited, telling one salesman that his father
had promised to buy him a nice car as reward for getting his driv-
er’s license. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse after Ji
called his father to tell him what car he wanted. It’s unclear what Ji
Moubing’s father told him during their short phone conversation,
but dealership staff told police that after hanging up his phone, the
22-year-old went into a rage, grabbed a pair of car keys and pro-
ceeded to make a long, deep scratch on the back of the saloon. He
was arrested and it’s unclear whether Ji’s father eventually bought
the car to get his son off the hook.

Man arrested for calling telecom provider 24,000 times to complain

A 71-year-old pensioner from Saitama,
Japan, was recently arrested and charged
with obstruction of business after allegedly
calling the toll-free number of his telecom
provider a whopping 24,000 times over the
last two years, to complain about the service
and demand apologies. In October alone,
Akitoshi Okamoto from Kasukabe City,
allegedly called the toll-free number of Japa-
nese telecom giant KDDI 411 times in a sin-
gle week. He called an average of 33 times a
day for two years. The corporation had been
reluctant to press charges until last week,
when the frequency of complaints became
too much to bear.

38 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
 Driving in a flood
Avoid it if you can, be careful if you can’t
By Motoring Guru
T
he rain these days is throwing up the
unexpected. A road that you have
driven on for years without incident
will easily become flooded. That
is why it is important to recall the tips you
picked up during your defensive driving
school. We share a few here.
First and most importantly, avoid driving
on a flooded road. By flooded road we mean
a road with at least 4 inches of water (your
average car tyre is about 6.5 inches). That
means if the water goes beyond half of your
tyre avoid it. Remember the engine’s air
intake on many cars is down at the front yet
it takes just a fraction of a tea-cup of water
sucked into your engine to damage it.
If you see water and figure it is too deep
for you to walk through, then it possibly
not a good idea to attempt to drive through
either. Take extra caution if the water is
moving. If moving water reaches the win-
dow level of your car, it is possibly enough
to leave the car floating without grip on the
surface below. Two feet of moving water
(about your waist level) can sweet away
most vehicles. It does not matter that you
drive an SUV. Avoid flooded roads.
This caution is made for several reasons:
Water beyond the mid-tyre level can easily
enter the exhaust and kill off your engine
leaving you stranded. Do not try to restart
engine in water. It will be wrecked. Only
6 inches of water on the road is enough to
cause you to lose control of the vehicle, often
with dire consequences. Water under the car
can easily splash into the electrical wiring
and wreak havoc. So, avoid flooded roads.
But what if you cannot? Then you need
to drive with extra caution. Here are some
tips. They are in two parts; part one: decid-
ing whether to drive through or not and
two, how to drive through safely (possibly).
Before driving through any flooded road,
never assume you know the road. Flood
water does strange thing to roads. It can
easily sweep away a whole section or move
manhole covers. It can also hide stuff it has
found in path and deposited on the road,
including sharp objects or dead cows.
If you are unfamiliar with the road, test
the depth of the water with a stick. Remem-
ber, the road is highest in the middle, so use
that to gauge how deep it is on the sides.
When driving, plan your driving to avoid
having to come to a complete stop in the
water if you can; for example if there is a
jam. Follow the path of the drivers before
you who have crossed successfully. Drive
slowly and steadily. This helps you avoid
stirring up the water into a wave that makes
it more difficult to drive.
If you do get stuck in flood water, espe-
cially if it is moving water; stay in the car
because it is safer. Moving water is very
powerful, it can sweep you off your feet
and away. Also, if you feel the car starting
to float, open a door to let water in. It will
make the car heavier and possibly enable
you to regain your grip.
After crossing a flooded patch of road,
test your brakes before speeding off. If you
are not comfortable, allow the brake pads to
dry a bit and test again before driving off.
Dec. 13 - 19 2019 39
global comment
By Andrés Cañizález
Presidents versus the press
Populist leaders love the mass media to spread their
ideas but hate journalism which holds them accountable
U
.S. President Donald Trump has
labeled news outlets the “enemy
of the people.” Brazilian President
Jair Bolsonaro has called journalists
“putrid” and “immoral,” and accused
them of mounting “sensationalist attacks”
against him. Mexican President Andrés
Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO)
has labeled them “nobodies, conservatives,
know-it-alls, hypocrites,” as well as “fifí”
(bourgeois, pretentious) and “chayoteros” (a
term implying that they take bribes).
Populist leaders love the mass media,
which enable them to spread their own
ideas. But they hate journalism, which asks
challenging questions and aims to hold them
accountable. That is precisely why we must
defend it.
Trump, Bolsonaro, and AMLO – who,
despite their differences, share nationalist
views, populist tactics, and anti-democratic
inclinations – have hardly limited
themselves to rhetorical attacks. The Trump
administration has severely curtailed press
access to the White House. It has also
revoked or suspended the press credentials
of many journalists, based on reasoning so
faulty or opaque that judges have ordered
them restored.
Now, Trump has made another ominous
break from tradition. Copies of a diverse
array of magazines and newspapers, from
the Financial Times to The New York Post,
have long been delivered to the White House
daily. This is standard operating procedure
in a democracy: hubs of power must be well
informed, and that means subscribing to all
kinds of media, regardless of their editorial
lines.
Trump, however, decided in October
that neither the The Washington Post nor
The New York Times – both of which he
has often accused of bias and dishonesty –
will be delivered to the White House any
longer. “They’re fake,” he asserted in the
Fox News interview where he announced
his intentions. The Trump administration is
urging other federal agencies also to cancel
their subscriptions.
A week after Trump’s decision, Bolsonaro
followed suit, canceling all government
subscriptions to Folha de São Paulo, one of
Brazil’s most respected newspapers. “I don’t
want to know about Folha de São Paulo,”
Bolsonaro declared, because reading that
paper “poisons my government.” Advisers,
he added, could always go to the newsstand
40 Dec. 13 - 19 2019
and buy a copy – “I hope they don’t accuse
me of censorship” – but no public funds
would be spent on it. “And,” he concluded
threateningly, “who advertises in Folha de
São Paulo pays attention, right?”
Meanwhile in Mexico, AMLO has slashed
the government’s media advertising budget,
directing the cuts at papers critical of the
government, such as Reforma. AMLO
has leveled unsubstantiated accusations
against Reforma that it favoured previous
administrations and is working for secret
interests. The move’s implications are
particularly significant in Mexico, where
media are often dependent on government
ads.
Mexico is also among the world’s most
dangerous countries for journalists. It is
unlikely to be made safer by a president who
regards them as adversaries.
Using the state to punish specific
media outlets for taking an unflattering
editorial line is the purview of dictators.
Turning newspaper subscriptions, media
advertising, and journalist access into a
weapon amounts to an assault on freedom
of the press, expression, and information,
which obviously poses a serious threat to
democracy.
For example, Hugo Chávez, who ruled
Venezuela for 14 years, relentlessly attacked
the press, attempting to undermine its
credibility and paint it as an enemy of the
people. By pushing his own version of
All media,
both targeted
and favoured,
should fight
back, including
by seeking
injunctions in
national and
international
courts
events and creating a hostile environment
for independent news media, he achieved
“communication hegemony.”
Chávez’s successor, Nicolás Maduro,
has followed the same playbook. In recent
years, more than 50 newspapers stopped
publishing print editions, lowered their
publication frequency (from daily to
weekly), or drastically reduced their page
counts and print runs, partly because
exchange controls have blocked imports of
newsprint. Add to that direct government
pressure (such as lawsuits) and economic
collapse (including hyperinflation), and
Venezuela’s free media have been all but
decimated.
It is no coincidence that Venezuela under
Chávez and Maduro has suffered from
catastrophic economic policies, large-scale
corruption, and pervasive cronyism. Today,
Venezuela is a full-fledged dictatorship,
where the government’s political opponents
are detained and protesters face brutal
repression.
Venezuela is thus an object lesson in why
attacks on media by Trump, Bolsonaro, and
AMLO must be taken seriously. All media,
both targeted and favoured, should fight
back, including by seeking injunctions in
national and international courts. Journalists
and others, such as academic associations,
can pursue local-level initiatives aimed
at defending the rights and freedoms of
citizens and media.
NGOs can also help, not only by
unequivocally expressing their
opposition, but also by collecting and
publicising data on media freedom.
Civil society should contribute its own
full-throated defense of media, with
citizens engaging in joint initiatives
with media and their defenders.
An enemy of the free press is an
enemy of democracy. We can’t say they
didn’t warn us.
Andrés Cañizález, a Venezuelan political scientist
and researcher at Universidad Católica Andrés
Bello (UCAB), is the founder of Venezuela’s first
fact-checking organization, Cotejo.info. Twitter:
@infocracia
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
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