UNIVERSITY OF BAGUIO

GRADUATE SCHOOL
MASTERS IN CRISIS AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION MANAGEMENT

Subject: Introduction to Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk (MCDRMS2)

Facilitator: Jezreel B. Vicente, Ph.D
Reporter: Mark Jayson C. Padua
Date: January 14, 2018

Hazard
o A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of
life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social
and economic disruption, or environmental damage.
o Existing condition or possible (under current condition) situation that has the potential to
generate a disaster.
o The terms "hazard" and "risk" are often used interchangeably. However, in terms of risk
assessment, these are two very distinct terms. A hazard is any agent that can cause harm or
damage to humans, property, or the environment. Risk is defined as the probability that
exposure to a hazard will lead to a negative consequence, or more simply, a hazard poses
no risk if there is no exposure to that hazard.

Geo-hazard
o Earth processed (Involving the lithosphere, hydrosphere & atmosphere) that, upon
interaction with human activity, cause loss of life and property

geo- human Hazardous

condition or
process process
result

Types of Hazard

Natural Hazard Man-made Hazard

• Agricultural Diseases & Pest • Hazardous materials

• Drought • Nuclear power plant and Nuclear
• Earthquakes Blast
• Emergency diseases (Pandemic • Radiological emergencies
influenza) • Chemical threat and biological
• Extreme heat weapon
• Flood and Flash flood • Cyber attacks
• Hurricanes and tropical storm • Explosion
• Landside & debris flow • Civil unrest
• Thunder storm & Lighting
• Tornadoes
• Tsunami
• Wildfire
Steps for developing a community hazard analysis
I. Community Profile
1. The Community Profile section of the hazard analysis will give summary information
on general features of the community, plus specific information that is pertinent to
emergency management concerns and analyzing hazards.
2. Data collections are based on the following:
a. Historical Overview
i. Year of establishment
ii. Notable historical events
iii. Notable community citizens, businesses, organizations, economic
activities
iv. Other information that gives a sense of the nature of the community
b. Geography and Climate
i. Physical location of the community
ii. A map of communities in the county
iii. Background information on landforms
iv. Overview of weather patterns
v. Other information that gives a sense of the geographical/climatic
conditions of the community
c. Land Use Patterns
i. Major land uses in the community (present)
ii. Anticipated/planned major land uses (future)
iii. Known hazardous areas in community
iv. General development pattern
v. General types/condition of housing stock
vi. Other special residential conditions or considerations (campgrounds,
seasonal/resort areas, sheltering areas, retirement communities,
dormitories, jails/prisons, health or psychiatric institutions, group
quarters, areas with homeless persons, etc.), including isolated
populations (rural without cars, phones, etc.)
vii. Types of public infrastructure, its general condition and capacity
(sewer, water, power, roads, etc.)
viii. Areas of major land use conflict (i.e., heavy industrial adjacent to
high-density residential)
ix. Current mitigation efforts to lessen the community’s vulnerability to
hazards (committees, projects, capabilities including warning systems
and a description of the extent of their coverage)
d. Transportation Network
i. Interstate highways, state trunk lines, and major local connectors
serving the community
 ii. General condition of roads, bridges, and other elements of the
transportation infrastructure
iii. Freight rail lines, airports, marine ports, passenger rail service, bus
services, and public transit (located in or serving the community)
iv. Other information that gives a sense of the transportation network
in place in the community, or its weaknesses and related hazards
(capacity for mass evacuation, traffic counts, high-accident
intersections, hazardous materials transportation routes, etc.)
e. Population Characteristics
i. Patterns and trends of population growth and migration •
ii. Total current and future projected population of the community and
surrounding region
iii. Age/sex/racial breakdown of the population
iv. Special-needs populations within community (elderly, children,
disabled, etc.)
v. Other information that gives a sense of the population characteristics
of the community
f. Economic Characteristics
i. Total current and projected future economic activity with the
community – especially kinds that might be interrupted or affected
by hazards
ii. Major financial centers and employers/employment sectors within
the community (and region, if appropriate)
iii. Percent of population unemployed, on public assistance, and/or in
poverty
iv. Identification of areas with blight, concentrated poverty, renaissance
zones, or empowerment zones.
v. Community tax revenue and sources (i.e., business tax, sales tax,
property tax, income tax, etc.)
vi. Median household income in different areas
vii. Other information that gives a sense of the economic characteristics
of the community
g. Key Community Facilities/Organizations
i. Description of major community services provided (i.e., police, fire,
EMS, hospitals, public works, planning/zoning, health, waste
management, water/sewer, schools, etc.), and the locations from
which those services operate
ii. Description of electric, gas, telephone and other critical utility
services provided (i.e., service areas, capacity, population served,
etc.); also commercial and industrial areas with resources useful for
sheltering, response & recovery
iii. Description of key private and/or private-non-profit organizations
operating in the community (i.e., Red Cross, active churches, Senior
 Services, recreation centers, community foundations, etc.), and the
locations from which those organizations operate
iv. Description and locations of institutions of higher learning (colleges,
universities, major trade schools, academies, etc.), and their impact
on the community
v. Other information that gives a sense of community functions;
political, social, and economic mechanism
h. Other Information
i. Major activities or events that occur on a regular basis (i.e., festivals,
entertainment shows, demonstrations or other gatherings,
business/trade events, etc.) that could in some way impact the
community’s vulnerability to hazards
ii. Patterns and trends of serious crime/civil disturbance within the
community
iii. Historical “trends” in the community (i.e., strong environmental
orientation, strong support of historic preservation, etc.) that could,
in some way, impact community vulnerability to hazards, or
coordination on hazard mitigation goals

II. Hazard Identification and Assessment

1. Hazard Identification- Define and describe hazards, measures of magnitude
and severity, causative factors, and interrelations with other hazards.
2. Risk Assessment- involves the examination of the community’s hazards using
measures that evaluate such factors as severity, exposure, frequency of events,
types and extent of damage scope of impact, etc. Through this evaluation process,
hazards are identified in detail and a community’s overall risk from those hazards is
assessed (and often mapped, to identify key areas and to tie in with community's
decision-making about future land development). Considering hazard-specific
"worst-case" disaster scenarios may help to determine what critical issues the
community may face—life safety, public health, loss of critical functions, economic
impacts, and short/long term recovery issues—and to plan ways to deal with them.
3. Hazards are the source of risk. If risks are to be assessed, hazards must first be
identified. Risk identification is defined as the process of finding, recognizing and
recording risks
a. Key components:
i. Identification of the causes and source of the risk (hazard in the
context of physical harm), events, situations or circumstances which
could have a material impact upon objectives and the nature of that
impact. Once identified, existing controls for the risk should also be
identified.
b. Data collections are based on the following:
i. Response history
ii. What has happened elsewhere
iii. Hazard survey
 iv. Local disaster history
v. Current scientific knowledge
vi. Environmental sensing

Understanding the Nature and Behavior of Hazard

Force Wind, water (rain, flood, overflow, run-off, flashflood tidal wave, storm
surge, epidemic)
Land (slides, deposits by river, lahar, mudflow)
Fire (forest fire, settlement fire)
Seismic (Earthquake, tsunami, liquefaction)
Conflicts (Civil war, insurgency, other actions leading to displacement and
refugees)
Industrial/technological (Pollution, radio-activity, explosions)
Other Human-induce (Famine, drought, pests, etc.)
Warning signs and Scientific and indigenous indicators that is likely to happen
signals
Forewarning Time between warning and impact
Speed of onset Rapidity of arrival and impact. We can distinguish between hazards that
occur without almost any warning (earthquake), and hazards that can be
predicted three to four days in advance (Typhoon) to very slow-onset
hazard like drought and famine.
Frequency Does hazard occur seasonally, yearly, once every 10 years, once in a
lifetime, etc.
When Does hazard occur at a particular time of the year (wet or dry season; in
November to December)
Duration How long is the hazard felt (Earthquake and aftershocks;
days/week/months that area is flooded; length of period of military
operations

Types of Elements Warning Speed of Frequency When? Duration Element People at Coping Resources
Hazard increasing Signs & onset at risk Risk strategies &
Force Signals & Disaster Capacities
Responses

III. Hazard Mapping

1. This is the process of establishing geographically where and to what extent particular
phenomenon is likely to pose a threat to people, property, infrastructure and
economic activities. –UNDRO
 2. Community profile information should be recorded on a map or maps to show where
the community's people, property, and other resources are located. In hazard
analysis, a map of a community's hazards will be made, and a comparison of where
hazards seem to overlap with people and property on the community profile map
will suggest areas of vulnerability, where mitigation measures should be focused and
prioritized.

SMAUG MODEL PRIORITIZATION PROCESS

o Seriousness, Manageability, Acceptability, Urgency and Growth
o The SMUG model for analysis was developed primarily to assist community groups in
developing a consensus with regard to priority concerns.
o It examines five factors for each hazard. These factors, which are listed below, are
weighted from 1 (Low) to 10 (High) to reflect their relative importance in terms of
community values.

FACTOR DESCRIPTION PRIORITY

RATING
S – Seriousness The risk will affect the most people and/or will High Priority
cost the most money Low Priority
It will affect the least number of people or cost
the least dollars
M - Manageability The risk could be most affected by intervention High Priority
We can do little to affect the risk Low Priority
A – Acceptability The risk is the least acceptable in terms of the High Priority
political, social, or economic impact Low Priority
It will have little political, social, or economic
impact
U – Urgency The risk urgently needs to be fixed High Priority
It could be fixed next year Low Priority
G – Growth The risk will increase quickly High Priority
The risk will remain static Low Priority

The score for each hazard is calculated by the sum of the weighted factors.