International Conference on Electronics, Communication and Aerospace Technology

ICECA 2017

Soft Computing and Data mining Techniques

for Thunderstorms and Lightning Prediction:
A Survey
Kanchan Bala Dilip Kumar Choubey Sanchita Paul
Computer Science Engineering Computer Science & Engineering Computer Science Engineering
Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra
Ranchi, India Ranchi, India Ranchi, India
kanchanbala237@gmail.com dilipchoubey_1988@yahoo.in sanchita07@gmail.com

Abstract - Thunderstorms are fascinating and elegant
event, which occurred frequently all over the world.
When sudden rumbling of sound associated with a bolt
of lightning flashed across the sky, then thunderstorm is
said to be occurring. Lightning is associated with every
thunderstorm, which kills more people than hurricanes
and tornadoes. Heavy rain from thunderstorm causes
extensive loss of property and leads to flooding.
Accurate prediction of thunderstorm is a difficult task
in weather forecasting due to its temporal extension and
spatial either physically or dynamically. Different
technological and scientific researchers are carried on
forecasting of thunderstorm and lightning in advance to
reduce damages. In this regard, there are many
different methodologies have been proposed such as
statistical, machine learning, numerical weather
prediction, weather research forecasting, image
processing etc. This paper focuses on the survey of
several research papers on the thunderstorm and
lightning using soft computing and data mining
techniques such as neural network, rough set, support
vector machine, fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm, k-means
clustering, k- nearest neighbor etc. This paper has been
also enclosed the suggestions on the future research
direction.
Keywords - Thunderstorm, Lightning, Forecast, Soft
Computing, Data Mining, Prediction, Neural Network,
Fuzzy Logic, Weather.
I. INTRODUCTION
A thunderstorm is a series of sudden electrical
discharge resulting from atmospheric conditions.
Electric discharged result in sudden flashes of light
and rumbling sound wave, commonly known as
thunder and lightning. The thunderstorm is a
mesoscale weather spectacular phenomenon with
space scale varying from a few kilometers to a couple
of 100 kilometers and time scale varying from less
than an hour to several hours which occurs
seasonally. A severe thunderstorm is a natural
phenomenon that causes lots of damages to life,
properties, animal and crops. Thunderstorms are
accompanied with lightning flashes, torrential
rainfall, high wind gusts, occasional hail and
tornadoes [1]. Forecasting of severe thunderstorm
and lightning is a challenge for both meteorologists
and atmospheric scientists in the world because such
highly nonlinear and chaotic phenomena may incur
significant detrimental consequences on the huge part
of agricultural productivity.
Moisture, unstable air, and lifting mechanism are
playing an important role in the formation of
thunderstorm. There are many causes that lead to
uplifting of warm and humid air such as air-solar
heating, two different air streams meet, vicinage of
the low pressure channel, etc. When humid air is
lifted upward and cooled then the moisture in the air
is condensed and form clouds. Due to further lifting
of humid air, the cloud would be extended larger and
water droplets continue growing in the cloud and
further freezes to form ice crystals. As soon as the
water droplets are become so heavy, they are falling
as hail. The hail acquires the negative charge due to
rubbing against the ice crystals in clouds. Thus, the
negative charges are collected at the base of the cloud
and positive charges are created at the top of the
cloud. These negative charges are attracted by some
other clouds, objects and earth. When the attraction
extent to large, negative and positive charges are
either discharge or come together to form lightning.
Lightning is further heating and expanded the air,
which produced the thunder. Thunderstorms are
categorized based on their actual physical
characteristic. Actually, there is a continuous
spectrum of thunderstorm type, but these can be
broadly classified into four types- single cell storms,
multicell cluster storms, multicell line storms and
supercell storms. Every thunderstorm poses lightning.
Lightning is generally classified into four broad

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categories: Inter-cloud, cloud-to-cloud, cloud to
ground, cloud to air. Cloud to ground is more
dangerous than the other types of lightning. In
the last two decades, the prediction of thunderstorm
and lightning is an active area of research. Yet it is
still a challenging work for researcher and forecasters
due to its spatial and temporal extension. Soft
computing and data mining have an aim to exploit the
tolerance of uncertainty, approximation and
imprecision to achieve the decision-making. Several
soft computing and data mining techniques are
applied in the prediction of thunderstorm and
lightning with the small scale and short-term forecast.
In this regard, the paper has been organized as
follows: Literature review has been presented and
devoted to the future direction.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
There are several papers which are summarized
on prediction of thunderstorm and lightning using
soft computing and data mining techniques.
Summarization is done in form of a table which
consists of paper title, used data set, techniques, tool,
advantages, issues, and their accuracy.

TABLE I. SUMMARY OF EXISTING WORKS

S.N Paper Data Set Techniques Used Tool Advantages Issues Accuracy
O reference Used
No.
1. [2]. Mean sea level pressure, Artificial Neural ----- ANN with LM algorithm Nowcasting of 76%.
wind speed, and relative Network (ANN) with predicts hourly sudden thunderstorm is not
humidity are collected Levenberg Marquardt falls of temperature as mentioned.
from the Indian (LM) algorithm. compare to the other
Meteorological learning algorithms.
Department (IMD).

2. [3]. Vertical moisture K-Nearest ----- Modified K-NN model is One of the issues is 82.02%
difference and dry Neighbor(K-NN), used as best classifier. that no satisfactory
adiabatic lapse rate at Modified K-NN and Satisfactory result has result can be
different geo-potential Multi Layer been obtained using only obtained for more
heights of 40 years data are Perceptron (MLP). five input variables. than five input
collected from the IMD. variables.

3. [4]. Convective Available Genetic Algorithm MATLA Automated forecasting Automated Brier skill
Potential Energy (CAPE), (GA), Fuzzy Logic B, WRF. scheme produces forecasting scheme score of
Relative Humidity (RH), and Logistic calibrated probabilities, showed not good 32%.
Bulk Richardson Number Regression. unambiguous and Brier resolution
(BRN) and low level consistent desired than human
vertical velocity are output. forecasters.
predictors.
4. [5]. Wind speed, convective Correlation based ----- Analysis is performed This paper has not --------
instability (or stability), Principal Component separately for morning revealed that how
conditional instability (or Analysis (PCA). and afternoon for much accurately
stability) vertical shear of thunderstorm days and predicts the
horizontal wind. fair-weather days. occurrence of a
thunderstorm.

5. [6]. Radiosonde data are used Back Propagation ----- BPN-PCA achieves more Only radiosonde 74.9%
as input and derived 52 Neural Network accurate prediction of data are used for using
atmospheric instability (BPN), Self- cumulonimbus clouds prediction purpose. BPN and
indices from these Organizing Map than BPN. 82.5%
radiosonde data. (SOM) and PCA. with
BPN-
PCA.

6. [7]. Satellite images are taken Saliency map, K- ----- Saliency map improved Lead time of 94%.
from the National Oceanic means clustering and the prediction accuracy. forecasting is not
and Atmospheric Haar wavelet mentioned.
Administration. transform.

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7. [8]. Wind analysis, temperature Rough Set (RS), MATLA RS-SVM has been Applicable for only An
analysis, height analysis, Support Vector B 7.1, predicting the higher regional forecast. accuracy
cloud analysis, water Machine (SVM). GrADS resolution nowcasting of . of 0.71
analysis and derived 1.9 lightning and with 3
analysis and its derivative. thunderstorms hours lead
time

8. [9]. Wind shear is considered MLP. ----- MLP is an excellent Weather variables 98.34%
at four different geo- classifier for the obtained from With 10
potential heights which are nowcasting of severe RSRW flight, which to 12
obtained from rawindsonde thunderstorm using one is limited to a hours lead
during the period of upper air parameter. particular region. time.
18years from IMD.
9. [10]. Composite Constant Fuzzy logic based ----- Membership function has Large number of 40000
Altitude reflectivity PPI clustering. been initialized thunderstorms are storms are
(Plan Position Indicator) statistically which produced which tracked.
(CAPPI), Composite echo- enables the adaptation of required the
top altitudes with the algorithm to the local analysis laboriously
45dBZ(ET45) and climate. and manually.
20dBZ(ET20), CG flash
density map,
Radar-derived rainfall
accumulation, storm area,
storm flash density, storm
radar reflectivity.
10. [11]. Maximum rate of change Naïve Bayesian. ----- Horizontal and vertical Not much 65%.
in top of troposphere growth in convective accurately
emissivity, maximum rate clouds has an excellent predicted.
of change in ice cloud differentiation capability
fraction, rate of change in between severe and non-
area of the storm of top of severe thunderstorm.
troposphere emissivity,
rate of change in the area
of the storm of 0.65 μm
optical depth.
11. [12]. Sunshine hour (SSH), K-NN. ----- K-NN is simple and very Nothing is learned 72.16%
Cloud coverage (Nh), flexible classifier for from training and with a
Pressure at Freezing point prediction required large lead time
(FRZ) and dry adiabatic Learning cost of K-NN is storage size. of 12
lapse rates at different geo- zero. hours.
potential heights of the
atmosphere of 33 years
from IMD.
12. [13]. Satellite images. K-means clustering MATLA The model improves the Segmentation is 89.23%.
and Haar wavelet B efficiency to great extent performed using
transform. R2011a. as compare to the other only clustering
learning methods of technique.
MLP.
13. [14]. Low level clouds types RS. ----- The values of three Every object of 06 GMT
and record of occurrences factors certainty, discourse with some are more
of thunderstorms are coverage and strength are information preferable
collected at 00 GMT, 03 used for the decision rule associated with a for
GMT, 09 GMT and 12 with different condition decision rule. thundersto
GMT of ten years from for a particular decision. rm.
IMD.
14. [15]. PTU (Pressure, ANN-BP. C ANN is simpler and more Not feasible for 67%.
Temperature, and Languag biased for the lightning industry which is
Humidity) table data and e. days. sensible to lightning
lightning data are used as risk.
input.
15. [17]. Electromagnetic field. ANN-MLP feed ----- Modular ANN improves An electromagnetic The
forward with LM the prediction of field is used as relative
algorithm and MTLL locations CG lightning. input, which error is
model. Learning speed of ANN obtained from only less than
is improved using the one radar station. 5% and an
LM. absolute
error not

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ICECA 2017

greater
than 1 km.
16. [18]. Data of four years from the Decision Tree, Naïve R- This paper helps in Optimization of 73% for
Lightning Imaging Sensor Bayesian, K-Means Program forecasting of future time complexity is small
(LIS) aboard the Tropical clustering. ming distribution of lightning. needed through datasets
Rainfall Measuring Languag parallel computing. and 63%
Mission (TRMM) are used. e. for larger
datasets.
17. [19]. Lightning data are Spatial Clustering ----- The model predicts Only predict the 75%.
collected from State Grid lightning every 5 linear-trend
Electric Power Research minutes. movement of
Institute (SGEPRI), China. lightning.
18. [20]. Wind, dew point, ANN-BP. MATLA Computational burden is Post processing is Rms error
humidity, pressure, B. reducing in achieving the needed for is 41%
temperature, cloud height converged solution. achieving perfection with R-
and moisture difference Learning speed of ANN of developed value of
data are collected from is improved using the LM network. 0.99997.
Malasysian Meteorological algorithm.
Service and Tenaga
National Research and
Department.
19 [21]. Laps data and lightning RS, SVM with RBF MATLA The RS-SVM achieves The experiment has 71%.
positioning data are kernel. B 7.1, short time now- casting been conducted on
collected from the Jiangxi GrADS and high resolution data of one year.
. Meteorological 1.9. prediction of lightning.
Administration
show the prediction of thunderstorm with lead time.
[16] and [22] also analyzed and compared the Lead time is 10-12 hour or 3-6 hour. In electronic
several existed soft computing and data mining era, the large scale forecast has been unable to meet
technique on diabetes with their advantages, issues, the requirement. So, we need the development of
technique, tool used, existed work, future work. The short term and small scale forecast research have
used technique, tool has also been discussed on the practical and important significant. In this regard,
basis of following parameter i.e., advantages, issues,
several soft computing and data mining techniques
application.
have been applied for prediction and forecast. It is
III. DISSCUSSION AND FUTURE required a good technique for the predicting
DIRECTIONS thunderstorm and lightning. So, the authors present
Now days, prediction of thunderstorm and lightning the future directions of some papers, along with
is challenging task. Different research papers are existing work which are summarized in the following
included that analyzed on data set, technique, tool table.
used, advantages and disadvantages. Some papers

TABLE II. SUMMARY OF THE FUTURE WORKS OVER THE EXISTING WORK

S.N Paper Exiting Work Future Work

o. Reference
No.

1. [2]. ANN model is used to test the impact of different learning Other soft computing techniques can be applied to further
algorithm on prediction of severe thunderstorm that occurred increase the accuracy, Work can be further extended for more
over Kolkata on 3, 11 and 15 May 2009, Model results are days.
validated by observation.
2. [3]. K-NN, modified K-NN and MLP with two parameters at Other data mining and soft computing techniques with more
different geo-potential heights are used to predict severe weather parameters can be applied to increase the accuracy of
thunderstorms. the result in future work.

3. [8]. The thunderstorm is predicted using RS-SVM with the small Regional geography and climate condition can be considered to
scale and short term on historic data with ignorance of regional improve the accuracy of the model.
geography and climate condition.
4. [9]. The thunderstorm is predicted using MLP with one weather Weather data can obtain globally instead of locally.
variable; Data are obtained from RSRW flight, which is limited
to a particular region.

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5. [10]. Statistical approach, fuzzy logic model with human-oriented
linguistic inference rules, clustering based tracking algorithm
and density based spatial clustering algorithm are used to classify
the severity of the storm.
6. [13]. K-means clustering and wavelet transform techniques are used to
predict the thunderstorms. Segmentation is performed using K-
means clustering technique which uses only color.
7. [19]. The spatial clustering method is adopted to predict the lightning
motion by using historical and real time lightning monitoring
data of the lightning location system.
New parameters and sub model can be integrated into the
existing model to improve an accuracy of the model.
Classification of severity can be also improved using state-of-
the- art methods made by dual-polarization radar.
This work can be further modified using improved
segmentation. Image can be segmented on the basis of
orientation, motion, intensity not only on a color basis.
Prediction of a non-linear movement of thunderstorm cloud can
be included in future work. Another characteristic of lightning
such as density, electricity can be predicted.

8 [21]. RS, SVM and RS-SVM model are used to forecast thunderstorm Special model can be built for certain regional and amount of
with high resolution and short time nowcasting using real data of experimental data can be increased.
one year.

For the future research work, the authors suggest to
develop an expert system of prediction of
thunderstorm and lightning which will provide good
prediction accuracy.
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