2014 Fifth International Conference on Intelligent Systems, Modelling and Simulation

Development of Lifetime Data Management Algorithm for Power Transformers

Sandra Vitolina
Department of Electrical Machines and Devices
Riga Technical University
Riga, Latvia
e-mail: sandra.vitolina@rtu.lv

Abstract— The paper provides a short insight into the
structure of Latvian high voltage transmission network,
describing existing system of complex diagnostic and analyzing
maintenance data to reveal the most frequent locations of
faults in power transformers. Modified inspection schedule of
power transformers is described that serves as a base for
developing effective algorithm for assessment of technical
condition by using transformers’ maintenance data,
considering the results of diagnostic tests and including
prediction of remaining service life. Calculations, performed
by Weibull cumulative distribution function, for determining
service life of the tap changer of 2 power transformers are
presented as a case study.
Keywords- diagnostics; technical condition index; power
transformers; reliability
I. INTRODUCTION
Electrical network with the voltage 330 kV provides
energy to the internal load centers as well as performs energy
transmission within integrated energy system of the Baltic
States. Electrical network with the voltage 110 kV serves for
energy supply to the biggest load points.
Electrical lines and substations with the voltage 330kV
and 110 kV are the base of the transmission network in
Latvia. Current high voltage transmission network developed
intensively in the time period from the 1950’s to 1990’s.
Currently, as shown in Table I, it is composed of 136
substations with 266 power transformers set up.
The majority of transformers are put into operation in
time period since 1971 till 1990. The rated lifetime of the
majority of transformers being in operation is expired or
comes to expiration. Nearly 47% of power transformers are
with working life above 30 years, and statistics show that the
number of failures in the high voltage equipment is with
tendency to increase.
TABLE I. TRANSFORMERS IN THE TRANSMISSION NETWORK IN
LATVIA
The number The number The installed
Voltage (kV) of of capacity
substations substations (MVA)
110 kV 15 22 3325
330 kV 121 244 4902
Total 136 266 8722
Thus the main factor causing the necessity in forced
development of transformers condition inspection means and
methods is the problems in its exploitation beyond the time
foreseen in the norms. The current situation of the
transformers’ park and gathered professional experience
demonstrated that in most of the cases under the conditions
of competition the prolongation of the transformers operation
lifetime for 20-30 years is more profitable than their
substitution for new. For example, in the final expenses of
modernization of TRDN-40000/110 type transformer
account for 30 - 40% of the purchasing of a new transformer.
At the moment the economic situation can insist the
enterprises not only on the prolongation of the transformers
operation lifetime but in some cases on the increasing of
loading and decreasing of the expenses. This requires
operation and maintenance managers to fully understand the
probable technical condition of old and often highly loaded
units. This also requires ranking of equipment for purposes
of prioritizing maintenance expense or capital investment.
This situation, especially under the conditions of free market,
requires paying a specific attention to the increasing of the
total lifetime of transformers with more effective inspecting
of their technical condition and optimization of the
preventive measures. The aim of the article to reflect the
developed lifetime data management algorithm, that is based
on complex diagnostic system used in Latvia, and that
provides assessment of transformer’s technical condition and
risk priority, , as well as provides possibility to determine
remaining service for particular parts of the transformer.
II. CONDITION BASED MAINTENANCE AND COMPLEX
DIAGNOSTICS
Power transformers age increases the risk of failure due
to the aspect that internal condition degrades. Failures are
usually triggered by severe conditions, such as lightning
strikes, switching overvoltages, short-circuits or other
incidents. When the transformer is new, it has sufficient
electrical and mechanical strength to withstand unusual
system conditions. As transformers age, their insulation
strength can degrade to the point that they cannot withstand
system events such as short-circuit faults or overvoltages.
Preventing these failures of transformers and maintaining
transformers in good operating condition is a very important
issue for utilities. Traditionally, routine preventative
maintenance programs combined with regular testing were
used in Latvian high voltage transmission network. Such

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DOI 10.1109/ISMS.2014.83
time-based maintenance consisted of periodically inspecting, Start
servicing, and cleaning electrical equipment and replacing
parts to prevent sudden failures and process problems.
1st group
Complex diagnostic was scheduled for the units with the Tests
worst technical condition to determine the necessity and
amount of repair. The basic stages of the complex Poor Oil
diagnostics are listed in Table II [2]. All good/fair
Oil Quality Condition
regeneration Index
TABLE II. BASIC STAGES OF COMPLEX DIAGNOSTICS Poor DGA/
physical/thermal
Stage Description of the stage condition
Minor repair/
Analysis of the regular defects and failures rate of
1 calibration of
transformers of particular type external components
Maintenance of transformer and gathering of technical
information 2nd group
2
(for example, on operation regimes, load, climate conditions, Tests
air pollution, etc.)
Analysis of the technical information and results of service
3
measurements Good/fair Maintain/
Taking of oil samples and their physical-chemical laboratory Condition Revise
4 Index frequency of
analysis
Measurements of transformers operating in no-load and 1st group Tests
loading regimes Poor
5 (for example, measurements of partial and disruptive 3rd group
discharges, thermography testing, examining of tanks and Test
cooling systems oil pumps for vibration etc.)
Regular electric measurements for disconnected transformer
(for example, transformation coefficient, resistance of
6 Condition
winding insulation and tgδ, active resistances of the
windings, no-load losses etc.) Index Good/fair
Preparation of technical reports
Poor
7 (results of testing, analysis of the results, conclusion on the
transformer condition, etc.) Reduce loading and
prepare for major repair,
upgrade or replacement
Complex diagnostics requires significant time with the
associated direct and indirect costs to do it. With End
deregulation, it has become increasingly necessary to reduce
maintenance costs and equipment inventories. This has led to Figure 1. CBM implementing for in-service power transformers.
reductions in routine maintenance. There is also a trend in
the industry to move from traditional time-based The modified inspection algorithm of high power
maintenance programs to condition-based maintenance [3]. transformer that is effectively applied in Latvian high voltage
Condition – based maintenance uses electrical equipment transmission network and giving positive results is
diagnostics to monitor and diagnose power transformer represented in Fig. 2. The measurements of the first stage of
condition continuously or intermittently during operation. As this algorithm provide minimum of the necessary
its name implies, condition-based maintenance is triggered information on the general technical condition of transformer
by actual electrical equipment condition rather than the and give the possibility to detect the most significant defect
elapsing of a predetermined interval of time as in TBM. formed in transformer. These measurements are performed at
Establishing CBM as the maintenance approach for a least once in accordance with the documentation of internal
system has several immediate effects on operation and norms. For the further following the tendency of the changes
maintenance of the system. Since CBM is affected by the of technical condition the next term of the inspection can be
failure modes of the system and the way that different changed depending on the real technical condition of the
operating modes affect those failure modes, CBM can transformer [2].
influence the operational scheduling of a system. It is necessary to follow the algorithm to provide
There are many variations of CBM algorithms, which necessary information in the form of measurement
can be applied in power transformer’s maintenance practice results/technical data for further technical operation, repair
[4],[5],[6]. There is one example of them, see Fig. 1. Taking works and prediction of transformer’s remaining lifetime and
such accepted diagnostic algorithms of often applied risk evaluation.
diagnostic tests allows concluding that some of the
diagnostic tests have an informative character only or
duplicate the information already obtained by means of other
methods and view of the formed defect. Therefore it is
possible to refuse purposively from some of them or to
replace them with those of other type.

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 Figure 2. Optimized algorithm of diagnostics.

III. TECHNICAL CONDITION ALGORITHM TABLE III. STRUCTURE OF TCI ALGORITHM

The determination of transformer technical condition Basis Level
Weight
index (TCI) is a complex process. It depends not only on the coefficient TCI
Diagnostic tests (a) (b)
results of diagnostics but also on the integration of the results (c) (zxbxc)
Possible values
of technical service and loading reports, on the age and other
factors of operation providing an objective and quantitative 1st group
overview of the transformer technical condition. The Dissolved gas
methodology demands from each particular evaluation of the analysis
technical condition to be technically interpreted and Oil analysis
0.25;
compared with the indicator of the results of technical 3;
Thermography 0.5; 0.5;
condition evaluation. 2;
1; 0.75; (zxbxc)
1;
The structure of TCI algorithm is shown in Table III in etc. 1.5
0
1;
which diagnostic tests are categorized in groups according to 1.25
2nd group
Fig.2. For each tests 3 parameters are calculated:
 Basis – depends on the number of tests indicating the 3rd group
same type of defect; Additional tests
 Level – depends on results obtained in particular TSI 1st group –CL-COP+
diagnostic test; Total
TSI 2nd group+ TSI 3rd group+ TSI additional
 Weight coefficient – depends on periodicity of
diagnostic test. If the realization of certain diagnostic test assigned to the
base value is a constant value (unless there is a change in

454
present diagnostic test range), the level and the weight factor
is a variable. In determining the levels limits predetermined
in standards and instructions are taken into account as well as
practical experience gathered from technical literature. One
of the simplest options in determination of the levels shown
in Table IV, where, depending on quantitative results of the
vibration measurement level is determined regardless of the
transformer design or other characteristics. However during
the assessment oil analysis results, it is important to know
both the transformer rated power and voltage, as well as the
ratio between the active part of the transformer volume of
oil, and construction (free breathing or sealed), thus
providing that identical results can indicate different levels.
It should be noted that for several diagnostic tests, such
as dissolved gas analysis (DGA) rather complex algorithms
including Rogers ratio method, analysis of fault gas ratios
CO2/CO and O2/N2, Duval triangle method, C3Hn as
additional criterion etc. are used to determine the level and to
obtain also first indication on possible fault type
TABLE IV. ECXAMPLE OF DETERMINING LEVELS
Results of vibration measurement on transformer
Level
tank
< 6 mm/s 3 „ABB”. For the transformer produced according to GOST
6...10 mm/s – the first indication of a defect according
2
to practical experience
10 -20mm/s- increased values, posiibility of a defect
1
increases
>20 mm/s – exceeds the limits defined in standards 0 - the number of increasing of exploitation time level that also
Different variations are designed in the TCI algorithm to
calculate the weight coefficient for each diagnostic test
depending on periodicity and availability of data about the
previous measurement. Some of variations are listed below:
1) Last measurement is/is not made within 12 months;
2) This type of measurement is never performed for
particular transformer;
3) Results of previous measurements are/are not
available
4) Previous measurement is/is not made within 12
months;
5) Results are /are not available for all measurement
schemes;
6) Temperature data are /are not available etc.
By multiplying the base, level and the weight coefficient
values TCI is obtained. First evaluation is performed for
evaluating the results of diagnostic tests in the first group as
they are made with predetermined periodicity. From the
resulting TSI numerical values of coefficient CL, which
characterizes transformer lifetime and COH, which
characterizes operation history of particular transformer are
subtracted. The testing of the next group is organized if tests
in previous group show possible problems of TCI are less
than 80 Additional tests are organized under the condition
that the final TCI (summing up the parameters of the first to
third group) is less than 60.
Risk is a complex aspect covering the probability of
failures and the evaluation of its negative sequences.
455
Therefore it is necessary to know the potential risks, short-
term and long-term risks.
Detection of risks in the area of transformers exploitation
is an aspect of top importance because the transformer
defects and their further sequences can be very negative and
significantly impact the producer of the electric power and
its operator as well as its final consumers.
The risk evaluation is directly connected with TCI.
Higher indicates TCI the lower are the risks. Classification of
risks includes 5 levels which form risk matrix as shown in
Table V. The level of risk is defined previously determining
the potential sequences of the risk and its possibility of the
risk are directly connected with TCI value, for example: 80 <
TCI < 106 and 60 < TCI < 80, then it corresponds to the
evaluation of risk as "low dangerous", if in its turn 10 < TCI
< 60, then it is Щdangerousā and finally, if TCI < 10, then it
corresponds to the evaluation „very dangerous”.
It is necessary to turn the attention to the period of
exploitation and the significance of its impact on the total
TCI evaluation. For example, two transformers similar in
their technical conditions (without defects) produced under
different condition and in different years: TDTNG
10000/110 1960, „ZTZ” and TNOR3E 16000/110 PN 2010,
TCI is equal to 61.3 being up to the evaluation - normal, and
for the transformer produced according to IEC standard TCI
is equal to 80.8 also being up to the evaluation - good. In the
essence of these two calculations there is only one difference
influences the final result. Therefore in similar situations if it
is more efficient to consider the planning of modernization
than the rejection of transformer from exploitation [2].
TABLE V. DETERMINATION OF RISK LEVEL
Sequences of risk
Possibility of risk Low Very
Dangerous
dangerous dangerous
Insignificant Reasonable Tolerable
Not possible
risk risk risk
Reasonable Tolerable Significant
Less possible
risk risk risk
Possible
Tolerable Significant Inadmissible
risk risk risk
IV. ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS OF MAINTENANCE DATA OF
A TRANSFORMER
The further prognosis of failures is the most important
information for the service engineers group to avoid from the
system downtime. In order to make prognosis for the electric
equipment, in this case high power transformers, it is
required the direct connection with diagnostics, as the
prognosis of transformers technical condition and remain
lifetime is not possible without initial detection of failures.
The full rated operation lifetime of transformer directly
depends on the construction of the transformer, producer,
modes of network and inspection, maintaining regulations
and measures, diagnostics and repairing. The determination
of technical condition of some of the transformer groups is
not permissible. Each transformer should be inspected
individually taking into account its exploitation report t t0
)
 t  t 0  1 ( 
including the results of diagnostics as well as activities of f (t )  ( ) e
technical service.    

Insulation is significant component in power transformer,
since the insulation practically determines remaining service where η – scale factor or characteristic life; β – shape
life. However, if the identified fault affects another relevant parameter or slope of Weibull plot; and t0 – location
component, then the prediction of remaining service life also parameter or guarenteed life (t0 = 0 in a two-parameter
must reflect this diagnosis. Weibull).
Information about all power transformers and One way how to estimate parameters is a graphical
autotransformers in time period from 1998 to 2012 was method (probability plotting). Probability plotting provides a
analyzed to estimate the situation of Latvia power system`s visual goodness–of–fit test. Before a probability plot can be
power transformer faults. Fig. 3 shows distribution of the constructed, an estimate for the cumulative distribution
faults depending on location that is obtained by applying function F(t) is needed. The most common estimate is the
Nordel classification method of faults [7] to statistical data median rank. The median rank is a non-parametric estimate
on faults of power transformers in Latvian transmission of the cumulative distribution function based on ordered
network. The diagram allows to conclude that highest failures. The expression for rank is (3)
percentage of faults is related to tap changer (53.6%),
followed by bushings (14%) and cooling system, including i  0.3
integrated automatics for cooling (8%). Median rank (t i ) 
 n  0.4  
55%
where i is the failure order and n is the total number of
45%
data points, both edited and unedited [9].
Statistical data of two transformers from substations of
35%
power transmission grid in Latvia were analyzed using the
Weibull calculations method.
25%
The transformer T1 and the transformer T2 is in
15%
operation since 1977 and 1971 accordingly. Since 2002 the
majority of the faults have been registered for the tap
5%
changer for these transformers. Therefore two-parameter
Weibull distribution was used in order to determine service
Tank
transformers

Core
Sensors

Unclassified
Cooling
Tap changer

Bushings

Windings
Foundation
system

life of the tap changer. Probability plotting in Fig. 4 was

Instrument

constructed by using median rank method, the results of

analysis are provided in Table VI.

TABLE VI. RESULTS OF WEIBULL METHOD FOR THE TAP

Figure 3. Classification of faults.
CHANGER

The Weibull distribution accurately describes the Transformer T1 Transformer T2

distribution of data on service life of electrical equipment β 6.5 6.5
and is particularly effective in prediction. It can provide
η 31 34
reasonably accurate analysis and prediction of failures with Mean service life of
few data points, and therefore facilitates cost-effective and 30 33
the tap changer
efficient component testing. Application of Weibull
distribution has proven to be successful also for power The method allows evaluating the technical condition of
transformers [8]. the component and its mean service life. The obtained results
The three-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution show that risk of failure is high due to technical condition of
function, F(t), that predicts the cumulative probability of tap changer for both transformers.
failure up to a specific time, t, is mathematically expressed
by (1). The probability density function, f(t) which is a
derivative of the cumulative distribution function, is
expressed by formula (2):

t t0 
(
)

F (t )  1  e 


456

2.0
1.0
0.5
6.0
99.90
99.00
90.00
Unreliability, F(t)
50.00
10.00
5.00
1.00
1 10
a b
Figure 4. Weibull cumulative distribution functions for the tap changers
of a) transformer T1 and b) transformer T2.
V.
For the analysis of risk and especially for the estimation
of risk probability the designing, production, operation,
political and management decision making have the critical
significance. The modified inspection algorithm and
developed TSI algorithm allows applying diagnostic tests
that are relevant for assessment of technical condition of
particular transformer.
The research based on statistical data about power
transformers in Latvian high voltage transmission a network
show that prolonging the lifetime of individual unit is
topical. Technical condition of the transformer’s components
determines overall remaining service life at a large extent.
Tap changer, cooling system, and bushings are components
with the highest contribution of faults and in coming years
such faults can be expected repeatedly.
The research of scientific papers and practical case
studies of transformers T1, T2 allows concluding that the
Weibull analysis method is the most suitable in such
situation. The necessary maintenance data of the transformer
can be obtained by using CBM maintenance strategy; also
this method does not require additional and complex
diagnostic tests.
2.0
6.0
1.0
0.5
β β ACKNOWLEDGMENT
99.90
99.00
90.00
This work has been
ɳ
Unreliability, F(t)
ɳ
supported by European Regional Development Fund Project
50.00 Nr. 2011/0005/2DP/2.1.1.1.0/10/APIA/VIAA/014
“Improvement of operational efficiency of power
transformers in transmission system by applying reliability
centered maintenance strategy”.
10.00
REFERENCES
5.00
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[2] G.Gavrilovs “Development of integrated exploitation approach to
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[3] M. Modares, “Risk Analysis in Engineering,” Broken Sound Parkway
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[4] J.M Wetzer, C.J Cliteur, W.R Rutgers and H.F.A Verhaart
“Diagnostic and Condition Assessment Techniques for Condition
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Insulation and Dielectric Phenomena, pp. 47-51.
[5] CIGRE Working Group 12.18 “Life Management Techniques for
Power Transformers,” Final report, CIGRE SC 12, 2002K.
CONCLUSIONS [6] Young Z.Y.G, Mohd A.T. and Hannah A. R., “TNB experience in
condition assessment and life management of distribution power
transformers,” in Proc. 2009 of the 20th International Conference and
Exhibition on., pp. 1-4.
[7] Grid Disturbance Group (STÖRST), “Nordel’s Guidelines for the
Classification of Grid Disturbances”, Nordel’s Operations
Committee, July 2008. [Online, Accesed December 26, 2013].
[8] Jongen R., Gulski E., Morshuis P., Smit J., Janssen A. “Statistical
Analysis of Power Transformer Component Life Time Data”. The 8th
International Power Engineering Conference (IPEC 2007), Singapore,
2007, pp. 1273-1277
[9] Wego W., “Reverse Engineering. Technology of Reinvention”. CRC
Press Taylor & Francis Group. New York, 2011, pp. 227-234, 342 p
Sandra Vitolina received Dr.sc.ing.
degree in electrical engineering from Riga Technical
University in 2007. From 2010 she is an associated professor
at Department of Electrical Machines and Devices in Faculty
of Power and Electrical Engineering. Fields of scientific
interests are technical condition assessment of high-power
electrical machines, and application of numerical methods
for solving tasks in engineering.
Adress: Kronvalda blv.1, Riga, LV-1010, Latvia.
Phone: +371 26761486; Fax: +371 67089418
E-mail: sandra.vitolina@rtu.lv
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