Research

by

Ibrahim Adamu

Submission date:
 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

Nigeria officially the Federal Republic of Nigeria is a country in West Africa,

bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroun in the east and
Benin in the west. Its coast in the south is located on the Gulf of Guinea in the
Atlantic Ocean. The Federal Capital Territory Abuja is where the capital
headquarter is located. By constitution, Nigeria is democratic secular state, it lies
between latitudes 40 and 140 N, and longitudes 20 and 150 E. Nigeria has total area
coverage of 923,768km2 (356,669 sq miles) having estimated 200,962,417
population size (2019), as against 140,431,790 (2006 census)

Agriculture is the backbone of Nigeria’s secondary economy after oil and it

contribute to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it is the major employer of
labour and contribute to Foreign Exchange Earnings. Cereals, rice, maize (corn),
millet, sorghum and wheat are among the major crops produced in the country,
mostly in the north. Increase in rice cultivation was experienced in 2018 covering
land area of 4,065.49 million hectares that was put in to rice cultivation, across the
country, an increase of 7.98% of value added in agriculture against 3,764.96
hectares in2007 and 40% in GDP (Government of Nigeria). Rice forecast for this
year stand at 8,403.36 million metric tons (MT) against 7,835.12 million tones
reflecting 7.25%, 2017. Sorghum covers total land area of 5,848,460 hectares
compared to 5,636,180 hectares in 2017, this represents 3.77% increase.

The production forecast for 2018 increased by 4.50 from 6,431,670MT in 2017 to
6,721.180MT in 2018. Maize is the second most important crop in Nigeria after
Rice and is produced across the states. The total estimated land area in 2018 stand
as 6,021.20 million hectares as compared to 5,773.62 million hectares in 2017,
about 4.29% increase. The production also increased to 12,759.99 million MT in
2018 compared to 12004.65 million MT in 2017, with percentage increase of
6.29%. Millet is an important cereal crop mainly grown in the Northern part of
Nigeria. in 2018 a total of 1,734.300 hectares was devoted for millet compared to
1.676,630 hectares in 2017. An increase of 5.35% was realized from 1,783,970MT
in 2017 to 1,879,350MT in 2018.

Nigerian total grain production stands at 19.1 million tons in 2018-2019 from 18.9
million tons which is higher than (2017) as indicated by the international Grain
Council (IGC). The production figure includes an unchanged 11 million tones of
corn and 6.5million of sorghum, higher than the previous year of 6.3 million tones
(world-grain.com). In another research, Nigeria is regularly exposed to food
insecurity due to its increase in population, this phenomena resort to importation of
food and International aid. Nigeria’s domestic food production has for decades
been outpaced by population growth, with an annual rate of 3.77% which is the
fastest population growth in the world. The attributing situations are number of
factors like climate change, strong demographic pressures leading to imbalanced
resource use, limited access to inputs and equipment that favors serious
inadequacies in basic service and infrastructure. Nigerian agricultural product is
characterized by subsistence farming where rural household needs are determine
by the scale of production. Small piece of land mostly little above 0.5 hectare are
cultivated by individual small farmer holder using traditional method of farming.

Grain production for domestic consumption appears to follow the pattern of food
demand rate: increased production was achieved mainly through extension of
cultivated land. According to FAO (2005) each year 70,000 to 80,000 hectare of
new land are occupied by crop at the expense of forests and livestock because of
population growth and land cultivation. Variation in area and yield occurs mainly
in response to distribution, timeliness and irregularities in rainfall and other
climatic factors and also unavailable crop specific inputs.

Cereals production represents almost 80% of the total national grain production.
Millet and sorghum are the main cereal crops producing in the country and
represent about 75.64 and 23.12% of the total cereal output respectively (WFP,
2005). Indeed Nigerian domestic food production plays an important role in the
country’s food security as more than 80% of rural areas depend on agriculture and
animal rearing for their livelihood. The main challenge for Nigeria authorities is on
how to become self-sufficient in food having diverse agricultural land and huge
rural labor force. The matter is really challenging but finding ways to increase
agricultural production is crucial for the well-being of Nigeria population. For any
bad harvest periods there followed a chronic food shortage and are caused by high
of poverty of its populace. Nigeria cannot rely on food import, approximately two
thirds of the population lives below poverty line and one thirty below the extreme
poverty line (World Bank, 2005). The present administration improves on dry
season farming of crops like rice, maize and wheat.

Crop production forecasts are widely recognized as important input for food
balance sheets and for anticipating shortfall. The main purpose of crop forecasting
is to provide advance information on food crop production and food supply in a
country. One of the most important and highly popularized time series model is the
Box-Jen approach, commonly known as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average). Researchers have used this approach for many different
scientific and technical applications Iqbal et al. (2005), forecasted the weather area
and production in Pakistan up to 2022 and found that the cropped area and output
would increase in the future, if soil conservation and forecast growth trends are
adopted. Ahmad et al. (2005), also developed ARIMA models to forecast growth
trends of production and export of Kinnow from Pakistan up to 2023 and
concluded that there will be increase in trend in the coming years. Goldsmith and
Masuda (2009), used time-series data to forecast world soybean production and
harvest area up to 2030 by developing ARIMA models and found that world
soybean production is predicted to increase about 2.2% annually. Badmus et al.
(2011) forecasted Nigeria Maize production and harvested Area and concluded that
production and harvested Area are expected to increase in the future years.
Forecasting in future land to be put under cultivation may help Nigerian
government to make policies on available land use and further food production
capacity. Projection on total food production is important for implementing proper
measures to face an eventual food deficit in the country.

MATERIAL AND METHOD:

Respective time series data were collected from the National Institute of Statics
Nigeria. Secondary data on production and harvest covering 40years period 1970
to 2010 were used in the forecasting. Box and jankins (1976), linear time series
model was applied. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), model
is used for forecasting time series on the data obtained. The ARIMA estimation
model selection is considered being a classical topic covered in most textbooks on
time series analysis (Brockwell and Davis, 2003; Hamilton, 1994; Tsay 2005; 2005
Wei, 2005). According to Meyler et al, (1998), the main advantage of ARIMA
forecasting is that it requires data on time series in question. First this feature is
advantageous if one is forecasting a large number of time series data. Second, this
avoids problem that occurs sometimes with multivariate sample. The model was
introduced to restore behavior of a process subject to random shocks over time
between two successive observations of series measuring the activity of the
process. A random even is called disturbance that affects the temporal behavior of
this process and thus changes the observation value of the time series. In general,
ARIMA model is characterized by the notion ARIMA (p, d, q), where p, d and q
denote orders of auto-regression, integration (differential) and moving average
respectively.

METHODOLOGY

REVIEW OF LITREATURE

Nath et-al. (2018), use time series modeling to forecast wheat production in India,
and the results shows the ARIMA 11, 1, 0) model was the best model for their
study . They had forecasted the wheat grain for a period of 10years using ARIMA
(11, 1, 0)model.
The forecasted result shows that wheat production will continuously increase with
an average growth rate of approximately 4% yearly.

Zakari and Ying (2012), forecasted the production and harvest of two main crop
(millet and sorghum) in Niger using ARIMA model. The time series production
and harvested data and the total land area on grain production was 21317.4
thousand hectares and 12677.9 thousand hectares up to 2030 respectively. The
model also shows that millet and sorghum production would be 4,503 tons
respectively at the same period. The result may help Niger authorities build a
strong strategy in eradicating vulnerability of food insecurity and make policies
with regard to relative price structure. They use of ARIMA (2,1,2) and (1,1,0) ware
found to be appropriate for total grain production respectively. Hemavath and
prabakaran analysed data for the period of 1990-91 to 2014-15 by time series
model. They applied Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto
Correlation Function (PACF) to calculate the data. Appropriate box-Jenkins Auto
Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. The validity of
the model (ARIMA) was tested using standard statistical techniques. For
forecasting area, production and productivity ARIMA (0, 1, 2, ) (0, 1,1) and (0,
1,1) model respectively were used to forecast five leading years. The result also
shows area forecast for the year 2020 to be about 158,15 thousand hectares with
upper and lower limit 200.85 and 122.80 thousand hectares respectively,
production forecast about to be 637.05 thousand tones with upper and lower limit
of 1057.63 and 216.47 thousand tons respectively and productively forecasted to
be about 3.79 thousand kg per hectare with upper and lower limit of 5.83 and 1.75
thousand KG per hectares respectively.

Badmus and Ariyo applied time series to forecast the cultivated area and
production of maize in Nigeria. The two researchers utilized Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, time series data covering the period
of 1970-2005 was analyzed. The result also shows that maize production
forecasted for the year 2020 to be about 9952.72 tons with upper and lower limits
of 6479.8 and 13425.64 thousand tons respectively. They also shows that the maize
area would be 9229.74 s with lower and upper limit of 7087.67 and 11371.81
thousand hectares respectively 2020. The projection is an indicator for good
policies in making decision with respect to relative production price structure as
well as consumption of Maize in Nigeria. Savadatti P. (2O17), in his research on
Forecasting of Area Production and Productivity of Food Grain in India, Esther et
al.(20 17), conducted a research from 2016-17 onwards, and used univariate time
series analysis known as ARIMA analysis, they used ARIMA (2,1,2) ARIMA (4,1
0) and ARIMA (3,1,3) models were fitted to the data on area, production, and
productivity of food grains respectively and these models were found to be
adequate. The forecast values indicated that production and productivity will
increase during the forecast period but found that of area exhibited near stagnancy,
calling for timely measures to enhance the supply of food grains to meet the
increasing demand in the years to come. This study focuses on forecasting
production of pulses in Kenya using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) model. Time series data on production collected from Food and
Agriculture Organization of United Nations (FAO) statistical year books for the
period 1961 to 2012 were modeled. The study found that ARIMA (1, 1, 2) was the
appropriate model to forecast pulses production in Kenya. The research found on
the forecast showed, 2543753 tons of pulses would be produced in 2020, 2342.27
tons in 2025 and 25357.44 tons in 2030, if all things are fully implemented.
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2. Zakari, S. and Ying, L2012). Forecasting of Niger Grain Production and
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