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By: Frank Spencer MSc(Eng)

Agenda
 Introduction
 Current Energy Scenarios
 Future Energy – Business as Usual
 Sustainability Issues
 Future Energy – Sustainable
 Key Goals for Sustainable Energy
Current Energy Demand
Current Electricity Supply
Future – Business as Usual
900
800
700
600
500
Other
PJ

400 Liquid
300 Electricity
200
100
0
2003 2050
Sustainability - Electricity
 Capacity Issues
 Demand increasing
 Price increasing
 Price inconsistent with long term cost
 Demand targeting + steep penalties
 High Carbon and other emissions (pollution)
 High transmission losses to the Cape
 Coal is a finite resource
 Nuclear option massively expensive
Sustainability – Liquid Fuels
 Oil Supply & Costs
 Fuel production shortfall by 2012
 Tourism Impacts
 Paraffin dangerous and inefficient
Sustainability – Transport
 Inefficient – many cars, low occupancy
 Inefficient - busses with poor aerodynamics & engines
 Rail (or BRT) best - not used extensively as it could
Sustainability – Carbon
 Coal & oil based energy = CO2e emissions
Sustainable Future - Solar
Sustainable Future - Wind
Sustainable Future - Biomass
Sustainable Future – Mini-hydro
Transformation Results: Capacity
Scenario: Prog Ren Ref Dem, Capacity: All Capacities Biomass Cogen
Hydro
9,500 Municipal Waste
Pumped Storage
9,000
Solar PV off grid
8,500 Solar PV grid con.
Solar Th Elec no st.
8,000
Solar Th Elec with st.
7,500 Ocean Energy
Wind High CF
7,000
Wind Medium CF
6,500 Imp Ren Energy
New Nuclear
6,000 New foss mid and pk
5,500 New Fossil Base
Megawatts

Exist mid and peak


5,000 Existing Base
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Sustainable Future
900
800
700
600
Efficiency
500
Other
PJ

400 Biofuels
300 Liquid
200 Electricity
100
0
2003 2050BAU 2050SUS
Renewables vs Fossil
Production Split 2050
Goals - Production
 Local Renewable Energy Production
 Large Scale Renewables
 SWH
 Biogas
 “Virtual” Power Stations – Energy Efficiency
 Support IPPs / On-site production
 Jobs
 Low energy consumption / carbon emission
 High energy production
 Carbon trading /tax
Goals - Consumption
 Energy Saving Plan
 Energy Efficiency
 Heat recovery, HVAC, geysers, motors, lighting, etc
 Efficient Buildings – SANS204 / Green Star
 Variable Tariffs
 Smart Meters
 Efficient Cooking
 Local is lekker
 Transport interventions