Proceedings of TENCON 2018 - 2018 IEEE Region 10 Conference (Jeju, Korea, 28-31 October 2018)

PMU-based Distribution System State Estimation

Paul Eugene Delfin C. Bundoc, Jordan Rel C. Orillaza
Electrical and Electronics Engineering Institute
University of the Philippines Diliman
Quezon City, Philippines
paul eugene delfin.bundoc@upd.edu.ph, jordan.orillaza@eee.upd.edu.ph

Abstract—Phasor measurement unit (PMU) technologies pro-
vide new opportunities for state estimation, even an opportunity
to replace SCADA-based state estimators. This paper presents
a state estimator that utilizes only PMU measurements, namely
bus voltage magnitudes and angles. Linear regression was used
to generate mathematical models. This paper also presents a sys-
tematic procedure on how to reduce the number of mathematical
models to be generated and analyzed. For a PMU count of five
applied on the IEEE 34-bus network, the technique produced an
average total vector error was 0.0001 p.u. which translates to an
error spread of 0.00370 p.u. and 0.08039 degrees.
Index Terms—state estimation, pmu placement, linear regres-
sion
wherein V and I are voltage and current magnitudes,
respectively. X and R refer to the conductor’s reactance and
resistance, respectively. δ signifies the voltage angle while φ
is the power factor angle.
However, single-PMU estimation hinges on the branch
currents, whether measured or computed. Potential errors may
also arise since any error in previous computations will be
passed on. Without elaboration regarding extending the use of
Equations 1 and 2 to a practical power system, it is possible
that additional PMUs or other data may be needed to extend
the reach of this technique.

I. I NTRODUCTION B. Incorporating other measurements

PMU data can be augmented by other data for state estima-
A typical electric power system consists of interconnected
tion, such as load forecasts [10], [11]. Another data that can
components, such as the generation system, transmission net-
be incorporated to PMU data are measurements of a SCADA
work, and distribution network. With a large electric power
system. Various techniques can be applied to utilize both PMU
network, electric power operators need to know the states of
and SCADA data. One technique is to use a hybrid state
the system at any point in time. Additional complexities within
estimator [12]–[17]. A hybrid state estimator fuses SCADA
the system may also include distributed generation [1]–[3],
and PMU data to perform a single stage state estimation.
load growth and variations [4], [5], and fluctuations [6], [7]
Multi-stage state estimation [18]–[21]. was also done such that
Without the capability to install a metering device on every
it can leave an existing SCADA software intact while utilizing
node, state estimation is explored instead.
the fast measurements from PMUs [21].
Phasor measurement units (PMUs) are already being incor-
However, pseudo-measurements are considered incorrect
porated in some power measurements systems due to their
measurements [20] due to having slower sampling rates
ability to record large amounts of data twice per cycle [8].
[15] and asynchronous data arrival, leading to pseudo-
Also, PMUs have the ability to record data synchronously
measurements de-weighting [17] whenever data is not aligned
since these devices can be synced and the data can be time-
with PMU data. It was mentioned in Section I how fast a
stamped using a GPS, hence the term synchrophasors. This
PMU can record data. This implies that most of the time,
eases the processing of the data, since data alignment with
pseudo-measurements are not aligned with the PMU data. Due
respect to time is being addressed.
to pseudo-measurement de-weighting, it makes sense to utilize
II. R ELATED W ORK purely PMU data for state estimation.
With limited investment, the objective is to develop an C. PMU-only State Estimation
effective state estimator with few PMUs in strategic locations. Currently, there are limited researches considering PMU-
A. Single PMU only state estimation [22] but still, it can be done. It was based
on the assumption that a PMU, being a measurement device,
An argument was presented that a single PMU will be
is still prone to measurement errors. Equation 3 shows how
enough already to perform state estimation [9] using Equations
the measurement and actual phasor behave,
1 and 2.
Z =U + (3)
Vi sin δi − Ii (Xi,j cos φi − Ri,j sin φi )
tan δj = (1) wherein U is a vector of true values of the measurements, 
Vi cos δi − Ii (Ri,j cos φi + Xi,j sin φi )
is an error vector induced by measurement, and Z is the vector
Vi cos δi − Ii (Ri,j cos φi + Xi,j sin φi ) of recorded measurements. Equation 3 may be re-formulated
Vj = (2) into Equation 4,
cos δj

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 Proceedings of TENCON 2018 - 2018 IEEE Region 10 Conference (Jeju, Korea, 28-31 October 2018)

U = GZ (4)
   
Ma Pa
such that the estimation procedure becomes non-iterative M =  Mb  P =  Pb 
making it fast. Also, G remains constant when no network Mc Pc
topological change occurs. This approach is considered robust
(6)
   
even with bad data present. Mα,1 Pα,1
 Mα,2   Pα,2 
Mα =  .  Pα =  . 
   
III. M ETHODOLOGY
 ..   .. 
The entire technique was broken into several blocks and are Mα,n Pα,n
connected as shown on Algorithm 1.

Algorithm 1 Methodology Flowchart wherein α signifies which phase (a, b, or c) the value
is associated with while n is the number of buses with
measurements or to be estimated. Assume that w buses are to
be estimated and y buses provide information for estimation.
Sact will have a length of 6y, while Sest and  will have a
length of 6w. The dimension of C will be 6w × 6y.

C. Evaluation
Average total vector error (TVE) was used as the main
performance metric to evaluate the mathematical models. TVE
was used as the main performance metric since TVE reconciles
magnitude error and angular offset into a single error value.
A visual representation of TVE is shown in Figure 1.
A. Load Flow Simulations and Dataset Generation
Power flow calculations was done to generate the dataset
to be used for analysis. For every iteration of the load flow
analysis, the nominal active power was changed as a factor
of the peak power demand and the load level based on load
profiles [23] having a resolution of one minute. In order to
accommodate load variability, a Gaussian error with standard
deviation of 25% was introduced. The power factor was lim-
ited between 70-100% lagging. The power flow calculations,
however, did not take into account line outages, possible faults,
and bad data.
B. Regression Analysis and Mathematical Model
The overall dataset was divided into two subsets—70% for
generating the linear regression models, while the remaining
30% was used to validate the models and extract performance
metrics. Forward stepwise linear regression was the backbone
of the regression analysis. Forward direction, starting from
the intercept only, was selected to minimize the number of Fig. 1: Graphical Representation of TVE
features per model while minimizing the Bayesian Information
Criterion value [24]. In Figure 1, assume that Vact is the correct measurement
The general form of the model is shown in Equation 5, vector. TVE defines the radius wherein the estimated vector is
located, as shown by the circle. The error vector err leads us
Sest = CSact +  to the estimate vector Vest . A smaller TVE makes the estimate
   
Mest Mact (5) vector closer to the actual vector.
=C +
Pest Pact Average TVE is computed as shown in Equation 7,
wherein Sest is the estimate vector, while Sact is the
Pk ~ ~i,est |
measurement vector. C is the corresponding coefficient matrix. i=1 |Vi,act −V
 is the error vector. Both S matrices contain the magnitude T V Eave = (7)
k
vector M , and angle vector P . Equation 6 further breaks down
the M and P matrices, where k is the number of instances.

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 Proceedings of TENCON 2018 - 2018 IEEE Region 10 Conference (Jeju, Korea, 28-31 October 2018)

D. PMU Placement Algorithm 2 Flowchart of Incremental PMU Decrease Tech-

nique
Candidate placement buses were identified first to minimize
immediately the number of potential placement schemes,
thereby, reducing the number of models generated and an-
alyzed. The following rules were used to identify candidate
buses, along with some justification.
• A PMU must always be placed at the substation.

– The substation PMU will act as a reference for all

the other PMUs.
• A 3-phase bus with a 3-phase load is a candidate for
PMU placement.
• A 3-phase bus that has no 3-phase load (dual/single-phase
loads or zero injection buses) may be candidate for PMU
placement if,
– said bus leads to more than one bus (upstream to
downstream direction),
– said bus is adjacent to a distributed load, but not
adjacent to a declared candidate.
Assume a system has x buses, and are left with y candidate
buses. If all possible models considering PMU placement and
count will be generated, the total number of models mexh to
be generated is
of candidate buses for PMU placement was shrank down to
y
mexh = 2 − (y + 1) (8) 18. Figure 2 shows the OpenDSS IEEE 34-bus network, with
the candidate buses highlighted.
To address the exhaustive placement’s time complexity, the
study implemented an incremental PMU decrease technique. A. Number of Models Required and Placement
To do this, start by having a placement scheme of z PMUs From the data shown by Table I, the benefit of applying the
equal to y candidate buses. After extracting some performance developed technique can be seen in that the number of models
metrics, decrease z by 1, becoming y − 1. This means that, generated, and validated was significantly reduced.
exhaustively, y − 1 PMU placement combinations are possible
for this PMU count. The PMU placement that generates the TABLE I: Comparison of Total Number of Possible Models
best performance metric signifies two things. The candidate Technique Applied Total Combinations
bus left without a PMU and included in the estimate is better Incremental PMU Decrease 153
off estimated than having its values used for estimation. This Exhaustive 262,125
means that said bus will be removed from the candidate
bus list. The procedure was repeated until z = 2, which is After analyzing the 153 models, the optimal PMU place-
the lower limit for the number of PMUs since a substation ment per PMU count was determined. Table II shows where
PMU must always be present making it necessary for another to add a PMU given a PMU count. It is implied that PMUs
PMU within the system. Algorithm 2 shows visually how the should also be placed on prior locations.
technique was done.
The PMU removal was assumed to be correct for all B. Overall Results
subsequent cases to minimize the number of passes required. Figure 3 shows that there is a significant decrease in average
Given y buses, using this method lowered the number of error generated between a PMU count of two to five. The
possible models mdec to errors start to saturate upon reaching a PMU count of five,
with a T V Eave of 0.0001 p.u. and average angular offset of
y(y − 1)
mdec = (9) 0.002◦ .
2
Subqsequent analysis looked only at PMU counts of two
IV. R ESULTS AND A NALYSIS to five, as it is in those PMU counts that we see significant
The technique was applied to the IEEE 34-bus network [25], changes in TVE.
as it is represented in OpenDSS [26]. Revisions present in the Figure 4 further visualizes the values presented in Figure
OpenDSS representation of the IEEE 34-bus network are the 3. The black dot in the middle represents the tip of an
inclusion of an additional sourcebus, and having the distributed actual phasor. From there, it can be noticed that the estimates
loads as actual buses since OpenDSS cannot handle distributed computed using a 2-PMU setup has a magnitude error ranging
loads. Using the rules mentioned in Section III-D, the number from −0.08 to 0.06 p.u., and angular offset ranging from

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Fig. 2: OpenDSS IEEE 34-bus Network with Candidate Buses Highlighted

TABLE II: Placement Locations with PMU Count

PMU Count Add PMU at
2 836
3 890
4 816
5 808
6 830
7 832
8 848
9 824
10 844
11 858
12 802
13 846
14 854
15 860
16 828
17 834
18 840 Fig. 4: Error Spread Around Actual Phasor

−2 to 1.5 degrees. The error range decreases significantly as

Fig. 3: Average Error Plots
additional PMUs are added to the network.
C. Branch Power Flow Calculations
From the actual and estimated voltages, branch currents
were computed. The computed branch currents were used
along side the actual and/or estimated voltages to perform
branch power flow calculations. Power flow calculations was
done since voltage estimate errors will propagate and magnify
into the calculations. Branch power flow was conducted on
line 854-852 since it is connected to buses that were estimated
when two to five PMUs are considered. The graphs shown in
Table III show the branch power flow analysis conducted on
line 854-852. On these graphs, the x-axis pertains to the branch
power flow computed from actual voltages while the y-axis
pertains to the branch power flow computed from estimated
voltages. In an ideal situation, the estimated power flow should
be equal to the actual power flow, and should follow an identity
line. Table III show that the estimates were able to give an
accurate power flow computation on line 854-852, when using

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TABLE III: Branch Power Flow on Line 854-852

PMU Count P Q S

four or five PMUs as shown by their behavior mimicking
the identity line. Implementing the 3-PMU setup causes the
estimates to veer away from the actual values. In the 2-PMU
setup, it can be seen that the estimates cannot clearly track
the actual values, especially when the power flowing is close
to either minimum or maximum.
V. C ONCLUSIONS AND R ECOMMENDATION
PMU technology has unlocked a multitude of possible
applications due to its inherent capabilities. This paper has
addressed two things–PMU placement and state estimation.
The results show that even with minimal information, a PMU-
only state estimator based on linear regression was able to
perform well.
It was discussed that generating the mathematical model
with the best metric metric is time-consuming, which is why
a procedure was designed to limit the number of placement
combinations. In future studies, performing and generating
state estimation models for all possible PMU count and
location may be looked into.
The procedure will be replicated on an actual power system
distribution network to determine the nuances of the overall
technique.
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