Date: 1 February, 2020

The Daily Viewpoint

BRACE FOR A FALL AS DOW TUMBLES 600 POINTS

DOMESTIC INDICES
The Nifty is likely to open sharply lower in response to the
Close Points % Change
overnight tumbling of the U.S. indices as Trump declared a
SENSEX 40723 -190 -0.47
U.S. public health emergency in response to the
NIFTY 11962 -74 -0.61 coronavirus outbreak in China, ordering up to a 14-day
MIDCAP 15462 -94 -0.61 quarantine for citizens returning from China’s Hubei
SMALL CAP 14668 -36 -0.24 province and denying entry to some foreigners.

SECTORAL INDICES Budget takes a back seat this morning in the opening
trade as our markets will react to the global worries of the
Close Points % Change Coronavirus that is feared to cut global economic growth.
REALTY 2526 27 1.09
CD 26147 279 1.08 This will not only cut production but also slow the services
BANKEX 35289 243 0.69 as people tend to avoid face to face contacts as much
Finance 6847 8 0.12 possible in such infectious breakouts.
CG 17462 -132 -0.75
TECK 7912 -72 -0.90 Fortunately for us, the Rest of the global markets, barring
Healthcare 13957 -134 -0.95 the Middle East ones, are closed today.
AUTO 18161 -210 -1.14
IT 15871 -197 -1.23 So we will have pay attention to our markets only.
POWER 1899 -35 -1.81
METAL 9494 -226 -2.32 As the Nifty had closed below the 12,000 mark Friday
OIL & GAS 13924 -379 -2.65 at 11,962, it is on a weak wicket. It could easily cut
through this support like knife in mellowed butter. The
BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS next reasonable support is at 11,800 but a one that is
reasonably strong is the 200 day Simple Moving Average
GAINERS % LOSERS % at 11,655.
CROMPTON 6.19 BEL -10.02
ALKEM 4.20 MARICO -6.75 A risk that will still be there after the budget is that the
CASTROLIND 4.16 OIL -5.99 Chinese markets would open with a sharp downward gap
DMART 3.99 ONGC -5.80 on Monday when they re-open after Lunar holidays. So
KOTAKBANK 3.87 TATAMOTORS -5.16 one cannot heave a sigh of relief even after the budget is
out of the way.

ADVANCE/DECLINES We had suggested buying the 12,000 Feb 6 Put for the
budget uncertainty and 12,000 Feb 27 Put for a longer
BSE %
protection.
ADVANCES 978 38
DECLINES 1426 56 The weekly Put, which was quoting at 140 on Thursday,
UNCHANGED 164 6 opened around 100 in the opening trade and closed at
170. As the markets open sharply lower, this will give you
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY ample opportunities to book huge profits in the Puts
bought.
Rs Cr 31/01/20 30/01/20 Feb Total
FII -4179 -962 -4179(prov.)
MF 3816 292 3816(prov.)

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 The Daily Viewpoint

GLOBAL INDICES Since these were bought essentially for protection, one
can let them stay uncovered, as the Monday risk is still
Close Points % Chg there.
DOW JONES 28256 -603.41 -2.09
S & P 500 3226 -58.14 -1.77 Don’t take Bank Nifty’s rise on Face Value. Out of the
NASDAQ 9151 -148.00 -1.59 186 points that the Bank Nifty rose, 177 points were
FTSE 7286 -95.95 -1.30 attributed to Kotak Bank alone.
CAC 5806 -65.43 -1.11
DAX 5791 -78.13 -1.33 The morning fall that could be attributed to the virus
would take the sting out of the higher fiscal deficit that
may be projected in the budget.
EXCHANGE RATES
HUL Q3 PAT grew 12% to Rs 1,616 crore, volume
growth at 5%
Value % Change Hindustan Unilever reported 12 percent yoy rise in
USD/INR 71.6 0.20 standalone profit at Rs 1,616 crore for the December
EURO/USD 1.109 0.57 quarter compared with Rs 1,444 crore in the same
USD/GBP 1.321 0.86 quarter last year.
USD/JPY 108.4 -0.52
Sales for the quarter rose 3.6 percent to Rs 9,696 crore
from Rs 9,357 crore in the year-ago period. Volume
COMMODITIES growth for the quarter came in at 5 percent.

EBITDA increased 19 percent to Rs 2,445 crore.

Value %
Chairman and MD Sanjiv Mehta said that the
Gold ($ / Oz) 1588.7 0.33
environment reflected a sharp slowdown in rural and
Silver ($ / Oz) 18.0 0.19 discretionary spending.
Crude Oil Futures 51.6 -1.00
Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 56.7 -1.19 ITC Q3 Profit increased 29% to Rs 4,142 crore,
ITC said that its gross revenue went up 5% to Rs
BOND YIELD 11,912.2 crore for the third quarter ended December
31, compared with the same period last year, which the
company attributed to the hotel, agriculture and non-
Value % Chg bps
cigarette FMCG businesses. The company’s net profit
IND10 Yr Bond Yield 6.60 4 for the period was up by 29% at Rs 4,141.9 crore
beating street estimates.
ADR
The tax expenses for the quarter include a credit of Rs
Value $ % 340 crore. This is after ITC exercised an option
Dr Reddys Labs 43.68 -1.06 permitted under Section 115BAA of the Income-tax Act,
HDFC Bank 57.28 -0.47 whereby deferred tax liabilities (net) as at March 31,
ICICI Bank 14.58 -1.02 2019 (arising mainly on account of the company’s Make
Tata Motors 12.13 -7.33 in India investments) and the estimate of tax expense
Wipro 3.63 -1.89 for the ongoing fiscal year were re-measured.
Vedanta Ltd 7.90 -0.75
INFOSYS 10.96 -0.90

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Excluding the lifestyle retailing business, the FMCG business revenue was up by 6.1% with most major
categories recording steady growth. The business improved its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation
and amortization (EBITDA) by over 47% at Rs 255.8 crore.

SBI Q3 net jumped 41% to Rs 5,583 crore; asset quality shows big improvement
State Bank of India registered 41.2 percent yoy rise in standalone profit at Rs 5,583.4 crore for the quarter
ended December 31. This is the highest ever quarterly profit recorded by the bank.

Asset quality of the country’s largest lender by assets improved with gross non-performing assets falling to
6.94 percent in the December quarter against 8.71 percent in the corresponding period last year. The figure
stood at 7.19 percent in the sequential quarter.
Net interest income (NII) increased 22.4 percent to Rs 27,778 crore during the quarter.

In absolute terms, gross NPAs declined to Rs 1.59 lakh crore from Rs 1.88 lakh crore. Likewise, net NPAs
eased to Rs 58,248 crore from 80,943 crore during the period.

US FDA clears the Divis’ unit-II in Andhra Pradesh

Divis’ Labs Unit-II at Village Chippada, Bheemunipatnam District, Andhra Pradesh had an inspection by the US
Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) from 27 January, 2020 to 31 January, 2020. The inspection has been
concluded with no "483" observations.

Castrol India Q4 net profit rises 28% to Rs 271 cr

Castrol India reported 28 percent increase in its profit after tax (PAT) at Rs 271.3 crore for the fourth quarter
ended December 31, 2019.

Total income declined to Rs 1,028 crore for the quarter from Rs 1,059 crore in the year-ago period.

For the year ended December 2019, the company made PAT of Rs 827.4 crore as compared to Rs 708.3 crore
in 2018.

Total income stood at Rs 3,941.6 crore for last year, compared with Rs 3,988.9 crore in 2018. The company
follows a January-December financial year.

Power Grid Corp Q3FY20 net profit rises 14%

Power Grid Corporation of India reported 13.90% rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 2672.03 crore in Q3
December 2019 as compared to Rs 2345.97 crore reported in the same period last year.

Profit before tax and regulatory deferral account balances was almost flat at Rs 3,135.97 crore in Q3
December 2019 as against Rs 3,142.22 crore in Q3 December 2018.

Revenue from operations rose 7.20% to Rs 9364.36 crore in Q3 December 2019 from Rs 8735.75 crore in Q3
December 2018. Revenues from the transmission segment stood at Rs 8857.92 (up 2.31% YoY), consultancy
segment were at Rs 144.01 (up 205.88% YoY) and those of telecom segment stood at Rs 197.97 crore (up
0.91% YoY).

Total tax expenses of the corporation have come down sharply in the December quarter to Rs 826.03 crore,
down by 45.12% from Rs 1505.18 crore in Q3 December 2018.
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 The Daily Viewpoint

Tech Mahindra Q3 net profit slips 5% YoY to Rs 1,146 crore, revenue up 8%

Tech Mahindra recorded 5 percent yoy decline in its consolidated net profit at Rs 1,145.9 crore for the
quarter.

Revenue from operations stood at Rs 9,654.6 crore, up 8 percent against Rs 8,943.7 crore in the
corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.

(EBITDA) stood Rs 1,563 crore, up 4.2 per cent QoQ while margins slipped by 30bps QoQ to 16.2 per cent.
Total headcount during the quarter stood at 1,30,839, down 683 QoQ.

The company also announced the acquisition of 70 percent stake in Bangalore headquartered Cerium
Systems. Cerium will boost the company’s Engineering Services practice in VLSi (Very Large Scale Integration)
and Embedded Software, Tech Mahindra said in its press release.

Vedanta profit rises 49% to Rs 2,348 crore in December quarter

Vedanta reported 49.1 percent rise in its consolidated profit at Rs 2,348 crore for the December 2019
quarter, on the back of lower expenses.

However, the company had posted a decline in consolidated income at Rs 22,007 crore in the October-
December period, over Rs 25,067 crore in the year-ago period.

The company's net debt stood at Rs 23,384 crore in the quarter, higher by Rs 3,303 crore as compared to that
in the September 2019 quarter.

Vedanta also announced the acquisition of Ferro Alloys Corporation Ltd (FACOR) for a total consideration of
Rs 280 crore.

Narayana Hrudayalaya Q3 FY20 PAT surged to Rs 31.4cr

Consolidated income grew 7.3% yoy to Rs 785.2cr for Q3 FY20 as compared to Rs 7,321 mn in the
corresponding period of the previous year.

Consolidated EBITDA stood at Rs 108.2cr, reflecting a margin of 13.8% as against Rs. 81.2cr in Q3 FY19.
Company reported Rs 31.4cr PAT for the quarter as against Rs 12.7cr a year ago.

Key U.S. Indices

Dow 28,256 -603 - 2.09%

S&P 500 3,226 - 58 -1.77%

Nasdaq 9,151 -148 -1.59%

Wall Street Tumbles As Trump Declares Public Health Emergency

Key U.S. Indices plummeted Friday, with the Dow and S&P 500 index recording their biggest one day falls
since August, as fears that Chinese coronavirus epidemic would slow economic growth rattled Wall Street.

The Dow tumbled 2.09%, the S&P slumped 1.77% and the Nasdaq plummeted 1.59%.

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 The Daily Viewpoint

Caterpillar slumped while shares of Amazon soared after delivering strong quarterly results.

After all three benchmark indexes saw record highs earlier this month, for the year to date the Dow is now
down 0.99% and the S&P 500 is down 0.16%, while the technology heavy Nasdaq Composite is still up 1.99%.

What happened?
The Dow and S&P 500 index erased their gains for 2020 to date after President Donald Trump late Friday
declared a U.S. public health emergency in response to the coronavirus outbreak in China, ordering up to a
14-day quarantine for citizens returning from China’s Hubei province and denying entry to some foreigners.

Fears of contagion gripped stocks amid growing doubt about whether China can contain the outbreak, with
more than 10,000 cases reported globally so far, and the death toll rising to 213.

The rapid spread of the virus has triggered recession fears as the impact on China's already slowing economy
could spill over into the global economy.

But some have said it is far too early to estimate the impact on global growth and suggested the recent selloff
was a long time coming as stocks were overbought.

Chinese markets to re-open Monday

Another big worry is that the Chinese markets, that were shuttered for the holidays will re-open Monday to a
massive fall and play catch up with swooning stocks in Asia and the U.S.

A plunge in Chinese equities could spur another vicious round of selling in global stocks amid worries that the
global economic rebound expected this year may fall flat due to the viral outbreak.

In addition to disruptions to production, avoidance of face-to-face contact may have resulted in a sharp fall in
service activity.

Coronavirus is bigger than SARS

The latest figures from China’s National Health Commission say that at least 213 people have died and about
9,700 have been sickened.

The number of people infected by the new coronavirus in China now exceeds the global total infected with
severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which killed nearly 800 people after emerging from southern
China in late 2002 and spreading into 2003, but so far the death toll from the current epidemic is lower.

The epidemic will likely cut U.S. economic growth by 0.4 percentage points in the first quarter as the number
of tourists from China plunges and exports to the Asian nation slow, according to Goldman Sachs.

Stocks
Caterpillar fell 3% after reporting mixed quarterly results and offering up a weaker-than-expected outlook on
full-year performance, warning that global economic uncertainty would continue to weigh on performance.

Consumer discretionary proved an exception to the rout on Wall Street thanks to a pop in shares of Amazon
after the e-commerce giant smashed earnings expectations. Shares rose 7%, but were off earlier highs.

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 The Daily Viewpoint

Apple Inc., shares lost 4.3%, its biggest one-day drop in at least five months, potentially due to concerns
about the technology giant’s large exposure to China and its fast-spreading virus.

Shares of Dow component Chevron fell 3.8% after revenues fell short of Wall Street estimates. While, oil
giant Exxon Mobil Corp’s stock, also a member of the Dow, was down 4.1%, after its fourth-quarter profit and
revenues came below analyst forecasts.

International Business Machines l said Chief Executive Ginni Rometty will retire at the end of the year and
would be replaced by Arvind Krishna, currently IBM senior vice president for cloud and cognitive software.
Shares were up 5%

Yield Curve inverts

10-year Treasury note yield slipped to 1.521%, its lowest since Oct. 4.

The drop in the benchmark note’s yield below the 3-month Treasury bill rate inverting the so-called yield
curve, has fed worries that the U.S. is exposed to a global growth shock.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Friday he wasn’t worried the yield curve’s latest inversion
signalled pessimism about the U.S. economy, rather he said it pointed to global unease about the
coronavirus, in a Television interview.

Economic data
In economic data, the eurozone showed the region grew a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in the fourth quarter,
with gross domestic product expanding by 1% year over year. Economists were looking for 0.2% quarterly
growth pace.

Meanwhile, U.S. consumer spending rose modestly in December to cap off a decent holiday shopping season,
but the increase in outlays in 2019 was the smallest in three years, the government reported.

Fourth-quarter employment costs in the U.S. rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter, but the increase in wage and
benefits for the full year of 2019 slowed to a 2.7% pace.

The January Chicago purchasing manager index slumped to 42.9, from the previous month’s 48.9, an
indication of the lingering weakness in manufacturing. This month’s consumer sentiment index reading rose
to 99.8, slightly above analysts’ consensus forecast of 99.1.

Other markets
In commodity markets, West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery on the New York Mercantile
Exchange fell 58 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $51.56 a barrel, marking its worst monthly loss since May.

Gold for April delivery on Comex lost 0.1% to settle at $1,587.90 an ounce, easing back from its highest level
since 2013.

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index which tracks the dollar’s strength against a basket of rival currencies, edged 0.5%
lower. European Indices were again mired in red Thursday. All the indices, were down more than 1% while
the Italian MIB slumped more than 2%.

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 The Daily Viewpoint

DATA & EVENTS

OPEN TRADING CALLS

No. Reco Date Company Name Reco Cost SL Target

1. 14/01/20 PETRONET (E-MARGIN) BUY 276.75-263 259 305
2. 15/01/20 SBILIFE (E-MARGIN) BUY 995.6-965 955 1065
3. 23/01/20 METROPOLIS (E-MARGIN) BUY 1670.6-1640 1615 1765
4. 27/01/20 PFIZER (E-MARGIN) BUY 4273-4170 4100 4550
5. 27/01/20 CARERATING (E-MARGIN) BUY 670-652 640 725
6. 29/01/20 AARTIDRUGS BUY 628.1-606 600 670

NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY PCG TEAM ARE ON REAL TIME BASIS. A TRADING RECOMMENDATION
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED OR SQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET IS TOUCHED IN INTRADAY
TRADING. DO NOT WAIT FOR TARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSE THE POSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FOR
TIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROM RECOMMENDATIONS.

OPEN TECHNICAL POSTIONAL REPORTS

First Second
No. Reco Date Company Name Reco Upper Lower SL
Target Target
1. 27-Oct-19 VOLTAS BUY 699.05 640 600 842 890
2. 27-Oct-19 GOLD BEES (ETF) BUY 3407 3200 3080 3950 -
TATA METALIKS (E-MARGIN)
3. 02-Nov-19 BUY 609.2 580 552 685 745
(Partially Booked)
4. 27-Dec-19 JSWSTEEL (E-MARGIN) BUY 269 242 225 315 340
5. 27-Dec-19 LUPIN (E-MARGIN) BUY 757 700 645 905 985
6. 27-Dec-19 THE PHOENIX MILLS (E-MARGIN) BUY 807 720 670 1010 1120
7. 30-Dec-19 SIS (Partially Booked) BUY 482.5 460 437.5 540 610
8. 2-Jan-20 KSL (KALYANI STEEL LTD) BUY 253 235 220 290 320
MINDAIND (E-MARGIN)
9. 10-Jan-20 BUY 396 370 356 451 480
(Partially Booked)
DRREDDY (E-MARGIN) (Partially
10. 17-Jan-20 BUY 3041 2920 2830 3350 -
Booked)
11. 20-Jan-20 SOBHA LTD (E-MARGIN) BUY 451 425 405 514 549
12. 20-Jan-20 GRINDWELL NORTON BUY 633.6 590 562 729 785
13. 23-Jan-20 MAX INDIA BUY 86.7 82 77 99 107
14. 27-Jan-20 NAM- INDIA (E-MARGIN) BUY 359.6 347 337 388 425

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 The Daily Viewpoint

DATA & EVENTS

RESULT CALENDAR-BSE500
DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY
1-Feb Chambal Fert. Berger Paints Mahanagar Gas Nestle India

Amara Raja Batt. Bosch Merck Apollo Hospitals

3-Feb Glaxosmi. Pharma Cipla 8-Feb J K Cements
Shriram Trans. 6-Feb Hero Motocorp 10-Feb Motherson Sumi
4-Feb TVS Motor Co. SKF India 11-Feb GIC Housing Fin
Tata Global IDFC Prism Johnson
Titan Company Aditya Bir. Fas. BHEL
Exide Inds. Endurance Tech. 12-Feb P & G Hygiene
Firstsour.Solu. Mphasis Finolex Inds.
J B Chem & Pharm 7-Feb T.V. Today Netw. Info Edg.(India)
5-Feb Sundaram Clayton Emami 13-Feb Gillette India

RESULTS ANNOUNCED DURING MARKET HOURS

COMPANY Q3FY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Sales NP
Sales NP Sales NP
(Rs Cr) (Rs Cr)
Bank of India 10898.2 138.2 6.5 -102.9 1.7 -50.4
Birlasoft Ltd 833.3 72.7 47.8 11.9 7.7 78.0
Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances Ltd 174.5 1.1 8.6 24.4 -27.7 -86.6
Coromandel International Ltd 3728.7 264.5 22.3 71.4 -23.2 -47.5
Elecon Engineering Company Ltd 279.5 9.3 2.5 204.9 5.0 -5.1
Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd 2315.2 203.4 -2.6 -24.0 2.2 -18.4
Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd 1331.9 115.8 -6.7 9.0 0.5 -39.0
Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd 835.6 46.4 -3.8 14.3 2.1 13.3
RPG Life Sciences Ltd 94.4 7.9 3.7 49.8 -4.2 -19.0
State Bank of India 71052.5 6532.0 9.5 38.7 5.5 93.5
Tech Mahindra Ltd 9654.6 1110.7 7.9 -8.0 6.4 0.0
V-Guard Industries Ltd 634.4 44.2 5.0 29.8 1.1 -24.7
Vinati Organics Ltd 238.5 66.8 -21.3 -5.5 -4.3 -39.3
PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

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 The Daily Viewpoint

DATA & EVENTS

RESULTS ANNOUNCED AFTER MARKET HOURS

COMPANY Q3FY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Sales NP
Sales NP Sales NP
(Rs Cr) (Rs Cr)
Aditya Birla Capital Ltd 4325.7 250.5 14.4 17.2 8.8 -2.1
AIA Engineering Ltd 694.1 156.4 -0.9 21.0 -0.4 2.9
Everest Industries Ltd 276.6 -1.2 -10.2 -112.6 -3.4 -81.5
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 10103.0 1631.0 2.7 13.0 0.0 -10.3
Indian Hotels Co Ltd 1372.7 213.2 3.7 25.4 36.3 207.6
Paushak Ltd 38.3 11.0 0.6 52.8 11.2 47.3
Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd 9364.4 2672.0 7.2 13.9 3.5 3.9
Saregama India Ltd 129.5 10.5 -17.6 -22.3 -17.8 -46.0
Shoppers Stop Ltd 1019.0 -6.5 -0.6 PL 17.6 LL
Vedanta Ltd 21360.0 2665.0 -9.8 14.3 -2.7 -2.4
PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss

PCG Research Page 10

 The Daily Viewpoint

PCG TEAM

Name DESIGNATION EMAIL ID

Mr. Vinod Sharma Head, PCG & Market Strategy vinod.sharma@hdfcsec.com

Mr. Devarsh Vakil Head, Advisory devarsh.vakil@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Nandish Shah Derivative Analyst nandish.shah@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Vinay Rajani Technical Analyst vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Kushal Rughani Fundamental Analyst kushal.rughani@hdfcsec.com
Ms. Nisha Sankhala Fundamental Analyst nishaben.shankhala@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Dilip Parmar Currency & Equity Analyst dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Tapan Patel Commodity Analyst tapan.patel@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Karan Shah Fundamental Analyst karan.shah@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Manthan Jhaveri Fundamental Analyst manthan.jhaveri@hdfcsec.com
Mr. Jimit Zaveri Fundamental Analyst jimit.zaveri@hdfcsec.com

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PCG Research Page 11